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NFC Least battle for #1: No D @ No Name


Matts4313

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Historically, you can tell or predict a teams current success or lack of success by looking at their draft classes from 3 and 4 seasons ago, and track the success of their resigned FAs.

2016 draft: 

Taco Charlton - gone

Awuzie - Hot and cold player, injured

Lewis - Another hot and cold player

Switzer - gone

Woods - Relied on too much as a mid-late selectio 

White - gone

Ivie - gone

Brown - buried on depth chart

Carell - gone

2018 draft:

LVE - Some love him, but inconsistent + health problems

Connor Williams - Hasnt played too well

Gallup - The one bright spot of thrse 2 drafts, but struggling this year to create separation

Armstrong - backup at best

Schultz - decent player benefitting from all the attention outside

Mike White - gone

Covington - gone

Wilson - decent 4th option

Scarbrough - gone

Re-signs:

Lawrence - not living up to contract

Collins - not living up to contract

Jaylon Smith - not living up to contract, did play well last week

Cooper - explosive but inconsistent

Elliott - not living up to contract

So to refresh my point:

One true hit + 3 semi hits, in two drafts in the years these players should be starting to truly shine or breakout, = poor play on the field.

For how well the team has done in some drafts, such as 2016s Zeke, Dak, Brown big 3, and the smart choices in Martin, Frederick, Lamb, when other positions of need couls have been filled, this team overall has not drafted very well overall. And while an average of hitting around .250 is still pretty good in the draft, in the crucial 3 and 4 years prior to this season, this team was well below that mark.

Yes there are other factors - injury to Dak, poor coaching, etc, but almost every teams success or lack of can often be directly correlated to how big their hits are and how high their hit rate was in the draft 3 and 4 years prior, and the success of the players they chose to keep in the same time frame. This teams lack of success, following this little predicting formula if you want to call it that, was to be expected.

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I think that is an extremely pessimistic view of the hit/misses in the draft. The hit rates on draft picks is extremely low outside of round 1 and 2. And by hit rates - i mean becoming a starter. Not even a quality one. 

Also saying someone like Collins is not living up to his contract is madness. Dude was fantastic last year and injured this year. Injuries happen. If Mahommes broke his arm would you say he didnt live up to his contract? Or that he was simply unlucky?

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2 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Historically, you can tell or predict a teams current success or lack of success by looking at their draft classes from 3 and 4 seasons ago, and track the success of their resigned FAs.

2016 draft: 

Taco Charlton - gone

Awuzie - Hot and cold player, injured

Lewis - Another hot and cold player

Switzer - gone

Woods - Relied on too much as a mid-late selectio 

White - gone

Ivie - gone

Brown - buried on depth chart

Carell - gone

2018 draft:

LVE - Some love him, but inconsistent + health problems

Connor Williams - Hasnt played too well

Gallup - The one bright spot of thrse 2 drafts, but struggling this year to create separation

Armstrong - backup at best

Schultz - decent player benefitting from all the attention outside

Mike White - gone

Covington - gone

Wilson - decent 4th option

Scarbrough - gone

Re-signs:

Lawrence - not living up to contract

Collins - not living up to contract

Jaylon Smith - not living up to contract, did play well last week

Cooper - explosive but inconsistent

Elliott - not living up to contract

So to refresh my point:

One true hit + 3 semi hits, in two drafts in the years these players should be starting to truly shine or breakout, = poor play on the field.

For how well the team has done in some drafts, such as 2016s Zeke, Dak, Brown big 3, and the smart choices in Martin, Frederick, Lamb, when other positions of need couls have been filled, this team overall has not drafted very well overall. And while an average of hitting around .250 is still pretty good in the draft, in the crucial 3 and 4 years prior to this season, this team was well below that mark.

Yes there are other factors - injury to Dak, poor coaching, etc, but almost every teams success or lack of can often be directly correlated to how big their hits are and how high their hit rate was in the draft 3 and 4 years prior, and the success of the players they chose to keep in the same time frame. This teams lack of success, following this little predicting formula if you want to call it that, was to be expected.

I like how you set this up, well down. I have just 1 problem with it though.

How much of the players you mentioned failures are on the coaches not putting them into positions to succeed?

I have seen so called "busts" leave this team and go elsewhere and flourish, even win a title.

It's happened often actually.

While back here on the ranch our beloved franchise ruined the careers of players lije:

Romo, Witten, Barber, Newman, T. Smith., S. Lee etc.

These guys could have won a title with better coaching, a better GM, and an owner who doesn't put himself first.

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2 minutes ago, Rtnldave said:

I like how you set this up, well down. I have just 1 problem with it though.

How much of the players you mentioned failures are on the coaches not putting them into positions to succeed?

I have seen so called "busts" leave this team and go elsewhere and flourish, even win a title.

It's happened often actually.

While back here on the ranch our beloved franchise ruined the careers of players lije:

Romo, Witten, Barber, Newman, T. Smith., S. Lee etc.

These guys could have won a title with better coaching, a better GM, and an owner who doesn't put himself first.

What was the surrounding talent like on the other teams? Carr for example, left here and did well, but what kind of team was he on? Hitchens as well, what did he have surrounding him? Better than we had here, a lot better.

Yes, coaching plays a part. For example, Carr was brought in, Claiborne too, to play man coverage in a blitz heavy rob ryan defense. Then were forced into a zone oriented scheme only a season later, where neither was very suited. So yes, coaching plays a part. Theres a lot of factors. But the surrounding cast also plays a tremendous part overall. Hitchens last year, as an example, had an outstanding offense with one of the best QBs to every play in the history of football. Flozell had one of the best defensive units in football history. 

This little formula i broke down above, does not just apply here. Look at every SB winners drafts 3 and 4 years before their win, and factor in who they paid/the players they kept. Look at every low win team and do the same. 

Just as a quick reference to save me time, the Giants before their big win. 3 and 4 years prior. Selected Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Tuck, Umenyiora, Kiwanuka, Snee, David Diehl, Gibril Wilson, William Joseph, James Butler, Blackburn, and hero David Tyree. Long list of big hits, good hits, and guys who played key roles in their wins. The players they paid to keep? Strahan, Diehl, Eli, Tynes, Pierce, Toomer.

No wasted money on one year wonders. High hit rate and several big hits in their drafts 3 and 4 years prior. And the result, a SB win. 

You can do this with just about any SB win in the last 20 years. Or any 0 to 5 win team as well. 

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49 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

What was the surrounding talent like on the other teams? Carr for example, left here and did well, but what kind of team was he on? Hitchens as well, what did he have surrounding him? Better than we had here, a lot better.

Yes, coaching plays a part. For example, Carr was brought in, Claiborne too, to play man coverage in a blitz heavy rob ryan defense. Then were forced into a zone oriented scheme only a season later, where neither was very suited. So yes, coaching plays a part. Theres a lot of factors. But the surrounding cast also plays a tremendous part overall. Hitchens last year, as an example, had an outstanding offense with one of the best QBs to every play in the history of football. Flozell had one of the best defensive units in football history. 

This little formula i broke down above, does not just apply here. Look at every SB winners drafts 3 and 4 years before their win, and factor in who they paid/the players they kept. Look at every low win team and do the same. 

Just as a quick reference to save me time, the Giants before their big win. 3 and 4 years prior. Selected Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Tuck, Umenyiora, Kiwanuka, Snee, David Diehl, Gibril Wilson, William Joseph, James Butler, Blackburn, and hero David Tyree. Long list of big hits, good hits, and guys who played key roles in their wins. The players they paid to keep? Strahan, Diehl, Eli, Tynes, Pierce, Toomer.

No wasted money on one year wonders. High hit rate and several big hits in their drafts 3 and 4 years prior. And the result, a SB win. 

You can do this with just about any SB win in the last 20 years. Or any 0 to 5 win team as well. 

I agree with everything you said. Except you forgot to mention that twice, once with Romo and once with Dak, this team won 13 games. 

That's a mighty supporting cast, not once but twice.

Edited by Rtnldave
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4 minutes ago, Rtnldave said:

I agree with everything you said. Except you forgot to mention that twice, once with Romo and once with Dak, this team won 13 games. 

That's a mighty supporting cast, not once but twice.

Oh for sure. I still say there were 3 times this team should have won a SB or at least gone to one.

Parcells last year, this was a damn good team. A bobbled hold, one hell of a way to lose a game.

2007 vs the Giants in divisional round, a 13-3 year you mentioned. That Giants D Line simply beat up Romo and the offense. It beat up Brady too. 

Dez Bryant catch-no catch game was horrendous and this team would have clearly gone far.

Neither of those instances would I say coaching cost us the game. Freak plays, miracle runs (that Giants DL probably one of the best units ever assembled), and bad calls cost the team.

You could count even the Aaron Rodgers 40 second rally to win, too. That team should have gone far. But Aaron Rodgers miracle at the end. Again, cant really blame a coaching malfunction there.

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18 minutes ago, D82 said:

 

Wonder if that includes the ~300 the rams put up against us in the playoffs. Rumor has it that Gurley and Anderson are still running to this day.

2 minutes ago, D82 said:

 

Ha, take that Jets. We know how to suck just as bad as you guys. 

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26 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Wonder if that includes the ~300 the rams put up against us in the playoffs. Rumor has it that Gurley and Anderson are still running to this day.

Ha, take that Jets. We know how to suck just as bad as you guys. 

But let's keep drafting DBs in the higher rounds. Because, you know, DT is a worthless, unimportant position. I mean, who even uses DTs anymore? God forbid a DB gets beat for a TD.

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2 minutes ago, Rtnldave said:

But let's keep drafting DBs in the higher rounds. Because, you know, DT is a worthless, unimportant position. I mean, who even uses DTs anymore? God forbid a DB gets beat for a TD.

"Keep drafting"? Weve spent like 3-4ish first rounders on DBs in 20 years. 

Edited by Matts4313
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