QB for the next 10 years - Burrow or Jackson?

[tyler735]

37 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I’m sure he’d already be out of the league as @MSURacerDT55 said Lamar Jackson would be after his rookie season.

Any team besides the Ravens would’ve known exactly how trash he is within half a season and bounced him, I’m sure.

The Ravens are the only organization in football that could put together an offense for him to succeed in (ironically the team known for crappy offenses in its franchise history).

Just imagine what these Ravens coaches could do with a talent like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, I’m sure they would’ve created the greatest offense of all time... and the second team wouldn’t even be close. Considering they somehow managed to prop up a trash QB to MVP heights last season.

Burrow on the Ravens would be so good he could beat a plot armored Superman and Goku at the same time.

Exactly, poor Joe Burrow only has an offensive cast that consists of AJ Green, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Gio Bernard. Just a bunch of journeyman out there.

On the other hand, Lamar Jackson was only throwing to studs during his MVP season. His WR group was crazy good throwing to his #1 WR rookie Hollywood Brown who missed several games and finished with 500 yards receiving, then had future HOF Willie Snead as his #2 WR with a whopping 339 receiving yards. Really just a star studded WR room where I can't believe everyone was able to get fed the ball last season.

[.Buzz]

Some of these takes on Lamar are... interesting? Is that the word I'm looking for?

 

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, tyler735 said:

Exactly, poor Joe Burrow only has an offensive cast that consists of AJ Green, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Gio Bernard. Just a bunch of journeyman out there.

On the other hand, Lamar Jackson was only throwing to studs during his MVP season. His WR group was crazy good throwing to his #1 WR rookie Hollywood Brown who missed several games and finished with 500 yards receiving, then had future HOF Willie Snead as his #2 WR with a whopping 339 receiving yards. Really just a star studded WR room where I can't believe everyone was able to get fed the ball last season.

Boy you’re telling me?! Its a wonder that Burrow can even produce with those trash weapons, bottom 5 unit if you ask me! I think they should purge that offensive talent. Hopefully they ESPECIALLY don’t think to trade AJ Green or Tyler Boyd to the Ravens, would hate for such scrubs to pollute our on field product... we’d be gifting them the division at that point. It’s even disgusting to just think about.

[Bearerofnews]

Burrow is quickly becoming overrated. Ive now heard multiple networks say they would take him over every young qb outside of mahomes. What a bad take. 

[Mr Bad Example]

On 11/4/2020 at 2:37 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Has Lamar's passing declined as much as the screaming heads say it has?

I'm not seeing the really fine stats, but his comp % has dipped 6 pts (from 66 to 60), his td % has also dipped (but that was expected - 9 is unsustainable, but he's still over 6, which is more than healthy), and his int % has also popped up (1.5 was great, but 2 is hardly terrible); his rating went from 113 to a still-good 94 - QBR went from the 80s to the 60s. So yeah, he's less efficient than he was, which I'd have been shocked if he'd maintained because his td/int level was unsustainable anyway. 

Yardage-wise, he's about level with where he was last year in most categories, if once again a smidge less efficient. 

Accuracy-wise, he's a bit less accurate - his on-target passing is down from 76% to 72%....I don't have a feel for this stat so I can't say much about either number brief research indicates that Mahomes has been around 77%; it seems like the high 70s is where most "good" QBs camp out - players like Stafford, Ryan, and Goff are all in that 76% range; Jackson has 20% "bad" throws (all #s per PFR), which is higher than most decent QBs I looked at, but usually they're in the 17-20% range, so still not awful. Jackson has also had his drop rate go up this season by 2% which doesn't help him either. 

 

Based on my cursory research, last season he was absolutely killing it; this season, less so but hardly embarrassing. By the numbers, he appears to be in the "average" range as a passer, maybe slightly above average when you figure other passers can make up for shaky rate stats with bulk stats. He also is a bit behind the curve running the ball but still on pace for over 900 yds. 

 

Looking at the numbers, it looks like he's facing more pressure when passing and also the running yards are tougher, so defense have, if not figured him out, at least decided that they're going to focus on stopping him and possibly have an attitude of "make the other players beat us." Since the Ravens are 5-2, I don't know that that's working out for them so much. 

 

Anyway, tldr people SHOULD have expected some regression from Jackson, and while it's a little more so than I'd have expected - he was PHENOMENAL in 2019, I expected him to go to "still excellent" and he went more towards "very good, maybe skewing towards average" - it's still well within the bounds of him being a legit NFL QB even absent what he brings to the table running the ball. 

[Mr Bad Example]

And I think it's fair to point out that Jackson hasn't had a "whoa!" game this season. I'm sure the narrative as Bal runs into the teeth of their schedule - just lost to Pitt, face Indy, TN, and Pitt again over the next 4 games - there will be plenty of "what's wrong with Lamar?" takes, only for there to be a trumpeting of "HE'S BACK BABY!" once the soft back end starts - Dal @ Cle, Jax, NYG, Cin. And I say this knowing Cle and Cin have been competitive, but Bal has already had 20+ pt wins vs each of them. 

[SBLIII]

14 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Burrow is quickly becoming overrated. Ive now heard multiple networks say they would take him over every young qb outside of mahomes. What a bad take. 

I can't say I would take him over everyone, but I wouldn't have a problem with that. The thing with Burrow is he really doesn't miss many throws and he is a rookie in the covid season who has no OL. 

QBs usually blow up in their 2nd season, so don't be surprised if Burrow suddenly has 40 TDs next year.

[Bearerofnews]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

I can't say I would take him over everyone, but I wouldn't have a problem with that. The thing with Burrow is he really doesn't miss many throws and he is a rookie in the covid season who has no OL. 

QBs usually blow up in their 2nd season, so don't be surprised if Burrow suddenly has 40 TDs next year.

But he is clearly being outplayed by a qb taken 5 spots after him.

Herbert had no preseason, didn't take snaps with starters all off season, has been hurried more than any qb despite playing 6 games and has the highest pressure rate in the NFL. While having a higher comp% than burrow (slightly) and a 8.0 ypa, vs Joe's below avg 6.9..

Just don't see how Joe is garnering love when being outplayed by a qb in same draft class. Herbert was getting his love, dont get me wrong. But some of the new takes after a game vs a bad titans defense is funny. 

 

[Mr Bad Example]

15 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

But he is clearly being outplayed by a qb taken 5 spots after him.

Herbert had no preseason, didn't take snaps with starters all off season, has been hurried more than any qb despite playing 6 games and has the highest pressure rate in the NFL. While having a higher comp% than burrow (slightly) and a 8.0 ypa, vs Joe's below avg 6.9..

Just don't see how Joe is garnering love when being outplayed by a qb in same draft class. Herbert was getting his love, dont get me wrong. But some of the new takes after a game vs a bad titans defense is funny. 

 

 

I know this is crazy, but isn't possible they both are having good rookie seasons and look promising? 

[Bearerofnews]

4 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

 

I know this is crazy, but isn't possible they both are having good rookie seasons and look promising? 

Unacceptable. If there isnt a > or a < then there is a conspiracy abroad.

[Mr Bad Example]

39 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Unacceptable. If there isnt a > or a < then there is a conspiracy abroad.

"If one is given 2 things, one must be The Best and the other must be The Worst. So it has always been on the internet, so it shall always be." 

[diamondbull424]

7 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

I'm not seeing the really fine stats, but his comp % has dipped 6 pts (from 66 to 60), his td % has also dipped (but that was expected - 9 is unsustainable, but he's still over 6, which is more than healthy), and his int % has also popped up (1.5 was great, but 2 is hardly terrible); his rating went from 113 to a still-good 94 - QBR went from the 80s to the 60s. So yeah, he's less efficient than he was, which I'd have been shocked if he'd maintained because his td/int level was unsustainable anyway. 

Yardage-wise, he's about level with where he was last year in most categories, if once again a smidge less efficient. 

Accuracy-wise, he's a bit less accurate - his on-target passing is down from 76% to 72%....I don't have a feel for this stat so I can't say much about either number brief research indicates that Mahomes has been around 77%; it seems like the high 70s is where most "good" QBs camp out - players like Stafford, Ryan, and Goff are all in that 76% range; Jackson has 20% "bad" throws (all #s per PFR), which is higher than most decent QBs I looked at, but usually they're in the 17-20% range, so still not awful. Jackson has also had his drop rate go up this season by 2% which doesn't help him either. 

 

Based on my cursory research, last season he was absolutely killing it; this season, less so but hardly embarrassing. By the numbers, he appears to be in the "average" range as a passer, maybe slightly above average when you figure other passers can make up for shaky rate stats with bulk stats. He also is a bit behind the curve running the ball but still on pace for over 900 yds. 

 

Looking at the numbers, it looks like he's facing more pressure when passing and also the running yards are tougher, so defense have, if not figured him out, at least decided that they're going to focus on stopping him and possibly have an attitude of "make the other players beat us." Since the Ravens are 5-2, I don't know that that's working out for them so much. 

 

Anyway, tldr people SHOULD have expected some regression from Jackson, and while it's a little more so than I'd have expected - he was PHENOMENAL in 2019, I expected him to go to "still excellent" and he went more towards "very good, maybe skewing towards average" - it's still well within the bounds of him being a legit NFL QB even absent what he brings to the table running the ball. 

Pretty much. The RG spot was filled by rookie Tyre Philips (who was just injured against the Steelers.) He’s been terrible with pressure recognition and just mediocre in 1v1s. To start the season Orlando Brown Jr was also pretty terrible. Was getting beat like a drum for like the first 5 or so weeks. He’s since regained form finally and is back to his PB level. I suppose a guy like him needs the preseason especially to get used to moving all 6’8” 350 lbs (or whatever they list him at) kind of weight around.

LG spot is manned by JAG Bradley Bozeman, granted he’s been above average this season. Ronnie Stanley is always playing through something and was more PB level than AP level, not that I’m complaining... but now he’s on IR. Skura at C is mediocre at best.

The problem with it though is the consistency from snap to snap. They remind me of that Anchorman quote “50% of the time, it works EVERY time.” Some plays they implode within a second, while others they can give 4-5 seconds. There isn’t much in between. It makes them statistically look better than what they are. I’d rather have an above average OL across the board than this unit that’s elite on some plays and then terrible on others. You can’t expect how much time they’re going to buy on play to play.

Though against the Steelers they looked more consistent once Philips went down. Forcing Patrick Mekari into the lineup and Fluker in at RT, with Brown Jr to LT. The OL looked far better 1v1 and picking up stunts at that point IMO. We’ll see if it was just a fluke or if they continue to look good against the Colts defense. If their flaws are corrected, I would expect some improvement from Lamar. He particularly struggles with interior pressures where he can’t step into the pocket. So if that situation normalizes some, I expect his season to shape up better than its gone to this point.

[Hunter2_1]

I can't believe people can look at the product AJ Green is putting out there and still use him as an argument as to why JB is throwing to good weapons. Like, have you been watching? It's not 2012. 

[diamondbull424]

1 minute ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I can't believe people can look at the product AJ Green is putting out there and still use him as an argument as to why JB is throwing to good weapons. Like, have you been watching? It's not 2012. 

AJ Green may not be elite any longer, but if he were than the Bengals would have the second best WR core in the NFL, only behind the ridiculous amount of weapons in Tampa Bay. 

Green is still a WR that can beat most #3 corners in the league.

With Boyd and Higgins you’ve got two legit WRs. Add in Auden Tate as someone with ability. Someone is going to have a mismatch on every play. Especially when you consider Sample is a quality TE as well. Then you’ve got a great receiving RB like Mixon.

Like they have a top 5 receiving core in the league. Only receiving cores I’m taking over theirs are the Bucs, Seahawks, Saints, and Chiefs. Unless I’m gravely forgetting about some other team. But unless people are gravely underrating Tyler Boyd as a WR that would be the only explanation for how someone might underrate the Bengals weapons.

[wackywabbit]

This poll is 34-7 Burrow. 

The same question with 7 games less data: