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Official 2021 QB Thread


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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Seems Jeremiah and I have similar mocks of Lawrence > Wilson > Lance > Fields.

I'd take Fields over Lance. Fields's mental processing and field vision scare me, but he's a very talented thrower. Both are boom/bust, but I think Fields is the better thrower at this point.

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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Seems Jeremiah and I have similar mocks of Lawrence > Wilson > Lance > Fields.

That's the way I've got them except for flipping Lance and Fields.  Haven't watched Fields against Alabama, but Fields is more of a project to me.  You LOVE the physical tools he possesses and his athleticism gives him a chance, but Wilson seems more refined to me.

EDIT: Trey Lance grades out similar to me as Jordan Love did a year ago.  There's enough raw talent there that I'd understand going with them in the first round, but there's just SO much inherent risk with those guys.

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41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'd take Fields over Lance. Fields's mental processing and field vision scare me, but he's a very talented thrower. Both are boom/bust, but I think Fields is the better thrower at this point.

Saying Fields is a better thrower is like saying Baker was more accurate than Josh Allen. Lance is a project pick. You’re drafting him for his skillset and potential, which exceeds any QB in the class. It’s definitely possible he’ll bust but his ceiling is worth more of a gamble than selecting Justin Fields, who likely will never be an elite QB.

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@CWood21, maybe if I explain what I saw in the Washington game, it'll become more clear why I'm so high on him. I'll go through the game pass by pass and give my thoughts:

Pass #1 - Worked to the third progression. Made a sound read and threw with appropriate timing. Inaccurate pass. Rushed the throw a bit.

Pass #2 - Looks to his deeper reads first. Nothing is there. Starts to scramble. Finds his checkdown underneath to convert on 3rd and 6. This play highlights one thing I like and one thing I don't. I like his ability to progress through his reads and then find a checkdown. I don't like his tendency to look to scramble when he still has a clean pocket and time.

Pass #3 - Screen pass. Quick pressure in his face. Throws over the head of the HB out of bounds. It was for the best that the pass wasn't catchable. HB was going to get stopped for a loss.

Pass #4 - Converts on a 3rd and 9 with a slot fade. Washington blitzes and has pressure in his face. He identifies the LB on the WR (mismatch) and makes a beautiful back-shoulder throw just out of the reach of the LB. Could argue he should have dropped it in over the outside shoulder instead of going back-shoulder (the safety over the top wasn't in position to defend a well-thrown ball over the outside shoulder), but he put the ball where it needed to be while under pressure.

Pass #5 - Anticipation throw. Threw before the WR came out of his break and hit him with a well-placed ball in the hole in the zone for a 6 yard gain on 1st down.

Pass #6 - Quick pressure on 2nd down. Might have been able to squeeze a nice gain in over the middle if he stood in and risked the sack, but it would have been a risky play. Scrambled out of the pocket and threw the ball away.

Pass #7 - Converts on 3rd and 6 with an out. Anticipation throw. Throws it as the WR is going into his break. Hits him with a perfectly placed ball towards the sideline to beat a really good CB in Elijah Molden. Great zip on the throw. Great read too.

Pass #8 - This is a gorgeous play. It's a NFL play. Mills starts left and comes back across the field to his third option on the right. He feathers an anticipation throw in to his WR breaking between the second and third levels of the zone defense for a huge gain. In the NFL, he'll need to put a little more arc on it, as there are some LBs with the explosiveness to pick that off. But he gotta it just over the outstretched arms of the LBs to his WR streaking behind them.

Pass #9 - Bubble screen on first down. Standard play. Well-placed and great zip. 

Pass #10 - PA TE screen. Well-placed ball. Easy play.

Pass #11 - Quick throw to the TE in a hole in the zone on first down. Ball dropped. Some might argue it was slightly behind him. I liked the placement because it was going to turn him back upfield away from the safety coming to tackle him (better YAC chances).

Pass #12 - Short throw to Fehoko. Wanted the HB wheel, but it wasn't there. Came off it late to throw to Fehoko. A little risky to throw that late, but he had a big-bodied WR and threw the ball with zip to the side of Fehoko that was away from the DB. Fehoko makes a nice contested catch.

Pass #13 - Converts on 3rd and 3. Hits the HB on an angle route between two defenders. Well-thrown ball with precise timing.

Pass #14 - Short pass on 1st down. Don't like the read or the ball placement. Threw with precise timing, but the ball was a little behind the WR and the middle of the field was pretty congested. #81 at the bottom of the screen was the better option.

Pass #15 - Screen pass for the 1st down on 2nd down. Executed it correctly, but it's a standard play.

Pass #16 - Bubble screen. Great zip. Alright placement. Wasn't much there.

Pass #17 - Slant route to Fehoko for good yardage and the 1st down. Great timing, placement, and zip, but it was pretty easy throw because of the zone coverage.

Pass #18 - Starts left and works across the field. Nothing there to the left. Might have had a window all the way back to the right, but there was a corner lurking. With his strong arm, might have been able to laser it in there. But he didn't like it. Saw a void in front of him and tried to scramble. Defender disengaged and started to pull him to the ground. Just barely got the ball out to the feet of his checkdown to save from being sacked. I think he should have whipped the ball out to his checkdown instead of trying to run. Give your HB a chance versus a DB in the open field.

Pass #19 - Fails to convert on 3rd and 4. I like the read and the throw. Had 6'4" Fehoko one on one with 5'10" Molden. Threw a back-shoulder laser high enough that it was out of the reach of Molden. Molden defended it well, but ultimately, the ball was catchable and went right through Fehoko's hands (Fehoko makes up for it later).

Pass #20 - Converts on 4th and 4. Tried to have the TE set a pick vs. man coverage for the slot WR, but the Washington DB played it perfectly. Everybody else was blanketed. Somehow snuck the ball in by throwing to the outside shoulder of the WR (DB avoided the TE pick and tried to jump the route to the inside), which allowed him to spin upfield for the first down. Great contested catch by the WR as well.

Scramble - Dropped back to pass after the spike, scanned the field, didn't like his options, and scrambled for 8 yards. My one complaint is that I would have liked to see him try to cut inside and go for the first. If he gets the first, they have a chance for a TD. Because he dove short of it to avoid a hit, they decided to run the clock down and kick a FG before half.

Pass #21 - Looks left, doesn't like what he sees, scrambles around for a bit (probably unnecessary with the clean pocket), and finds an open WR in the middle of the field while improvising for 20 yards.

Pass #22 - Anticipation throw. Good placement. Perfect timing. Should have been a first. Dropped by the WR.

Pass #23 - Perfectly thrown deep ball over the WR's outside shoulder away from the defender to get them down near the endzone.

Pass #24 - Play-action TD to the TE. Defenders bit on the run fake. Hit the TE in the corner of the endzone.

Pass #25 - Mills threw a little too early on this one, but the CB should have gotten called for holding the WR.

Pass #26 - Failed to convert on 3rd and 7. Nobody had much separation. Well-thrown slant to the bigger WR who had Molden all over him. WR caught it but was stopped inches from the first down.

Pass #27 - Washington had a free rusher on the blitz and covered well. I think Mills should have thrown the slot fade to Fehoko. Washington originally showed a C-2 shell but rolled to a C-1, which left Fehoko one on one on the slot fade. Instead, he threw an in route with pressure in his face to #83, who was blanketed. The CB was able to break it up.

Pass #28 - Failed to convert on 3rd and 6. Mills scanned the field, but Washington had the WRs covered well. He tried to squeeze a pass into the TE (correct read imo), but the placement wasn't where it needed to be and the DB was able to making a diving PBU. Should have thrown it higher and more out in front.

Pass #29 - Converted on 3rd and 10. Washington had it covered well with pressure off the edge on Mills. Mills scrambled away from the pressure and hit Fehoko coming back to him for 15ish yards right before he got hit near the LOS.

Pass #30 - Converted on 3rd and 11. Washington is playing a C-2 shell. Mills has 6'4" Fehoko one on one with 5'10" Molden again. He holds the safeties with his eyes and then throws a gorgeous laser of a deep ball leading Fehoko who makes a one-handed grab while Molden was interfering.

That's what I saw, and it impressed the hell out of me. Full-field reads, anticipation throws, working through three or four progressions quickly, and squeezing the ball into tight windows. Also made multiple impressive throws while under pressure.

EDIT: Here is the link to the game if anybody wants to check my work:

 

Edited by jrry32
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28 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Saying Fields is a better thrower is like saying Baker was more accurate than Josh Allen. Lance is a project pick. You’re drafting him for his skillset and potential, which exceeds any QB in the class. It’s definitely possible he’ll bust but his ceiling is worth more of a gamble than selecting Justin Fields, who likely will never be an elite QB.

Yeah, I wasn't a Josh Allen fan either. That's the point I made in the Rams forum with Lance. I tend to stay away from guys who aren't accurate throwers in college. Plus, I hate Lance's throwing motion. As for Fields, I can understand that opinion, but Lance isn't night and day the better physical talent. I think they're similar athletes. Lance has a stronger arm, but Fields's arm is plenty good. 

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19 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

EDIT: Here is the link to the game if anybody wants to check my work:

Pass #1 - He only looks at half the field.  There's no peeking over to the right side at all, he had the RB open out of the backfield early but that's going to get the RB lit up.  He had #13 open almost immediately and probably a solid 6-7 yard pickup.  Not a sexy throw, but an easy completion.  He ends up going to his 3rd read, but his OT is pushed into him leading to the poor throw.  He should have maneuvered in the pocket to get a cleaner throw, which led to the incompletion.

Pass #2 - Footwork in the pocket is atrocious as soon as pressure is in his face.  With the way he's running, he has no ability to reset his feet and he's relegated to dumping off to the RB which is the correct read given down and distance.  RB needed to make a defender miss, and he did for the first down.  You hit the nail on the head about leaving the pocket too soon.

Pass #3 - Everything about this I absolutely hate.  He lobs the ball back to the far side of the field with way too much air giving the defense enough time to react.  And on top of that, he overthrows the receiver by a mile.  There was no other read here.

Pass #4 - That's ONE read.  The play by the LB there was poor.  Given the fact that the LB was trailing him by a pretty significant gap, he should have been playing the receivers' hands.  Good read by Mills, but an absolute poor defense by that LB.  Personally, I liked that right slot receiver target a bit better.  Has room for YAC and no defender near him.

Pass #5 - Again, one read.  Easy throw, but good anticipation.  That middle WR breaking free was probably the bigger play, but bigger risk involved.  If there's not zip on that throw, it's an INT.

Pass #6 - Correct read to throw the ball away.  I think his TE (#84) that was in the middle of the trips on the right side flashed open and probably would have been a big gain.  Not a bad take, but that it was 2nd and 6 you'd like some yards.

Pass #7 - One read, good anticipation and good throw.  Feel like scheme design opened that one up for him.

Pass #8 - Agreed.  That's his first real NFL throw.  Everything about that looks NFL-caliber.

We can keep going through the video, but I'd imagine we're going to see the same thing.  You see glimpses of what he can do, but I disagree about him consistently being NFL-caliber throws and progressions.  The question I'll ask, where does he belong on the QB hierarchy amongst draft-eligible QBs?

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32 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Pass #1 - He only looks at half the field.  There's no peeking over to the right side at all, he had the RB open out of the backfield early but that's going to get the RB lit up.  He had #13 open almost immediately and probably a solid 6-7 yard pickup.  Not a sexy throw, but an easy completion.  He ends up going to his 3rd read, but his OT is pushed into him leading to the poor throw.  He should have maneuvered in the pocket to get a cleaner throw, which led to the incompletion.

Pass #2 - Footwork in the pocket is atrocious as soon as pressure is in his face.  With the way he's running, he has no ability to reset his feet and he's relegated to dumping off to the RB which is the correct read given down and distance.  RB needed to make a defender miss, and he did for the first down.  You hit the nail on the head about leaving the pocket too soon.

Pass #3 - Everything about this I absolutely hate.  He lobs the ball back to the far side of the field with way too much air giving the defense enough time to react.  And on top of that, he overthrows the receiver by a mile.  There was no other read here.

Pass #4 - That's ONE read.  The play by the LB there was poor.  Given the fact that the LB was trailing him by a pretty significant gap, he should have been playing the receivers' hands.  Good read by Mills, but an absolute poor defense by that LB.  Personally, I liked that right slot receiver target a bit better.  Has room for YAC and no defender near him.

Pass #5 - Again, one read.  Easy throw, but good anticipation.  That middle WR breaking free was probably the bigger play, but bigger risk involved.  If there's not zip on that throw, it's an INT.

Pass #6 - Correct read to throw the ball away.  I think his TE (#84) that was in the middle of the trips on the right side flashed open and probably would have been a big gain.  Not a bad take, but that it was 2nd and 6 you'd like some yards.

Pass #7 - One read, good anticipation and good throw.  Feel like scheme design opened that one up for him.

Pass #8 - Agreed.  That's his first real NFL throw.  Everything about that looks NFL-caliber.

We can keep going through the video, but I'd imagine we're going to see the same thing.  You see glimpses of what he can do, but I disagree about him consistently being NFL-caliber throws and progressions.  The question I'll ask, where does he belong on the QB hierarchy amongst draft-eligible QBs?

I'll address a few of these to make a couple points:

Pass #1 - Agreed on maneuvering the pocket. However, I disagree on looking at the entire field. I can't say how Stanford's scheme works, but in most NFL WCO schemes, the QB picks the side of the field based on pre-snap reads and progresses across the field. If a WR is open, you don't continue progressing. You make the throw. Because timing is vital. We can argue over whether he should have looked left initially or right initially, but that was the right decision with him looking right initially. His third progression was open, and the throw was going to be on time. It just needs to be more accurate. But of the 29 passes (not counting the 1 throwaway), I judged 26 as catchable. A handful of those 26 weren't perfectly placed, but still, that's good accuracy for a young QB against a good defense.

Pass #4 - I agree the slot WR to the right was a safer throw. But he keyed into the mismatch of the LB on the WR pre-snap. Most LBs are going to struggle to defend that sort of play correctly against a WR. That's why you pick on them. 

Pass #7 - That's all accurate, but if you're late on that throw, Molden is the sort of dude who can house it. What that throw tells me is that he's not a "see it, throw it" QB. And that's important.

The thing is that when I watch this game and then watch Lance, Jones, Trask, etc., I see a guy who should be mentioned in the same breath.

Where does he belong in my QB hierarchy? Well, I'd say the tiers in this draft are (the QBs are not listed in any order within the tiers):

Tier 1

Lawrence

Tier 2

Wilson

Fields

Tier 3

Lance

Mills

Jones

Trask

At least, that's my initial gut feeling right now. We'll see how my opinion changes over the next few months. I think I'm lower on Mac Jones than a lot of people.

Edited by jrry32
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10 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Tier 3

Lance

Mills

Jones

Trask

At least, that's my initial gut feeling right now. We'll see how my opinion changes over the next few months. I think I'm lower on Mac Jones than a lot of people.

To me, Mills is closer to Trask/Jones than he is to Lance.  But to me, Lance is also a guy you don't want seeing the field as a rookie.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

To me, Mills is closer to Trask/Jones than he is to Lance.  But to me, Lance is also a guy you don't want seeing the field as a rookie.

To be frank, I wouldn't draft Lance where he's projected to go. Both he and Mills are Day 2 guys to me. I think Mills can be a good structure player in the NFL. Let him develop a bit, give him a good offensive mind, and put him on a good offense, and he can be a net positive to your team. With Lance, he's a project. Could boom (McNabb). Could bust (Locker). But I'm not spending a first on a guy who has so much work to do and feels like a lottery ticket. I understand some people disagree. I'm risk-average with first round picks, especially with first round QBs.

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23 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

To be frank, I wouldn't draft Lance where he's projected to go. Both he and Mills are Day 2 guys to me. I think Mills can be a good structure player in the NFL. Let him develop a bit, give him a good offensive mind, and put him on a good offense, and he can be a net positive to your team. With Lance, he's a project. Could boom (McNabb). Could bust (Locker). But I'm not spending a first on a guy who has so much work to do and feels like a lottery ticket. I understand some people disagree. I'm risk-average with first round picks, especially with first round QBs.

I'm completely on the boat with you.  Most of these QBs go at least a full round (if not two or three) higher than I would take them.  Lawrence is obviously going #1, Fields and Wilson are probably going top 4, and I think Trey Lance comes off the board somewhere in that 8-14 range.  I think there's a chance that we see QB5 go off the board somewhere in that late first round, but I think we're likely going to see Mac Jones/Kyle Trask go off the board on Day 2.

As for your latter part, I think it depends on where you're drafting and what QB you're looking at.  IF you could get Trey Lance late on Day 1, I'd probably jump if I had the right infrastructure in place.

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6 hours ago, scar988 said:

Maybe I'm wrong here. But I just don't see it with Zach Wilson. Lots of easy throws. Lots of schemed open guys. Lots of bad competition and then when he plays Coastal, he kind of craps the bed. What am I missing? And whenever he goes against any top 25 team, he's either conspicuously missing, injured or plays bad. I don't get it.

Scar, I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but I definitely see it with him. If I was picking #2, he'd be my clear choice. In my book, it's not particularly close between him and Fields.

I am going to look like a doofus for saying this if he busts, but he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. He's a guy who can win in and outside of structure. Just has that innate feel that only the rare guys have of where his WRs are on the field and what they're going to do when he's improvising.

He'll take some unnecessary sacks. He'll even throw some unnecessary picks when he's playing hero ball. But that kid will make far more plays where he creates something out of nothing. The positive will far outweigh the negative.

Edited by jrry32
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On 1/22/2021 at 10:57 PM, jrry32 said:

Scar, I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but I definitely see it with him. If I was picking #2, he'd be my clear choice. In my book, it's not particularly close between him and Fields.

I am going to look like a doofus for saying this if he busts, but he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. He's a guy who can win in and outside of structure. Just has that innate feel that only the rare guys have of where his WRs are on the field and what they're going to do when he's improvising.

He'll take some unnecessary sacks. He'll even throw some unnecessary picks when he's playing hero ball. But that kid will make far more plays where he creates something out of nothing. The positive will far outweigh the negative.

See, I don't get that at all. I see Johnny Manziel. But without the off field baggage and less experience in game and a lot more injuries. Has a lot more development to do and doesn't do a good job of reading defenses with disguised coverages. Has trouble with those unnecessary sacks and picks and playing Hero ball gets you in trouble in the NFL more than people want to admit. Lance to me is a MUCH better prospect despite having some questions of his own. Mac Jones is a high floor low ceiling guy I like better too.

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8 minutes ago, scar988 said:

See, I don't get that at all. I see Johnny Manziel. But without the off field baggage and less experience in game and a lot more injuries. Has a lot more development to do and doesn't do a good job of reading defenses with disguised coverages. Has trouble with those unnecessary sacks and picks and playing Hero ball gets you in trouble in the NFL more than people want to admit. Lance to me is a MUCH better prospect despite having some questions of his own. Mac Jones is a high floor low ceiling guy I like better too.

I didn't like Lance at all. Elongated release. Accuracy that comes and go. Inconsistent processing and reads. Manziel didn't have the ability to consistently win in structure like Wilson does nor did he have anything approaching Wilson's arm strength. I graded Manziel as a third round pick without everything about his off the field issues. I have Wilson graded as the #2 pick. They are night and day different in terms of arm talent.

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