RandyMossIsBoss Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) Did this last season, a snapshot look at various passing statistics, ratings, grades, etc. weighed equally to get a single number behind each QB's season. This ranking is purely based on the metrics mentioned below, it is in no way my, or anybody's, actual QB ranking. I will update the thread every week or so. At the moment I incorporate the following, but am open to adding more: Passer Rating= completion %, Y/A, TD% and INT% ANY/A= similar to passer rating but weighed differently + sacks and yards lost on sacks are added to the equation DVOA= the outcome of every play is compared to the league average in that same situation, every box score factor possible is utilized. For QBs, DVOA does not include running, unlike QBR. QBR= similar to DVOA, but with a touch of subjectivity that goes beyond box score (drops, bad plays that weren't fault of QB, etc.), and a clutch factor (more weight towards plays in situations deemed clutch) PFF= every play is looked at and given a grade, the final grade is the cumulative score of every play normalized to a 0-100 scale Passer rating and ANY/A are basic box score based metrics. DVOA and QBR are EPA based metrics. PFF is the wild card, being purely iTest, but they are quoted enough that I think it warranted including their grades. Thoughts on including completion % over expectation? Really only measures 1 aspect of QB play (accuracy), while these other 5 try to paint a whole picture, but I am seeing analytics twitter loving this metric as of late. It looks at their expected completion % (completion provability is based on several factors including: air yards, WR separation, WR location, nearest pass rusher, etc.) compared to their actual completion %. Included are QBs with 100 or more passes in 2020. QB PR QBR PFF DVOA ANY/A Avg 1 Aaron Rodgers 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 2 Patrick Mahomes 3 2 4 2 2 2.6 3 Josh Allen 4 3 5 3 5 4.0 4 Deshaun Watson 2 13 3 5 3 5.2 5 Ryan Tannehill 5 4 7 6 4 5.2 6 Tom Brady 10 11 2 4 9 7.2 7 Dak Prescott 12 5 8 8 6 7.8 8 Drew Brees 6 7 21 7 7 9.6 9 Derek Carr 11 12 9 9 8 9.8 10 Russell Wilson 8 9 6 14 17 10.8 11 Kirk Cousins 9 19 10 10 10 11.6 12 Justin Herbert 15 14 16 11 16 14.4 13 Baker Mayfield 18 10 14 18 13 14.6 14 Matthew Stafford 17 16 13 15 14 15.0 15 Lamar Jackson 13 8 15 22 18 15.2 16 Philip Rivers 16 20 18 12 12 15.6 17 Ryan Fitzpatrick 20 6 20 17 15 15.6 18 Matt Ryan 24 17 11 16 19 17.4 19 Kyler Murray 21 15 12 19 20 17.4 20 C.J. Beathard 7 30 25 23 11 19.2 21 Jimmy Garoppolo 25 23 29 13 25 23.0 22 Ben Roethlisberger 22 24 26 21 22 23.0 23 Teddy Bridgewater 26 18 33 20 21 23.6 24 Jared Goff 27 26 22 24 23 24.4 25 Taysom Hill 14 25 27 36 26 25.6 26 Joe Burrow 28 28 19 25 30 26.0 27 Gardner Minshew 19 32 28 29 24 26.4 28 Mitchell Trubisky 23 21 37 26 27 26.8 29 Andy Dalton 29 29 24 33 34 29.8 30 Daniel Jones 36 22 17 38 38 30.2 31 Tua Tagovailoa 30 31 34 28 33 31.2 32 Cam Newton 32 35 23 35 32 31.4 33 Nick Mullens 31 37 39 27 29 32.6 34 Joe Flacco 35 27 42 30 31 33.0 35 Nick Foles 34 38 31 32 39 34.8 36 Drew Lock 40 34 36 31 36 35.4 37 Jalen Hurts 39 39 41 34 28 36.2 38 Mike Glennon 37 42 30 37 37 36.6 39 Brandon Allen 33 36 40 39 35 36.6 40 Carson Wentz 42 33 35 41 43 38.8 41 Alex Smith 38 43 32 42 40 39.0 42 Sam Darnold 43 40 38 40 41 40.4 43 Dwayne Haskins 41 44 43 43 42 42.6 44 Jake Luton 44 41 44 44 44 43.4 Edited January 5, 2021 by RandyMossIsBoss 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 lol @ QBR 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I have to imagine those interceptions just shredded Wilson's DVOA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 hailmary INTs dropped Dak quite a bit in these rankings. But I love that you do this RMIB! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonChigurh Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Advanced ratings are garbage. The only think advanced statistics should do is provide some nuance to what you see on the film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asciimo Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 i think i'll stick to the eye test but cool list Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 31 minutes ago, AntonChigurh said: Advanced ratings are garbage. The only think advanced statistics should do is provide some nuance to what you see on the film. 30 minutes ago, Asciimo said: i think i'll stick to the eye test but cool list Eye test are the PFF rankings. This is a list of every major advanced analytical site in the world. The same numbers GM/FO's/Coaches use. So I am sure your (biased) "eye test" is better, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleAdamz Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Eye test are the PFF rankings. This is a list of every major advanced analytical site in the world. The same numbers GM/FO's/Coaches use. So I am sure your (biased) "eye test" is better, though. Can't believe they have Cousins at 9 though. I haven't seen too much of him, but he hasn't shown me anything that would give me confidence in him. Edited October 29, 2020 by UncleAdamz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoSojia Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Pain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe_is_the_best Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Drew Lock worse than Darnold? This is like a bad dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Watching Rivers this year no way is he above Big Ben lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 This just continues to confirm for me PR is the most accurate assessment of qb play. It aligns with what i see on the field. I wanna try to create a qb rating formula using some next gen metrics, PR data and other advanced metrics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Updated through week 11. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archimedes Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: Updated through week 11. I really like your chart, but minor nitpick. Mahomes leads the league in ANY/A. He’s not 2nd. I also find myself questioning PFF quite a bit more after this year... Brady being a top 5 qb this doesn’t pass the stats or eye test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Archimedes said: I really like your chart, but minor nitpick. Mahomes leads the league in ANY/A. He’s not 2nd. I also find myself questioning PFF quite a bit more after this year... Brady being a top 5 qb this doesn’t pass the stats or eye test. Damn... Good catch, unfortunately 1 being wrong usually means all of it was wrong for that stat (recorded the new ANY/A numbers but maybe forgot to put them into final chart), and that seems to be the case here. Fixed for ANY/A and updated final chart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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