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Official 2021 QB Thread


NYRaider

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12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I can envision fanbases going "I can't believe Fields/Lance went 3rd/4th in their own draft class".    

I just can't envision the same regret with saying "Mac Jones fell to 5th QB in this draft class".    Even if the guys ahead of him don't pan out, the ceiling difference is so massive.    I get that he's got the perceived higher floor....but in this era, ceiling matters so much.  

I think even Jones floor is massively overrated. Maybe very low end starter in the NFL or high quality backup. 

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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

I think even Jones floor is massively overrated. Maybe very low end starter in the NFL or high quality backup. 

This is the thing I said recently as well. I think people are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over estimating and over valuing the floor on Mac. I remember when people thought Christian Ponder was a safe and polished QB (the type that usually goes in the second round, mind you...not top 15 lol). There's really not anything that makes me think that Jones is a particularly "safer" pick than any of the others. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

This is the thing I said recently as well. I think people are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over estimating and over valuing the floor on Mac. I remember when people thought Christian Ponder was a safe and polished QB (the type that usually goes in the second round, mind you...not top 15 lol). There's really not anything that makes me think that Jones is a particularly "safer" pick than any of the others. 

Jimmy > Mac

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43 minutes ago, Forge said:

This is the thing I said recently as well. I think people are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over estimating and over valuing the floor on Mac. I remember when people thought Christian Ponder was a safe and polished QB (the type that usually goes in the second round, mind you...not top 15 lol). There's really not anything that makes me think that Jones is a particularly "safer" pick than any of the others. 

While I would agree, Mac Jones is a better pro prospect than Christian Ponder.  Ponder's upside is essentially what Ryan Fitzpatrick's career has been.  A high-end journeymen who will start for a few teams and win a surprising amount of games, but he's never going to be a guy who was going to carry a franchise.  And I'm not even sure I'd even put him in the "QB purgatory" QB even if he hit his upside.  He was clearly a Day 2 prospect.

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34 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

While I would agree, Mac Jones is a better pro prospect than Christian Ponder.  Ponder's upside is essentially what Ryan Fitzpatrick's career has been.  A high-end journeymen who will start for a few teams and win a surprising amount of games, but he's never going to be a guy who was going to carry a franchise.  And I'm not even sure I'd even put him in the "QB purgatory" QB even if he hit his upside.  He was clearly a Day 2 prospect.

Sure, I'm not saying he's not a better prospect. I'm just saying that far too often people conflate "polished" with having a high floor. If someone takes Mac in round 1, I have no problem with that. But I don't know that he's "safer" in comparison to the other guys in this class just because he's the more polished passer.

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Prescott's appeal was his relatively high floor.  Didn't think he was ever going to be an elite QB, but probably one of those above-average QBs who could put together a strong career.

Dak was also a third round pick, it's crazy to think that Jerry actually wanted Connor Cook but we took him right before the Cowboys picked and they took Dak. 

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23 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Dak was also a third round pick, it's crazy to think that Jerry actually wanted Connor Cook but we took him right before the Cowboys picked and they took Dak. 

Dak was actually a 4th round pick.  And even if you didn't know their career projectories, I'd take Dak in the 4th round over Christian Ponder at 12th overall without even thinking about it.

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I think Wilson has more arm talent than Rodgers had coming out but AR had incredible development physically while he was sitting.  I think Wilson can get close to peak Rodgers in terms of physical talent eventually.  Whether that means he’ll sniff Rodger’s caliber of playing the position...

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36 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Dak was also a third round pick, it's crazy to think that Jerry actually wanted Connor Cook but we took him right before the Cowboys picked and they took Dak. 

They actually wanted paxton lynch 😂 that was their top target

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On 3/27/2021 at 1:08 AM, Forge said:

Seriously though...it's a legit possibility. I think to some extent, all are somewhat realistic. I'd put it fairly close between Lance and Fields, but arbitrary numbers to represent my feelings on where they go? 

50% Lance

40% Fields

10% Mac 

Almost the reverse for me..

50% Mac

35% Fields

15% Lance

Shanahan is an egomaniac. He has a great scheme and is an expert play caller. His offense creates chunk play opportunities down the field and he wants a sniper that just won't miss. ..or get hurt trying to run around.

Mac Jones is perfect for that scheme. He's a quick processor, and a machine like, in stride and down field passer. He's shown what he can do with NFL talent around him. Doesn't have the upside of Lance or Fields but his projection's less volatile. That trade suggests you'll probably want the highest floor guy available.

Shanahan's earned confidence in his ability to evaluate, even when the consensus liked the bigger upside guys, so if he's sure Mac Jones will be a lot better than Jimmy G, Lynch is going along. Still think Garoppolo starts this year, tho btw.

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So Fields went from challenging for the number one overall pick a couple months ago, to falling behind Jones and Lance?  Lance who threw, I believe @ 300 passes the last season he played against the likes of Southwest Great Lakes State?  I’m not buying it, the Niners are taking Fields. I understand Lance had a nice Pro Day.  A lot of guys have great pro days in their underwear.  I suspect Fields is gonna have one too and put all this to rest 

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6 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

Almost the reverse for me..

50% Mac

35% Fields

15% Lance

Shanahan is an egomaniac. He has a great scheme and is an expert play caller. His offense creates chunk play opportunities down the field and he wants a sniper that just won't miss. ..or get hurt trying to run around.

Mac Jones is perfect for that scheme. He's a quick processor, and a machine like, in stride and down field passer. He's shown what he can do with NFL talent around him. Doesn't have the upside of Lance or Fields but his projection's less volatile. That trade suggests you'll probably want the highest floor guy available.

Shanahan's earned confidence in his ability to evaluate, even when the consensus liked the bigger upside guys, so if he's sure Mac Jones will be a lot better than Jimmy G, Lynch is going along. Still think Garoppolo starts this year, tho btw.

Wouldn't surprise me if Mac is the pick. Would just be Shanny running amok, which most niners fans do expect most of the time. And Mac will be moderately successful too...and then he'll likely have them in a similar situation to the one they are leaving now by the time he needs a second contract. It's the circle of life. 

But man, evolve or die. If you're looking for Kirk Cousins in the top 3, you're doing this wrong. It's okay if you're first round pick ends up being cousins, but that sure as hell shouldn't be what you are shooting for. Andy Reid propped up mediocre quarterbacks for nearly 20 years and could never finish the job. Then he took the big swing and hit it, he's been to two super bowls and doesn't look like he's going to slow down. If Kyle's big swing is Mac Jones, I just don't get it, personally, even if I do expect that pairing to be reasonably successful. 

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