2020 QB Rankings (by the numbers, final)

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Did this last season, a snapshot look at various passing statistics, ratings, grades, etc. weighed equally to get a single number behind each QB's season. This ranking is purely based on the metrics mentioned below, it is in no way my, or anybody's, actual QB ranking.

I will update the thread every week or so. At the moment I incorporate the following, but am open to adding more:

 

 

Passer Rating= completion %, Y/A, TD% and INT%

ANY/A= similar to passer rating but weighed differently + sacks and yards lost on sacks are added to the equation

DVOA= the outcome of every play is compared to the league average in that same situation, every box score factor possible is utilized. For QBs, DVOA does not include running, unlike QBR.

QBR= similar to DVOA, but with a touch of subjectivity that goes beyond box score (drops, bad plays that weren't fault of QB, etc.), and a clutch factor (more weight towards plays in situations deemed clutch)

PFF= every play is looked at and given a grade, the final grade is the cumulative score of every play normalized to a 0-100 scale

 

Passer rating and ANY/A are basic box score based metrics. DVOA and QBR are EPA based metrics. PFF is the wild card, being purely iTest, but they are quoted enough that I think it warranted including their grades.

 

Thoughts on including completion % over expectation? Really only measures 1 aspect of QB play (accuracy), while these other 5 try to paint a whole picture, but I am seeing analytics twitter loving this metric as of late. It looks at their expected completion % (completion provability is based on several factors including: air yards, WR separation, WR location, nearest pass rusher, etc.) compared to their actual completion %. 

 

 

Included are QBs with 100 or more passes in 2020.

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	Avg
1	Aaron Rodgers	1	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Patrick Mahomes	3	2	4	2	2	2.6
3	Josh Allen	4	3	5	3	5	4.0
4	Deshaun Watson	2	13	3	5	3	5.2
5	Ryan Tannehill	5	4	7	6	4	5.2
6	Tom Brady	10	11	2	4	9	7.2
7	Dak Prescott	12	5	8	8	6	7.8
8	Drew Brees	6	7	21	7	7	9.6
9	Derek Carr	11	12	9	9	8	9.8
10	Russell Wilson	8	9	6	14	17	10.8
11	Kirk Cousins	9	19	10	10	10	11.6
12	Justin Herbert	15	14	16	11	16	14.4
13	Baker Mayfield	18	10	14	18	13	14.6
14	Matthew Stafford	17	16	13	15	14	15.0
15	Lamar Jackson	13	8	15	22	18	15.2
16	Philip Rivers	16	20	18	12	12	15.6
17	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20	6	20	17	15	15.6
18	Matt Ryan	24	17	11	16	19	17.4
19	Kyler Murray	21	15	12	19	20	17.4
20	C.J. Beathard	7	30	25	23	11	19.2
21	Jimmy Garoppolo	25	23	29	13	25	23.0
22	Ben Roethlisberger	22	24	26	21	22	23.0
23	Teddy Bridgewater	26	18	33	20	21	23.6
24	Jared Goff	27	26	22	24	23	24.4
25	Taysom Hill	14	25	27	36	26	25.6
26	Joe Burrow	28	28	19	25	30	26.0
27	Gardner Minshew	19	32	28	29	24	26.4
28	Mitchell Trubisky	23	21	37	26	27	26.8
29	Andy Dalton	29	29	24	33	34	29.8
30	Daniel Jones	36	22	17	38	38	30.2
31	Tua Tagovailoa	30	31	34	28	33	31.2
32	Cam Newton	32	35	23	35	32	31.4
33	Nick Mullens	31	37	39	27	29	32.6
34	Joe Flacco	35	27	42	30	31	33.0
35	Nick Foles	34	38	31	32	39	34.8
36	Drew Lock	40	34	36	31	36	35.4
37	Jalen Hurts	39	39	41	34	28	36.2
38	Mike Glennon	37	42	30	37	37	36.6
39	Brandon Allen	33	36	40	39	35	36.6
40	Carson Wentz	42	33	35	41	43	38.8
41	Alex Smith	38	43	32	42	40	39.0
42	Sam Darnold	43	40	38	40	41	40.4
43	Dwayne Haskins	41	44	43	43	42	42.6
44	Jake Luton	44	41	44	44	44	43.4

 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by RandyMossIsBoss

[Apparition]

lol @ QBR 

[Jakuvious]

I have to imagine those interceptions just shredded Wilson's DVOA.

[Matts4313]

2 hailmary INTs dropped Dak quite a bit in these rankings. But I love that you do this RMIB!

[AntonChigurh]

Advanced ratings are garbage. 

The only think advanced statistics should do is provide some nuance to what you see on the film. 

[Asciimo]

i think i'll stick to the eye test but cool list

[Matts4313]

31 minutes ago, AntonChigurh said:

Advanced ratings are garbage. 

The only think advanced statistics should do is provide some nuance to what you see on the film. 

 

30 minutes ago, Asciimo said:

i think i'll stick to the eye test but cool list

Eye test are the PFF rankings. This is a list of every major advanced analytical site in the world. The same numbers GM/FO's/Coaches use. So I am sure your (biased) "eye test" is better, though.

[UncleAdamz]

3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Eye test are the PFF rankings. This is a list of every major advanced analytical site in the world. The same numbers GM/FO's/Coaches use. So I am sure your (biased) "eye test" is better, though.

Can't believe they have Cousins at 9 though. I haven't seen too much of him, but he hasn't shown me anything that would give me confidence in him.

Edited October 29, 2020 by UncleAdamz

[BroncoSojia]

Pain.

[Joe_is_the_best]

Drew Lock worse than Darnold? This is like a bad dream. 

[Blackstar12]

Watching Rivers this year no way is he above Big Ben lol.

[Bearerofnews]

This just continues to confirm for me PR is the most accurate assessment of qb play. It aligns with what i see on the field. I wanna try to create a qb rating formula using some next gen metrics, PR data and other advanced metrics. 

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Updated through week 11.

[Archimedes]

11 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Updated through week 11.

I really like your chart, but minor nitpick. Mahomes leads the league in ANY/A. He’s not 2nd.

I also find myself questioning PFF quite a bit more after this year... Brady being a top 5 qb this doesn’t pass the stats or eye test.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

6 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

I really like your chart, but minor nitpick. Mahomes leads the league in ANY/A. He’s not 2nd.

I also find myself questioning PFF quite a bit more after this year... Brady being a top 5 qb this doesn’t pass the stats or eye test.

Damn... Good catch, unfortunately 1 being wrong usually means all of it was wrong for that stat (recorded the new ANY/A numbers but maybe forgot to put them into final chart), and that seems to be the case here. Fixed for ANY/A and updated final chart.