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Early 1 Round Mock Draft

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2 hours ago, Mastercheddaar said:

Our D has been pretty good this year and I think it'll improve.

I think that's more a function of playing the Ravens, Luck-less Colts, Bengals, and Jets tbh.  

I do think the Browns clearly need to go QB though.  Kizer is not the answer.

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On 10/10/2017 at 8:14 PM, Ozzy said:
Ok so all of these players are not included in the 1st round, to me that is shocking especially for a few.  Sure some you think might not declare or whatever, but honestly 75-90% of all the JR or RS SOPH I listed will come out early this year I feel.
 
Derwin James Florida State S JR 
Sam Darnold USC QB RS SOPH
Christian Wilkins Clemson DL JR
Orlando Brown Oklahoma OT RS JR
Mike Gesicki Penn State TE SR 
Tarvarus McFadden Florida State CB JR  
Minkah Fitzpatrick Alabama S/CB JR 
Clelin Ferrell Clemson DE RS SOPH 
Malik Jefferson Texas OLB JR 
Mike McGlinchey Notre Dame OT RS SR 
Quin Blanding Virginia S SR 
Jerome Baker Ohio State OLB JR
Calvin Ridley Alabama WR JR 
Roquan Smith Georgia ILB JR
Martez  Ivey Florida OG JR 
Mitch Hyatt Clemson OT JR 
Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame WR JR 
Jessie Bates III Wake Forest S RS SOPH 
Carlton Davis Auburn CB JR
Deontay Burnett USC WR JR

Derwin James is a redshirt sophomore so I won't include him until he declares.
Sam Darnold is a redshirt sophomore so I won't include him until he declares.
I have watched Christian Wilkins 2016 tape and a little bit of 2017, did not look like a guy I need to have in the 1st round.
Orlando Brown doesn't look like a 1st rounder to me, way too much he needs to improve on. Going to depend on mental things for him, could lose his confidence/get stuck on a team with a bad coach and suck like an Ereck Flowers, or he could land on a team with good leadership/good coaches and develop into a good player like an Andrus Peat. I'd rather take a guy I'm confident will be good in the 1st round, I'll take the guy that needs a lot of work later on.
Haven't watched Mike Gesicki yet
I've watched the 2016 tape on Tarvarus McFadden, didn't look like a 1st rounder to me. I'll get to his 2017 tape eventually.
I've watched the 2016 tape on Minkah Fitzpatrick, didn't look like a 1st rounder to me. I'll get to his 2017 tape eventually as well.
Clelin Ferrell is a redshirt sophomore so I won't include him until he declares.
Malik Jefferson didn't look good from what I saw the past two years, he will likely be one of the last players I watch if he declares (he shouldn't).
I considered Mike McGlinchey for some of the last few picks, he would likely be one of the first few players selected if I did 2 rounds instead of 1.
Haven't gotten to Quin Blanding's 2017 tape, he was a borderline 1st round player based on his 2016 tape. 
Haven't watched Jerome Baker, don't remember him ever standing out when I've watched Ohio State's defense.
Calvin Ridley is a borderline 1st/2nd round guy to me, he would probably be one of the first players taken if I did a 2 round mock draft.
Roquan Smith has shown some upside, but the hype on him seems to be getting a little out of hand. Haven't gone deep into any 2017 film, but from what I've seen people seem to be ignoring his flaws.
Martez Ivey wasn't great at guard and hasn't looked good at tackle. Living off of his recruiting hype.
Mitch Hyatt isn't that good, he's also living off of recruiting hype.
Equanimeous St. Brown has flashed some, haven't evaluated him deeply so far this year, although he didn't stand out as a 1st round player in previous years.
Jessie Bates III is a redshirt sophomore so I won't include him until he declares.
I loved what I saw from Carlton Davis in 2016, just haven't gotten around to seeing him at all yet this year. I anticipate I'll have a 1st round grade on him when I watch his 2017 performances.
Haven't watched Deontay Burnett, don't remember him standing out too much when I've watched USC's offense.

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The Browns will almost certainly go QB with their 1st pick (likely the 1st overall again) after Kizer's season and subsequent benching. They won't go with back to back edge guys with the #1 overall pick, especially since Ogbah is pretty capable as a starter. Their biggest needs are QB, WR, RB, CB, and FS, in that order.

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On 10/10/2017 at 8:14 PM, Ozzy said:

Ferguson is good but not a 1st round talent, he is not better than Mayfield, Rudolph or even Stidham not to mention Rosen, Jackson or Darnold.  Fitzpatrick as a 1st rounder, now that is way out there I think, the kid played awful against Georgia a very pro style defense.  He is a runner first and if he could not run the ball he would not be very good.  He will not declare early for the draft I feel because he is not ready at all.  

 

Roquan Smith is way better than Joseph at ILB, is even better than Jewell in terms of potential and upside as well.  Tate is a walking injury, having a good year but is injured so often and does not get great separation speed either, nice to have a freshman QB though that forces him the football, good for him anyway.  Jaire Alexander, especially with the injury, I would be shocked to see him picked that high, good player but even before the injury he was not a top 5 pick by any means.  I agree with Washington and Hurst sure is climbing, could easily climb his way into being a high pick like that ,especially with how good he is playing.   

 

Mata'afa I still question a little, very quick and interesting as a talent but not sure how rare he is athletically, not very elite physically.  And Street I just do not see him as an elite defensive lineman at this point, at least not 1st rounder with his lack of elite pass rushing skills.  Miller is a fine talent at WR but I see teams sleeping on him and falling to the 2nd or 3rd round.  Mason Cole is good but I have him as more of a 2nd round guy, he is no were as good as Orlando Brown or McGlinchey, much less Connor Williams who will see if he even comes out or not.  Vea I like a lot as well, great talent.  Key going #1 I question, he has not looked like a #1 overall pick so far this year at all.  

 

Darius Jackson of Jacksonville State could climb up in the draft I think, super quick and rare ability to turn the corner as a pass rusher, undersized but could do great things in a 3/4.  Crosby on Oregon is a interesting player but 1st rounder I do not see that, same with Allen on Michigan State or Price on Ohio State.  Is Price better than Elflein, I do not think so and Elflein was a 3rd rounder, unless Price does some great things the rest of the year overall careers I think Elflein had a much better career.  

I don't see how Baker Mayfield is better than Riley Ferguson. Ferguson isn't a "1st round" player in my grades, but he's a quarterback so he gets overdrafted. Same thing with Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick didn't have a great game against Georgia, but it seems pretty ridiculous to use one game to define who he is as a player, especially considering the team he faced had significantly more talent on their side of the ball. Fitzpatrick isn't a runner first, although he can run. You have to be able to look beyond the garbage players surrounding him and Dan Mullen's strange commitment to running the ball unsuccessfully.

Roquan Smith gets swallowed by blocks way too easily and way too often to say that he's better than Kendall Joseph, who had a great 2016 and is having a great start to his 2017 season.

Auden Tate is a clear WR1, saying he's overrated because he might get injured is ridiculous. I'm not sure where you're seeing him having issues getting separation, he gets open pretty consistently (and with how he plays the ball, he's always open).

Jaire Alexander has been an elite corner. He plays the run better than most safeties and he's excellent in all types of coverage. If his height started with a 6 and not a 5 everyone would have him as their top cornerback.

Mata'afa is a player that makes sense for the Packers. I don't have him as a 1st round pick yet (need to see more), but he fits what the Packers want.

Street is a player that makes sense for the Lions, saying he lacks talent seems strange considering the amount of talent that he has. If he were utilized properly there wouldn't be any questions about his talent.

Mason Cole is a 1st round player at both tackle and center. Very consistent in his pass set and has the ability to make very impressive blocks in space that most other OL can't.

Orlando Brown isn't good enough to be a 1st round pick right now, he relies too much on his superior physical ability to win in college (where he won't be able to do so as much in the NFL).

McGlinchey is a borderline 1st round pick, had there been a stronger need for a tackle at the end of the 1st round he would have been in there. He is not the elite prospect that many think he is.

Connor Williams is injured and would be smart to return to school. If he declares, he will be doing so without ever showing he can consistently take a good pass set. He shouldn't be a 1st round player based on what he's shown to this point.

Arden Key has elite talent, I'm not here to play psychologist about why his effort level seems to be low. If he tries, he's elite.

Haven't watched Darius Jackson.

Tyrell Crosby is a very good player, has elite power and has come a long way in his pass set with Mario Cristobal after dealing with injuries and transitioning between RT and LT. He's had good tape ever since he was a true freshman.

Brian Allen has had good tape for a while now at Michigan State. Reliable in his pass set, great power in the run game, great leader on that OL, very aggressive player. And now he's shown he can play both guard and center. He's a very good player and deserves to go round 1.

Pat Elflein was a great prospect and should have been drafted in the 1st round. The NFL's failure to recognize his ability shouldn't hurt Billy Price, and equally great player, just because they played at the same school.  Billy Price is a 1st round player and has shown that ability at guard and now at center.

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22 hours ago, Mastercheddaar said:

For the Browns: If we are picking #1 again it is because our offense needs work. Our D has been pretty good this year and I think it'll improve. Remember we also have 3 2nd rounders. We can trade up or pick D in the 2nd round.  

That being said, I think we go Offensive at #1. Best QB or Barkley. For Houston pick, I like the call with Wide Receiver. 

That is all

Mastercheddaar

 

20 hours ago, bananabucket said:

I think that's more a function of playing the Ravens, Luck-less Colts, Bengals, and Jets tbh.  

I do think the Browns clearly need to go QB though.  Kizer is not the answer.

 

17 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

The Browns will almost certainly go QB with their 1st pick (likely the 1st overall again) after Kizer's season and subsequent benching. They won't go with back to back edge guys with the #1 overall pick, especially since Ogbah is pretty capable as a starter. Their biggest needs are QB, WR, RB, CB, and FS, in that order.

 

Noted. If Kizer keeps struggling and you guys seem to make the decision to move on, I'll consider putting Rosen in that spot.

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50 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

The Browns will almost certainly go QB with their 1st pick (likely the 1st overall again) after Kizer's season and subsequent benching. They won't go with back to back edge guys with the #1 overall pick, especially since Ogbah is pretty capable as a starter. Their biggest needs are QB, WR, RB, CB, and FS, in that order.

Do you think there is any chance that Kevin Hogan emerges? What about Kessler? 

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2 minutes ago, mike23md said:

Do you think there is any chance that Kevin Hogan emerges? What about Kessler? 

Kessler hasn't even been active this year. They're done with him unless it's as a career backup type.

The only way that they roll with Hogan is if he's CLEARLY the QBOTF going forward and goes bonkers over the next 11 weeks.

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3 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

I don't see how Baker Mayfield is better than Riley Ferguson. Ferguson isn't a "1st round" player in my grades, but he's a quarterback so he gets overdrafted. Same thing with Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick didn't have a great game against Georgia, but it seems pretty ridiculous to use one game to define who he is as a player, especially considering the team he faced had significantly more talent on their side of the ball. Fitzpatrick isn't a runner first, although he can run. You have to be able to look beyond the garbage players surrounding him and Dan Mullen's strange commitment to running the ball unsuccessfully.

Roquan Smith gets swallowed by blocks way too easily and way too often to say that he's better than Kendall Joseph, who had a great 2016 and is having a great start to his 2017 season.

Auden Tate is a clear WR1, saying he's overrated because he might get injured is ridiculous. I'm not sure where you're seeing him having issues getting separation, he gets open pretty consistently (and with how he plays the ball, he's always open).

Jaire Alexander has been an elite corner. He plays the run better than most safeties and he's excellent in all types of coverage. If his height started with a 6 and not a 5 everyone would have him as their top cornerback.

Mata'afa is a player that makes sense for the Packers. I don't have him as a 1st round pick yet (need to see more), but he fits what the Packers want.

Street is a player that makes sense for the Lions, saying he lacks talent seems strange considering the amount of talent that he has. If he were utilized properly there wouldn't be any questions about his talent.

Mason Cole is a 1st round player at both tackle and center. Very consistent in his pass set and has the ability to make very impressive blocks in space that most other OL can't.

Orlando Brown isn't good enough to be a 1st round pick right now, he relies too much on his superior physical ability to win in college (where he won't be able to do so as much in the NFL).

McGlinchey is a borderline 1st round pick, had there been a stronger need for a tackle at the end of the 1st round he would have been in there. He is not the elite prospect that many think he is.

Connor Williams is injured and would be smart to return to school. If he declares, he will be doing so without ever showing he can consistently take a good pass set. He shouldn't be a 1st round player based on what he's shown to this point.

Arden Key has elite talent, I'm not here to play psychologist about why his effort level seems to be low. If he tries, he's elite.

Haven't watched Darius Jackson.

Tyrell Crosby is a very good player, has elite power and has come a long way in his pass set with Mario Cristobal after dealing with injuries and transitioning between RT and LT. He's had good tape ever since he was a true freshman.

Brian Allen has had good tape for a while now at Michigan State. Reliable in his pass set, great power in the run game, great leader on that OL, very aggressive player. And now he's shown he can play both guard and center. He's a very good player and deserves to go round 1.

Pat Elflein was a great prospect and should have been drafted in the 1st round. The NFL's failure to recognize his ability shouldn't hurt Billy Price, and equally great player, just because they played at the same school.  Billy Price is a 1st round player and has shown that ability at guard and now at center.

Nick Fitzgerald did not only struggle against Georgia this year, he was not great at all against Auburn the week after, many games last year he struggled, even struggled against Miami OH in the bowl game.  He is a run 1st QB I say again, if he is not running the ball well he is not doing much in the game and is not nearly as dangerous. He gets a lot of yards when he is running well and defenses and geared up to stop that play first and for most.  Fitzgerald has to come back for another year I think and develop, maybe he could improve a lot as a passer like Dak did but will see.  At this point in time no way is he a 1st round prospect I feel.

 

Catching the ball for Tate over small less experienced and or qualified defensive backs in college is not getting open with separation.  I am talking about actually running away from defenders or getting a ton of yards after catch.  He does not run away or separate from college defensive backs and he rarely gets yards after the catch.  Yes he can box out defenders and get the ball and is doing that pretty well this year being forced the football.  Impressive catch radius yes that is true.  But to not consider he crazy amount of injuries an issue is just foolish.  It is a big issue because one could spend a high pick on a guy that cannot play because he is always hurt with this or that, which has happened more than once even this season.  

If you have watched Key play this year, he is not playing elite what so ever.  

So Jerome Baker does not stand out last year getting tons of tackles, playing the pass or getting INTs and returning them for touchdowns?  Kid is all over the field, is an elite level athlete, way above average cover skills for a linebacker and can play strong against the run as well.  Is a 1st round talent all the way.  Can get after the QB, play the pass and tackle well in space.

 Tarvarus McFadden is a 1st round pick all the way to me, no question with his length and ability to go after the football.  And Minkah Fitzpatrick is a sure fire 1st round talent at CB or FS, is arguably the most sound and consistent cover man in the nation and one of the smartest best anticipating defensive backs in the country.  Was a 1st round pick in terms of talent as a FR, SOPH and now as a JR.

 

Yes Orlando Brown relies on his physical abilities in college, don't most elite prospects that are physically superior to their opponent?  The kid is very athletic and very gifted for a man his size which is very rare.  Is a much improved pass blocker and can alter defensive ends rush just by getting a hit on them with his hands.  Powerful kid and huge upside at tackle I feel, I have had him as a 1st round talent for awhile, even as a RS SOPH he looked very impressive and had worlds of potential then.

 

Christian Wilkins is way better than Street on NC State.  I would take Wilkins as a 3/4 DE all day long over Street, Wilkins is bigger, more athletic and more gifted potentially because he could play DT as well.  Gets great penetration and has been a very productive tackler as well from multiple positions.  Is hell to deal with at the DE spot when out there as well, so yeah as a 3/4 DE give him him all day over Street no question about it.  Kid is a beast that plays with great passion and energy and has been doing it since he was a freshman.

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