Apparition Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Keep in mind, this is something that Stephen A. Smith suggested, and while I don't expect it to happen, it would be a fascinating scenario. In 2004 the cluster of QBs selected at the top of the draft resembles the one that 2021 is expected to have, with Lawrence as the consensus #1, followed by Fields and Lance in the top-10. Let's say the top 10 in the draft order look something like this: 1. NYJ 2. JAX 3. MIA (f/HOU) 4. NYG 5. ATL 6. CIN 7. DAL 8. DEN 9. MIN 10. NWE/PHI/WAS (depending on who wins the NFCE) Among those, the bolded teams would go into the draft with QB as their most pressing need and would likely pick the best QB available, while the italicized teams would potentially be in the QB market (in Dallas' case it's predicated on what they do with Dak), but also have pressing needs at other positions that could compel them to pass on drafting one that high. In '04 the Manning trade cost the Giants the following: rd 1/pick 4 (Philip Rivers) rd 3/pick 65 rd 5/pick 144 rd 1/pick 12 in 2005 Presumably a trade from 4 to 1 would cost the Giants roughly the same as it did in '04, although Lawrence is objectively a better prospect than Manning was, so it's not 100% certain. A trade from 9 to 1 would probably cost the Vikings 3 first rounders, rather than 2, plus whatever else the Jets might extract from them. And a trade from 10 to 1 would cost the WFT even more than that (there's no way the Jets would trade Lawrence to the Pats, even for 10 years worth of 1sts). If you're the Jets, do you pull the trigger on any of those offers? Do you trade out of the pick pre-draft, not knowing whether you'll be able to get your second choice at QB at pick 4 or 5 or whatever, because surely JAX/NYG/DAL/DEN will be looking to snap up one of Fields/Lance if they land between #1 and your new draft spot. Do you do as the Chargers did and take Lawrence anyway, then see where Fields and Lance end up, and try to work out a suitable trade? What if the Patriots completely collapse and end up picking a QB higher than 10, cutting off one of your viable trade options? What if something wild happens and both Fields and Lance fall out of the top-10 altogether? Do you dare sell Lawrence to the highest bidder and roll with Darnold for another season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew39k Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 If I'm the Jets I trade out in a heartbeat. I eyeball that Vikings pick at 9 if it comes with 3 firsts or I take the giants package at 4 then look to move down second time(perhaps still to the Vikings for a pair of firsts so they can grab fields or lance. The double drop would in theory net The 9th overall plus two additional firsts a 3rd and a 5th plus some other picks too. Tacking that on to the two firsts we got from Seattle would give us so many picks to rebuild this team. We would be in a position to sign a vet QB to compete with Darnold next year while we bring in a new HC and let him implement his system. The following offseason we let him decide whether he can make it work with Darnold or he can draft a QB to develop that fits the offense he has already installed. By bring a QB in after its been installed the team will be able to help the QB adjust to the NFL instead of just hoping that the QB is going to be some kind of magic savior. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btfd16 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 IMO Jacksonville has a far more pressing QB need than the Giants. Less invested also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 He's going to force his way to Dallas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamondbull424 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I don’t think the value you present would be the most likely value. I liken this situation more closely to the 2012 draft in terms of value it would take. We don’t know what Andrew Luck would’ve accrued in pick value, but we do know that RG3, a QB that had closed the gap some to Luck netted three 1sts and a 2nd to move up 4 spots. I think this is a more realistic precedent of what type of deal to expect. 2004 occurred prior to QBs being placed on rookie scales, while 2012 was after the fact. So considering Lawrence is just as, if not more hyped than Andrew Luck, I think it stands to reason that the RG3 offer would be the starting negotiating price for that pick. And I think teams enough teams would be willing to foot the bill. A team like the Broncos in fact I think would be a “surprise” player. They have the offense mostly in place for a Lawrence to thrive right away. They’ll likely have a new head coach in place. Drew Lock could be flipped for a day two pick. But I wouldn’t be shocked if they offered three 1sts and three or four 2nds. Elway strikes me as the type to be aggressive when he sees his QB and while I’m sure they’re perfectly “comfortable” with Drew Lock, if they’re within range of Lawrence, I think they strike hard. This is of course assuming that Lawrence decides to pull an Eli Manning and doesn’t want to play for the Jets... because otherwise, I think they take him. So if a deal is done, I think the deal would be done ahead of time. I don’t think they wait until draft night. I think the team making the trade will have already been in contact with Lawrence before making such a move to make sure he’s okay with playing for their franchise. Once they do so, the deal is finalized and we’ll already know it a couple days before draft day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Buck Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, drew39k said: If I'm the Jets I trade out in a heartbeat. I eyeball that Vikings pick at 9 if it comes with 3 firsts or I take the giants package at 4 then look to move down second time(perhaps still to the Vikings for a pair of firsts so they can grab fields or lance. The double drop would in theory net The 9th overall plus two additional firsts a 3rd and a 5th plus some other picks too. Tacking that on to the two firsts we got from Seattle would give us so many picks to rebuild this team. We would be in a position to sign a vet QB to compete with Darnold next year while we bring in a new HC and let him implement his system. The following offseason we let him decide whether he can make it work with Darnold or he can draft a QB to develop that fits the offense he has already installed. By bring a QB in after its been installed the team will be able to help the QB adjust to the NFL instead of just hoping that the QB is going to be some kind of magic savior. Sold! I'd be more than happy to give up 3 first round picks to finally have a true franchise quarterback after a 43-year drought. I don't know if the Vikings would do that, but they should! Edited October 28, 2020 by Uncle Buck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Ian Rappoport said last week Minshew was in danger of getting benched... I'm fairly sure QB is a pressing need/they plan on going QB barring something miraculous happening. As for the ones you bolded, I'd say MIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Buck Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) Maybe when we play you guys it will actually end up being the "Trevor Bowl." I sure don't see the Vikings picking as low as 9th overall though. We should both be close to the top when the season is over. Edited October 28, 2020 by Uncle Buck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjapirate Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 36 minutes ago, MKnight82 said: He's going to force his way to Dallas. He's not old enough to ever see Dallas be good and dallas is currently trying to not pay a QB. I feel like it would be dumb if he wanted to go there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerbyRam Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 History shows that things can change quickly in the NFL, but if I’m Lawrence then I would have some frank discussions with the front office of the Jets. Darnold is far from awful, however he’s really struggled in that team and it’s really unsettled. Adams is a great player and fought his way out, they’re looking to trade their first pick from 2019 according to some sources. They cut their highly paid running back because of differences of opinion. If they can make a good hire for HC and dress it up as a new beginning then there is a lot of places worse than New York to lead a franchise, but if the draft was tomorrow I wouldn’t blame him for not being excited about going to do that set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 If he does force his way out, I don't think it would it be to another dumpster fire franchise in the Giants or Jags. It'd be teams like the Vikings or Broncos, who are teams with weapons in place and some semblance of success under their current regime in 1 way or another (Vikings have made several postseasons under current staff, Broncos went to SB under current FO)... but to move up from 9 to 1 for Lawrence? That's gotta take at least the package the Rams got when the Redskins moved up from 14 to 2 (for a lesser prospect), if not more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The Vikings and Broncos at least have a history of winning. I’d try to force my way to those teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Miami is intriguing I mean Fitz had them Looking like a playoff team and he gets benched for Tua. Got to think they are playing him to see if Lawrence is worth going after. I never saw a qb get benched after playing so well. I also don't see what people see in Denver and Minnesota right now. Denver has failed to sevel a qb since Cutler. Lock looked promising last year and they can the oc replaced by a guy who only had career success with a 7 year vet with Case Keenum at the time, and Daniel Jones who probably from a mental and fundamental process was one of the most pro ready QBs to enter the nfl in a decade. Being mentored by the Manning's, Cutcliff as a legendary qb coach, and also went to duke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, thebestever6 said: Miami is intriguing I mean Fitz had them Looking like a playoff team and he gets benched for Tua. Got to think they are playing him to see if Lawrence is worth going after. I never saw a qb get benched after playing so well. There's no way the Jets are trading him within the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'm going to Minnesota or Denver if I'm Fields. However, if you go to Denver, you're competing with Patrick Mahomes for the division every year, whereas if you go to Minnesota, that division is really wide open in about 2-3 years once Stafford and Rodgers are gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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