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tannenballs

2021 NFL Head Coaching Candidates

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Tier 1

1. Arthur Smith TEN OC

2. Brian Daboll BUF OC

3. Gary Kubiak MIN OC

4. Eric Bieniemy KC OC

5. Joe Brady CAR OC

6. Kevin O'Connell LAR OC

7. Brandon Staley LAR DC

8. Raheem Morris ATL IHC

9. Todd Bowles TB DC 

10. Tony Elliott Clemson OC

11. Mike Kafka KC QB

12. Shane Waldron LAR QB

13. Luke Fickell Cincinnati HC

 

Tier 2

14. Matt Campbell Iowa State HC

15. Dave Toub KC STC

16. Dennis Allen NO DC

17. Dan Campbell NO AHC/TE

18. Greg Roman BAL OC

 

Tier 3

19. Josh McDaniels NE OC

20. Jim Harbaugh Michigan HC

21. Robert Saleh SF DC

22. Don Martindale BAL DC

23. Matt Eberflus IND DC

24. Anthony Weaver HOU DC

25. Pete Carmichael NO OC

Edited by tannenballs

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*Predictions*

Currently open
HOU- Eric Bieniemy, KC OC
ATL- Todd Bowles, TB DC

Likely open
NYJ- Brian Daboll, BUF OC
JAX- Arthur Smith, TEN OC
DET- Matt Campbell, Iowa State HC

50/50 likelihood of opening
CIN- Joe Brady, CAR OC
DEN- Dennis Allen, NO DC 
LAC- Greg Roman, BAL OC
PHI- Josh McDaniels, NE OC
CHI- Don Martindale, BAL DC
MIN- Robert Saleh, SF DC 

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Where do you think Urban Meyer will end up? Clearly somewhere, either college or pro. He's always been excellent as an analyst but this year it's an entirely different level, as this article points out. 

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2020/11/17/despite-tom-hermans-self-confidence-urban-meyers-allure-may-prove-too-powerful-for-texas-to-ignore/

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11 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Where do you think Urban Meyer will end up? Clearly somewhere, either college or pro. He's always been excellent as an analyst but this year it's an entirely different level, as this article points out. 

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2020/11/17/despite-tom-hermans-self-confidence-urban-meyers-allure-may-prove-too-powerful-for-texas-to-ignore/

Yeah I have Urban in the long shot category for the NFL with the usuals such as Saban, Dabo, Lincoln Riley and David Shaw.

I think Urban is waiting for a blue blood such as Texas, USC or Notre Dame. 

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I'd say guys like Saleh and Eberflus are way more likely to get a HC gig than someone like Greg Roman.

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3 hours ago, tannenballs said:

*Predictions*

Currently open
HOU- Eric Bieniemy, KC OC
ATL- Todd Bowles, TB DC

Likely open
NYJ- Brian Daboll, BUF OC
JAX- Arthur Smith, TEN OC
DET- Matt Campbell, Iowa State HC

50/50 likelihood of opening
CIN- Joe Brady, CAR OC
DEN- Dennis Allen, NO DC 
LAC- Greg Roman, BAL OC
PHI- Josh McDaniels, NE OC
CHI- Don Martindale, BAL DC
MIN- Robert Saleh, SF DC 

Can I be 100% up front with you? Atlanta probably won't go with Todd Bowles after he snubbed them in 2014 for even an interview. Bienemy will be their top target, but I think they'd try to either keep Raheem Morris if they can't get Bienemy and bring in an OC like Kubiak if Zimmer and his staff get fired, OR they would go with a complete culture change with someone like Josh McDaniels.

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1 hour ago, DawgX said:

I'd say guys like Saleh and Eberflus are way more likely to get a HC gig than someone like Greg Roman.

That's fair. As you can tell by how I have them ranked, I'm not a fan of either. 

That Seattle Cover 3 system really only works if you have 4 Pro Bowl DL, a Pro Bowl LB and a Pro Bowl CB. And at least 2 starter caliber rotation players on DL.

I don't like Eberflus system either. A bunch of longe rangy athletes in the front 7 but they lack size and ability to defeat blocks at the point of attack. 

 

I think they both interview and may both even get jobs. I just think they get fired within 3 years. Just my $0.02

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13 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

I think Mike McDaniel deserves a mention as the run game coordinator for the Niners.

Think there's a good chance he'd go with Saleh and OC.

13 minutes ago, tannenballs said:

That's fair. As you can tell by how I have them ranked, I'm not a fan of either. 

That Seattle Cover 3 system really only works if you have 4 Pro Bowl DL, a Pro Bowl LB and a Pro Bowl CB. And at least 2 starter caliber rotation players on DL.

I don't like Eberflus system either. A bunch of longe rangy athletes in the front 7 but they lack size and ability to defeat blocks at the point of attack. 

 

I think they both interview and may both even get jobs. I just think they get fired within 3 years. Just my $0.02

I mean, Saleh doesn't run that traditional Seattle D. He's adapted, Sherman has went into deep detail about it.

Another big difference I find is most guys who came from that tree worked under Carroll and got HC gigs. Saleh had to install it and basically runs that entire defense by himself. Gus, Quinn, etc. all never really did that, nor adapted/altered the defense as time went on and offenses caught up.

That defense has lost so many key cogs and still continues playing pretty damn well.

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Being a good HC has a lot more to do with it than just being able to call a good side of the ball as well. You have to be able to run the whole ship/be a good leader unless you're just being brought in to be a glorified OC/QB whisperer like Zac Taylor, Kliff, LaFleur, etc. were hired to be.

Personally, as long as he has a guy like McDaniel/bright OC to come with him, he's probably a top 3ish candidate for me.

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Thought this was interesting: If someone hires Bieniemy the Chiefs get an extra 3rd round pick in each of the next two drafts. New iteration of the rooney rule I guess.

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50 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Think there's a good chance he'd go with Saleh and OC.

I mean, Saleh doesn't run that traditional Seattle D. He's adapted, Sherman has went into deep detail about it.

Another big difference I find is most guys who came from that tree worked under Carroll and got HC gigs. Saleh had to install it and basically runs that entire defense by himself. Gus, Quinn, etc. all never really did that, nor adapted/altered the defense as time went on and offenses caught up.

That defense has lost so many key cogs and still continues playing pretty damn well.

There's a reason why it didn't work in Atlanta. Quinn never actually knew how to run that defense. He was a defensive line coach with terrible game management. Morris is showing just how much better the defensive talent was than the scheme by putting guys in spots to win. 

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18 minutes ago, Kirill said:

Thought this was interesting: If someone hires Bieniemy the Chiefs get an extra 3rd round pick in each of the next two drafts. New iteration of the rooney rule I guess.

Wait, is that true? Would that happen for Atlanta if someone had hired Morris away?

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52 minutes ago, scar988 said:

There's a reason why it didn't work in Atlanta. Quinn never actually knew how to run that defense. He was a defensive line coach with terrible game management. Morris is showing just how much better the defensive talent was than the scheme by putting guys in spots to win. 

Yeah, Gus was/is the same way. Didn't seem to ever adjust to what offenses schemed to holes in the defense nor altered the scheme to fit players strengths. Wash does the same thing now.

I don't see either being issues with Saleh.

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