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The Pats QB situation


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11 hours ago, dhunt2402 said:

Why do the Niners do it? To get some kind of compensation (maybe a 3rd/4th rounder) instead of cutting him outright, which again I think is a pretty likely outcome at this point given (a) Jimmy is 100% going to ask for a trade when they draft a QB at 3, and (b) he's $25 mil in dead weight on their cap for the next two years unless they move him.

I don’t see it that way. 

SF isn’t getting the bang for the buck at this point by clearing salary cap space. I mean, it might free them up for future extensions a little bit but the needle doesn’t get moved much, given the 2022 salary cap inflation and how contracts can be structured. SF doesn’t have a lot of space right now, but even if they cleared $20M+, what’re they going to do with that space that makes creating it so pressing? 

But more importantly, whomever it is they draft, may not be the best QB on the team come Week 1. That’s an important distinction for a HC that has actually had pretty terrible success outside of one season as the man in charge. Do you want, and maybe even expect, your #3 overall QB to be ready to go ASAP? Sure, maybe. But is it always a given? Nope. And when you have a solid team that’s trying to win games (not just re-build, like recent NYG teams for example), you start the better QB for now. Maybe Lance/Fields/Mac take over down the road, maybe it happens in 2022. Maybe they’re confident they’ll get their looks if (really, when) Jimmy goes down. The worst thing you can do is throw a rookie QB out there that absolutely isn’t ready.

I’m sure plenty will roll with “if your top 3 pick isn’t ready Week 1, then he wasn’t worth the pick” or something similar. Keep in mind that Mahomes sat Week 1. Deshaun sat Week 1. Herbert sat Week 1. Goff sat Week 1. Eli Manning sat Week 1. Some were bad coach decisions (Savage over Watson), some weren’t ready (Goff, Eli), some were “safe bets” (Tyrod over Herbert), some were strategic (Smith over Mahomes), but fact of the matter is that some QBs with high expectations don’t play right away. Having a competent QB that you’re familiar with and that you can win games with, is valuable for that team. Can’t understate that, Jimmy isn’t just some roster luxury.

You just made a SB with Jimmy holding it down at QB. Yes, you hope your rookie is an immediate upgrade, but that’s not a given especially at the start of the season. Even if Jimmy keeps the team’s head above water for 4-6 games before a rookie takes over - why so willingly sell that off? Or even just outright release him? I don’t get it.

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8 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

I don’t see it that way. 

SF isn’t getting the bang for the buck at this point by clearing salary cap space. I mean, it might free them up for future extensions a little bit but the needle doesn’t get moved much, given the 2022 salary cap inflation and how contracts can be structured. SF doesn’t have a lot of space right now, but even if they cleared $20M+, what’re they going to do with that space that makes creating it so pressing? 

But more importantly, whomever it is they draft, may not be the best QB on the team come Week 1. That’s an important distinction for a HC that has actually had pretty terrible success outside of one season as the man in charge. Do you want, and maybe even expect, your #3 overall QB to be ready to go ASAP? Sure, maybe. But is it always a given? Nope. And when you have a solid team that’s trying to win games (not just re-build, like recent NYG teams for example), you start the better QB for now. Maybe Lance/Fields/Mac take over down the road, maybe it happens in 2022. Maybe they’re confident they’ll get their looks if (really, when) Jimmy goes down. The worst thing you can do is throw a rookie QB out there that absolutely isn’t ready.

I’m sure plenty will roll with “if your top 3 pick isn’t ready Week 1, then he wasn’t worth the pick” or something similar. Keep in mind that Mahomes sat Week 1. Deshaun sat Week 1. Herbert sat Week 1. Goff sat Week 1. Eli Manning sat Week 1. Some were bad coach decisions (Savage over Watson), some weren’t ready (Goff, Eli), some were “safe bets” (Tyrod over Herbert), some were strategic (Smith over Mahomes), but fact of the matter is that some QBs with high expectations don’t play right away. Having a competent QB that you’re familiar with and that you can win games with, is valuable for that team. Can’t understate that, Jimmy isn’t just some roster luxury.

You just made a SB with Jimmy holding it down at QB. Yes, you hope your rookie is an immediate upgrade, but that’s not a given especially at the start of the season. Even if Jimmy keeps the team’s head above water for 4-6 games before a rookie takes over - why so willingly sell that off? Or even just outright release him? I don’t get it.

Yeah I think the best argument is probably "they have no incentive to tank given all their 1st round picks are gone so they might keep Jimmy Year 1 in case ____ isn't ready". Makes even more sense if that guy is Lance.

But you're also going to be dealing with a ton of other stuff that all points the other way. Jimmy is gonna do everything he can do get out, probably holds out all of training camp to try to force their hand. Then you'll be dealing with ownership not wanting to pay him $25 mil to do what Gardner Minshew could do for literally 1/25th the price. Then you consider one of the biggest advantages of having a highly drafted QB on a rookie deal is you aren't spending a ton of money at all on the QB position. That's totally out the window with Jimmy still there. Cap space rolls over too so that $25 million will be useful at some point.

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25 minutes ago, dhunt2402 said:

But you're also going to be dealing with a ton of other stuff that all points the other way. Jimmy is gonna do everything he can do get out, probably holds out all of training camp to try to force their hand. Then you'll be dealing with ownership not wanting to pay him $25 mil to do what Gardner Minshew could do for literally 1/25th the price. Then you consider one of the biggest advantages of having a highly drafted QB on a rookie deal is you aren't spending a ton of money at all on the QB position. That's totally out the window with Jimmy still there. Cap space rolls over too so that $25 million will be useful at some point.

I don’t think it’s a given that Jimmy pulls a Jalen Ramsey/Jamal Adams and demands a trade. We haven’t seen other QBs in similar situations (Bradford, Alex Smith, Fitzpatrick, etc) do that. It’s a rarity for QBs, honestly. I guess you can see it happening a little bit this season with other quarterbacks but that’s more because of organizational discourse than it is anything else. I don’t think there’s any guarantee that that happens with Jimmy, forcing his way out of SF because of the rookie. 

Minshew is also far from Jimmy, come on. Look what SF has done with Jimmy as their quarterback. They don’t have any trophies to show for it but they’ve proven that he’s a guy they can have success with (even if he’s just a placeholder at QB) - something Minshew is a total unknown in as far as inserting him into a new system. 

Look at it this way: if SF sat at 12 and didn’t grab a young QB, would they be contenders this year? If they stay healthy, I’d say absolutely they are. Are they contenders with Minshew at the helm? I’d say almost definitely not. That’s what Jimmy presents for the team if the rookie isn’t the starter out the gate. After this year you’re looking at extensions (or will be very shortly) for Warner (who’s probably going to break the bank for off-ball LBs), McGlinchey, Bosa, McGlinchey, Deebo, and plenty of starters. Mostert will be around the end of the typical shelf life for a RB. The team just PAID Trent. Kittle’s riding out his prime. I don’t think this is a team that’s okay with a throwaway season - which Minshew would definitely represent.

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37 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Fields is has been undervalued as a legit top pick talent this year.

Very true.  The Lawrence hype has let him fly under the radar somehow.  He's a legit baller

I still like Mac Jones.  A couple bad throws at a pro day don't negate everything he did this year.

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