AlexGreen#20 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Football Outsiders describes a successful 2nd down play as any play that gets 50% of the remaining yardage to the first down marker. In order to be successful on 2nd and 10, you need to make it 3rd and 5 for example. Against the Buccaneers, we ran 20 2nd down plays. On Pass plays we had successful plays on 5/11 plays. Rodgers was 6/10 for 63 yards. He did take a sack to end the half. If he doesn't miss Lewis up the seam or MVS on his post route, these numbers look significantly better. On Run (and I'm including Screens) plays we had successful plays on 0/9 plays. These plays combined for a total of 7 yards. I get wanting to be balanced, but what the actual hell??? This is complete nonsense and the analytics despises running on 2nd and long. *Q1 1st Drive 2nd and 10 Screen No Gain. Bubble Screen to RB 0 3rd and 10 1st Drive 2nd and 2 Pass Gain of 12. Pass to Davante on Crosser 12 Convert 1st Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 2. Williams run off Tackle 2 3rd and 8 2nd Drive 2nd and 5 Run Loss of 2. Jones pitch to the outside -2 3rd and 7 2nd Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 15. Pass to MVS 15 Convert 2nd Drive 2nd and 20 Pass Gain of 16. Pass to Sheppard 16 3rd and 4 *Q2 3rd Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete 0 3rd and 10 4th Drive 2nd and 4 Run Gain of 0. Jones pitch to outside 0 3rd and 4 5th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete. Rodgers missed Lewis down the seam 0 3rd and 10 6th Drive 2nd and 3 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete. Rodgers under threw MVS 0 3rd and 3 7th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 9. Pass to Tonan up the middle 9 3rd and 1 7th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Loss of 12. Suh Sack. End of Half -12 3rd and 22 *Q3 8th Drive 2nd and 6 Run Gain of 1. Jones up the middle 1 3rd and 5 9th Drive 2nd and 23 Pass Gain of 5. MVS on the out route 5 3rd and 18 9th Drive 2nd and 3 Pass Gain of 0. Lewis Drop 0 3rd and 3 9th Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 2. Williams run off Tackle 2 3rd and 8 *Q4 10th Drive 2nd and 13 Screen Loss of 1. Screen Pass -1 3nd and 14 11th Drive 2nd and 7 Pass Gain of 6. Out route to Davante 6 3nd and 1 11th Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 4. AJ Dillon up the middle 4 3nd and 6 12 Drive 2nd and 7 Run Gain of 1. AJ Dillion up the middle 1 3ri and 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 It ******* drove me nuts when we run-run-passed in the third down. I get that he was trying to stay commited to the run, but for ****'s sake, stop it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Couldnt delete the table imbedded in your post, so copy/paste the portion I was responding to: "Football Outsiders describes a successful 2nd down play as any play that gets 50% of the remaining yardage to the first down marker. In order to be successful on 2nd and 10, you need to make it 3rd and 5 for example" Wait. Could you run that math by me again? 😃 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Can’t even blame Pettine for this. It’s gotta stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I said it on the GDT yesterday....... We can pass on this team. Now.......... As the game got out of hand and they just started packing the box and BRINGING IT.....that became a problem as well. The pick 6 - that whole play sucked. Just poorly executed. Another of AR's backfoot / putting no shoulder into it soft tosses. If AR was a pitcher in MLB, he'd really be in to the spin rates on his pitches. The second pick - happens. A quick hitter slant that bounced off Davante's hands right into another defender's paws. Well - thats sucks. Bad field position.....terrible moment in the game.....but it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltarich87 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 By far the biggest gripe about MLF and the offense. Was an issue last season as well but the early success of the offense this year has sort of hidden this wart. Overall, this team is still near the top of the league in pass rate on neutral downs I believe, but this 2nd and long nonsense needs to stop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Really wish you would do this stuff after good games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chucknorris101 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Run Run Pass is the worst way to try to be balanced anyway, its even a meme at this point i feel. Especially when you have a front you cant seem to routinely even get one yard on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Leader said: Couldnt delete the table imbedded in your post, so copy/paste the portion I was responding to: "Football Outsiders describes a successful 2nd down play as any play that gets 50% of the remaining yardage to the first down marker. In order to be successful on 2nd and 10, you need to make it 3rd and 5 for example" Wait. Could you run that math by me again? 😃 Half of 10 is 5. Simple math! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Calling a bad game after 4 masterful ones was what he was doing. Really worthy of a thread? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Is this some sort of thing where you trying to force this physical identity into the team? That's how it feels to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: Calling a bad game after 4 masterful ones was what he was doing. Really worthy of a thread? There's a thread for Mike mccarthys Dallas record Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Norm said: There's a thread for Mike mccarthys Dallas record That's because he and Ted Tompson ruined Rodgers prime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Packerraymond said: That's because he and Ted Tompson ruined Rodgers prime. And now MLF is ruining his post prime! /s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Football Outsiders describes a successful 2nd down play as any play that gets 50% of the remaining yardage to the first down marker. In order to be successful on 2nd and 10, you need to make it 3rd and 5 for example. Against the Buccaneers, we ran 20 2nd down plays. On Pass plays we had successful plays on 5/11 plays. Rodgers was 6/10 for 63 yards. He did take a sack to end the half. If he doesn't miss Lewis up the seam or MVS on his post route, these numbers look significantly better. On Run (and I'm including Screens) plays we had successful plays on 0/9 plays. These plays combined for a total of 7 yards. I get wanting to be balanced, but what the actual hell??? This is complete nonsense and the analytics despises running on 2nd and long. *Q1 1st Drive 2nd and 10 Screen No Gain. Bubble Screen to RB 0 3rd and 10 1st Drive 2nd and 2 Pass Gain of 12. Pass to Davante on Crosser 12 Convert 1st Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 2. Williams run off Tackle 2 3rd and 8 2nd Drive 2nd and 5 Run Loss of 2. Jones pitch to the outside -2 3rd and 7 2nd Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 15. Pass to MVS 15 Convert 2nd Drive 2nd and 20 Pass Gain of 16. Pass to Sheppard 16 3rd and 4 *Q2 3rd Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete 0 3rd and 10 4th Drive 2nd and 4 Run Gain of 0. Jones pitch to outside 0 3rd and 4 5th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete. Rodgers missed Lewis down the seam 0 3rd and 10 6th Drive 2nd and 3 Pass Gain of 0. Incomplete. Rodgers under threw MVS 0 3rd and 3 7th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Gain of 9. Pass to Tonan up the middle 9 3rd and 1 7th Drive 2nd and 10 Pass Loss of 12. Suh Sack. End of Half -12 3rd and 22 *Q3 8th Drive 2nd and 6 Run Gain of 1. Jones up the middle 1 3rd and 5 9th Drive 2nd and 23 Pass Gain of 5. MVS on the out route 5 3rd and 18 9th Drive 2nd and 3 Pass Gain of 0. Lewis Drop 0 3rd and 3 9th Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 2. Williams run off Tackle 2 3rd and 8 *Q4 10th Drive 2nd and 13 Screen Loss of 1. Screen Pass -1 3nd and 14 11th Drive 2nd and 7 Pass Gain of 6. Out route to Davante 6 3nd and 1 11th Drive 2nd and 10 Run Gain of 4. AJ Dillon up the middle 4 3nd and 6 12 Drive 2nd and 7 Run Gain of 1. AJ Dillion up the middle 1 3ri and 6 how does this stack up vs other games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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