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Official 2021 QB Thread


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On 1/10/2021 at 8:09 PM, Ozzy said:

Anyone delusional enough to still pretend that Mac Jones and Kyle Trask will not be 1st round picks based on need alone.

Well, I mean you said it so it must be true.  Every year, there are more teams looking for a QB then there are actual QBs available.  Either we're in a golden year for QBs, or you're pressing for QBs.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Well, I mean you said it so it must be true.  Every year, there are more teams looking for a QB then there are actual QBs available.  Either we're in a golden year for QBs, or you're pressing for QBs.

Yeah, Trask isn't going Round 1 imo. And I'll be surprised if Mac Jones does either.

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Just now, jrry32 said:

Yeah, Trask isn't going Round 1 imo. And I'll be surprised if Mac Jones does either.

I mean, it wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen.  But if it happens it's at the tail-end of the first round for a team who is wanting that 5th year option.

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5 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

I love his accuracy and quick release but the biggest thing I think that will hold him back at the NFL level is his lack of mobility. I think in 2021 you must have a QB that can be on the move. Even guys like Darnold, Baker, Jones, Herbert, Tua, Lock, Burrow all have better mobility than Mac Jones.

I actually am starting to get Jimmy G vibes from Mac Jones, tbh. 

His accuracy is good, he never misses the layups, but I think that his ball placement could be better. Just in the games I've watched I feel like you can see his receivers adjust often. Maybe that's splitting hairs, but I've said similar about Jimmy watchign him with the 9ers. Every lauded the accuracy, but sometimes I watch and I think, "yeah, that was accurate, but that could have been a much better pass). 

I'm with you on the mobility though. Said something very similar myself in the 9er forum. I just want you to be able to move somewhat. 

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I don't see Trask in RD one at all but I can see Mac Jones sneaking into the end of RD1 or top of RD 2. I don't think he grades out that way but we all know how this offseason can play out especially if he has a decent combine. People just saw him so ball out and that will cloud a lot. 

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Not sure if this has been posted on here yet, but some interesting information in this PFF article in regards to Mac Jones:

"The Bama quarterback has thrown an uncatchable ball on just 18.7% of his 10-plus-yard passes, which is over four percentage points better than any other Power 5 quarterback since we began charting QB accuracy and ball location back in 2018.

Further cementing his place at the top is Jones' ability to limit negative plays. One of the most important and stable statistical measures to quarterback play is negatively graded throw rate, and there hasn’t been a better quarterback in that metric this season than the Crimson Tide passer. Not only does he lead all quarterbacks in negatively graded play rate this year, but he also leads every single QB of the PFF College era.

And all of this success isn’t entirely because he has open throw after open throw. He's actually thrown into a tight window on 15.2% of his passes this season, a rate that is about four percentage points higher than Tagovailoa's last season and is nearly double that of Justin Fields (8.3%) this year. Oh, and Jones has also been the most accurate passer on tight-window throws this season — by a large margin."

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-alabama-crimson-tide-qb-mac-jones-best-in-cfb-history

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, it wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen.  But if it happens it's at the tail-end of the first round for a team who is wanting that 5th year option.

I'll need to evaluate the two more closely, but as things stand now, if I were choosing one for my team, I'd choose Trask over Jones. Trask has a lot more NFL-style tape. He played behind an OL that could be quite leaky at times (especially the right side), which forced him to learn how to move within the pocket to buy time. He made a number of throws throughout the year into NFL windows (that was especially true against Alabama). And the guy lacked a consistent running game this year. 

With Jones, how much does it tell you when you watch a guy stand in the pocket with no pressure and throw to wide open targets? Yeah, you can respect how he sees the field and his accuracy/touch on deep throws, but it looked like he was playing 7 on 7 far too often out there. I know what Kyle Trask can do under less than ideal circumstances. With Mac Jones, how often did you see that? The few times I did, I wasn't impressed with what I saw. 

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4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I'll need to evaluate the two more closely, but as things stand now, if I were choosing one for my team, I'd choose Trask over Jones. Trask has a lot more NFL-style tape. He played behind an OL that could be quite leaky at times (especially the right side), which forced him to learn how to move within the pocket to buy time. He made a number of throws throughout the year into NFL windows (that was especially true against Alabama). And the guy lacked a consistent running game this year. 

With Jones, how much does it tell you when you watch a guy stand in the pocket with no pressure and throw to wide open targets? Yeah, you can respect how he sees the field and his accuracy/touch on deep throws, but it looked like he was playing 7 on 7 far too often out there. I know what Kyle Trask can do under less than ideal circumstances. With Mac Jones, how often did you see that? The few times I did, I wasn't impressed with what I saw. 

Agreed. Not to mention that he also had an elite run game that the defense had to contend with also stopping.

No offense to Ryan Tannehill, but Tanny with a run game working is nearly unbeatable, but when that’s not the case, he looks far more beatable. So imagine if you gave Ryan Tannehill the best OL in the NFL and Randy Moss opposite AJ Brown... that’s basically the advantage that Mac Jones had at his disposal with Bama.

It doesn’t surprise me to see him setting PFF records when he can be made to be that comfortable. He’s nearly always passing with a lead and/or no pressure (pass rush or situational).

He’s better than the 5th round prospect that I saw upon first viewing him, but I wouldn’t grade him anything higher than a late 2nd round guy. Especially considering one of the few times I’ve ever seen him take pressure was against tOSU DL and he fumbled the ball in what was, at the time, a key situation.

Throw in the fact that I’m frequently seeing his receivers have to make adjustments to thrown balls in the short to intermediate spaces (he does throw a wonderful deep ball) and I’m not sure what he offers as a 1st round pick other than hype.

Matt Leinart also excelled when he had little pressure in his face and could throw to guys who had a serious talent advantage over the competition, while featuring an elite collegiate rushing attack... and that USC team would get IMO get dusted by this Alabama squad.

Edited by diamondbull424
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11 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Yeah, Trask isn't going Round 1 imo. And I'll be surprised if Mac Jones does either.

They shouldn't, but I bet they do.

Some people in our forum want us to take Mac Jones at 15...🤢

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9 hours ago, Ragnarok said:

How does PFF define uncatchable pass, negative throw, and tight window?

Negative throws;

 Executing a simple screen pass will earn the quarterback a zero grade, as it is entirely expected.

Missing on the same screen will earn them a negative grade, because you expect an NFL quarterback to make that pass, but there is still room in the scale to punish them more severely if they miss in a way that puts the ball in danger of a turnover, or worse still if they manage to make such a mess of it that they pitch the ball straight to a defender for a pick-six with nothing to mitigate that negative grade.

These negative throws can be important because not all dangerous throws result in turnovers. In the 2017 NFL regular season, there were 288 dropped interceptions thrown by quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford alone had 15 of them, which goes a long way toward explaining why he ranked just 13th in PFF grades with a score of 83.3 despite ranking seventh in passer rating, fourth in touchdown passes and third in passing yards.

 

Uncatchable and Tight window throws make sense to me, but they seem too subjective. They don't seem to give any geometry to those throws...just based on eye test I think. Which is a bit....I dunno the word....arrogant of them assume their opinion is gospel? 

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14 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Yeah, Trask isn't going Round 1 imo. And I'll be surprised if Mac Jones does either.

I think you're underestimating how many teams need a QB or will be in the market for one. I could see them both going in the first TBH.

(I'm not a fan of either).

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14 hours ago, Forge said:

I actually am starting to get Jimmy G vibes from Mac Jones, tbh. 

His accuracy is good, he never misses the layups, but I think that his ball placement could be better. Just in the games I've watched I feel like you can see his receivers adjust often. Maybe that's splitting hairs, but I've said similar about Jimmy watchign him with the 9ers. Every lauded the accuracy, but sometimes I watch and I think, "yeah, that was accurate, but that could have been a much better pass). 

I'm with you on the mobility though. Said something very similar myself in the 9er forum. I just want you to be able to move somewhat. 

The mobility point is a good one. In today's NFL, I really want my QB to be able to run, it's such an advantage. That's one the reasons I'm completely out on Trask. At least Mac can somewhat move. 

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