Official 2021 QB Thread

[BowlesDawgDX]

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Every year we get these types.  Guys with prototypical size and arm strength, and every year they turn out to be nothing more than draftnik hype trains.  When was the last time a part-time starting QB was drafted Day 2?

I remember Ball State's Nate Davis being heralded as the best QB of the 2009 draft by some folks here

[jrry32]

19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Every year we get these types.  Guys with prototypical size and arm strength, and every year they turn out to be nothing more than draftnik hype trains.  When was the last time a part-time starting QB was drafted Day 2?

Typically, when we have prototypical pocket passers who aren't first round picks, they have some glaring flaws. For some, like Kyle Trask, it's underwhelming physical tools (mediocre arm and no mobility). For others, like Christian Hackenberg, it's terrible accuracy and slow mental processing. You have guys like Jacob Eason and Davis Webb who look the part but have no consistency to their games. 

Looking purely at his film, I think Mills is the cleanest Day 2 prospect since Derek Carr. One could make an argument for Drew Lock, but his processing, anticipation, shakiness under pressure, and gimmicky scheme held him back imo. I also disagree with the characterization of Mills as a "part-time starting QB." He won the starting job away from Costello early in his sophomore year and then started his entire junior year (outside of the one game he missed due to COVID protocols). The issue is that COVID made things very wonky this year. In a normal year, Mills would have started 12 or 13 games (assuming his health). Due to COVID, he only started 5 this year.

The guy has ample film demonstrating he can work through three or four progressions on a given play, make NFL-style pre-snap and post-snap reads, throw with anticipation, and throw players open. He has the arm to make every throw in the book. He has enough mobility to not be a sitting duck in the pocket. And his release is lightning quick.

Edited January 22, 2021 by jrry32

[CWood21]

8 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Typically, when we have prototypical pocket passers who aren't first round picks, they have some glaring flaws. For some, like Kyle Trask, it's underwhelming physical tools (mediocre arm and no mobility). For others, like Christian Hackenberg, it's terrible accuracy and slow mental processing. You have guys like Jacob Eason and Davis Webb who look the part but have no consistency to their games. 

Looking purely at his film, I think Mills is the cleanest Day 2 prospect since Derek Carr. One could make an argument for Drew Lock, but his processing, anticipation, shakiness under pressure, and gimmicky scheme held him back imo. I also disagree with the characterization of Mills as a "part-time starting QB." He won the starting job away from Costello early in his sophomore year and then started his entire junior year (outside of the one game he missed due to COVID protocols). The issue is that COVID made things very wonky this year. In a normal year, Mills would have started 12 or 13 games (assuming his health). Due to COVID, he only started 5 this year.

The guy has ample film demonstrating he can work through three or four progressions on a given play, make NFL-style pre-snap and post-snap reads, throw with anticipation, and throw players open. He has the arm to make every throw in the book. He has enough mobility to not be a sitting duck in the pocket. And his release is lightning quick.

Riddle me this, if he's so talented why did it take him so long to become entrenched as a starter?  It literally took a Costello injury to push him into duty last year and he was incredibly pedestrian.  And it wasn't like Costello was some super QB either.  As soon as Costello was "healthy", he returned to being the starting QB.

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Riddle me this, if he's so talented why did it take him so long to become entrenched as a starter?  It literally took a Costello injury to push him into duty last year and he was incredibly pedestrian.  And it wasn't like Costello was some super QB either.  As soon as Costello was "healthy", he returned to being the starting QB.

Why did it take Tom Brady so long to start in college? Costello was great in 2018. Mills, meanwhile, redshirted in 2017 to recover from a high school knee injury and then injured his knee again in 2018. The fact is that Costello transferred because Mills took the job away from him. Look at how long it took for Joe Burrow to win a starting job. And then he was pedestrian in his first year. How many of Mills's games have you watched? What issues do you see in his game?

Look, I think durability concerns are valid. His injury history is concerning. But look at what Costello did in 2018. Expecting Mills to immediately win the starting job in 2019 is unrealistic. But he did play well enough with Costello injured to win the starting job for 2020 and force Costello to transfer.

[MagicMT]

36 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Every year we get these types.  Guys with prototypical size and arm strength, and every year they turn out to be nothing more than draftnik hype trains.  When was the last time a part-time starting QB was drafted Day 2?

Does it really matters that he didn't play much games in college (relative to his draft position?)
I mean, Trubisky got drafted 2nd overall with not much more experience. 
What I'm trying to express is that his physical talent and potential + the spot-on evaluation by @jrry32 will have some teams (WTF/IND/PIT/NO?) interested and willing to pony up a late 1st rounder or 2nd rounder. 
Not sure I'd gamble a 1st if I was a GM but I could see some teams doing it. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

Why did it take Tom Brady so long to start in college? Costello was great in 2018. Mills, meanwhile, redshirted in 2017 to recover from a high school knee injury and then injured his knee again in 2018. The fact is that Costello transferred because Mills took the job away from him. Look at how long it took for Joe Burrow to win a starting job. And then he was pedestrian in his first year. How many of Mills's games have you watched? What issues do you see in his game?

Look, I think durability concerns are valid. His injury history is concerning. But look at what Costello did in 2018. Expecting Mills to immediately win the starting job in 2019 is unrealistic. But he did play well enough with Costello injured to win the starting job for 2020 and force Costello to transfer.

You're not really disproving my point.  If you're looking to the exception as opposed to the rule, you're going to be looking hard.  We're talking about one late round draft pick over a decade ago.  I mean, it's not like he was a non-prospect coming out of high school.  He was a former 5* recruit who went to Stanford and didn't become a full-time starter until his final year there.

The comparison to Burrow isn't valid.  Look at the ridiculous jump that Burrow made from his first year in Baton Rouge to his second year.  Mills' numbers are nearly similar to his junior year number.  Completes about 66% of his passes with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  Burrow completed nearly 20% more of his passes and his TD: INT ratio went from 3.2:1 to 10:1 going from his junior to senior year.  If Mills was even halfway as productive as Burrow was, we'd be talking about him as a legitimate sleeper.

Admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Mills.  After you mentioned him, I checked out his tape against Washington.  I don't think he's overly accurate.  There's not a whole lot of athleticism there, so I really question his ability to extend plays when his OL isn't giving him more time to go through his progressions.  He's not Ryan Mallett, but he's not going to extend plays with his legs much and his footwork goes to crap when he's under pressure.  The lack of snaps is apparent when he's missing open receivers or forcing the ball.  I mean, as a Day 3 pick I don't hate the gamble on him, but his realistic upside is as a backup QB in the NFL.  Nothing about him screams starter.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

To be fair, I said Day 2 picks.  And they both were early Day 3 picks.

You did. I saw the "mid round" thing at the start and just used that for the entire post. my bad

[CWood21]

9 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

Does it really matters that he didn't play much games in college (relative to his draft position?)
I mean, Trubisky got drafted 2nd overall with not much more experience. 
What I'm trying to express is that his physical talent and potential + the spot-on evaluation by @jrry32 will have some teams (WTF/IND/PIT/NO?) interested and willing to pony up a late 1st rounder or 2nd rounder. 
Not sure I'd gamble a 1st if I was a GM but I could see some teams doing it. 

I'm not sure using Trubisky as your example is a good idea.  And I was one of the ones that absolutely BLASTED the Bears for taking him that high.  I thought he was a Day 2 prospect AT BEST and that was because of his perceived floor.  Not because of his legitimate upside.  If you were going upside in that class, you take either Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes.  Hell, DeShone Kizer in the second round was better value than Trubisky 2nd overall.

I mean, if you want to use a FRP on a QB who really doesn't belong in the first round, go right ahead.  Just means there will be more talent available when the Packers pick.  There are THREE first round QBs in this year's draft.  Anymore and it's just overvaluing the QB position for the sake of overvaluing it.

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

You did. I saw the "mid round" thing at the start and just used that for the entire post. my bad

I could probably expand it to look at Rounds 2-5, but I imagine the success rate wouldn't change much.

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You're not really disproving my point.  If you're looking to the exception as opposed to the rule, you're going to be looking hard.  We're talking about one late round draft pick over a decade ago.  I mean, it's not like he was a non-prospect coming out of high school.  He was a former 5* recruit who went to Stanford and didn't become a full-time starter until his final year there.

The comparison to Burrow isn't valid.  Look at the ridiculous jump that Burrow made from his first year in Baton Rouge to his second year.  Mills' numbers are nearly similar to his junior year number.  Completes about 66% of his passes with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  Burrow completed nearly 20% more of his passes and his TD: INT ratio went from 3.2:1 to 10:1 going from his junior to senior year.  If Mills was even halfway as productive as Burrow was, we'd be talking about him as a legitimate sleeper.

Admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Mills.  After you mentioned him, I checked out his tape against Washington.  I don't think he's overly accurate.  There's not a whole lot of athleticism there, so I really question his ability to extend plays when his OL isn't giving him more time to go through his progressions.  He's not Ryan Mallett, but he's not going to extend plays with his legs much and his footwork goes to crap when he's under pressure.  The lack of snaps is apparent when he's missing open receivers or forcing the ball.  I mean, as a Day 3 pick I don't hate the gamble on him, but his realistic upside is as a backup QB in the NFL.  Nothing about him screams starter.

Except his situation isn't exceptional, outside of COVID. He became a starter midway through his RS Sophomore year and then started his entire RS Junior year before declaring for the Draft. As for the comparison to Burrow, it is valid. I'm not arguing he should be the #1 pick like Burrow. I'm pointing out that it's not out of the ordinary for a talented QB to take time to win the starting job and then not immediately blow up as a first-year starter.

As for the Washington game, I respectfully disagree. I thought it was one of the most impressive games I've seen on tape in terms of demonstrating traits and plays that translate to the NFL, outside of Trevor Lawrence's film. As far as athleticism goes, I see enough. He's on par with somebody like Andy Dalton. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

Except his situation isn't exceptional, outside of COVID. He became a starter midway through his RS Sophomore year and then started his entire RS Junior year before declaring for the Draft. As for the comparison to Burrow, it is valid. I'm not arguing he should be the #1 pick like Burrow. I'm pointing out that it's not out of the ordinary for a talented QB to take time to win the starting job and then not immediately blow up as a first-year starter.

As for the Washington game, I respectfully disagree. I thought it was one of the most impressive games I've seen on tape in terms of demonstrating traits and plays that translate to the NFL, outside of Trevor Lawrence's film. As far as athleticism goes, I see enough. He's on par with somebody like Andy Dalton. 

I mean, if you want to invest a FRP into Andy Dalton go right ahead.  I'll wait until next year.

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, if you want to invest a FRP into Andy Dalton go right ahead.  I'll wait until next year.

I'd invest a Day 2 pick into bigger version of Andy Dalton who has Derek Carr's arm.

[MagicMT]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure using Trubisky as your example is a good idea.  And I was one of the ones that absolutely BLASTED the Bears for taking him that high.  I thought he was a Day 2 prospect AT BEST and that was because of his perceived floor.  Not because of his legitimate upside.  If you were going upside in that class, you take either Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes.  Hell, DeShone Kizer in the second round was better value than Trubisky 2nd overall.

I mean, if you want to use a FRP on a QB who really doesn't belong in the first round, go right ahead.  Just means there will be more talent available when the Packers pick.  There are THREE first round QBs in this year's draft.  Anymore and it's just overvaluing the QB position for the sake of overvaluing it.

Not saying this is the right move for a franchise, just that one will gamble on this kind of prospect, just like some team gambled (and failed) on Trubisky. 
I think he's going to be picked in the second round at the latest. 

[scar988]

Maybe I'm wrong here. But I just don't see it with Zach Wilson. Lots of easy throws. Lots of schemed open guys. Lots of bad competition and then when he plays Coastal, he kind of craps the bed. What am I missing? And whenever he goes against any top 25 team, he's either conspicuously missing, injured or plays bad. I don't get it.

[BayRaider]

Seems Jeremiah and I have similar mocks of Lawrence > Wilson > Lance > Fields.