Official 2021 QB Thread

[NYRaider]

8 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

66.9% and Herbert 66.8%. I’d say that makes them a more similar comparison than some are trying to make in here. 

Herbert made a leap from 59.4% to 66.8% between his junior and senior seasons. As I said in the post above, in Lance's final 6 games he only completed on 57% of his passes against subpar competition. In Lance's 17 starts he only completed 20+ passes once and across those starts he only averaged 10.9 completions per game. 

[Scoundrel]

9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Inflated numbers because of how many easy throws NDSU schemed for him. In his last 6 games he completed 57% of his passes and in the only game he played in 2020 he completed 15/30 (50%) of his passes. 

But you want to compare him more to Josh Allen who had 6.9 aypa compared to his 11.7 aypa. 

[Scoundrel]

6 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Herbert made a leap from 59.4% to 66.8% between his junior and senior seasons. As I said in the post above, in Lance's final 6 games he only completed on 57% of his passes against subpar competition. In Lance's 17 starts he only completed 20+ passes once and across those starts he only averaged 10.9 completions per game. 

He only averaged 17.9 attempts per game. 

[Trojan]

14 hours ago, NYRaider said:

What round do you guys think Jamie Newman will be drafted? He's intriguing to me as a potential developmental QB for the Raiders. 

I think he could go as high as the third, but value is 5 or 6. The transfer to GA and then not play is kinda difficult to judge. I like him as the replacement for Mariota too, but I could see like the Eagles take him a bit too early to back up Hurts and have a pair of similar profile QBs to develop an offense around. I think he will come across well in interviews which is why I think he may go closer to 3rd.

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

He only averaged 17.9 attempts per game. 

Yeah so there's pretty limited tape to work with and the majority of his throws were bubble screens, to the flat, or to guys without a defender within 5 yards of them . 

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

He only averaged 17.9 attempts per game. 

Watch this and tell me you think that he's an accurate passer. Especially at the NFL level where he'll have to go through multiple reads and then make a throw. He won't be gifted 90% of his passes to wide open players or be able to immediately scramble if his 1st read isn't there. 

[Scoundrel]

16 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Watch this and tell me you think that he's an accurate passer. Especially at the NFL level where he'll have to go through multiple reads and then make a throw. He won't be gifted 90% of his passes to wide open players or be able to immediately scramble if his 1st read isn't there. 

I never said he was accurate. My statement is that Herbert could have paved the way for the hype for this type of QB just as much as Allen. Herbert had plenty of easy manufactured throws his senior year as well. All big armed QBs with a lot of questions around them.

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

But you want to compare him more to Josh Allen who had 6.9 aypa compared to his 11.7 aypa. 

Again those numbers are inflated because he got off to a hot start against bad competition and it's such a small sample size. As I've said before when you look at his final 6 games at NDSU once other teams had tape on him he completed less than 60% of his passes and his YPA fell to 7.3 YPA. 

His YPA is inflated because he had a few splash throughs for 70+ yards throughout the season and had such few passing attempts. Just like his accuracy numbers, they're high because he wasn't really asked to throw the ball that much. 

When you look at Lance's 17 games at NDSU:

In the 9 games he had under 20+ attempts: 69 completion %, 11.3 Y/A 

In the 8 games he had over 20+ attempts: 62 completion%, 8.0 Y/A 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Scoundrel said:

I never said he was accurate. My statement is that Herbert could have paved the way for the hype for this type of QB just as much as Allen. Herbert had plenty of easy manufactured throws his senior year as well. All big armed QBs with a lot of questions around them.

The difference is though Herbert played in 43 games, and had 1,300 attempts at the highest level of college football and left after his best year in college capped up off by a Rose Bowl victory. 

Allen played 25 games against subpar college competition and had 643 attempts of tape to break down. 

Lance played 17 games against D2 college competition and has 285 attempts of tape to break down. 

[Scoundrel]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The difference is though Herbert played in 43 games, and had 1,300 attempts at the highest level of college football and left after his best year in college capped up off by a Rose Bowl victory. 

Allen played 25 games against subpar college competition and had 643 attempts of tape to break down. 

Lance played 17 games against D2 college competition and has 285 attempts of tape to break down. 

Again both could have paved the way with being similar prospects. You can be a similar prospect who scouts and gms compare you to without having the same college path. It’s about projection. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The difference is though Herbert played in 43 games, and had 1,300 attempts at the highest level of college football and left after his best year in college capped up off by a Rose Bowl victory. 

Allen played 25 games against subpar college competition and had 643 attempts of tape to break down. 

Lance played 17 games against D2 college competition and has 285 attempts of tape to break down. 

To be fair the bigger point isn’t that Lance is the next Allen or Herbert.   It’s that he’s seen as a guy with the same toolset arm wise and ceiling.    The fact he’s likely even more mobile than Herbert only adds to the ceiling above Herbert.   Their success (and those of other insane ceiling - low floor types) has made it more likely teams go this route early Rd1 again.  
 

The floor is outright bust for all the reasons you cite.    But the success teams have had by going all-ceiling and “fixing” the flaws says it’s really likely someone else takes that plunge as early as top 10 if not top 6-7.   I totally get that.   

Edited March 15, 2021 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair the bigger point isn’t that Lance is the next Allen or Herbert.   It’s that he’s seen as a guy with the same toolset arm wise and ceiling.    The fact he’s likely even more mobile than Herbert only adds to the ceiling above Herbert.  
 

The floor is outright bust for all the reasons you cite.    But the success teams have had by going ceiling and “fixing” the flaws says it’s really likely someone else takes that plunge.   I totally get that.   

Thank you. 

[MWil23]

IMO, it's better in today's NFL with the tiered rookie contracts and rising salary cap to draft a quarterback who has a greater skillset/potential than another guy, unless you're SURE that he's going to pan out, because there's little worse than quarterback purgatory. Sure, that guy may "bust hard", but then you'll likely be back at the top of the draft again within 2-3 years and have cut bait with your previous guy, as opposed to the 6-10-10-6 no man's land that teams like Chicago, NY Giants, Vikings, and Raiders find themselves in.

[NYRaider]

Just now, Scoundrel said:

Again both could have paved the way with being similar prospects. 

i think Lance is more comparable to Allen though as small school guys with limited tape coming into the league. Herbert played a ton of college football and people either loved him or hated him for whatever reason. But NFL evaluators more or less knew what they were getting because they had seen him play a ton of football against the best of the best competition in college. That's one of the reasons that Herbert was able to step in as a rookie and have the best rookie season in NFL history. 

Allen on the other hand probably wasn't ready to play early on and really struggled with his accuracy and really took advantage of his mobility to help the team through his first two seasons. It took him a few years to figure it out and in year 3 he blossomed into one of the the best passers in the league. 

I think that teams will view Lance in a similar manner to Allen as a guy that has all of the physical traits but probably isn't ready to play early on. And if he does there will be some hiccups as he adjusts to the NFL game, has to make tough throws, and learn to read NFL defenses. But like Allen even if he's not great as a passer early on I think he'll be able to use his mobility to still be a threat. 

[Forge]

I will continue to think that Atlanta is not going QB at 4