Jump to content

Official 2021 QB Thread


NYRaider

Recommended Posts

Final BayRaider 2021 Draft QB Rankings: Pre Draft-Day

Premium QB Prospects:

1) QB Trevor Lawrence

Grade: Top 5 Pick

Overall Ranking: 1st

lawrence.jpg

Lawrence is the best QB to come out since Luck. Does it mean he'll be a Top 5 QB? Not exactly, but possibly. Although his floor is the safest I have probably ever seen. Should be a bare minimum Top 15 QB. Obviously, that's pretty insane for a floor. Lawrence does almost everything very well with very little flaws to his game. If I had to make a career prediction on him, I think he'll have a career similar to Luck. While Luck was Top 5 some years, he usually floated in that Top 8-9 QB range which is where I could see Lawrence spending most of his time at. I actually think Lawrence's potential is third behind Wilson and Lance, but he still has Top 5 QB Potential, and easily the safest QB prospect with the safest floor in decades. That's how crazy this QB class is... you have three guys with Top 5 QB Potential in my opinion in Lawrence, Wilson, and Lance. And I'd say Fields easily has Top 10 QB Potential. 

2) QB Zach Wilson

Grade: Top 5 Pick

Overall Ranking: 3rd

wilson.jpg

Very talented QB. Super smooth accuracy, very mobile and dual-weapon, extremely smart with high football IQ. Going to BYU and level of competition is a worry here, but not too much of a worry considering how polished he is. He is basically a super Advanced version of Manziel, and way better of a pure QB than Maziel could have ever hoped to be. Mormon Manziel is a very fitting nickname for laughs (although of course NFL would never call him that lol). Wilson is also an A+ character guy as well, probably the best character guy out of all the QB's in my opinion. It will be almost impossible not to root for this guy, unless he's your division rival. It's hard to predict Wilson's career, but I think he won't be quite as consistent as the other Premium QB Prospects. I see years in the Top 10 QB's, and years outside the Top 10 QB's, although mostly inside. 

3) QB Trey Lance

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Overall Ranking: 7th

lance.jpg

I have always had Lance above Fields. His skillset is just mind boggling. He literally has the potential to be a slightly less-fast Lamar Jackson but a much better passer (no disrespect to Lamar). IF Lance reaches his FULL potential, keyword, full, he could be the 2nd best QB to Mahomes. That's how insane his potential is. I also don't think he's as raw as some make him out to be, although I agree he has the lowest floor of any of the Top 4 Premium QB Prospects. He has a very high football IQ, understands things extremely well, knows how to read defenses very well, very fast processor, and makes his own protection calls and audibles every series. I also think his Short/Intermediate accuracy are already good, although certainly not great, and below Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields for sure. His deep accuracy is where he really needs to improve. If he can fix that, and work out some mechanics as well, he has the potential to be VERY scary in the NFL! I also think the 49ers and Lance is a match made in heaven. Shanahan and Lance have the potential to break the NFL like Mahomes and Reid did. 

4) QB Justin Fields

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Overall Ranking: 8th

MIAMI-GARDENS-FLORIDA-JANUARY-11-Justin-

I'd say Fields has the safest floor behind Lawrence, although his potential certainly isn't as high as Wilson or Lance in my opinion. He's a very solid QB who is tough as nails. Great accuracy across the board, great arm, and solid dual-threat. He's also a smart QB who understands the game of football. I do think Fields needs to get better reading defenses and also his pocket presence leaves much to be desired, although not bad. To be fair, his pocket presence from 2019 to 2020 made some pretty good leaps.

Mid-Level QB Starting Potential:

 

5) QB Kyle Trask

Grade: Late 2nd Round

Overall Ranking: 59th

Trask, in my opinion, will have to go to a scheme specific offense to be successful. The New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots come to mind and I think he'd be a pretty successful QB in both of those in the 16-18 range for starting QB's. He likely won't ever be anything special, maybe just maybe, Sean Payton would be able to turn him into Drew Brees-Lite, but I wouldn't count on it. On majority of offensive schemes in the NFL, Trask is a 3rd String QB. If I have to make a solid prediction though, Trask is a backup in the NFL. But, he does have starter potential in the right system. 

Project QB:

6) QB Davis Mills

Grade: Early 3rd Round

Overall Ranking: 67th

Mills has all the tools you want for the NFL. Laser type of arm, 5 star recruit, super athletic, and has a good feel for the pocket. However, boy oh boy is he a massive project. Similar to Jacob Eason last year, although I'd say he's even more of a project than Eason was. Personally, I'd say Mills more than likely doesn't work out (very likely doesn't), but he's worth an Early 3rd Round gamble. If he puts it all together, he has Top 10-12 QB tools. 

Low-Level QB Starting Potential:

7) QB Mac Jones

Grade: Early 3rd Round

Overall Ranking: 68th

A man overrated all draft season. I was already surprised at the beginning of the offseason when websites were talking about Mac Jones as a Late 1st/Early 2nd Round Pick. Then the 49er stuff started and now everyone thinks he's going Top 15 which is pretty insane. I do think Kyle Shanahan's scheme would be friendly to Mac Jones, and he'd make Jones look like a slightly worse version of Kirk Cousins, but on any other team I think Mac Jones is a backup NFL QB with the potential to be a starter in the 24-32 range. He simply isn't that good of a QB Prospect. His Pocket Presence is elite, and his pocket movement is good. However, his arm is definitely below-average, his athleticism is quite bad, his accuracy is good but being extremely overrated, he under-throws way too many balls, and he's not as good of a processor as some make him out to be. 

8) QB Kellen Mond

Grade: Mid 4th Round

Some are higher on Mond than I am, even as far as a 2nd Round Grade. However, I really don't see it. I think he can be a low-level starting QB, but I mostly see him as a very premium backup. He definitely does have the skillset to be a starting QB, and would be a nice selection in the 4th Round. 

Backup QB's:

9) QB Felipe Franks

Grade: Late 4th Round

Little higher on Franks than most. Think he'll be a solid backup in the NFL and can win you games. Great arm and can make all the throws. I'd say he has a small outside chance of being a starter, but I would project his career as a Backup QB. 

10) QB Ian Book

Grade: Mid 5th Round

Little higher on Book than most as well. Absolutely love his grittyness. If your starter is injured, he'll definitely grind you some wins. The guy is a winner. Also a very smart QB who doesn't make mistakes very often. Can also run pretty hard to get a 1st down. I wouldn't be shocked to see Book go undrafted, but I like him. 

11) QB Jamie Newman

Grade: Early 6th Round

Newman is someone I have had pegged as a very quality backup in the NFL for a while. Decent skillset and a lot of experience. 

Gadget QB:

12) QB Sam Ehlinger

Grade: Mid 6th Round

He's no Hurts or Taysom Hill, but he could be a QB Gadget piece at the next level. I also love the competitive spirit that he brings. 

Hail Marry QB:

13) QB K.J. Costello

Grade: Mid 7th Round

Basically taking a big gamble to see if you can clean up a lot of stuff here. Costello has had games where he looks like a Top QB, and other games where he looks like Peterman on the Bills. Personally, I think Costello will stick around in the NFL, but as a third string QB. 

 

Ranking Premium QB Prospect in certain categories:

Floor:

1) Trevor Lawrence

(gap)

2) Justin Fields

3) Zach Wilson

4) Trey Lance

Although, I do think Lance's floor is a little higher than people think. 
 

Ceiling:

1) Trey Lance - Top 5 QB Potential

2) Zach Wilson - Top 5 QB Potential

3) Trevor Lawrence - Top 5 QB Potential

4) Justin Fields - Top 10 QB Potential

Arm Strength:

(All solid, very good arms)

1) Trey Lance

2) Trevor Lawrence

3) Justin Fields

4) Zach Wilson

Pocket Presence:

1) Trevor Lawrence

2) Zach Wilson

3) Trey Lance

4) Justin Fields

Overall Accuracy:

(Top 3 are close, and all elite)

1) Justin Fields

2) Zach Wilson

3) Trevor Lawrence

4) Trey Lance

I do think Lance's Short and Intermediate Accuracy are much better than people give him credit for though. 

Mobility/Dual Threat: 

1) Trey Lance

(gap)

2) Zach Wilson

3) Justin Fields

4) Trevor Lawrence

Overall Mechanics/Footwork:

1) Trevor Lawrence

(gap)

2) Zach Wilson

3) Justin Fields

4) Trey Lance

Pocket Movement:

1) Zach Wilson

2) Trey Lance

3) Trevor Lawrence

4) Justin Fields

Football IQ:

(All very solid)

1. Zach Wilson

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Trey Lance

4. Justin Fields

Deep Accuracy:

1. Trevor Lawrence

2. Justin Fields

3. Zach Wilson 

4. Trey Lance

Best Ball Security/Decision Making:

1) Trey Lance

2) Zach Wilson

3) Trevor Lawrence

4) Justin Fields

 

Fun Top 4 QB's. Can't wait to see where they all go. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed. I have had MANY criticisms of Mac Jones, and supporting cast has never been one of them. I got irritated when people said the same of Tua last year as well. 

Literally all I'm saying.

Stop talking about QBs supporting cast and scout the individual player. I promise people, you can.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Bama had the better oline.  I think the highest pick from LSU was Damien Lewis in the 3rd rd.

Key difference is that Mac stepped into an offense that was already established as one of the premier units in college football. LSU was okay offensively in 2018 and then elevated into one of the best offenses in CFB history in 2019 once Brady showed up and Burrow took his play to a different level. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

In terms of NFL comps / career projections for the top 5 QB's I'd say: 

Trevor Lawerence: Andrew Luck

Justin Fields: Dak Prescott

Trey Lance: Cam Newton/Josh Allen hybrid

Mac Jones: Jimmy Garpollo  

Zach Wilson: Lesser Aaron Rodgers

I'm not a big comp person because guys are so unique, but I'll give it a shot:

Trevor Lawerence: Andrew Luck | Justin Herbert Hybrid

Justin Fields: Mobile Matt Stafford, with slightly better accuracy and worse pocket presence

Trey Lance: 60% Josh Allen, 30% Deshaun Watson, 10% Lamar Jackson

Mac Jones: Kirk Cousins Lite

Zach Wilson: Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young had a baby, but won't be as good as those guys

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I'm not a big comp person because guys are so unique, but I'll give it a shot:

Trevor Lawerence: Andrew Luck | Justin Herbert Hybrid

Justin Fields: Mobile Matt Stafford, with slightly better accuracy and worse pocket presence

Trey Lance: 60% Josh Allen, 30% Deshaun Watson, 10% Lamar Jackson

Mac Jones: Kirk Cousins Lite

Zach Wilson: Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young had a baby, but won't be as good as those guys

Fields is a tough comp because I don't think there has been a player like him in a very long time. Athletically and ability-wise, he reminds me most of Aaron Brooks. But, Aaron Brooks played so long ago I don't think the comp really helps in terms of how Fields will translate to the NFL. I also think there's a bit of Andrew Luck in his game. Luck looked like he played with little urgency, but I wasn't left wanting like I am with Fields when I watched Luck play.

To me, Fields just seems less than the sum of his parts. I do not see a 4.4 athlete when I watch him play, or a next level arm. He's very methodical in everything he does, including his running. There's little twitch to his game which makes guys like Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson so dynamic. I think I saw him play a little faster in the Clemson game, but that seemed to be more the exception rather than the rule.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

In a scenario where Lances goes #3 to SF and New England trades up for Fields, I could see Mac falling down the board. 

Still think there's a pretty good chance that Chicago would move up the board to select him.  Maybe not giving up a monster package, but would likely move up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lawrence- Luck-ish

Wilson- Rodgers-lite

Jones- Brady-like but not as consistent/good but similar

Lance- Allen-esque 

Fields- Newton flashes

Mond- literally no comp because a pro coach is going to loosen him up and turn him into a much more natural thrower/mover. I'm excited about his potential. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Still think there's a pretty good chance that Chicago would move up the board to select him.  Maybe not giving up a monster package, but would likely move up.

We'll give them #17, #79, and #121 for #20 and #38. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

We'll give them #17, #79, and #121 for #20 and #38. 

Chicago doesn't have #38...

Assuming New England doesn't make a move for a QB, you'd have to imagine a deal would have to be struck with Dallas, Philadelphia, or the Chargers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Fields is a tough comp because I don't think there has been a player like him in a very long time. Athletically and ability-wise, he reminds me most of Aaron Brooks. But, Aaron Brooks played so long ago I don't think the comp really helps in terms of how Fields will translate to the NFL. I also think there's a bit of Andrew Luck in his game. Luck looked like he played with little urgency, but I wasn't left wanting like I am with Fields when I watched Luck play.

To me, Fields just seems less than the sum of his parts. I do not see a 4.4 athlete when I watch him play, or a next level arm. He's very methodical in everything he does, including his running. There's little twitch to his game which makes guys like Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson so dynamic. I think I saw him play a little faster in the Clemson game, but that seemed to be more the exception rather than the rule.

Fields reminds me of Steve McNair. Hopefully, he won't have a Jeff Fisher hindering his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I think that a lot of people fell in love with the production. I'm not a huge Mac fan but completing 75% of his passes with an 11.0 Y/A and 56 TD/7 INT is impressive. 

It is, but then we find out nearly 60% of his throws were screens or RPO or PA. Which isn't a bad thing, but it makes that 75% less impressive to me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Fields reminds me of Steve McNair. Hopefully, he won't have a Jeff Fisher hindering his career.

Nah.  Trey Lance is Steve McNair/Donovan McNabb.  Justin Fields is more like a shorter poor man's version of Cam Newton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...