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Ravens trade for Yannick Ngakoue

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3 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Wow awesome move. I feel like this is especially to match up with the Chiefs, so we don't have to blitz as much to generate pass rush. 

But I'm noticing a lot of Judon hate. According to an ESPN stat that Judon is 5th among DE/OLBs in pass rush win rate, right in between Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

How do we reconcile how much people dislike him on this board with how good he is performing based on that stat? 

That stat has to be misleading because Judon's impact in games is just not at that level no matter how positively you spin it.

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15 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

Can we forget AB please? It was never going to happen. 

I mean. We can’t say this for sure. While it’s doubtful. The same person who broke this deal, is the same person that said the Seahawks “aren’t alone” in going after AB.

If there is a group of teams that would be interested in AB, I definitely think logically, we would be on it. There’s only a few that could hope to contain him, especially in this kind of season. There’s only a few he’s likely to play for where he can continue to reach for his legacy.

You'd have to think:
Tampa Bay
Seattle
Baltimore
New Orleans
Rams

Of that list our team and the Rams would be the only teams that he could come onto and be considered “the best WR on the squad.” So if there’s any sort of egotism there on that front (and with AB we have to consider their might be), then I think we’ve got a great shot at considering such a move.

Would be something I’m sure the front office would discuss with the leadership council and Harbaugh. If they all agree to the move and it’s ability to help the team reach its ultimate endgame, then I think there’s about a 35% chance that we target AB and another 10% chance or so that we actually land him.

Certainly high enough chances that I don’t think we can necessarily rule him out as a potential happening.

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2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That stat has to be misleading because Judon's impact in games is just not at that level no matter how positively you spin it.

Maybe but Judon has performed well enough in the past that he is probably identified by other teams as our top edge rusher. For him now to be our 2nd best edge rusher means he may get less attention from opposing teams,  and he can do more damage. 

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4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I mean. We can’t say this for sure. While it’s doubtful. The same person who broke this deal, is the same person that said the Seahawks “aren’t alone” in going after AB.

If there is a group of teams that would be interested in AB, I definitely think logically, we would be on it. There’s only a few that could hope to contain him, especially in this kind of season. There’s only a few he’s likely to play for where he can continue to reach for his legacy.

You'd have to think:
Tampa Bay
Seattle
Baltimore
New Orleans
Rams

Of that list our team and the Rams would be the only teams that he could come onto and be considered “the best WR on the squad.” So if there’s any sort of egotism there on that front (and with AB we have to consider their might be), then I think we’ve got a great shot at considering such a move.

Would be something I’m sure the front office would discuss with the leadership council and Harbaugh. If they all agree to the move and it’s ability to help the team reach its ultimate endgame, then I think there’s about a 35% chance that we target AB and another 10% chance or so that we actually land him.

Certainly high enough chances that I don’t think we can necessarily rule him out as a potential happening.

Don't give me hope! But I just don't think he's an option for the Ravens. As much as I want him, just don't see it happening unless LJ8 is being dragged on the flooring holding Harbaugh's pants leg. But in other news...

 

😆

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9 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Everyone has to know Judon is on the way out right now though. 

True. But I simply mean from a “buddy in arms” perspective. Let’s say everyone knew he only had one more year left with the squad. Everyone likely would be working that much harder to make this final year with the band as special as it can be before the other guy goes towards his solo act. However if you cut those memories short, it might cause a slight disruption to team morale considering how liked Judon is within the locker room and by our coaches.

5 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I think he knew that going into this year. The front office is usually open, which is why players that are cut or let go RARELY have bad blood here.

Plus Judon hasn't made any noise about negotiations, because there weren't any.

Agreed. Though trading him short of his chance to achieve this particular team goal could cause him to feel some level of hatred towards the organization.

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14 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Wow awesome move. I feel like this is especially to match up with the Chiefs, so we don't have to blitz as much to generate pass rush. 

But I'm noticing a lot of Judon hate. According to an ESPN stat that Judon is 5th among DE/OLBs in pass rush win rate, right in between Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

How do we reconcile how much people dislike him on this board with how good he is performing based on that stat? 

Like most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

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27 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I think he knew that going into this year. The front office is usually open, which is why players that are cut or let go RARELY have bad blood here.

Plus Judon hasn't made any noise about negotiations, because there weren't any.

I think Judon already feels pretty blessed going from GVSU m and a fifth round pick to making $17M for one season. No matter what happens, it doesn’t seem that he has an ill will toward the FO. 
 

it’s rare the player who leaves and shows bad blood, as you mention. Tony Jefferson, for example, continues to be a huge cheerleader for this team and his former teammates. 

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26 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That stat has to be misleading because Judon's impact in games is just not at that level no matter how positively you spin it.

Eh. He and bowser both have a lot of impact outside of pure pass rush as SAM LBs. also, talking about total impact is where he has more contribution than pure numbers. 

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So I assume they're going to play Yannick at OLB since he's too small to play DE in a 3-4 front, right?

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47 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Wow awesome move. I feel like this is especially to match up with the Chiefs, so we don't have to blitz as much to generate pass rush. 

But I'm noticing a lot of Judon hate. According to an ESPN stat that Judon is 5th among DE/OLBs in pass rush win rate, right in between Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

How do we reconcile how much people dislike him on this board with how good he is performing based on that stat? 

It’s because these stats explain exactly what we’ve called out with regards to Judon and his wins as fans. He’s all world against TEs.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work

Quote

The system watches every pass play, including scrambles, using the raw position and orientation data. It looks at which players are pass blocking and rushing and calculates a score based on the distance from every player to every other player along with the difference in orientation from each player toward every other. That score is used to determine who is blocking whom. Put simply, if you're at or behind the line of scrimmage, extremely close to a defender and facing him, you're probably trying to block him.

There’s obviously more to it and you’d need to read the entire article. But basically Judon’s ability to fool the PRWR metrics is based on his ability to see an unnaturally high amount of TE blocks and 0 blocks than would a normal “best edge on a team”.

What PRWR doesn’t measure (at least not with what’s released yet) is how often a rusher is beating an OT specifically or that they’re beating a TE/RB instead. The proximity metrics is only SO useful to this point in its infancy.

The computer is making assumptions based off of proximity. But because it’s not ACTUALLY watching the play it can’t determine the full complexity of a play. As it’s stated in the article, they had a number of false positives even with regard to certain play designs. With such a new technology, Judon’s style of play within our blitz heavy scheme definitely lends itself to some false positives off of zero blitz looks. That and his ability to face TEs at such a high degree lends itself to far easier wins than might be provided to his competition at his position.

Said another way. The number of blitzes the Ravens execute might unnaturally provide Judon with 1 false positive/ game while another defender might have to go three games before seeing a false positive attributed his way. Then if most top pass rushers see only 1 TE block/game while Judon sees 5 and wins on 4/5 such blocks. He’s now being attributed with 5 wins and that would naturally inflate his PRWR numbers.

So teams performing less zero blitzes are likely giving the proximity software far more accurate reads and then in conjunction with defenses giving said high end pass rushers far more respect than Judon receives (talking double teams with a TE and OT) and I would trust PFF’s “human tracking” far more than ESPN’s proximity tracking when it comes to top rated pass rushers, even if I don’t particularly trust their analysis very much.

Edited by diamondbull424

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30 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Wow awesome move. I feel like this is especially to match up with the Chiefs, so we don't have to blitz as much to generate pass rush. 

But I'm noticing a lot of Judon hate. According to an ESPN stat that Judon is 5th among DE/OLBs in pass rush win rate, right in between Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

How do we reconcile how much people dislike him on this board with how good he is performing based on that stat? 

I don't think it is hate as much as it is concern that we pay a lot for very little pass rush. I am not big on stats, as I think they can show whatever you want them to as long as you set the parameters the right way.

While we are not experts, we do know more about football than the average fan, and it is clear that Judon doesn't win his direct matchups against olines, but takes advantage of free plays and tight ends to get his stats. He is very allround, and that is not a negative, but as our primary rusher, it is just not enough.

Also, after a 10 hours course in contract law in construction, this was a nice news story to get home to

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1 hour ago, berlin calling said:

ideally we keep Judon and let him profit of Ngakoue.

remember 14, the last time this team had a potent duo with Suggs/Dumervil.

The difference being that both Suggs and Doom could win 1on1

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