2021 Draft Comparisons

[THE DUKE]

On 2/7/2021 at 11:48 PM, jrry32 said:

Does Rhamondre Stevenson remind anybody else of Le'Veon Bell? Massive HB with more of a patient, finesse running style. Really good in the passing game (both as a blocker and receiver).

I can see that with balance and vision, but Bell had a lot more burst coming out of MSU than Stevenson has.

[jrry32]

Jaret Patterson -> Devonta Freeman

[Rich7sena]

Here are some that have occurred to me over the past couple weeks:

Najee Harris -> Melvin Gordon

Travis Etienne -> Ahmad Bradshaw

Javante Williams -> Nick Chubb

J'Marr Chase -> Davante Adams

DeVonta Smith -> Odell Beckham

Jaylen Waddle -> John Brown

Terrace Marshall -> Josh Gordon

Zach Wilson -> Russell Wilson

Mac Jones -> Kirk Cousins

Kellen Mond -> Marcus Mariota

Kwity Paye -> Bradley Chubb

[SaveOurSonics]

On 2/10/2021 at 7:24 PM, jrry32 said:

Jaret Patterson -> Devonta Freeman

This feels awfully bullish. I think the nicest comp I can give to Patterson is Myles Gaskin. He shouldn't hear his name called before Round 6. 

[jrry32]

42 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

This feels awfully bullish. I think the nicest comp I can give to Patterson is Myles Gaskin. He shouldn't hear his name called before Round 6. 

Nope, it's appropriately bullish.

[LinebackerGod]

4 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Jaylen Waddle -> John Brown

Terrace Marshall -> Josh Gordon

I hate these comps, honestly.

 

Jaylen Waddle is a pretty polished receiver. John Brown is just a deep threat. Waddle is also significantly better at going up and getting the football in jump ball situations.

 

Terrace Marshall is much stiffer than Josh Gordon. Josh is 5x the athlete. Maybe Josh Gordon at 28-30 years old? But prime Josh Gordon was arguably the best WR in the NFL.

[Rich7sena]

1 hour ago, LinebackerGod said:

I hate these comps, honestly.

 

Jaylen Waddle is a pretty polished receiver. John Brown is just a deep threat. Waddle is also significantly better at going up and getting the football in jump ball situations.

 

Terrace Marshall is much stiffer than Josh Gordon. Josh is 5x the athlete. Maybe Josh Gordon at 28-30 years old? But prime Josh Gordon was arguably the best WR in the NFL.

John Brown is more than just a deep threat--he is a very polished route runner.

My comps have more to do with the type of player rather than a direct comparison. I see Marshall as a big/tall/fast type in the same class as Josh Gordon/Kenny Golladay/DK Metcalf/Chase Claypool/Demaryius Thomas.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Rich7sena

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Nope, it's appropriately bullish.

We will have to agree to strongly disagree on this one. I realize it's just a comp, but I'm confident Patterson won't be selected in the first 150 picks like Freeman was, he'll never be entrusted as a team's bell-cow, and he doesn't have the size that Freeman had coming out (5'8 206 for Freeman; 5'6" 195 for Patterson) or the resume of doing it against good defenses. 

Tearing up MAC defenses doesn't impress me much. Kevin Marks was similarly productive in that system/conference. 

I think Hawkins is a closer comp to Freeman than Patterson is. Mind you, Gaskin isn't some insulting comp. He's proven to be an effective player in the NFL, albeit one with a low ceiling and part-time role.  

[jrry32]

58 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

We will have to agree to strongly disagree on this one. I realize it's just a comp, but I'm confident Patterson won't be selected in the first 150 picks like Freeman was, he'll never be entrusted as a team's bell-cow, and he doesn't have the size that Freeman had coming out (5'8 206 for Freeman; 5'6" 195 for Patterson) or the resume of doing it against good defenses. 

I could not care less when he gets drafted. That's not a consideration for me. You're challenging his size, but 5'6" 195 is a similar body type to 5'8" 205. And Patterson playing in the MAC has no relevance to a player comparison. Both guys are/were short, thickly built backs who possess quick feet, a low center of gravity, great contact balance, good acceleration, impressive vision, and an aggressive-but-evasive running style. If there's one area where I'm having to really speculate, it's Patterson's ability as a pass catcher. Freeman was much more proven in that regard.

Quote

Tearing up MAC defenses doesn't impress me much. Kevin Marks was similarly productive in that system/conference. 

Good to know. I guess guys who played in the weaker conferences or lower divisions can't be impressive. 😉

If by "similarly productive," you mean averaged a yard less per carry and had significantly less rushing yardage and rushing TD totals, you're correct.

Quote

I think Hawkins is a closer comp to Freeman than Patterson is. Mind you, Gaskin isn't some insulting comp. He's proven to be an effective player in the NFL, albeit one with a low ceiling and part-time role.  

Hawkins has a completely different style. He's an outside-zone speed HB who doesn't have much oomph behind his pads. I'm not saying Gaskin is an insulting comparison, but I am saying that I don't see him as a similar back. My recollection of Gaskin was that he was more of a finesse runner with good vision and an all-around game. Patterson isn't a finesse guy. Lance Zierlein compared him to Jacquizz Rodgers. I don't think that's a bad comparison. I think his ceiling is a bit higher, but I could certainly see him having a career like Quizz.

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

John Brown is more than just a deep threat--he is a very polished route runner.

My comps have more to do with the type of player rather than a direct comparison. I see Marshall as a big/tall/fast type in the same class as Josh Gordon/Kenny Golladay/DK Metcalf/Chase Claypool/Demaryius Thomas.

He's much thinner than those guys. And those guys are pretty distinct from each other too. My big issue with Terrace is his tendency to coast. 

[SaveOurSonics]

23 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

short, thickly built backs who possess quick feet, a low center of gravity, great contact balance, good acceleration, impressive vision, and an aggressive-but-evasive running style

So....Myles Gaskin essentially? I don't think Patterson runs with quite the aggressiveness between the tackles that Devonta did, and that's partially where comparing the level of competition comes into play. Bouncing off guys in the MAC does not = bouncing off guys in the ACC. Gaskin doesn't have that tenacity either, but he's not a pure finesse guy. Gaskin has similarly deceptive strength and contact balance to Patterson, while sporting excellent vision. 

I don't mind a Quizz Rodgers comp, but I do feel a Devonta comp is bullish. And I do consider a variety of variables with my comps because it does give a clearer picture of where I expect a prospect to be drafted vs their career outlook (though admittedly that's not always the case). I recall us having a similar conversation regarding Tyler Johnson last year when I was saying he wouldn't be selected before the 5th round and you called him a 3rd round talent (iirc). Clearly we just project Patterson differently. It sounds like you think Patterson has a realistic opportunity to carve out a bell-cow role in the NFL, whereas I think his ceiling is a replacement-level committee back. 

 

Out of curiosity, where do you see Patterson getting drafted? 

[jrry32]

7 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

So....Myles Gaskin essentially?

No. Not at all, just like I told you. So I'm not sure why you'd ask a question that I just answered.

Quote

I recall us having a similar conversation regarding Tyler Johnson last year when I was saying he wouldn't be selected before the 5th round and you called him a 3rd round talent (iirc).

I almost certainly told you then what I am telling you now: I don't care where they get drafted. I evaluate players, not draft stock.

Quote

Out of curiosity, where do you see Patterson getting drafted? 

I don't care where he gets drafted. But if I ventured a guess, I'd say 5th round.

[SaveOurSonics]

26 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I almost certainly told you then what I am telling you now: I don't care where they get drafted. I evaluate players, not draft stock.

Correct. We do differ in our objectives when it comes to doing this. I enjoy projecting where a player will actually be selected (relative to where I think they should be selected) to test how aligned I am with actual league decision makers. Because I think that's a large part of the equation for these FOs. It's not simply a matter of where you value a player, it's where you think the rest of the league values that player to know the optimal spot to select him. The Seahawks valued Russell Wilson as a late 1st rounder, but had the wherewithal to know they could wait until the 3rd round to get their guy. That's awesome that you had Tyler Johnson as a 3rd rounder. If you were drafting, you would've been 2 rounds too early relative to the rest of the league. That's a part of this I enjoy and that's okay if you don't.  

 

26 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

No. Not at all, just like I told you. So I'm not sure why you'd ask a question that I just answered.

No worries, more of a rhetorical question based off of your feedback 😉  Sounded as if you weren't too familiar with Gaskin's game.

 

Moral: I think you're overrating Patterson's power and I don't think he has a realistic opportunity to ever be as good as Freeman was. It's not a terrible comp by any means, but I wanted to point out that I felt it was bullish relative to what I project his ceiling to be. Gaskin or Rodgers is more in line with his ceiling as a pro.  

Edited March 25, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Correct. We do differ in our objectives when it comes to doing this. I enjoy projecting where a player will actually be selected (relative to where I think they should be selected) to test how aligned I am with actual league decision makers. Because I think that's a large part of the equation for these FOs. It's not simply a matter of where you value a player, it's where you think the rest of the league values that player to know the optimal spot to select him. The Seahawks valued Russell Wilson as a late 1st rounder, but had the wherewithal to know they could wait until the 3rd round to get their guy. That's awesome that you had Tyler Johnson as a 3rd rounder. If you were drafting, you would've been 2 rounds too early relative to the rest of the league. That's a part of this I enjoy and that's okay if you don't.  

If the Seahawks valued Wilson as a late first rounder and waited until the third to take him, as smart as they were with the evaluation, they were also stupid and lucky. I remember the Rams trying to outsmart the rest of the NFL that year. They were picking at #45. Instead of drafting the guy they wanted, they traded down five spots. The Seahawks took the guy they wanted at pick #47, a linebacker named Bobby Wagner. The Rams settled for Isaiah Pead. How stupid would the Seahawks have looked if another team took Russell Wilson in the 2nd or 3rd rounds before he got to their pick? In hindsight, very stupid. My outlook is that you figure out which guys you want to have on your squad, and then you draft in a manner to get as many of them as possible.

I'm less worried about the guys I don't like who turn into good players than the guys I do like who don't. Because if I am hitting on a lot of my picks, I'm going to be successful. For example, in my past Expansion Sim, I drafted George Kittle in the fourth round. I could have taken him a round later. Do you think that mattered to me at all once Kittle started playing on Sundays? I want my guys. It's that simple.

Quote

No worries, more of a rhetorical question based off of your feedback 😉  Sounded as if you weren't too familiar with Gaskin's game.

Well, I am. Dude doesn't have the power and tackle-breaking ability that Patterson does.

[SaveOurSonics]

6 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, I am. Dude doesn't have the power and tackle-breaking ability that Patterson does.

Perhaps that's true. 

Gaskin
24 BP reps
35.5" Vert 
118" Broad 

Patterson
19 BP reps
30" Vert
117" Broad

 

...but perhaps that's not true. These numbers can't replace what you see on tape, but they sure are indicative of strength and lower body power. We will come to find out. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by SaveOurSonics