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J-ALL-DAY

Week 7 GDT - New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers

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@757-NINER is right, wide 9 can have some problems in run defense because of the splits. I would say that this is not a normal wide 9 defense because we play two DTs at DE. Armstead and Hyder in on base downs with kinlaw, DJJ, givens etc in the middle is very tough to run on. Especially because Warner is so good at reading things 

So I would classify our run d as good. Our coverage is good. Pass rush is bad and that's really our main issue on defense right now. I am less concerned about that this week because the pats skill position players won't kill us if cam has a lot of time to throw. He was extremely inaccurate last week and I don't think it was due to 'rust' 

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9 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

Harris will likely be starting. For the life of me I just don't understand why Moore isn't the next man up for either safety position. 

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6 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

Actually, I'd argue that we're pretty good at stopping the run this year.

If you look at traditional stats, here's how we stack up:

  • We get run on 13th most in the league, so a little more than average and we've given up the 14th fewest yards, so again, slightly above average.
  • But, we've given up the 3rd fewest amount of rushing TD's in the league with only 4.
  • We're 8th in the NFL in ypc at 4.1.
  • Our yards per game is sitting at exactly 10th in the NFL with 108.3 ypg. 
  • We've forced the 3rd most fumbles from rushers with 4.

We're consistently above average and, in some cases, top 10 or better. From a traditional stand point, we're sitting somewhere in the 10-13 range as a run stopping unit.

 

If you look at advanced stats, here's how we stack up:

From Football Outsiders

  • Total Rushing Defense DVOA - 7th in the NFL at -22.5% (our run D is 22.5% better than the average run D in the league)
  • Our front 7 is the 8th best in the NFL at limiting yards on average from ball carriers with 3.83 yards on average. This means that the ball carrier usually gets less than 4 yards per carry by our front 7.
  • We're the 6th best team in the NFL at tackling the ball carrier at or behind the LOS at 23%. 
  • When the ball carrier makes it 5-10 yards down field, we're the 8th best team at limiting further yards at 1.05 yards on average. 
  • When the ball carrier makes it 10+ yards down field, we're the 4th best team at limiting further yards at 0.33 yards on average.

To sum up, we're an efficient run defense that's very good at tackling (4th fewest missed tackles in the NFL as a unit, according to Pro Football Reference). Our front 7 is very good at sniffing out running plays at or around the LOS. When the ball carrier happens to make it into our secondary, we swarm extremely well and have disciplined tacklers (excluding Marcel Harris). 

Our biggest issue as a unit is stopping running QB's. Our EDGE players aren't athletic enough to disengage and chase down running QBs. The addition of Jordan Willis should help this, but this is where we're sorely missing the supreme athleticism of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. Hell, even Ronald Blair was doing a better job of that than our current line. 

This run defense isn't the Jim Harbaugh era elite run stopping unit, but it's good enough to be a top 10 unit. 

 

 

And to that I would say who have we played this year that is actually decent at running the ball?

Jets, Iggles & Giants are all bottom 5 rushing units. AZ is middle of the pack but still Murray nearly ran for 100 yards against us. The sample size is skewed.

Edited by 757-NINER

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1 hour ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

I'd like to see Cyprien get a shot. Word was he was making plays left and right in camp. Plus I still dont trust Harris as a starter. 

I don't understand why haven't tried Moore as the nickelback. He played there some in camp and word was he looked pretty good there. Really couldn't hurt to give him some looks there at this point.

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Just now, 757-NINER said:

And to that I would say who have played this year that is actually decent at running the ball?

Jets, Iggles & Giants are all bottom 5 rushing units. AZ is middle of the pack but still Murray nearly ran for 100 yards against. The sample size is skewed.

I think you mean the sampling is skewed. If the sample size was skewed, then data on all teams is invalid. But, regardless, if you think the sampling is skewed, then how can you say the 49ers are bad at stopping the run? If that's the case, then your response is as invalid as mine, right?

BTW, the Eagles and Cardinals are a more highly rated run offense then you're guessing at. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are the #2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Eagles are #19th in the NFL. Oh, and the Rams, who we just beat, are #1 in rushing in the NFL. The Jets, Giants, and Dolphins are near the bottom of the league. 

If you prefer more traditional stats, then the Cardinals are #3, Rams #7, Eagles, #10, Jets #16, Dolphins #17, and Giants #29, according to NFL.com. Only one of our opponents are considered a bottom 5 rushing unit. 

So, either way you slice it, the 49ers have faced some good rushing offenses and are a fringe top 10 run defense. I really don't think the sampling is skewed.   

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12 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I think you mean the sampling is skewed. If the sample size was skewed, then data on all teams is invalid. But, regardless, if you think the sampling is skewed, then how can you say the 49ers are bad at stopping the run? If that's the case, then your response is as invalid as mine, right?

BTW, the Eagles and Cardinals are a more highly rated run offense then you're guessing at. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are the #2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Eagles are #19th in the NFL. Oh, and the Rams, who we just beat, are #1 in rushing in the NFL. The Jets, Giants, and Dolphins are near the bottom of the league. 

If you prefer more traditional stats, then the Cardinals are #3, Rams #7, Eagles, #10, Jets #16, Dolphins #17, and Giants #29, according to NFL.com. Only one of our opponents are considered a bottom 5 rushing unit. 

So, either way you slice it, the 49ers have faced some good rushing offenses and are a fringe top 10 run defense. I really don't think the sampling is skewed.   

With the coverage unit and the standard downs gap filling run defense providing most of that value. Thus, when the coverage unit died a grisly death, so did the defense.

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Giants and Eagles supposedly open for business. Brandon Graham anyone? 

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10 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Giants and Eagles supposedly open for business. Brandon Graham anyone? 

I don't think we can afford him or anyone worth a damn...could be wrong about that tho. Maybe one of the cap experts here can chime in.

Edited by 757-NINER

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15 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Giants and Eagles supposedly open for business. Brandon Graham anyone? 

We are more likely to be sellers than *big* time buyers. We don't have the money. Unless we are willing to restructure Jimmy, there's no real money to be found. 

I don't think that we are likely to be sellers unless we lose the next two, but I see no way that we are going to be big time buyers. Graham, Kerrigan, etc....non of them are coming here. If we are trading for guys, they have to be guys on rookie deals, so guys like Takk would make sense if we want another pass rusher. Pat Elflein if we want a center / guard. 

Preference would be that we also secure guys under contract next year. I would have loved to have picked up Josh Jackson earlier in the season. Billy Price could make sense if we want another center and he's under contract this year and next I believe on his rookie deal. Kemoko Turay in Indy would be a guy that I'm interested in. 

I suppose a guy like Romeo Okwara could still be on the table given the season is nearly half over, so we only would have to come up with about 1.5 

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16 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Giants and Eagles supposedly open for business. Brandon Graham anyone? 

If we spend any more draft picks I'm going to just rage quit the season. We have so many holes to fill next year and maybe we make the playoffs this year but we aren't getting back to the superbowl. 

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3 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

I wonder how many more weeks that cost him 

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55 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

No way that actually happened. He probably meant "Spotted for the first time in a while: DE Dee, using a Ford, pushing a sled on the side field. He hasn't played since week 1. #49ers". 

Only way he accomplishes that. 

Edited by John232
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