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How many teams would you guarantee have the same starting QB 3 years from now?


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On 10/20/2020 at 3:53 PM, RamblinMan99 said:

Really tired of the comparisons to Big Ben to be honest.  

Allen's not even close to where Ben was at his age.  

Do you even remember Big Ben in 2006 when he was 24 years old like Josh Allen is this year?  Try 18 TDs to 23 INTs while completinh 59.7% of his passes.  And sure his team won the Super Bowl the year before but its not like he was tearing it up with just 17 TDs to 9 INTs in the regular season.  

Young Ben Roethlisberger was very much a game manager who rode an elite defense and run game to a lot of wins.  As he developed the team became more about him and that's the Big Ben you seem to be referring to.

Josh Allen is ahead of Big Ben at the same age when it comes to their development despite people wanting to be prisoners of the moment after he had 2 poor games after 4 stellar ones to start the season. 

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5 hours ago, VanS said:

I for one am not sold at all on Herbert or Burrow despite their respectable starts.  I could easily envision them being let go after their rookie deals like Winston and Mariota. 

Bengals fans that truly understand Mike Brown know that, barring injury, Burrow is here for the long haul.  It's just what Brown does.  Look how long he kept Dalton around.  This draft will be all about the o-line and Burrow will settle in

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4 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

Bengals fans that truly understand Mike Brown know that, barring injury, Burrow is here for the long haul.  It's just what Brown does.  Look how long he kept Dalton around.  This draft will be all about the o-line and Burrow will settle in

Dalton wasn't your main problem. It was Marvin Lewis, who should have been fired after the 2014 playoff loss to Indy.

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32 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Dalton wasn't your main problem. It was Marvin Lewis, who should have been fired after the 2014 playoff loss to Indy.

The number 1 problem, and always has been Mike Brown.  While Marvin got stale, he was able to drag the team into the 21st century, despite ownership.  And ownership hasn't changed.

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17 hours ago, VanS said:

 

You know people woulda said the same thing about Winston and Mariota a few games into their rookie seasons.  Same with Mayfield after 2018.  Lets not forget RG3 was the king of Washington DC after his rookie year.  And so on.

I for one am not sold at all on Herbert or Burrow despite their respectable starts.  I could easily envision them being let go after their rookie deals like Winston and Mariota. 

No they wouldn't. None of the 3 you mentioned looked close to as good as Herbert has looked so far. I can post the stats. Herbert has been a absolute beast so far. Has played amongst the best of all qbs in the entire league.

This is without preseason like the 3 you mentioned. This is a bad bad comparison.

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17 hours ago, VanS said:

 

You know people woulda said the same thing about Winston and Mariota a few games into their rookie seasons.  Same with Mayfield after 2018.  Lets not forget RG3 was the king of Washington DC after his rookie year.  And so on.

I for one am not sold at all on Herbert or Burrow despite their respectable starts.  I could easily envision them being let go after their rookie deals like Winston and Mariota. 

RG3 first 4 starts - 86 for 124, 1070 yds 4 tds 1 int. 69.3% comp 103.2 rating.

Winston first 4 starts - 73 of 133, 965 yds, 6 tds 7 ints. 54.89% comp 71.1 rating 

Baker first 4 starts - 85 of 153, 1076 yds, 4 tds 5 ints, 55.5% comp 72.7 rating

Mariota first 4 starts - 82 of 128, 1020 yds, 8 tds 3 ints, 64% comp 99.7 passer rating

 

Herbert first 4 starts 97 of 141, 1195, 9 tds 3 ints, 68.8% comp 107.1 rating. 

 

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On 10/20/2020 at 2:45 AM, Jakuvious said:

So, I'm going to take 3 years from now as the start of the 2023 season, as that specifically is important for certain contracts in this discussion.

Absolutely, 100%, without a shadow of a doubt: Chiefs, Texans, Seahawks

Chiefs, Texans, and Seahawks I think are the only three teams that have proven, consistently high performing QBs, that will still be under their current contract come 2023. I do think Wilson probably renegotiates by then, but there's almost no chance something doesn't get done there if it comes to that.

 

Probably, but rookies: Bengals, Chargers

I like Burrow and Herbert but don't trust a 6 game sample size.

 

Probably, but I could see a drop off happening, and the contract will be endable: Bills, Ravens, Titans, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals

I think Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott are all seen as young franchise QBs by their respective franchises, but I think there's just enough time and just enough doubt for something stupid to happen. Dallas seems to really not want to pay Dak, and the injury will only make things more complicated. Jackson and Allen each have a presumed 2 years left on their deal, and should be locks for an extension at the end of that, but weirder falloffs have happened. Could see a situation with a down year but still wanting to get paid by MVP candidates. Not likely, but not Wilson/Mahomes level locks. Tannehill is still under contract at that point, so if he's anything close to this he'll be kept. At 35 at that point, though. Wentz is the trickiest one, I think, because he's still under contract at that point, it's just a question of if the spiral continues. I'd be really surprised if the Rams move on from Goff by then, but at the same time, I'm just so very uninspired by Goff. Murray has shown a bit, but not quite enough to call him a lock either. I would expect him to get the option for 2023, but there's a lot of time left there.

 

I don't think so, but it could happen: Patriots, Browns, Jacksonville, Broncos, Las Vegas, Bears, Lions, Panthers, 49ers

I honestly like Minshew, but I don't trust that team to be stable enough to keep a QB that long. They'll have a new FO and new coach and that almost always brings QB turnover. Mayfield has a similar FO situation I don't trust, with the added benefit of me not thinking he's a good QB. I think if Baker is still around by then, it will have more to do with Stefanski panning out as a head coach, than Baker panning out as a QB. Newton seems like a stopgap in a weird season, not a long term solution. Also it's just hard to like his playstyle when he'll be in his mid-30s by then, too. Lock seems really uninspiring to me so far. I keep seeing articles about how he has "it" or how you just have to believe in him, and it all just seems like really verbose ways to get around the fact that he just hasn't played all that well as a QB so far. Burrow and Herbert have already passed him by, IMO. I think Vegas gets just impatient enough with Carr to move on. He's a free cut in 2 years, a free agent in 3. If you don't win anything with a QB in like 8+ years, I feel like you should move on. But he could just be the next Stafford, too. Speaking of, I just have to imagine he's sick of it by now, right? He has to try something different, as does Detroit. If Stafford still starts for Detroit in 2023, it'll be a damn shame. Bridgewater doesn't strike me as the guy long term. Fantastic stopgap, but I feel like they have to want their own guy as a long term plan. Jimmy G is basically a free cut after this year, and I really think he just holds them back more than he helps.

 

They'll probably retire, but what is age anymore?: Steelers, Colts, Packers, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers

Ryan is the youngest of this group, at 35, so he could still be around at this point, I just don't know why he would want to be. The others should be clearly over the hill by then. Rodgers at 40 would be the next youngest, but Green Bay would jettison him by then if he doesn't retire.

 

 

No chance whatsover: Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Vikings

Fitzmagic will probably still be playing, knowing him, but there's literally 0 chance it's on the same roster. I think Darnold should get some time to sit and learn somewhere, but far, far away from the Jets. Daniel Jones is trash. I assume that isn't a hot take anymore. I don't see any of the Redskins QBs surviving that long, for obvious reasons with each.

Cousins I want to separate here, because his contract situation is....fun. I don't think it's possible to argue, from an on field perspective, that Cousins should not be immediately removed from the Vikings roster this offseason. But there's a really crucial contract trigger on day 3 of the 2021 season, so about 4 or 5 months from now. His 2021 salary is already guaranteed. So if he is cut at any point prior to day 3 of the 2021 season, they'll eat his full 2021 salary of $21M, and his prorated bonuses for 2021 and 2022, for $20M total. So on roster in 2021, he would cost them $31M against the cap. To cut him, he would cost a total of $41M. So the dead money exceeds his cap hit by $10M. Rough hit to take in a (likely) low cap year. BUT, if they wait, it arguably gets worse. Because on day 3 of the 2021 league year, his 2022 salary gets guaranteed. That 2022 salary is a whopping $35M. Throw in the prorated bonus, and his 2022 cap hit if he is on roster, OR if he's cut after day 3 of 2021, would be $45M. That's Mahomes money at that point, for a QB no one wants. 

Lock is 5-2 in his 7 games as a starter. The offense looks dramatically different when he's healthy and in there. He can put a lot of pressure on defenses with his arm down field.

Still a work in progress, but he has definitely flashed those big time throws and abilities to be the long term answer.

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5 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

No they wouldn't. None of the 3 you mentioned looked close to as good as Herbert has looked so far. I can post the stats. Herbert has been a absolute beast so far. Has played amongst the best of all qbs in the entire league.

This is without preseason like the 3 you mentioned. This is a bad bad comparison.

 

5 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

RG3 first 4 starts - 86 for 124, 1070 yds 4 tds 1 int. 69.3% comp 103.2 rating.

Winston first 4 starts - 73 of 133, 965 yds, 6 tds 7 ints. 54.89% comp 71.1 rating 

Baker first 4 starts - 85 of 153, 1076 yds, 4 tds 5 ints, 55.5% comp 72.7 rating

Mariota first 4 starts - 82 of 128, 1020 yds, 8 tds 3 ints, 64% comp 99.7 passer rating

 

Herbert first 4 starts 97 of 141, 1195, 9 tds 3 ints, 68.8% comp 107.1 rating. 

 

Looks to me like his numbers are comprable to Mariota.  We'll see how his season progresses.  I doubt its as impactful as RG3's rookie year.  Regardless of the stats, RG3 was the talk of the NFL his rookie year.  He beat the Saints Week 1 on the road.  To date I believe Herbert has yet to win a game.

I get it that as a Chargers fan you are excited.  All I'm saying is I've seen this movie before.  I was not high on Herbert coming out of the draft.  And there's nothing I have seen thus far to make me reconsider.  He reminds me a lot of Mariota.  I just don't see the "it" factor in him.  

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1 hour ago, VanS said:

 

Looks to me like his numbers are comprable to Mariota.  We'll see how his season progresses.  I doubt its as impactful as RG3's rookie year.  Regardless of the stats, RG3 was the talk of the NFL his rookie year.  He beat the Saints Week 1 on the road.  To date I believe Herbert has yet to win a game.

I get it that as a Chargers fan you are excited.  All I'm saying is I've seen this movie before.  I was not high on Herbert coming out of the draft.  And there's nothing I have seen thus far to make me reconsider.  He reminds me a lot of Mariota.  I just don't see the "it" factor in him.  

He is nothing like Mariota though. Other than same college. They literally dont have any similar skill sets. Justin is bigger, athletic, mobile with much better pocket presence and with a cannon arm, elite arm talent, great under pressure and a elite deep threat passer. Mariota was bigger than he played, was accurate on short passes, was somewhat tough , athletic and mobile couldn't make all the throws. This has nothing to do with being a Chargers fan. Just watch the tape. If you dont see "it" and see Mariota based on Herbert's first 4 games in the NFL, than i question whether you have watched Chargers games or your ability to assess QBs. Herbert has been as electric and dynamic as any qb in the league this year and that's his first 4 starts in the league.

What will happen moving forward i don't know. But what has happened, i do know, definitively and you are waaay wrong on this. 

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3 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Lock is 5-2 in his 7 games as a starter. The offense looks dramatically different when he's healthy and in there. He can put a lot of pressure on defenses with his arm down field.

Still a work in progress, but he has definitely flashed those big time throws and abilities to be the long term answer.

Yes. And Elway gave him a plethora of weapons around him to succeed.

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19 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

He is nothing like Mariota though. Other than same college. They literally dont have any similar skill sets. Justin is bigger, athletic, mobile with much better pocket presence and with a cannon arm, elite arm talent, great under pressure and a elite deep threat passer. Mariota was bigger than he played, was accurate on short passes, was somewhat tough , athletic and mobile couldn't make all the throws. This has nothing to do with being a Chargers fan. Just watch the tape. If you dont see "it" and see Mariota based on Herbert's first 4 games in the NFL, than i question whether you have watched Chargers games or your ability to assess QBs. Herbert has been as electric and dynamic as any qb in the league this year and that's his first 4 starts in the league.

What will happen moving forward i don't know. But what has happened, i do know, definitively and you are waaay wrong on this. 

I only compared him to Mariota based on the hot start statistically and the fact both guys are typically the type of QB I go far in the draft (i.e. athletic toolsy type) but I was never into because they lacked an "it" factor.  Obviously they are not stylistically similar.

We'll see how Herbert fares movinf forward.  If he becomes a star then I will admit to missing on him.  All I'm saying is we have a long way to go before he can establish that.  

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On 10/22/2020 at 5:15 PM, Bearerofnews said:

RG3 first 4 starts - 86 for 124, 1070 yds 4 tds 1 int. 69.3% comp 103.2 rating.

Winston first 4 starts - 73 of 133, 965 yds, 6 tds 7 ints. 54.89% comp 71.1 rating 

Baker first 4 starts - 85 of 153, 1076 yds, 4 tds 5 ints, 55.5% comp 72.7 rating

Mariota first 4 starts - 82 of 128, 1020 yds, 8 tds 3 ints, 64% comp 99.7 passer rating

 

Herbert first 4 starts 97 of 141, 1195, 9 tds 3 ints, 68.8% comp 107.1 rating. 

 

Bro don't jinx it. If VanS doesn't like player it means that player will be special and if he thinks a player is special than you can guarantee that he will be a bust. Just look at the Jinx he brought upon the 4-0 Bills and Josh Allen. Stay Away!

 

As for the thread, the only guarantees are Mahomes, Watson, and Wilson mainly because they are already paid and there isn't a reasonable upgrade to be had. 

 

 

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