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Lions @ Falcons

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23 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Good stats. Thanks for linking.

Once I have a second today (we just moved, so things are crazy), I'll take a look at how many 4th quarter leads we've held with Patricia and Stafford.

Matt Patricia has won 12 games in his tenure, so that would be your answer.  He is 50% when leading in the 4th.  

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Matt Patricia has won 12 games in his tenure, so that would be your answer.  He is 50% when leading in the 4th.  

That's actually pretty remarkable. I thought it would be much worse than that, all things considered.

In other words, and unless I'm missing something (which is possible), Patricia holds 50% of his 4th quarter leads with Stafford at QB and 0% of his 4th quarter leads without Stafford.

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25 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

That's actually pretty remarkable. I thought it would be much worse than that, all things considered.

In other words, and unless I'm missing something (which is possible), Patricia holds 50% of his 4th quarter leads with Stafford at QB and 0% of his 4th quarter leads without Stafford.

Maybe I’m misreading you but it’s seems you view this as positive at the least acceptable?

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44 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

Maybe I’m misreading you but it’s seems you view this as positive at the least acceptable?

Well, nah, not at all. It just dilutes the narrative that Patricia has shown a tendency of blowing 4th quarter leads. Statistically, and with an NFL caliber QB under center, Patricia is just as likely to hold a 4th quarter lead as he is to blow it.

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17 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Well, nah, not at all. It just dilutes the narrative that Patricia has shown a tendency of blowing 4th quarter leads. Statistically, and with an NFL caliber QB under center, Patricia is just as likely to hold a 4th quarter lead as he is to blow it.

Right , I don’t know the league averages but I bet blowing 50% of your 4th qter leads makes you amongst the best at it.  That’s like saying the fact that Tony Gwynn only gets a hit 33.8% of the time he takes the plate dilutes the narrative he was a great hitter.

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1 hour ago, BigC421/ said:

Right , I don’t know the league averages but I bet blowing 50% of your 4th qter leads makes you amongst the best at it.

Possibly. Again, winning in the NFL is hard. Some coaches rarely find themselves with a lead. The fact that Patricia has had so many 4th quarter leads to blow surely says something.

I'm just pointing out that the "Patricia blows 4th quarter leads!" statement is just as statistically accurate as the "Patricia holds 4th quarter leads!" statement. (Which I found surprising.)

 

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This conversation has led to whether the glass is half full or half empty. Logically, nobody wins. But I’m not sure logic has actually ever existed here. 

So please. Everyone keep going. For old time sakes :)

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There is a gigantic logical fallacy here. You're supposed to hold leads. We'd have to put that statistic into context with other coaches likelyhood of blowing 4th quarter leads. We're also counting every single win as holding a lead, which while technically true is sort of silly.

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/27/lions-the-only-nfl-team-to-post-a-losing-record-when-leading-after-3-quarters/

Last year teams averaged an 85% win chance when leading in the 4th quarter. That should pretty clearly show that a 50% success rate would be flat out miserable.

Edited by nagahide13
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13 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

There is a gigantic logical fallacy here. You're supposed to hold leads. We'd have to put that statistic into context with other coaches likelyhood of blowing 4th quarter leads. We're also counting every single win as holding a lead, which while technically true is sort of silly.

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/27/lions-the-only-nfl-team-to-post-a-losing-record-when-leading-after-3-quarters/

Last year teams averaged an 85% win chance when leading in the 4th quarter. That should pretty clearly show that a 50% success rate would be flat out miserable.

I don't think any of that is being disputed. For whatever reason, Patricia has struggled to hold leads as head coach of the Lions. I think everyone agrees with that.

That article groups all 2019 teams together. I'm curious as to where individual coaches lie, and how many of those individual coaches were at or below 50%.

It's easy to say "Well, the great NFL teams hold 4th quarter leads, therefore 50% is miserable". It's different when comparing individual coaches. I'd be interested in how those numbers stack up. (And, again, I'm not saying Patricia has been good at holding 4th quarter leads. He clearly has not.)

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway

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Entertaining video. I wish they would have shown the reaction to Hockenson not getting out of bounds on the final drive. 

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3 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

It's easy to say "Well, the great NFL teams hold 4th quarter leads, therefore 50% is miserable". It's different when comparing individual coaches. I'd be interested in how those numbers stack up. (And, again, I'm not saying Patricia has been good at holding 4th quarter leads. He clearly has not.)

I didn't say that. I said the league average was 85%. He is well below average.

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29 minutes ago, nagahide13 said:

I didn't say that. I said the league average was 85%. He is well below average.

Absolutely. I think it's easy to see how that might be misleading.

Take Andy Reid and the Chiefs, for example. Without looking at their season, I'm guessing his percentage of games won while leading entering the 4th was really, really high. I'm guessing the same is true with the other top teams of 2019.

If the top coaches had extremely high percentages, which it's reasonable to suggest that they did, others likely fell well short. Comparing Patricia to those other coaches will more accurately show how he stacks up against the "not top tier" coaches in the league. After all, I don't think anyone is arguing that Patricia is a top tier coach.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway

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1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Absolutely. I think it's easy to see how that might be misleading.

Take Andy Reid and the Chiefs, for example. Without looking at their season, I'm guessing his percentage of games won while leading entering the 4th was really, really high. I'm guessing the same is true with the other top teams of 2019.

If the top coaches had extremely high percentages, which it's reasonable to suggest that they did, others likely fell well short. Comparing Patricia to those other coaches will more accurately show how he stacks up against the "not top tier" coaches in the league. After all, I don't think anyone is arguing that Patricia is a top tier coach.

I think that's why he used the league average, not the Andy Reid percentage. 

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10 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

I think that's why he used the league average, not the Andy Reid percentage. 

... right. So we can establish that Patricia is below the "league average". That shouldn't surprise anyone.

What we can't establish is how this percentage stacks up to the other coaches. Claiming that the rate is "miserable" based on the league average ignores the possibility that it may be close to or above other "not great" coaches, which would put him right in line with where he should be.

I really don't see why this perspective is so unclear.

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