ET80 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Looks like there's around three of us that said it And one of those three put it at a 3% chance... You're entitled to think what you will, but I'm pretty certain that the HC and GM (that Watson is unofficially picking) aren't going to move him. Likewise, I doubt Watson wants to go when he's signing his own paychecks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, ET80 said: I get it that they're missing picks, but seriously - did the 2022 draft get cancelled or something? Next year will be lean in regards to adding new, young talent. Then... that's it. It's back to normal. That'll be year six of the Deshaun Watson era? It's incredibly overblown on the Texans and their picks in the 2021 draft. Oh I get that. People have been playing that tune about the Rams for years now and we usually end up having solid drafts. But for me it's the combo of missing out on a premium pick this year AND the cupboard being so bare. I won't pretend to be an expert on Houston, so correct me if I'm wrong, but it feels like they need to replace 3 offensive lineman and most of their defense. Free pass next year while the new guys are cleaning up the disaster left by BoB, but after that on top of who they will have to currently replace, it's likely all their skill guys will need replaced or upgraded and Watt will be done. A great example for the road they're heading down is Seattle the last five years - lots of playoff appearances, some wins, but never really a threat to win it all - and to get to that road, Watson will need to get to Wilson's level, which he's not really close to, and Houston will need to get a few other cornerstones. And all that just to be a fringe playoff team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, ET80 said: And one of those three put it at a 3% chance... You're entitled to think what you will, but I'm pretty certain that the HC and GM (that Watson is unofficially picking) aren't going to move him. Likewise, I doubt Watson wants to go when he's signing his own paychecks. To be fair, I only put it at 20%, so I'm not saying it's going to happen. It's a unique situation though - Green Bay would be another example of how a quick turnaround could happen, but I don't think Watson is as good as Rodgers, and LaFleur was able to turn the defense around with free agent signings and early draft picks. Will Houston have any cap space? This is a very unique situation where the owner/coach/GM will have to acknowledge that it might be a 3-5 year plan. That is a long time in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, FrantikRam said: I won't pretend to be an expert on Houston, so correct me if I'm wrong, but it feels like they need to replace 3 offensive lineman and most of their defense. The OL is actually starting to stabilize - Tytus Howard is returning to form at RT, Max Scharping dealing with an injury but is steady (and Senio Kelemete is really improving in his own right) and Nick Martin is finding his form as well. Zach Fulton could be replaced, but Kelemete's Improvement could lead to him jumping from LG to RG. So, the OL is getting there after a rough start. The defense is... well, you got me on that one. Watt is staying, S Justin Reid is staying, LB Zach Cunningham is staying, OLB Jamie Martin is staying and CB Bradley Roby. Rest of it's an overhaul - but that's the case with a new HC, he'll want to bring in "his guys" for spots, and that's where you're going to see FA dollars spent. I'm banking on the biggest name FA CB as well as another edge rusher added. 7 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: A great example for the road they're heading down is Seattle the last five years - lots of playoff appearances, some wins, but never really a threat to win it all - and to get to that road, Watson will need to get to Wilson's level, which he's not really close to I'd say he's a lot closer than you think - especially post BoB, where he's completing 74% of his passes for 694 yards and 7/2. Watson is finding a new level without BoB holding him back. He's a different QB, it's pretty apparent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 6 hours ago, RamblinMan99 said: Really tired of the comparisons to Big Ben to be honest. Allen's not even close to where Ben was at his age. Tbh Ben’s age 24 season he had 18 touchdowns and 23 picks 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Will Houston have any cap space? There's definitely cap space to be had once some obvious cuts/trades are made (David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Whitney Mercilius, Bernardrick McKinney) and bigger cap guys are renegotiated to lower their cap hit (Watt, Brandin Cooks). The salary cap is Monopoly money out there - you should know that by now with the Rams. 14 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: This is a very unique situation where the owner/coach/GM will have to acknowledge that it might be a 3-5 year plan. My take on this - whenever you're in charge of a multi billion dollar organization (be it a sports team, a software company, a bank, etc) you ALWAYS have a 3-5 year outlook. Trying to win TODAY (which is what Bill O'Brien tried to do) will lose out in the short term. The Texans are probably going to go 6-10 this year, and maybe 7-9 next year - simply paying the cost of BoB's short term outlook. By then, Watson will be 27, Tunsil will be 28, Reid will be 25, Cunningham will be 27 - Watt is more or less a rotation guy or retired, but the majority of your core is still very young and probably at their peak in terms of athletic ability and Football IQ. You still have a solid 3-5 years out of these guys, right when you start getting young picks these vets can start mentoring. It's a two year downturn from a two year run as the head of the division - not a fun situation, sure. But not enough of a gloomy situation to trade away one of the top 7 QBs in the NFL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, ET80 said: There's definitely cap space to be had once some obvious cuts/trades are made (David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Whitney Mercilius, Bernardrick McKinney) and bigger cap guys are renegotiated to lower their cap hit (Watt, Brandin Cooks). The salary cap is Monopoly money out there - you should know that by now with the Rams. My take on this - whenever you're in charge of a multi billion dollar organization (be it a sports team, a software company, a bank, etc) you ALWAYS have a 3-5 year outlook. Trying to win TODAY (which is what Bill O'Brien tried to do) will lose out in the short term. The Texans are probably going to go 6-10 this year, and maybe 7-9 next year - simply paying the cost of BoB's short term outlook. By then, Watson will be 27, Tunsil will be 28, Reid will be 25, Cunningham will be 27 - Watt is more or less a rotation guy or retired, but the majority of your core is still very young and probably at their peak in terms of athletic ability and Football IQ. You still have a solid 3-5 years out of these guys, right when you start getting young picks these vets can start mentoring. It's a two year downturn from a two year run as the head of the division - not a fun situation, sure. But not enough of a gloomy situation to trade away one of the top 7 QBs in the NFL... Good point on the cap. The interesting thing about this situation is that it's pretty unique, at least recently - most top QBs have their roster built while on rookie deals and then the team slowly loses that talent while the QB improves and attempts to overcome the deficiencies. Wilson is the perfect embodiment of this. In Watson's case, he is already paid and the roster is not good - only Rodgers comes to mind for a similar situation but again, they had some first round picks and went HAM in free agency. If the Texans can score some top FAs that would help obviously. But then when you take a step back and look at it, Rodgers is one of the best QBs of all time, which takes away from the comp for me. So because to me it's a unique situation, and Watson is a mix of a QB I don't see winning it all without a great supporting cast but a guy who would have immense trade value....if the Texans don't see themselves putting that cast around him, getting multiple firsts and hitting the reset button could be on the table. Although I want to reiterate that through everything I'm saying, I know it's not likely. Just presenting the case for it which is based on whoever comes in having the same opinion of Watson that I do, which is probably an opinion that isn't popular. I think he's a really good player, but a full tier or two below Wilson and obviously Mahomes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: In Watson's case, he is already paid and the roster is not good - only Rodgers comes to mind for a similar situation but again, they had some first round picks and went HAM in free agency Andrew Luck? Joined a 2-14 Colts team with an aging Reggie Wayne, a close to retirement Jeff Saturday (I think) an often injured Dallas Clark (who also retired quickly, I think) and a defense anchored by Dwight Freeney - and nobody else. The Colts had money and picks, but they whiffed on them for the most part (Bjorn Werner? Trading a 1st for Trent Richardson? Signing Andre Johnson and Frank Gore instead of reworking the defense?) Despite all of that, Luck was winning games. The only real assets he had were Anthony Castazano and TY Hilton - didn't stop him from making some deep playoff runs. So, it's doable. And - unlike the Colts - the Texans made the OL a priority, and it's showing. Watson takes his hits, but that's moreso do to him holding onto the ball too long, not because he's facing immense pressure. Nobody said it will be easy - again, this and next year are washes for the most part. But the new HC/GM will have to purge the BoB out of the building and build their unit, while looking to a young vet in Watson and Tunsil to lead the charge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDez Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I don’t normally listen to generic talk shows but Cowherd predicted the Browns don’t pick up Mayfield’s 5th year option. Has it been that rough for him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Definitely Chiefs and Seahawks. Not completely sure about the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, DirtyDez said: I don’t normally listen to generic talk shows but Cowherd predicted the Browns don’t pick up Mayfield’s 5th year option. Has it been that rough for him? Yeah, Baker's not very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, Eagles, Cowboys* Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Bills Wild Cards: 49ers, Lions, Panthers, Packers, Titans, Browns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 3:46 PM, BrownsDog23 said: Off the top of my head Bengals cause Burrows the truth and Cowboys, I think they eventually come to a deal with Dak On 10/19/2020 at 3:46 PM, Bearerofnews said: Chargers You know people woulda said the same thing about Winston and Mariota a few games into their rookie seasons. Same with Mayfield after 2018. Lets not forget RG3 was the king of Washington DC after his rookie year. And so on. I for one am not sold at all on Herbert or Burrow despite their respectable starts. I could easily envision them being let go after their rookie deals like Winston and Mariota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 On 10/20/2020 at 3:17 PM, candyman93 said: As crazy as it sounds, if Cleveland makes the playoffs this year and repeats next year, Baker will be given a long leash. Not if he's still the weak link on an otherwise loaded team. Don't forget the Bears went 12-4 with Trubisky just 2 years ago and now he's most likely done for as a starter in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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