Official 2021 QB Thread

[Forge]

Poor @tyler735

[Rich7sena]

Justin Herbert and Josh Allen has made rethink how I evaluate a prospect like Trey Lance. I was really down on Herbert, like many were, and seeing him thrive in the NFL makes me think teams are better equipped to leverage those high-end physical traits than they have been in the past. I usually don't put as much stock into a rookie season as others (I generally believe a quarterback's college career tells you more about him as a player than his rookie year), but Herbert was the best rookie QB I have ever seen and that means something.

Josh Allen is an interesting case as well because his 2020 season was spectacular, but I do think there is some evidence it may have been a flash in the pan ala Cam Newton's 2015 season.

I see a lot of Herbert in Lance when it comes to physical traits. I don't think it's absurd to believe he has a decent chance at being the best quarterback in this class given the right situation.

[jrry32]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

What concerns me about Wilson is that you basically have 1 year of good film, in which he played without fans against the 68th best schedule difficulty in the nation, and has some non major general maturity concerns his first couple of years at BYU.

Yes, you see some of the throws he was able to make, his intelligence/recall, and his ability to see some thing pre-snap that were on film and then manipulate safeties with his eyes, but you don't see any film against elite defensive talent.

While none of this is his fault, I think we've gone WAY too far in cementing him as a great prospect that somehow doesn't have any deficiencies or concerns.

It's funny to me that if Justin Fields would have sat out against Alabama with the rib(s) injury after what he did vs. Clemson, he's likely the clear cut #2 prospect/pick.

I doubt that. Fields's issues were quite apparent long before the Bama game.

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

That's true. But it's pretty rare that a QB goes #1 and lives up to the hype, especially guys that are touted as special prospects. Over the last 20 years the only two that have really lived up to expectations are Eli Manning and Andrew Luck. 

Lawerence has so much hype coming into the league he's going to have to be a Mahomes level player to live up to it. 

Then, he'll fail to live up to expectations. But that's because the expectations are unrealistic.

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

PFF compared him to Derek Carr, FWIW.

If we're talking purely about production, maybe. But Carr is actually quite athletic (even if he doesn't use it well) and, as you know, has a very strong arm. Physically, they're not very similar.

[MWil23]

9 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I doubt that. Fields's issues were quite apparent long before the Bama game.

He's definitely got his issues. He also faced the #1 hardest schedule in the nation. Personally, I don't buy that the kid from NDSU is a better prospect, nor do I buy into Wilson. Fields is a roller coaster, and IMO, his Indiana film is the worst/most indicting of his struggles with pressure/reading a defense/holding a ball too long. Northwestern is also very comparable.

You also have Clemson and about 4 other great games. The good film is elite and the bad is VERY BAD.

[jrry32]

31 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

He's definitely got his issues. He also faced the #1 hardest schedule in the nation. Personally, I don't buy that the kid from NDSU is a better prospect, nor do I buy into Wilson. Fields is a roller coaster, and IMO, his Indiana film is the worst/most indicting of his struggles with pressure/reading a defense/holding a ball too long. Northwestern is also very comparable.

You also have Clemson and about 4 other great games. The good film is elite and the bad is VERY BAD.

I'd take Fields over Lance. Both have tantalizing athletic talent, but Fields is a more accurate passer at this point. I'd take Wilson over Fields. He sees the field better, is quicker through his progressions, and has a special feel for the game outside of structure.

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Poor @tyler735

https://www.nfl.com/news/four-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-saints-trade-up-for-qb-in-round-1

[MWil23]

38 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'd take Fields over Lance. Both have tantalizing athletic talent, but Fields is a more accurate passer at this point. I'd take Wilson over Fields. He sees the field better, is quicker through his progressions, and has a special feel for the game outside of structure.

That's totally fair. I think Field's upside is a lot higher than Wilson, who has a good arm (and not as good as Fields) and IMO it's easier to go through your progressions with that schedule that he faced and looks that he saw (super vanilla IMO).

That said, I totally 100% back the "intangible" metric you have with feel for the game, as I put a lot of stock into huddle presence, leadership, etc.

[Xenos]

Here are some of the "experts" thoughts if you were interested:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/nfl-draft-primer-quarterbacks-fmia-peter-king/

Quote

Chris Simms, NBC, Former NFL QB

1. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young. Best pure thrower in the draft, most explosive arm in the draft. Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits. I think he’s more pro-ready than Trevor Lawrence.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Big, strong-armed, and played in a lot of big-time games. Still untapped potential. Throwing is not as consistent as Wilson or Mac Jones, but has great tools.

3. Mac Jones, Alabama. A machine. Best processor of information I’ve seen this year—the way Joe Burrow was. Throws a perfect spiral that hits the bullseye almost every throw. The way Alabama called plays, you could tell they trusted him more than Tua.

4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Way under the radar. Don’t know why. Third-purest thrower, behind Wilson and Jones. When pocket’s collapsing, can still throw a perfect 20-yard out. I think he’s a first-round talent. After my rankings came out, I had people in NFL text me, “Damn you. Wish you hadn’t brought his name up in the conversation.” Some teams love him.

5. Justin Fields, Ohio State. An Adonis. Built like Cam Newton. Great runner. Some inconsistencies in his throwing—mechanics and accuracy. Too many times when the mechanics lead to throws that aren’t effective.

6. Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I like his throwing and mechanics more than Fields. Wideout-type speed, really strong arm. But there’s a lack of experience, and often looks at one guy and makes a throw. Probably needs to sit for a year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him last till the second round.

 

Dan Orlovsky, ESPN, Former NFL QB

1. Lawrence. Elite fundamentals, elite talent. Untapped potential because of subpar scheme in college. Most consistent high level of play—we take it for granted.

2. Wilson. Omar Vizquel hands at QB. Very natural thrower of the football with the most “holy cow” throws in this draft. Play every snap with a belief there’s a big play out there somewhere on the field.

3. Fields. Physical talent is off the charts. Throws very well on the run. Will have to develop throwing to covered guys. Covered in college is often times open in NFL. Needs to be less “deliberate.”

4. Jones. Most impressive tape of any guy. Makes me say “so well done” the most. Perfect case of traits versus tape. Isn’t fast, but plays incredibly fast. I will know draft night if he’s going to be good (most dependent on where he goes).

5. Lance. Reminds me some of Dak Prescott. As good a deep ball thrower as anyone in the draft. Confidence in decisions. He’s an oxymoron—has a calm restlessness style of play.

 

Mike Renner, Pro Football Focus

1. Lawrence. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Not a Josh Allen arm, not Joe Burrow-accurate. But he’s NFL-ready. Very reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Can be a top-12 NFL quarterback in the NFL as a rookie.

2. Wilson. How much do you love big, highlight-reel impressive throws on every tape? Throws on the move, downfield, from different arm angles. Was not under pressure much. Didn’t play top competition.

3. Fields. Very accurate. For his career, the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever charted. His average depth of target is two yards farther than [ex-Buckeye] Dwayne Haskins. Plus, a legit weapon as a runner.

4. Lance. Probably the most impressive physical skill set of any QB in the draft. Probably the strongest arm, and he’s an excellent runner. Accuracy isn’t what the others have, but you fall in love with what he could be.

5. Jones. Doesn’t have the arm strength or mobility of the others. Might not make the special throws. But he’s accurate, with a very quick release, operated a good offense at a high level of a good offense. Outplayed Tua.

 

Greg Cosell, Analyst, “NFL Matchup” show

1. Lawrence. What consistently stood out was how precisely accurate he was on intermediate and deep throws. Bring the designed QB run game to an offense. Has an aggressive, turn-it-loose throwing mentality. Will be a day one NFL starter.

2. Wilson. His 2020 tape shows a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. My sense is he’s a combination of structured system efficiency with precise ball location and second-reaction improvisation.

Cosell has not ranked the order of Fields, Lance and Jones. Fields has a compact delivery and plus arm strength, Cosell said, but “did not show a natural feel for timing and anticipation—needed to see it before turning it loose.” Lance is “the most intriguing QB prospect” this year with great traits and a live arm; “it would not surprise me if Lance was a very good NFL QB three years down the road once he gains more experience and coaching.” Jones, Cosell said, is experienced with NFL route concepts and RPO, but he was concerned about Jones’ ability “to play outside of structure and make off-schedule plays.”

One more note from Cosell: “Jones is the most fascinating prospect. Almost every coach you talk to says second-reaction movement is almost essential for NFL quarterbacks now. Yet Jones has none and is not a good athlete. It will be interesting.”

 

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network Draft Analyst

1. Lawrence. Such a unique package. When you have that size and athletic ability, and he’s shown the ability to make plays outside the system too. Played against a high level for a long period.

2. Wilson. You’re getting pushback from a lot of folks who maybe didn’t watch as much of him. But there’s a lot of support for Zach around the league. He played the best this season, but there’s a difference between playing the best and being the best quarterback. If he hadn’t had that shoulder surgery [labrum surgery in 2019], I might be having some of Chris [Simms’] courage, putting Zach number one.

3. Lance. Lance and Fields are very close. Both physical, strong, aggressive, tough demeanor. It comes down to decision-making. Lance protects the football, has poise and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. Trusts what he sees. Is he ready right now? It’s more of a long-term play. I believe in the kid.

4. Fields. A little more accurate and consistent, but at times he got a little reckless with the ball. That bothered me. At times, he holds the ball too long. You can speed up your clock, which he needs to do.

5. Jones. Because his athletic tools are limited, it puts pressure on the organization to build up the rest of the roster. You’ve got to have a good offensive line in front of him.

 

Edited March 9, 2021 by Xenos

[jrry32]

48 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Here all some of the "experts" thoughts if you were interested:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/nfl-draft-primer-quarterbacks-fmia-peter-king/

 

As usual, Simms gets an eye roll from me. But I guess there's something to be said for somebody who is unafraid to go against the consensus. But that Kellen Mond take? Woof. Did he just turn off the TAMU games for the handful of drives each week when Mond suddenly forgot how to play QB?

[Rich7sena]

As much as I'm annoyed by Simms' bravado about his rankings, he does have a point about his recent track record with QBs, particularly in 2019 (1. Jackson 2. Allen 3. Mayfield 4. Darnold 5. Rosen). And as it turns out I am also a Mond fan, however definitely not over Lance. I might like Mond more than Jones and about the same as Fields.

[Forge]

55 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

As much as I'm annoyed by Simms' bravado about his rankings, he does have a point about his recent track record with QBs, particularly in 2019 (1. Jackson 2. Allen 3. Mayfield 4. Darnold 5. Rosen). And as it turns out I am also a Mond fan, however definitely not over Lance. I might like Mond more than Jones and about the same as Fields.

People keep bringing up that 2018 class, but  he backed down from that eventually and had Lamar #4 (though Josh Allen was #1) and Rosen #2. He pulled the Mel Kiper stunt where he put him up high in a much earlier ranking, then corrected it and was then able to go back and say, "see, look where I had him ranked!' 

If you go back, you'll see those rankings with Lamar at #1 are from March, but he gave an updated ranking in april with Peter King where it was Allen / Rosen / Baker / Lamar / Darnold 

[JiffyJag]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

People keep bringing up that 2018 class, but  he backed down from that eventually and had Lamar #4 (though Josh Allen was #1) and Rosen #2. He pulled the Mel Kiper stunt where he put him up high in a much earlier ranking, then corrected it and was then able to go back and say, "see, look where I had him ranked!' 

If you go back, you'll see those rankings with Lamar at #1 are from March, but he gave an updated ranking in april with Peter King where it was Allen / Rosen / Baker / Lamar / Darnold 

yeah but then he said that he only changed his rankings because of all of the hate that he got, and it wasn't his true opinion

 

 

lol

[jrry32]

11 minutes ago, JiffyJag said:

yeah but then he said that he only changed his rankings because of all of the hate that he got, and it wasn't his true opinion

 

 

lol

Well, hell, all the predictions I got wrong weren't actually my opinion either. I just made them because of all the hate I got. 😂

[iknowcool]

I will admit, the more of Mac Jones I watch or go back to watch, the more I see the things that impress people so much about him.  For example, this throw is really impressive.  Just the slight movement to maneuver the pocket and keep his feet set to deliver a great throw in traffic.  And he does that a lot.  Not too long after that on a play, Florida sends a good blitz and Jones makes another subtle movement to buy the RB more time to pick it up and quickly identifies the underneath target.  It's stuff like that that makes me think, well, maybe pressure won't affect him as much in the NFL even though we haven't seen him need to deal with it as much.

I still stand by what I said earlier, but I get why people are so high on him.  He does the little things so well.  It's really tough deciding between him and Lance, because you've really got completely opposite pluses and minuses with them.  I think I lean towards Jones (although preferably wouldn't want either in the top 10) because I think you're getting a guy who already has an excellent feel for the position and even though he doesn't have a great arm as far as throwing power goes, I don't get the impression that he can't make all the necessary throws.  I wish Lance could/would have played this past year.  That Central Arkansas game was just so bad.

 

Edited March 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[MSURacerDT55]

On 3/8/2021 at 1:42 PM, MWil23 said:

He's definitely got his issues. He also faced the #1 hardest schedule in the nation. Personally, I don't buy that the kid from NDSU is a better prospect, nor do I buy into Wilson. Fields is a roller coaster, and IMO, his Indiana film is the worst/most indicting of his struggles with pressure/reading a defense/holding a ball too long. Northwestern is also very comparable.

You also have Clemson and about 4 other great games. The good film is elite and the bad is VERY BAD.

I would have loved to see these prospects in different situations. I would have loved to see Wilson/Lance have to go up against the defenses Fields went against, also would Mac Jones have been as good if he played for UAB or Troy?