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The Pats QB situation


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Big Mac Jones got fat during college. How hard is to get fat in your early 20's if you practice sports? Only tons of sugar can get you fat at that age unless terrible genetics which is worse.

Him in HS and Him in College:

CkEze_sUoAAhuEi.jpg

ElI_yxbX0AASBbQ?format=jpg&name=small

He's developing man ****.

Edited by LaFellSBXLIXMVP
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Just watched basically all the Mac Jones highlight videos.

Caveat; it is only from highlights, but here's what I saw:

 

- Always in shotgun. Like nearly every snap.

- Doesn't cycle through receivers. He locks on to the target. With it being a highlight video, they were mostly TD passes so it didn't really matter if he stared receiver down, but actually that will kill him in the NFL because the 1. receiver won't always be the best option

- Throws mostly good but a couple were underthrown

- Bombs away! Is this because receivers are so good deep, or is it because he's that powerful with deep throws?

 

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32 minutes ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

Big Mac Jones got fat during college. How hard is to get fat in your early 20's if you practice sports? Only tons of sugar can get you fat at that age unless terrible genetics which is worse.

Him in HS and Him in College:

CkEze_sUoAAhuEi.jpg

ElI_yxbX0AASBbQ?format=jpg&name=small

He's developing man ****.

Beer.

Loads of guys get fat at uni because of this. Beer and pizza.

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27 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Pretty much looks that way. Which would be what I predicted and it seemed, again, like blasphemy and terrible logic.

If he did go then it would surely mean he'd be the 4th QB off the board, which might mean Lance could be free? But damn, now the Colts are officially in the mix too, a lot of QB needy teams. I know they won't all look to the draft but Jones was supposed to be the guy who might be available at 15, now it doesn't look like any of the so called top 5 will be.

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8 minutes ago, ToonPatriot said:

If he did go then it would surely mean he'd be the 4th QB off the board, which might mean Lance could be free? But damn, now the Colts are officially in the mix too, a lot of QB needy teams. I know they won't all look to the draft but Jones was supposed to be the guy who might be available at 15, now it doesn't look like any of the so called top 5 will be.

Trey Lance has a strong tie to Minnesota dontcha know.

Grew up there and always dreamed of playing for the University. Probably would love to get picked by the Vikings at 14, and dontcha know? They have Kirk for one more szn from a cap standpoint before they are able to move on. Perfect for Lance to sit under and learn. My bet is Lance goes to them.

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27 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Trey Lance has a strong tie to Minnesota dontcha know.

Grew up there and always dreamed of playing for the University. Probably would love to get picked by the Vikings at 14, and dontcha know? They have Kirk for one more szn from a cap standpoint before they are able to move on. Perfect for Lance to sit under and learn. My bet is Lance goes to them.

Ah jeez, sucks to be us eh? - the worst impression ever but i've seen Fargo.

Guess it means we're bringing Jimmy the patient back - which if i'm honest is what I see us doing regardless of who's available at 15. 

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26 minutes ago, ToonPatriot said:

Ah jeez, sucks to be us eh? - the worst impression ever but i've seen Fargo.

Guess it means we're bringing Jimmy the patient back - which if i'm honest is what I see us doing regardless of who's available at 15. 

An option like that would be greatly dependent on if the 49ers draft a QB in the 1st.. if we see a run on QB's to the point where even Jones is taken top 10.. Jimmy G will be staying there for at least another year. They don't have another viable option so have no reason to cut / trade him. 

 

At that point we would be looking at a tier 2 second round QB like Trask,etc. .. a trade or a signing of a free agent reclamation project like Trubisky. 

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48 minutes ago, ToonPatriot said:

Guess it means we're bringing Jimmy the patient back - which if i'm honest is what I see us doing regardless of who's available at 15. 

I don't see Jimmy G coming back and I hope I am right. Not the worst QB option but not what I hope the solution to be for longer than 2021.

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This afternoon I was at the University of South Alabama working with a kid on footwork drills on their intramural fields. A guy that I have know for a while that works for the Senior Bowl stopped by and was talking to me. I asked him about Mac Jones and that I had heard he was basically a humble AJ McCarron. He said that in terms of Bama QBs Jones was more Jay Coker than any McCarron.

The guy knows I am a Patriots fan and he said that he was more impressed with Stidham a couple years ago than anything he has seen from Jones. He said that Jones was simply a product of the environment at Bama. 

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I can see a lot of Pats fans wanting the quick fix from trading for Stafford.. the question I have is at what cost are you doing so? Lions fans believe they will get a Jay Cutler level trade ( 2 1sts and a 3rd). Stafford is much older than Cutler was.. but a better player so it's hard to gauge. I think QB has to be the missing piece to a championship level roster for you to give up that much for a 32 year old QB. Trade for him and you have also have a 33 million dollar cap hit at QB ( over half of their expected free agent money gone).

 

Patricia being on the team could determine a lot.. if he LOVED Stafford, he may convince BB to trade for him and spend all the remaining FA money on receivers. We have no idea how good Stafford would be without a good receiving corp.. from what I remember he has had pretty good weapons throughout his career. Trading for an older, expensive QB puts you in win now mode.. which I don't see how you could rebuild both this offense and defense without lots of FA money or lots of draft picks.. trading for him you lose both. 


49ers / Broncos / Colts make the make the most sense to me.. any of those teams could get Stafford and go for deep playoff runs the next 3-5 years. He would put up big numbers in the Broncos offense.  49ers could be in a Super Bowl next year with him .. which would be my preferred destination for him, even if it increases the chances of Jimmy G back in town which I really don't want.

 

My question is how good to you feel your QB needs to be to win a super bowl?  Getting a Brady / Watson/ Brees / Mahomes / Wilson level player isn't happening ..  can you win it all with a QB in the 10-15 range?? I would say that Stafford is in that 10-15 range and you could win one with him.

Out of the last 20 years.. the following teams won a super bowl without an elite QB (imo)

  • Eagles ( Foles)
  • Denver (Manning was done at that point .. elite defense)
  • Baltimore (Flacco was elite that post season but still not an elite player)
  • Giants Twice ( Manning not elite but did well in playoffs.. elite pass rushes) 
  • Tampa Bay (Elite Defense.. I can't remember who the QB was)

The theme being you need a hell of a defense and a QB who 1) Doesn't turn the ball over 2) can make some big plays when it counts most. 


A big name I've heard is Ryan Tannehill.. how the Titans got such a steal and BB should have known Brady was leaving and found a way to pay Tannehill for when Brady left. It is hard to tell if Tannehill would be the same level of player without an elite running back, mainly because so much of his game comes off elite play action pass performances. Major point being that nobody in the league believed he was more than a backup.. or he would have gotten more money. Do you feel that you could win a super bowl with a Tannehill style offense on the Patriots? Based off 2020 I think this is actually the direction BB wants to go instead of an offense dependent on elite QB play. Which to me hurts chances of getting Stafford, because with Stafford I think you'd build the offense around him instead of the running game.

The Harris/Michel/etc. platoon are obviously nowhere near Derrick Henry, but I wonder if BB wants to transition the offense in that direction long term or if it was just out of necessity this past year. In 2020, the Patriots ran the ball 51.3% of the time ( 2nd behind only the Ravens).. if BB is looking to stick to something similar to that, a play action oriented offense would make a lot of sense. 2019 for instance they were at 59% passing, so it is hard to tell if BB prefers to having a passing centric offense or if it was Brady who wanted to pass more ( he had no weapons then either, so that couldn't have related to passing so much more). I sadly couldn't find any stats to show what % of those passing plays in 2020 were play action.. but I would guess off the top of my head a good amount of them were. This would mean transitioning away from the super quick passing game which essentially replaced the running game for years.. and focus more on play action / down field passes when teams are caught off guard (AJ Brown being perfect for that). Stafford could work well in this style.. but he's never had run focused teams from what I recall so I'm really not sure.

 

Surprise, surprise .. this brings me to another scenario where I feel Minshew is the best option for the Patriots to get this offseason. I've focused a majority of my research on his rookie year.. because the Jaguars this past season threw the ball 66% of the time ( tops in the league).. with a suspect offensive line, a rookie of the year candidate at RB.. and an average receiving corp. Furthering my point that their coaching staff was horrendous and no player could develop in that environment. 

Reference video further analyzing his rookie year below.

I think he lacked the year 2 jump because of an awful coaching staff that put 0 effort into building an offense around him. They 100% planned to tank for Trevor this season and put him in a position to fail ( I'm sure ownership wasn't very happy when he started 1-0 dominating the Colts). 

Give him a full offseason with the team.. Josh to scheme an offense around his strengths.. and $/draft picks to put weapons around him.. and I think you have a better Patriots team 2021 and beyond with him than Stafford. He isn't as good as Stafford.. but you can put 4-5 players around him that you couldn't do if you traded for Stafford which would make you overall a better team.   

Some important highlights from his rookie season: 

  • 75.3% Catchable Pass % (1st among rookies)
  • Passer Rating 91.2 (1st among rookies)
  • 5.9 Sack % (1st among rookies)
  • 3 Game Winning Drives (1st among rookies)
  • 129 Passer rating on passes of over 20 yards (1st in the league)
  • 0 INT on passes of over 20 yards
  • His ability to keep plays alive in the pocket gives his poor receivers time to get open 
  • 135 Passer Rating on play action ( and Jags were stupidly lowest PA rate in the league)
  • 76.9% Completion % on play action
  • 0 INT on play action

 

Draft a developmental QB this year in the 3rd round.. trade a 4th for Minshew.. and you've got dramatically more assets than trading 2-4 picks for Stafford. 2 years of Minshew at 0 money compared to 20-30 million of Stafford makes sense to me.. because you won't win anything with Stafford. You build your team then you can trade for an older QB to win now ( ala Tampa) or trade away an entire draft to jump up for a QB you want (ala KC) if Minshew can't get the job done.

 

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