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turtle28

Assessing Washington's Free Agent Signings

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1 hour ago, PARROTHEAD said:

For Dan. It comes down to making 100 million using the full cap and building up the team for the fans that hate you. Or make 120+ million keeping unpenalized under the cap.

Im not putting any of this on Rivera. This is all Dan and how fat he wants his wallet. Rivera is just the guy that has to make do with whats given or whats allowed.

I don’t agree with this premise. Dan spent money all the way up until Bruce took over. Bruce is famously cheap and this showed over the years as we continuously lost homegrown talent. As @naptownskinsfanhas pointed out before Rivera and his staff were not big players in free agency during his tenure in Carolina so we probably will continue our cheap ways. The idea that Dan can’t make more money as a winner is just silly. Dan has paid countless coaches record-breaking money. The guy will spend. This idea that he all of a sudden doesn’t care is lost on me. He’s a terrible owner and can’t win no matter what he tries but he’s not cheap and he loves this team. 

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1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

I don’t agree with this premise. Dan spent money all the way up until Bruce took over. Bruce is famously cheap and this showed over the years as we continuously lost homegrown talent. As @naptownskinsfanhas pointed out before Rivera and his staff were not big players in free agency during his tenure in Carolina so we probably will continue our cheap ways. The idea that Dan can’t make more money as a winner is just silly. Dan has paid countless coaches record-breaking money. The guy will spend. This idea that he all of a sudden doesn’t care is lost on me. He’s a terrible owner and can’t win no matter what he tries but he’s not cheap and he loves this team. 

Hes grown more neglectful year by year as the fans hate for him grew. Last few seasons it sounds like he was totally tuned out as to what all was going on.

Theyve always said. Only 20-30% of teams are out there actively trying to win it all. Past decade doesnt show to me that were one of those. But Ill give you a 30% chance of being right.

I do think people stuck in the American sports mold have a hard time seeing things as clearly as those use to the rest of the worlds sporting systems. Any other system team have to win or be punished for it. Pay scales are implemented for how well you do. If that was in the NFL. Then youd see what Dan was really made of in trying to help build this team. Because his money would be dependent on it. But weve seen free agency and trade sessions pass on by with nothing done. Call it a "evaluation" all you want. But the holes were bright and clear before long before the trade period ended. While we have a new president that doesnt work the football side, and been 11 months without a true GM.

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4 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Hes grown more neglectful year by year as the fans hate for him grew. Last few seasons it sounds like he was totally tuned out as to what all was going on.

Theyve always said. Only 20-30% of teams are out there actively trying to win it all. Past decade doesnt show to me that were one of those. But Ill give you a 30% chance of being right.

I do think people stuck in the American sports mold have a hard time seeing things as clearly as those use to the rest of the worlds sporting systems. Any other system team have to win or be punished for it. Pay scales are implemented for how well you do. If that was in the NFL. Then youd see what Dan was really made of in trying to help build this team. Because his money would be dependent on it. But weve seen free agency and trade sessions pass on by with nothing done. Call it a "evaluation" all you want. But the holes were bright and clear before long before the trade period ended. While we have a new president that doesnt work the football side, and been 11 months without a true GM.

When did I call it an evaluation? I was the one getting bashed for being pissed off about the teams approach to the off-season but was told time and time again Rivera needed to see what we had and so and so was simply too expensive. I don’t think it has anything to do with Dan. If Dan were out waving his checkbook around signing big name players he’d get beat up on by fans and media. It’s a damned if you, damned if you don’t situation. 

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25 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

When did I call it an evaluation? I was the one getting bashed for being pissed off about the teams approach to the off-season but was told time and time again Rivera needed to see what we had and so and so was simply too expensive. I don’t think it has anything to do with Dan. If Dan were out waving his checkbook around signing big name players he’d get beat up on by fans and media. It’s a damned if you, damned if you don’t situation. 

Well I apologize for wrongly grouping you in with those "evaluation" excuse makers.

But it does have to do with Dan. Kerrigan should have been on the block since the draft. But theres nobody around to do anything. The new president cant. He handles the business side. Kyle Smith cant. We have no GM or any authority to get anything done right now on that side. Everything is just sitting on the back burner cause it seems Dan cant be bothered. We could have gotten something decent for Kerrigan from a team needing just a couple pieces for a deep playoff run. And we will get nothing but maybe a compensatory pick out of it.

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14 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Well I apologize for wrongly grouping you in with those "evaluation" excuse makers.

But it does have to do with Dan. Kerrigan should have been on the block since the draft. But theres nobody around to do anything. The new president cant. He handles the business side. Kyle Smith cant. We have no GM or any authority to get anything done right now on that side. Everything is just sitting on the back burner cause it seems Dan cant be bothered. We could have gotten something decent for Kerrigan from a team needing just a couple pieces for a deep playoff run. And we will get nothing but maybe a compensatory pick out of it.

Dan was never going to agree to trade Kerrigan, even if Ron - or if we had a true GM wanted to - Dan would’ve vetoed it. 
 

A compensatory pick isn’t nothing. It’s probably around what we would’ve gotten for Kerrigan anyways. People overrate Kerrigan. He was injured last year at the age of 31, he’s 32 and will be 33 when the season starts next year. Also, as time has gone on in his career, he has been less and less willing to play the run.
 

He’s an effective pass rusher bc of his ability to rip under RTs and beeline straight to the QB, he has no speed around the edge though to threaten that way as a pass rusher and doesn’t set the edge well anymore in the run. He’s going to be 33 before the season starts next year, the Td ancient for a pass rusher.

Again a mid round comp pick is about what we would’ve gotten for him anyway in compensation in a trade if he decides to go elsewhere and we don’t sign a big time FA to offset his loss.

Edited by turtle28

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12 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I don’t agree with this premise. Dan spent money all the way up until Bruce took over. Bruce is famously cheap and this showed over the years as we continuously lost homegrown talent. As @naptownskinsfanhas pointed out before Rivera and his staff were not big players in free agency during his tenure in Carolina so we probably will continue our cheap ways. The idea that Dan can’t make more money as a winner is just silly. Dan has paid countless coaches record-breaking money. The guy will spend. This idea that he all of a sudden doesn’t care is lost on me. He’s a terrible owner and can’t win no matter what he tries but he’s not cheap and he loves this team. 

Let me be clear- the Panthers were not big FA spenders, but that doesn't mean that they didn't spend to keep their own players.  They did- although it is anyone's guess as to what happened with their divorce between Josh Norman and the team, aside from Dave Gettleman and Norman's former agent Michael George.  

I think you need to marry the two approaches, because you can be one player away- like the Patriots were for their most recent run when they signed Stephon Gilmore.  But you have to develop your talent consistently, re-sign your own and be able to bring in guys who you can add to the core.  Ignoring FA entirely like the Panthers did doesn't work either, and we are the poster child for what happens when you try to build a team primarily through free agency from years ago. 

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Should they be more aggressive in free agency? Sure. Is it going to help all that much? Probably not.

The guys who hit free agency fall into four camps: 

1. Older vets who are trying to hang on a little longer. Some might be trading on their name or past performance. Others are trying to score a roster spot with a vet min plus deal. Good for filler, but short term fixes.

2. Rookies coming off their rookie contract trying to make the big score. Sure, they are in their prime, but the main question you have to ask is why did their previous team let them walk when they saw them for four years and developed them? Price is also going to be stratospheric for them. These are likely the deals you regret in two to three years, if not sooner. However, you might get decent play relative to their contract up front.

3. The bubble players who make up the bottom of your roster. They're there. Eminently replaceable with late round picks and UDFAs. Likely they were the former late round pick or UDFA who squeezed the previous generation of roster fluff into the market.

4. Reclamation projects. These might be one of those high priced talent that got cut when their team realized their regrets two years later. These guys are mad and want to prove they were wronged. Plus side is they are probably cheap (especially if you wait) and have a chip on their shoulder. Down side is they are (or should be) a one year solution. Either they bomb out and fall into camp #1 the following year, or they ball out and fall into camp #2 again. Under no circumstances should you re-sign these guys at market rate. Let some other team make that mistake.

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6 minutes ago, Woz said:

Is it going to help all that much? Probably not.

 

QOaF63z.jpg

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About free agents. Only one out of ten does as well with his new team as he did with his old team. Only one in about 50 exceed and does better with his new team. Free agents are all products of the schemes they were originally in with their first teams. Trying to have a player in a different scheme or in the same scheme but different players around him usually doesn't provide a great substitute. Drafting well is the best way to go. Look at the Steelers and Ravens whom use the draft approach and have managed to be consistent playoff contenders.  

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1 hour ago, Skinscavalier said:

About free agents. Only one out of ten does as well with his new team as he did with his old team. Only one in about 50 exceed and does better with his new team. Free agents are all products of the schemes they were originally in with their first teams. Trying to have a player in a different scheme or in the same scheme but different players around him usually doesn't provide a great substitute. Drafting well is the best way to go. Look at the Steelers and Ravens whom use the draft approach and have managed to be consistent playoff contenders.  

The draft is great and should be a focal point, but master carpenters don't just use a hammer, they use all the tools they have access too.

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On 11/18/2020 at 10:15 PM, PARROTHEAD said:

Hes grown more neglectful year by year as the fans hate for him grew. Last few seasons it sounds like he was totally tuned out as to what all was going on.

Theyve always said. Only 20-30% of teams are out there actively trying to win it all. Past decade doesnt show to me that were one of those. But Ill give you a 30% chance of being right.

I do think people stuck in the American sports mold have a hard time seeing things as clearly as those use to the rest of the worlds sporting systems. Any other system team have to win or be punished for it. Pay scales are implemented for how well you do. If that was in the NFL. Then youd see what Dan was really made of in trying to help build this team. Because his money would be dependent on it. But weve seen free agency and trade sessions pass on by with nothing done. Call it a "evaluation" all you want. But the holes were bright and clear before long before the trade period ended. While we have a new president that doesnt work the football side, and been 11 months without a true GM.

The way it works is it’s capitalism, teams get money in all sorts of ways, by advertising, by promotions, through the TV networks etc, etc. That isn’t changing.

11 months w/o a true GM? We only had a true GM once the last 21 years and that was Scot McCloughan. I didn’t consider Cerrato a true GM, he was just Dan’s puppet and Bruce Allen wasn’t a football guy/true GM either.

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On 11/20/2020 at 12:21 AM, PARROTHEAD said:

QOaF63z.jpg

Just for clarification, are saying the addition of Allen improved this team?

  1. He wasn't a free agent signing, but a trade. Even the article that @turtle28 referenced pointed as such.
  2. I will disagree wholeheartedly with you should my interpretation of your comment be correct.

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10 minutes ago, Woz said:

Just for clarification, are saying the addition of Allen improved this team?

  1. He wasn't a free agent signing, but a trade. Even the article that @turtle28 referenced pointed as such.
  2. I will disagree wholeheartedly with you should my interpretation of your comment be correct.

Hes injured. Saying it would have been helpful to have someone that doesnt get a 0.2 pff rating to help.

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On 11/20/2020 at 12:49 PM, offbyone said:

The draft is great and should be a focal point, but master carpenters don't just use a hammer, they use all the tools they have access too.

Yes, but the players you find in free agency are more along the lines of a hex screwdriver than your normal flathead or Phillips head screwdriver. Sure, it has its purpose in your tool chest, but it isn't your go to option.


Consider this article which lists the 7 best and 8 worst free agent signings https://www.thesportster.com/football/the-7-best-and-8-worst-washington-redskins-free-agent-signings-under-dan-snyder/ as of 2016, for wins

  1. London Fletcher (he would be my #1 as well)
  2. DeSean Jackson (#3)
  3. Andre Carter (*)
  4. Casey Rabach (doesn't make my list)
  5. Pierre Garcon (#2)
  6. DeAngelo Hall (#4)
  7. Marcus Washington (*)

(*) Go back and forth between Washington and Carter as the #5. It would be cheap to say it's a tie.


Fletcher was a vet trying to hang on ... who hung on for 6 years. That's incredibly rare.

Garcon was a guy coming off a rookie deal who signed big and paid off. That's rare. Carter and Washington fall into this category as well, but were not as successful as Garcon. Still, they were in the positive category. To be honest, three or four solid years from a free agent contributor is arguably what defines a successful free agent signing relative to their salary cap. Above that is just gravy. To be fair, Casey Rabach is in this category as well.

Hall and Jackson were special cases because they got into trouble with their new head coaches (after Philly hired Chip Kelly, and Oakland signed Hall to a big contract then cut him 8 games into said contract). Washington thought they had something like Hall and Jackson in Josh Norman ... alas, they did not.

 

Again, that's from 2016. Has there been any addition that would even sniff the top ten? Some of that is players don't want to come here. But a good chunk of that is that it's rare to find players that are good and available.

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