49ers COVID Thread - NINE PLAYERS ON COVID LIST

[N4L]

11/4/2020:

Bourne out with covid - not good considering we are supposed to play tomorrow

Bad player to miss this week considering Alexander is a very good corner and he will give aiyuk problems 

EDIT: WTF - trent williams aiyuk out with close contact to bourne

 

EDIT: 11/23 - NINE players on the covid list now

Arik Armstead

Javon Kinlaw

Hroniss Grasu

Joe Walker

Trent Williams 

Aiyuk

Daniel Helm

DJ Jones

Jordan Willis

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by N4L

[AustrianNiner]

Edited November 4, 2020 by AustrianNiner

[J-ALL-DAY]

Um, Kevin White time? Though James returned to practice yesterday so hopefully can play tomorrow. 

[N4L]

Bourne is back on the covid list. 

He was taken off, then added back. Does anyone know if we had any team activities this weekend?

[N4L]

Bourne is off the covid list, but we have 9 guys on it

49IRs with Nine(r) guys with covid

[N4L]

Do we even have enough guys to field a whole DL?

No AA, Kinlaw, DJJ, Willis

 

Maybe this is just our way of getting a game cancelled so that we can snag that 8th playoff spot LOL

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, N4L said:

Do we even have enough guys to field a whole DL?

No AA, Kinlaw, DJJ, Willis

 

Maybe this is just our way of getting a game cancelled so that we can snag that 8th playoff spot LOL

It's only an issue if they actually tested positive (mandatory quarantine). Being on the list doesn't mean you tested positive, could just be a close contact situation. Just about the entire raiders defense was on the list last week. They legitimately couldn't practice at all on the defensive side of the ball. If you pass all the tests, then you're good to go for sunday. As long as you aren't put on after Wednesday, I believe, you have a chance at playing. 

[N4L]

18 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's only an issue if they actually tested positive (mandatory quarantine). Being on the list doesn't mean you tested positive, could just be a close contact situation. Just about the entire raiders defense was on the list last week. They legitimately couldn't practice at all on the defensive side of the ball. If you pass all the tests, then you're good to go for sunday. As long as you aren't put on after Wednesday, I believe, you have a chance at playing. 

This is true, but if I had to guess, I would say that most/all of these guys have tested positive. 

For one thing, we all saw the headline of "NFL investigating Bourne for not adhering to covid protocols" then "Bourne did not violate protocols" - So I assume from that standpoint that we have been wearing masks etc within the building. this would lead to a lower % chance of being added to the list for being a close contact

Then add in the fact that it wasnt "9 guys added to covid list" all at once, but rather 2-3 at a time, means that there are at least SOME positive tests here. If it was just one guy testing positive then 8 close contacts, we would have heard about it straight away. So the slow trickle of guys being added is very bad 

After the first guy tested positive, the team would shut down facilities etc etc, so the fact that we are adding guys so far after that would have happened, when these guys really shouldn't be around each other, means there are positive tests

 

I just looked at our roster, we have four active DLman, and two of them are dion jordan and kentavious street 

we are so ****ed lol The only time that Dion Jordan or Justin Skule will look decent is during warm ups when they are facing each other LOL

[Forge]

Just now, N4L said:

This is true, but if I had to guess, I would say that most/all of these guys have tested positive. 

For one thing, we all saw the headline of "NFL investigating Bourne for not adhering to covid protocols" then "Bourne did not violate protocols" - So I assume from that standpoint that we have been wearing masks etc within the building. this would lead to a lower % chance of being added to the list for being a close contact

Then add in the fact that it wasnt "9 guys added to covid list" all at once, but rather 2-3 at a time, means that there are at least SOME positive tests here. If it was just one guy testing positive then 8 close contacts, we would have heard about it straight away. So the slow trickle of guys being added is very bad 

After the first guy tested positive, the team would shut down facilities etc etc, so the fact that we are adding guys so far after that would have happened, when these guys really shouldn't be around each other, means there are positive tests

 

I just looked at our roster, we have four active DLman, and two of them are dion jordan and kentavious street 

we are so ****ed lol The only time that Dion Jordan or Justin Skule will look decent is during warm ups when they are facing each other LOL

You're added to the list for close contact regardless of the masks, I'm pretty sure. If you're in close contact, you're on. 

[N4L]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

You're added to the list for close contact regardless of the masks, I'm pretty sure. If you're in close contact, you're on. 

Right, but in order to be a close contact, you need to actually be in contact with someone who tested positive lol so there are positives out of the 9 guys on the list undoubtedly 

Armstead has been on the list for 7 days. Safe to say he actually tested positive I think

 

Here is the timeline:

Armstead on 11/16

Kinlaw on 11/18

Grassu, Joe Walker on 11/19

Aiyuk, Trent, Daniel Helm on 11/20

DJJ and Willis on 11/23

 

From this timeline, AA is a real positive otherwise he would be off the list by now. Kinlaw could be a close contact but you would have thought they would have added him on 11/17 if that was the case. As in, they did the tracing for AA once his test came back positive, so the delay to me says, hes a real positive as well

Look at what happened before GB game - Bourne positive test came back, and HOURS later Trent and Aiyuk were out. There was no delay in putting them on the list if memory serves 

I would suspect that one of DJJ and Willis is positive and the other could be in close contact with them. I would kind of make the assumption that each time a new wave of players went on the list, that there was at least one positive test in the group. So in my moderately educated guess, we have at least 5 positives, (unless we had some coaches test positive that we dont know about, that would change the equation) 

 

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, N4L said:

Right, but in order to be a close contact, you need to actually be in contact with someone who tested positive lol so there are positives out of the 9 guys on the list undoubtedly 

Armstead has been on the list for 7 days. Safe to say he actually tested positive I think

 

Here is the timeline:

Armstead on 11/16

Kinlaw on 11/18

Grassu, Joe Walker on 11/19

Aiyuk, Trent, Daniel Helm on 11/20

DJJ and Willis on 11/23

 

From this timeline, AA is a real positive otherwise he would be off the list by now. Kinlaw could be a close contact but you would have thought they would have added him on 11/17 if that was the case. As in, they did the tracing for AA once his test came back positive, so the delay to me says, hes a real positive as well

Look at what happened before GB game - Bourne positive test came back, and HOURS later Trent and Aiyuk were out. There was no delay in putting them on the list if memory serves 

I would suspect that one of DJJ and Willis is positive and the other could be in close contact with them. I would kind of make the assumption that each time a new wave of players went on the list, that there was at least one positive test in the group. So in my moderately educated guess, we have at least 5 positives, (unless we had some coaches test positive that we dont know about, that would change the equation) 

 

Yes, but close contact doesn't mean that they have it, nor does being on the list. 

Until I hear that they have actually tested positive, I'm not going to assume it. We usually hear about the results, so I imagine if they have Covid, we will actually get a positive confirmation at some point,  just like we did with Dobbins and the Ravens players. Right now they are only on the list, and timing or not, until I hear that they are actually testing positive i won't assume it. As far as I Know, we haven't re-shut down facilities either at this point. 

If they are covid positive, we'll hear about it at some point because in order to get off it, the have to test negative for like 5 straight days or whatever. We also don't know that the close contacts are from the same contact, which could explain the variances in time. 

[N4L]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yes, but close contact doesn't mean that they have it, nor does being on the list. 

I get that. I am trying to determine the likelihood of players being positive based on the available information. Someone in the building tested positive, otherwise we wouldnt have 9 friggen guys on the list

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Until I hear that they have actually tested positive, I'm not going to assume it

Thats fair, but I think we have enough data to make a moderately educated guess based on what I know of the NFL protocols (far more than I ever hoped to tbh)

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

We usually hear about the results, so I imagine if they have Covid, we will actually get a positive confirmation at some point,  just like we did with Dobbins and the Ravens players

Technically it is against the law to release these results like Dobbins and Ingram's results were. Someone in the building or in the NFL leaked it. I know we were on a bye but we havent heard anything about the guys who were on it last week, look at the dates, AA should be off the list by now if he wasnt positive. Kinlaw could come off tomorrow once he gets today's results back.

Although, I guess that assumes they were getting tested everyday during their bye, which I believe is the case. 

8 minutes ago, Forge said:

Right now they are only on the list, and timing or not, until I hear that they are actually testing positive i won't assume it.

Thats fair. I am not making any definitive statements, just doing some deductive reasoning to make an educated guess. I hope that we actually get some clarity in the coming days so that I can see how close I was. lol 

10 minutes ago, Forge said:

As far as I Know, we haven't re-shut down facilities either at this point. 

This would be negligence on our part given how many guys are on the list. I believe all 32 teams are in the covid protocols right now, and to be honest, the bye weeks seem to always be followed by positive tests as players probably do things they shouldnt be doing. 

12 minutes ago, Forge said:

We also don't know that the close contacts are from the same contact, which could explain the variances in time. 

Would it though? The contact tracing should be instantaneous basically. They wear the sensors and so they can literally type their name into a computer to see who was close to whom. Then they just get interviewed about who else they came in contact with outside of the facility. That shouldnt take more than a few hours. 

You wouldnt see a guy like DJJ get added to the list today after being in contact with Kinlaw last week. It shouldnt happen. Each round of guys getting added to the list is a new positive test I think. You also wouldnt see DJJ get added today after being a close contact with trent williams last week, unless for some reason the team decided to not do anything over the weekend? That wouldnt make sense though because you would want guys on the list in that scenario so they can come off the list faster to come practice and work out. There is no incentive to delay putting DJJ on the list if he came into contact with williams last week. I just have to believe we have more people working on this that there wouldnt be some big delay. 

Also, they day the positive test result comes back is actually the day after the guy tests positive because the lab takes 24 hours to turn it around. So on Friday for example, trent williams didnt have contact with anyone, because friday morning he wouldnt be allowed in the building other than to test again. So thursdays contacts should get added Friday. Thats why I am saying that I would expect one actual real positive on each new round of guys getting added to the list. Could also be a coach or staff member, and I guess someone could self report their GF being sick or something, and actually the NFL can tell based on the strain of covid whether or not its one outbreak or multiple outbreaks from different sources so I expect that some of these guys are just close contact, but I would be shocked if we had less than 4/5 positive tests for this reason.

Its not a bunch of guys being added at once, its a slow burn, which to me says new positive tests in the building each time people got added. Without knowing how many staff/coaches have tested positive, it makes it harder to predict but the contact tracing should happen fast enough that there should not be any delay in adding close contacts to the list after a positive. None of these guys that got added today had any contact with AA outside of 7-8 days ago, so its not like he could be the reason they are on the list. Does that make sense or am I just a lunatic? lol

 

[N4L]

Live look at @N4L deciphering 49IRs covid results

 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, N4L said:

Would it though? The contact tracing should be instantaneous basically. They wear the sensors and so they can literally type their name into a computer to see who was close to whom. Then they just get interviewed about who else they came in contact with outside of the facility. That shouldnt take more than a few hours. 

 

Absolutely. AA's close contact point could be completely different than Helm's, who could then be the close contact Aiyuk / Trent Taylor. 

DJ Jones getting added a week after AA and Kinlaw would actually support the idea that if he's a close contact, his close contact point is someone completely different than initial run. 

[N4L]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Absolutely. AA's close contact point could be completely different than Helm's, who could then be the close contact Aiyuk / Trent Taylor. 

DJ Jones getting added a week after AA and Kinlaw would actually support the idea that if he's a close contact, his close contact point is someone completely different than initial run. 

Right, so we have mystery person A test positive, AA is a close contact, then for some reason it takes them 2 days to contact trace to kinlaw as well? That doesnt seem right to me. Should happen same day. 

So if kinlaw didnt test positive, then someone else must have tested positive on Tuesday (with results Wednesday, the day kinlaw was added) and also not mystery person A, otherwise kinlaw would have been added same time as AA, otherwise Kinlaw wouldnt have been in contact with anyone who tested positive

That is my overall point, there are positive tests occurring. Not only are there positive tests, but there are multiple positive tests on different days. 

Unless my premise is waaay off and for some reason we are super slow to contact trace. Which see unlikely and a friggen joke if true. Millions and millions of dollars at stake but we dont contact trace with any efficiency? I dont buy it.