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Why do the Chargers keep blowing big leads?


Slingin' Sammy

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Honestly, it all comes down to Lynn coaching scared.

KC game - hey, it's Mahomes, but let's try to punt it to him on 4th and 1, and I'm sure he won't score.

NO game - hey, we're up 10 points with Herbert's arm - but let's run the ball 18x on 1st down, for 2 YPC, and see how it goes.

DEN game - same redux.

And the thing is - it's been that way for THREE years before.   At least 2, if not 3 games where Lynn's approach has snatched 95+ percent win probability games from the Chargers' hands.  

It's tough, because Lynn is a great leader of men, and it's clear they're ready to play....but his game management is literally bottom-3.  Worse, it's not changing.   His post-game interview was horrific.   When you lose that many games with 95+ percent win probability - guess what, it's the coaching.  

The silver lining for Chargers fans is they will get much better draft position than they deserve, they have their franchise QB, and their already-good D gets Derwin James back next year.    That's going to be the #1 spot for a hot HC candidate to go to.  I'd call Eric Bienemy to LAC as the odds-on favorite at this stage.

The crazy thing is - from Marty Schottenheimer to Norv Turner to Lynn - it's ALL about coaching game management.  Hopefully whoever they hire, they actually make game management a priority (even having a game management sideline guy, to feed him the info that somehow eludes HC's like Lynn).

You're forgetting it's Dean Spanos and John Spanos the ones making the hire, and you can bet money, they'll screw it up.

 

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I legit want to fight Gus and if i wasnt permanently banned from Twitter, id be posting to players and telling them to call out Gus for putting them in horrible position in the 2nd half. Soft zones, refusing the blitz when you only rush 4 and they are gassed, no stunts, no disguises, hardly ever any man and press. 

/rant

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It's their DNA? No

Poor run game? No

Aren't good? Possibly, but ...No.

 

  On 10/15/2020 at 2:25 PM, Hunter2_1 said:

 

 

LAC: They have the 8th most efficient passing offense in NFL despite playing the number 1 toughest schedule so far of pass defenses. So that's with a rookie QB (who is excellent apparently), with injuries to receiving corps and OL. Still a top 10 passing offense.

HOWEVER, they rank 30th in run efficiency despite playing  the 11th easiest schedule of rush defending teams. So they're playing tough pass defenses but killing it, playing soft rush defenses but laying an egg. So what should the LAC do? Pass it, right....

Well, they have been the 6th most run heavy team on the first 2 downs in the NFL. On 1st down they average 4th most rush attempts. 60% of plays on 1st downs are runs, and these have been averaging 3.1 YPC. NFL average is 1.4 YPC more than that. 

Against NO on first downs, they called 18 run plays and 10 passes. these runs averaged 1.1 YPC. Passes on first down averages 8.4 yards per att. 

All losses have been by 1 score or less.

 

 

It's still going on.

In the win over the Jaguars, they DID address the above- The Chargers passed more on 1st and 2nd downs. Would they do it again against Denver? Yes, they stuck with it. They passed the ball on 65% of 1st and 2nd downs (higher than vs Jag). 4th most pass heavy team of the week, and had a 24-10 lead going into the 4th Q.

Then this happens;

- 1st and 10 on DEN 24 looking to put the game beyond reach. Run on 1st down and 2nd down. 3rd and long - interception. DEN gets a TD on their next drive

- 24-17, driving again, to DEN 32, 1st and 10. Run on 1st down, run on 2nd down, now in 3rd and long and throw an incompletion and settle for FG. Clock stops. DEN gets a TD on their next drive

- 27-24, driving again, to DEN 17 yard line. A 1st down could end game. 1st and 10 - run on first down; penalty. 1st and 24 now on DEN 31, run on 1st down. 3rd and long, incompletion, settle for FG. 30-24. DEN scores again.

 

So they abandoned what made them dominate this game, AGAIN. They abandon passing and get all conservative. That's how they do this all the time.

Lynn is not fit for purpose.

Edited by Hunter2_1
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I am a big fan of Lynn but I think he is a solid OC and needs to go back to that. His conservative approach counts on a strong defense performance late in the game and they come up short. Herbert seems to be on the right track to be the real deal for them but they need to continue to put the foot on the gas and stop playing defense on the offense by trying to kill clock. They need to constantly play as if they are down 10 not up 10. A new coaching staff may do them some good or adjustments to the defensive side of the ball with coaching change. 

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On 11/2/2020 at 8:44 AM, Broncofan said:

Honestly, it all comes down to Lynn coaching scared.

KC game - hey, it's Mahomes, but let's try to punt it to him on 4th and 1, and I'm sure he won't score.

NO game - hey, we're up 10 points with Herbert's arm - but let's run the ball 18x on 1st down, for 2 YPC, and see how it goes.

DEN game - same redux.

And the thing is - it's been that way for THREE years before.   At least 2, if not 3 games where Lynn's approach has snatched 95+ percent win probability games from the Chargers' hands.  

It's tough, because Lynn is a great leader of men, and it's clear they're ready to play....but his game management is literally bottom-3.  Worse, it's not changing.   His post-game interview was horrific.   When you lose that many games with 95+ percent win probability - guess what, it's the coaching.  

The silver lining for Chargers fans is they will get much better draft position than they deserve, they have their franchise QB, and their already-good D gets Derwin James back next year.    That's going to be the #1 spot for a hot HC candidate to go to.  I'd call Eric Bienemy to LAC as the odds-on favorite at this stage.

The crazy thing is - from Marty Schottenheimer to Norv Turner to Lynn - it's ALL about coaching game management.  Hopefully whoever they hire, they actually make game management a priority (even having a game management sideline guy, to feed him the info that somehow eludes HC's like Lynn).

Marty doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the other coaches. Since Marty we've had coaches that were scared. Marty was conservative but never scared. He'd have finally gotten his superbowl appearance if Marlon Mcree had just gone down with the ball instead of trying to make a bigger play. Drayton Florence inexplicably headbutting a Patriot after they failed a conversion on 3rd down. Chargers find the most unique ways to shoot themselves in the foot but Marty was no McCoy, Turner or Lynn. He changed this team from annual top 5 pick to an actual contender. He wasn't the best coach but at least he was average to above average.

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On 11/2/2020 at 7:29 AM, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

I wouldn't. They scored a certified baller in Herbert and are gonna have a premium pick in the next draft. They're young and will only get better.

Now, onto the losses it's not like the Falcons'. A veteran team that had much higher expectations. Charges just got way ahead in the scoring in games they shouldn't be even competing and found themselves leading against Pat's chiefs, Brady's bucs and Brees' Saints because their rookie QB is just amazing and then 'came back to earth', happens in every sport. Broncos was the first bad loss of the bunch  and now they are picking ahead of the Broncos.

their coaching staff holds them back

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On 11/1/2020 at 5:59 PM, Slingin' Sammy said:

Bad defense? Poor coaching and adjustments? Bad luck? Or even being lucky early in games before regressing to the mean? It feels like this is the fourth or fifth game this season where they’ve squandered a double-digit lead. Hard to blame Herbert since he’s given them all you could ask for and then some for a rookie QB with essentially no preseason. 

It's what they has to does 

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If LAC keep passing the ball on first and second downs, like they do in the first 3 quarters, they'll blow ATL away. 

If they flip the conservative switch whilst having the lead in the 4th, they'll come straight off the field, and Ryan will stab them in the heart. 

Edited by Hunter2_1
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