Offseason Primer

[rocky_rams]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

No, I don't. The only time he ever had one, it was RGIII, and he chose Kirk Cousins over him. Nor do I make any assumptions about how Wilson or Herbert would do in our system. The grass isn't always greener.

Honestly speaking, would you take Goff or Herbert? 
 

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

The more I think of it, the more I don’t see Goff as the QB of the future. he’s 5 years into his career and it seemed like he is who he’s going to be : at best a top 12 QB and at worst top 17-18 QB 

at this point, I’d be shocked if Goff makes it to his next contract with the Rams. 

I think the league is moving in the direction of more mobile QBs and his time might be cut short if he doesn’t dramatically step up. 
 

I know McVay can win with Goff but for that to happen, everything around Goff needs to be very good. And with a contract that large they keep need to be drafting really well AND Goff needs to get rid of his turnover problem. 
 

Goff is Slightly above average and if you can find at least an average QB in the draft or free agency, then I believe McVay can win it all with them

The only way Goff is going anywhere is if he completely implodes or we find the next Russell Wilson/Tom Brady/Kurt Warner/etc. in the Draft/UDFA/FA. Teams don't generally let even average starting QBs hit the FA market. Frankly, I think you're selling Goff short. I'll make two final points:

1) The league is moving in the direction of mobile QBs because of how the college game has evolved and the supply there. Pocket passers aren't suddenly less valuable.

2) As I've pointed out a million times, pocket passers don't hit their prime until their late 20's. The idea that Goff is who he'll always be doesn't square with history.

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

Honestly speaking, would you take Goff or Herbert? 
 

At the moment, Goff. Herbert might prove to be better. He's off to a great start. But I feel confident in what I have in Goff. Baker Mayfield put up some great numbers as a rookie, especially after the Browns ditched Hue Jackson. He hasn't been the same guy since that time. Defenses adjust. They'll adjust to Herbert. How will he respond? I don't know. I know what Jared is.

[rocky_rams]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

The only way Goff is going anywhere is if he completely implodes or we find the next Russell Wilson/Tom Brady/Kurt Warner/etc. in the Draft/UDFA/FA. Teams don't generally let even average starting QBs hit the FA market. Frankly, I think you're selling Goff short. I'll make two final points:

1) The league is moving in the direction of mobile QBs because of how the college game has evolved and the supply there. Pocket passers aren't suddenly less valuable.

2) As I've pointed out a million times, pocket passers don't hit their prime until their late 20's. The idea that Goff is who he'll always be doesn't square with history.

 I agree with you on point one, but why do you think the league is drafting more mobile QBs? The league loves the excitement that College offenses put up and want to follow suit. Simple Evolution. Adapt or stay behind. everything is catered towards the offense. It’s a much more watered down league now. Like the nba with the three point revolution. You see centers now who are 6’8 nowadays.

I highly disagree with you on point 2. I’ve played and watched enough film on QBs to have a really good understanding if they are ever gonna be top 5 in the league. The beginning of the year he looked great. But then he falls flat. Most of his problems are mental. You can almost overcome everything except mental. Goff ain’t ever gonna be in a MVP convo or be top 5-7 QBs in the league 
 

pocket passers do develop later but they also sat for a while. Don’t base it off their age, base it on how many years they started playing QB. the league doesn’t have tolerance to develop QBs as much as they used to  

 

 

[rocky_rams]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

At the moment, Goff. Herbert might prove to be better. He's off to a great start. But I feel confident in what I have in Goff. Baker Mayfield put up some great numbers as a rookie, especially after the Browns ditched Hue Jackson. He hasn't been the same guy since that time. Defenses adjust. They'll adjust to Herbert. How will he respond? I don't know. I know what Jared is.

Sheesh. Now I know where you stand. I like to look at things objectively as possible. 

but this is straight homerism.

Herbert without McVay I’m taking Goff (only because of McVay) but both with McVay, there is no question on who I would take. It’s Herbert 8 times out of 10. 
 

Goff isn’t intelligent enough between the ears to overcome shortcomings without McVay. Let’s assume Herbert is the same as Goff mentally, but he’s younger, more mobile, cheaper, and has a better arm 

 

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, rocky_rams said:

 I agree with you on point one, but why do you think the league is drafting more mobile QBs? The league loves the excitement that College offenses put up and want to follow suit. Simple Evolution. Adapt or stay behind. everything is catered towards the offense. It’s a much more watered down league now. Like the nba with the three point revolution. You see centers now who are 6’8 nowadays. 
 

pocket passers do develop later but they also sat for a while. Don’t base it off their age, base it on how many years they started playing QB. the league doesn’t have tolerance to develop QBs as much as they used to  

 

 

Because of how college football has evolved. The supply of top QBs tend to be more mobile because college and high school have embraced spread offenses with dual threat QBs. It's simply evolution. But as we're seeing in the NFL, pocket passers still are quite effective.

Quote

I highly disagree with you on point 2. I’ve played and watched enough film on QBs to have a really good understanding if they are ever gonna be top 5 in the league. The beginning of the year he looked great. But then he falls flat. Most of his problems are mental. You can almost overcome everything except mental. Goff ain’t ever gonna be in a MVP convo or be top 5-7 QBs in the league

Maybe. Maybe not. Neither you nor I can say with certainty. What I can tell you is that neither Peyton Manning nor Drew Brees were playing anywhere near the MVP level we remember when they were 26 and in their fifth years in the NFL (Goff's age and experience). You can say, "Well, I knew they'd get there." That may or may not be true. But the fact of the matter is that pocket passers develop more slowly than mobile QBs, but their games also age better and tend to last longer.

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

Sheesh. Now I know where you stand. I like to look at things objectively as possible. 

but this is straight homerism.

Herbert without McVay I’m taking Goff (only because of McVay) but both with McVay, there is no question on who I would take. It’s Herbert 8 times out of 10. 
 

Goff isn’t intelligent enough between the ears to overcome shortcomings without McVay. Let’s assume Herbert is the same as Goff mentally, but he’s younger, more mobile, cheaper, and has a better arm 

 

Goff is quite intelligent. The guy runs our offense from the LOS. Some of y'all sell the kid short in a major way when it comes to intelligence.

And I don't know why you'd take Herbert "8 times out of 10." You'd either take him or not. There's no hedging here, dude. You're asking me to make a choice.

We've seen guys like Russell Wilson, Big Ben, and Deshaun Watson show out as rookies and go on to become very good to elite QBs. We've also seen guys like RGIII, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott show out as rookies and then regress. Dak is still a solid to good QB, but he hasn't become the player people thought he could be.

Herbert could end up in either club. I know what Goff is. I know what he has the potential to be. I'm content with what we have in this scenario. If you want to offer me Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, hell yeah, I'll take them. But why risk what we have on an unknown?

[rocky_rams]

6 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Because of how college football has evolved. The supply of top QBs tend to be more mobile because college and high school have embraced spread offenses with dual threat QBs. It's simply evolution. But as we're seeing in the NFL, pocket passers still are quite effective.

Maybe. Maybe not. Neither you nor I can say with certainty. What I can tell you is that neither Peyton Manning nor Drew Brees were playing anywhere near the MVP level we remember when they were 26 and in their fifth years in the NFL (Goff's age and experience). You can say, "Well, I knew they'd get there." That may or may not be true. But the fact of the matter is that pocket passers develop more slowly than mobile QBs, but their games also age better and tend to last longer.

Only difference was that P Manning and Drew Brees were both top 5 QBs or very near the Top 5 in the league by their 5th years 

[rocky_rams]

4 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Goff is quite intelligent. The guy runs our offense from the LOS. Some of y'all sell the kid short in a major way when it comes to intelligence.

And I don't know why you'd take Herbert "8 times out of 10." You'd either take him or not. There's no hedging here, dude. You're asking me to make a choice.

We've seen guys like Russell Wilson, Big Ben, and Deshaun Watson show out as rookies and go on to become very good to elite QBs. We've also seen guys like RGIII, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott show out as rookies and then regress. Dak is still a solid to good QB, but he hasn't become the player people thought he could be.

Herbert could end up in either club. I know what Goff is. I know what he has the potential to be. I'm content with what we have in this scenario. If you want to offer me Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, hell yeah, I'll take them. But why risk what we have on an unknown?

Bro don’t act like Dak, Baker, RG3 (injury) had anywhere near an offensive mind as McVay guiding them. 
 

just look at what Reid has for Mahomes. Mahomes would not be anywhere near as good without Reid 

[rocky_rams]

6 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Goff is quite intelligent. The guy runs our offense from the LOS. Some of y'all sell the kid short in a major way when it comes to intelligence.

And I don't know why you'd take Herbert "8 times out of 10." You'd either take him or not. There's no hedging here, dude. You're asking me to make a choice.

We've seen guys like Russell Wilson, Big Ben, and Deshaun Watson show out as rookies and go on to become very good to elite QBs. We've also seen guys like RGIII, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott show out as rookies and then regress. Dak is still a solid to good QB, but he hasn't become the player people thought he could be.

Herbert could end up in either club. I know what Goff is. I know what he has the potential to be. I'm content with what we have in this scenario. If you want to offer me Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, hell yeah, I'll take them. But why risk what we have on an unknown?

The “kid” couldn’t even tell where pressure was coming from on a cover zero blitz. 
 

the “kid” constantly gets picked off by linebackers and DL. That’s almost always a cause of being fooled by coverage 

[jrry32]

Just now, rocky_rams said:

Only difference was that P Manning and Drew Brees were both top 5 QBs or very near the Top 5 in the league by their 5th years 

No, Brees wasn't. The Chargers let him walk in FA after his fifth year. Brees had a great fourth year in the NFL after being barely starting caliber in his second and third years. In his fifth year, he was top 10, but he wasn't top 5. And there were far less competent QBs at the time. As for Manning, while that's true, the NFL had a real shortage of good QBs at the time. Manning was great in his second and third years (like Goff), but wasn't very impressive in his fourth and fifth years. Simply put, neither guy was playing anywhere near the level of play we will remember when they retire. 

[rocky_rams]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

No, Brees wasn't. The Chargers let him walk in FA after his fifth year. Brees had a great fourth year in the NFL after being barely starting caliber in his second and third years. In his fifth year, he was top 10, but he wasn't top 5. And there were far less competent QBs at the time. As for Manning, while that's true, the NFL had a real shortage of good QBs at the time. Manning was great in his second and third years (like Goff), but wasn't very impressive in his fourth and fifth years. Simply put, neither guy was playing anywhere near the level of play we will remember when they retire. 

I don’t remember 5 QBs playing better than Brees in his fifth year. The main reason Brees was let go was because of his injury (surgery) and SD had the number one pick (wanted E Manning)

P Manning was an All Pro first team by his 5th year. 
 

Sure there prolly wasn’t as good QBs now but almost all the QBs that are better than Goff are ... you guessed it... mobile!
 

So how much time do you think the Rams are gonna give Goff once they see QBs like Mahomes, Watson, Murray, Herbert come on and take the league by storm? 
 

It should be really telling when QBs like Tannehill, Carr, and Cousins are putting up numbers that are much better than Goff

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

Bro don’t act like Dak, Baker, RG3 (injury) had anywhere near an offensive mind as McVay guiding them. 
 

just look at what Reid has for Mahomes. Mahomes would not be anywhere near as good without Reid 

RGIII had Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay as his offensive coordinators in Washington. JFC.

1 minute ago, rocky_rams said:

The “kid” couldn’t even tell where pressure was coming from on a cover zero blitz. 
 

the “kid” constantly gets picked off by linebackers and DL. That’s almost always a cause of being fooled by coverage 

Goff got fooled by Miami's front. It was because they were putting six or seven guys on the LOS and dropping players out at the snap. He's hardly the only QB to have issues with a defense that does that well. Bill Belichick terrorized the NFL for most of the season after they beat us in the Super Bowl using that style of defense. When Tampa Bay tried to do the same thing with the heavy blitzes, he lit them up.

As for him "constantly" getting picked by LBs and DLs, he has thrown 7 Ints to DBs (Awuzie, Wallace, Fuller, Verrett, Rowe, Whitehead, and Sherman) and 3 Ints to DLs (Wilkins, Pierre-Paul, and Kinlaw) this year. On the three picks to the DL, one occurred because Henderson wasn't where he was supposed to be on a screen pass, one occurred because Goff got hit while he was throwing (although, it likely would have been picked if he got it to Kupp anyways), and the other occurred because he got fooled. All three of these interceptions occurred while Goff was under heavy pressure.

It's less about being fooled and more about Goff making stupid decisions under pressure (when he should just take a sack). But yes, Goff gets fooled sometimes. That happens less with experience. That's why pocket passers take more time to develop. Their game is based on being mentally better than the opposition. The more you see, the better you get.

[jrry32]

17 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

I don’t remember 5 QBs playing better than Brees in his fifth year. The main reason Brees was let go was because of his injury (surgery) and SD had the number one pick (wanted E Manning)

P Manning was an All Pro first team by his 5th year. 

Brees didn't even make the Pro Bowl that year. You have your seasons confused. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers after the 2003 season (in the 2004 Draft). Brees's fifth year was 2005. If the Chargers thought he would be the QB he became, they wouldn't have let him walk.

Manning was not a First Team All Pro QB by his fifth year. That occurred in his sixth year. He was a Second Team All Pro in 1999 and 2000, but again, there was a dearth of talent at the QB position. 

Quote

Sure there prolly wasn’t as good QBs now but almost all the QBs that are better than Goff are ... you guessed it... mobile!

And? (Almost all also isn't accurate.)

Quote

So how much time do you think the Rams are gonna give Goff once they see QBs like Mahomes, Watson, Murray, Herbert come on and take the league by storm?

If we keep winning, I don't think they'll care. Watson and Herbert's teams are out of the playoff hunt. Murray's team is below ours in the division. Mahomes is a monster, but there's only one Mahomes. 

Quote

It should be really telling when QBs like Tannehill, Carr, and Cousins are putting up numbers that are much better than Goff

They're also putting up better numbers than Kyler Murray, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson (the 2019 NFL MVP), and your guy, Justin Herbert. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by jrry32

[stl4life07]

7 hours ago, rocky_rams said:

The more I think of it, the more I don’t see Goff as the QB of the future. he’s 5 years into his career and it seemed like he is who he’s going to be : at best a top 12 QB and at worst top 17-18 QB 

at this point, I’d be shocked if Goff makes it to his next contract with the Rams. 

I think the league is moving in the direction of more mobile QBs and his time might be cut short if he doesn’t dramatically step up. 
 

I know McVay can win with Goff but for that to happen, everything around Goff needs to be very good. And with a contract that large they keep need to be drafting really well AND Goff needs to get rid of his turnover problem. 
 

Goff is Slightly above average and if you can find at least an average QB in the draft or free agency, then I believe McVay can win it all with them

Here is the thing about you saying the NFL is moving towards more mobile QBs. It’s a trend doesn’t mean it’s the right way to go necessarily. Right now we are seeing Lamar and Murray having the same questions asked about them. That question is, can they beat you with their arm if you can take their ability to run away? Lamar right now is no and his lack of passing has hurt the Ravens. The past two games people are saying the same thing about Murray. He hasn’t been running and his throwing hasn’t been good to win and it could even cost them the playoffs. Kaep and RG3 are also recent examples of if you take their ability to run they can’t beat you as a passer and both guys struggled once figured out. 

 So again Goff is fine. Goff is the perfect example of old news he isn’t obviously Mahomes so he isn’t untouchable and he has a few horrible games a year which makes you question if the Rams had a better QB how would they do? I’ll use coaching as an example. The Lions had Caldwell and the Lions were winning 9 games and made the playoffs multiple times. They got to the point where they wanted more. What life would be like if they got rid of a good coach in Caldwell looking to find a better coach. They fired him and thought Patricia was better. The Lions were so bad under Patricia that I heard that if Patricia won 24 straight games he still wouldn’t have a better record that Caldwell. So the Lions should’ve realized they had a good coach. The Rams have a good QB and in a league where good QBs are so hard to come by it’s best you not try to look for a better one unless it’s absolutely warranted and with Goff it’s not absolutely warranted.