Contenders or Pretenders?

[Letsch80]

On 10/25/2020 at 10:53 AM, Jakuvious said:

So, this might be a terrible hot take, and I can only imagine the backlash I'll get here, but am I crazy for not being sold on Baltimore right now? I just can't shake this thought that they're basically built to beat the crap out of bad and/or poorly coached football teams, but they won't reach the same peak against higher level football teams, between Lamar's playstyle on offense and the blitz heavy defense. Maybe Yannick changes the latter, but even if he improves the vanilla pass rush, I'm not sure he'll change the defensive philosophy, and that aggressive kind of blitzing is always going to be oppressive against young QBs and struggling offenses like Cincy and Washington, but that's never been the way to stop higher level QBs. On offense I don't think they've looked as good running the football with someone not named Lamar Jackson, and the pass game still lacks consistency. And right now, their strength of schedule is basically identical to what we've seen Pittsburgh criticized for, with the only exception that they played KC, but they lost pretty convincingly, so I'm not sure that's a good thing. Because otherwise, both teams beat Houston and Cleveland, had a surprisingly close victory over Philly, beat up one more NFC East team (Washington for Balt, NYG for Pitt), and one other lower level AFC team (Cincy for Balt, Denver for Pitt.)

Now, they do get tested after the bye, with a 5 game run against several of the better teams in the AFC, so this may be proved entirely wrong. If they have a post-bye run like they did last year, of convincing wins against good football teams around the league, that'll dramatically change what I said above. But right now, I'm not nearly impressed as I was last year with what they've been doing. They look less dominant despite playing mostly crap competition, IMO.

Well while I do agree that the offense needs to sharpen up before the playoffs the Ravens defense alone makes them a contender. With Yannick now in the fold Wink Martindale doesn't have to blitz so much do get pressure on the quarterback which means we don't need to leave the back end exposed to the elite qb's in the league to exploit. This Sundays game against Pittsburgh is a biggie and I feel like the Ravens will be ready for the challenge. 

[Tk3]

Tier 1 Contenders: Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, Steelers

Tier 2 Contenders: Titans, Packers, Buccaneers

Tier 1 Pretenders: Cardinals, Bills, Saints, Rams, 49ers

Tier 2 Pretenders: Browns, Colts, Bears 

[Ryan_W]

the Cardinals, Bills, Saints, Bears, Rams are the most interesting for me

Bucs are going up up up

[MagicMT]

I don't even know if I would put the Seahawks in the Contenders category. Yes their offense is fire but not sure it's enough. 
Their defense is just atrocious and the scheme won't change for sure. If there's any trades I don't think it will make a big difference either.
If the O stalls just for one game then it's over for the team

[Tk3]

5 hours ago, MagicMT said:

I don't even know if I would put the Seahawks in the Contenders category. Yes their offense is fire but not sure it's enough. 
Their defense is just atrocious and the scheme won't change for sure. If there's any trades I don't think it will make a big difference either.
If the O stalls just for one game then it's over for the team

I agree they are significantly flawed, but I can't place another NFC ahead of them at the moment, so hard to avoid calling them contenders. 

[Zalixar]

I love how much people critique teams all year. 

Once the winning team wins the SB all their issues just melt away and all that bs drops cause even the best and SB winning teams lose and have a number of flaws if you look hard enough.  That's just normal.  Only a few teams over the years perhaps people felt all season like there was a consensus #1 team through and through that was like 90% sure they were going win it all and then actually do.

It's always a bumpy ride to the top.

[Tk3]

On 10/27/2020 at 4:18 PM, Tk3 said:

Tier 1 Contenders: Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, Steelers

Tier 2 Contenders: Titans, Packers, Buccaneers

Tier 1 Pretenders: Cardinals, Bills, Saints, Rams, 49ers

Tier 2 Pretenders: Browns, Colts, Bears 

Time to dust this thread back off... Gotta rework this. Green means I've moved them up at least one tier, Red means I've moved them down

 

Tier 1 Contenders: Chiefs, Packers, Bills, Ravens, Rams

Tier 2 Contenders: Saints, Seahawks, Titans, Colts

Tier 1 Pretenders: Browns, Steelers, Buccaneers

Tier 2 Pretenders: Cardinals, Football Team

Outside looking in: Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders, Bears, 49ers, Giants

 

People are going to hate how high I have the Ravens, but I'm telling you, this team will win 11 games, and one of their losses will be part of a covid mess. It's also time to recognize the Rams as a top 2 team in the NFC. Their defense has been great, and their offense has been more consistent than I usually give them credit for

I don't care what the Steelers record is. They were barely a top 5 team in my eyes when they were 11-0, and now with 2 losses I'm not ready to even call them a top 10 team as far as playoff expectations

Browns are right on that border of "contender", I just have them as the 6th best team in the AFC and its hard for me to call 6 teams in a conference "contenders"

[MWil23]

41 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Browns are right on that border of "contender", I just have them as the 6th best team in the AFC and its hard for me to call 6 teams in a conference "contenders"

No issues with this at all whatsoever. You can't have 6 of your 11 starters on defense, all of whom play LB or in the secondary, as below average to very bad NFL caliber starters. They're still 3 years removed from 0-16, and it's clear how much they've invested in that offense (and it's shown so far thankfully). They have Myles, Ward, and 2 decent DT and a pretty good 2nd DE in Vernon, and that's it. Against Baltimore they had 4 starters out in the secondary and were down 2 backups to boot.

They're capable of beating some of those "upper tier" teams, but it would be via shootout or stealing one in the turnover battle...it's not sustainable this year.

[Shady Slim]

i think the steelers can still contend - yes we did look like *** against buffalo, and against the team, but there are two things i'll say as mitigating factors

the team are good, and they have been for the past few years but for being injury ravaged. yes they have a losing record, and they do lack weapons on offense, but imo for years now the team's been getting slept on, when really their poor record has been a product of their defense repeatedly being destroyed by an injury crisis.

second, while we did look bad against buffalo, to hold a top offense like buffalo at home to 19 points, when you are down three of your four best linebackers and your top corner - i know that everyone at this time of year has injuries but that's a really strong effort. 

fix up the drops and get an even below average running game and the steelers are a threat again

[diamondbull424]

My list would probably look something like:

Tier 1 Contenders: Chiefs, Rams
Tier 2 Contenders: Saints, Titans, Colts, Packers, Ravens, Bills, Steelers

Tier 1 Pretenders: Browns, Buccaneers, Seahawks
Tier 2 Pretenders: Cardinals, Football Team

Outside looking in: Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders, Bears, 49ers, Giants

 

[UncleAdamz]

8 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Tier 2 Contenders: Saints, Titans, Colts, Packers, Ravens, Bills, Steelers

Tier 1 Pretenders: Browns, Buccaneers, Seahawks

Do people still honestly feel like the Steelers are better than the Seahawks or any of these Tier 2 Contenders? To me they have looked like a solid 9-7 team these last few weeks, and it just seems like it is only downhill from here.

Edited December 17, 2020 by UncleAdamz

[Hunter2_1]

Maybe predictably, people were too high on Chicago

[Tk3]

8 minutes ago, UncleAdamz said:

Do people still honestly feel like the Steelers are better than the Seahawks or any of these Tier 2 Contenders? To me they have looked like a solid 9-7 team these last few weeks, and it just seems like it is only downhill from here.

Not speaking specifically to those you quoted - but in general I think people are too swayed by overall record

all 11-2 means is that they are in the playoffs and start with a home game. It doesn't mean they have better postseason projections than a 9-4 team or even an 8-5 team who is trending in the right direction

[Tk3]

10 hours ago, Shady Slim said:

i think the steelers can still contend - yes we did look like *** against buffalo, and against the team, but there are two things i'll say as mitigating factors

the team are good, and they have been for the past few years but for being injury ravaged. yes they have a losing record, and they do lack weapons on offense, but imo for years now the team's been getting slept on, when really their poor record has been a product of their defense repeatedly being destroyed by an injury crisis.

second, while we did look bad against buffalo, to hold a top offense like buffalo at home to 19 points, when you are down three of your four best linebackers and your top corner - i know that everyone at this time of year has injuries but that's a really strong effort. 

fix up the drops and get an even below average running game and the steelers are a threat again

I agree on this 100%

The problem is their troubles feel pretty systematic, and I don't know how easy it will be for them to change their offensive identity. Can that running game really be relied upon? Can Ben even go downfield with any consistency anymore? They just feel so predictable.

If they show it in the next week or two then I think they obviously move up quite a bit in my tier list, but I think its a difficult thing to fix quickly

[soflbillsfan]

10 hours ago, Shady Slim said:

i think the steelers can still contend - yes we did look like *** against buffalo, and against the team, but there are two things i'll say as mitigating factors

the team are good, and they have been for the past few years but for being injury ravaged. yes they have a losing record, and they do lack weapons on offense, but imo for years now the team's been getting slept on, when really their poor record has been a product of their defense repeatedly being destroyed by an injury crisis.

second, while we did look bad against buffalo, to hold a top offense like buffalo at home to 19 points, when you are down three of your four best linebackers and your top corner - i know that everyone at this time of year has injuries but that's a really strong effort. 

fix up the drops and get an even below average running game and the steelers are a threat again

The issue that I think the steelers have is not on the defense it is the offense and that is what is going to prevent them from contending in the playoffs. Ben just doesn't look like he has it anymore and you could tell on his throws. Not to mention the run game is nonexistent even with connor back he wasn't doing much. As a bills fan I saw early on in the year that Frank Gore was ripping off more yards then what the steelers RBs were doing against the bills. Defense can keep them in it but when they face high power offense like the chiefs or even possibly the bills again in the playoffs they will not be able to handle it. I am interested to see how the steelers handle a team like the Colts and Browns this would be a good test to figure out whether or not they will be a 1 and done team in the playoffs. One other thing I noticed against the bills is the bills made adjustments at half while the steelers looked to play same ball as the 1st half. Just interesting to see this and not sure if they have had to do this all year or not when it came to making them?