Offseason Primer

[rocky_rams]

9 hours ago, jrry32 said:

RGIII had Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay as his offensive coordinators in Washington. JFC.

Goff got fooled by Miami's front. It was because they were putting six or seven guys on the LOS and dropping players out at the snap. He's hardly the only QB to have issues with a defense that does that well. Bill Belichick terrorized the NFL for most of the season after they beat us in the Super Bowl using that style of defense. When Tampa Bay tried to do the same thing with the heavy blitzes, he lit them up.

As for him "constantly" getting picked by LBs and DLs, he has thrown 7 Ints to DBs (Awuzie, Wallace, Fuller, Verrett, Rowe, Whitehead, and Sherman) and 3 Ints to DLs (Wilkins, Pierre-Paul, and Kinlaw) this year. On the three picks to the DL, one occurred because Henderson wasn't where he was supposed to be on a screen pass, one occurred because Goff got hit while he was throwing (although, it likely would have been picked if he got it to Kupp anyways), and the other occurred because he got fooled. All three of these interceptions occurred while Goff was under heavy pressure.

It's less about being fooled and more about Goff making stupid decisions under pressure (when he should just take a sack). But yes, Goff gets fooled sometimes. That happens less with experience. That's why pocket passers take more time to develop. Their game is based on being mentally better than the opposition. The more you see, the better you get.

Yeah RG3 I put as an injury regression.
 

While I do agree with pocket passers taking time to develop, Goff not only gets fooled by coverage, he makes worse decisions during pressure. 
 

watch Goff’s tape. The longer he’s in the pocket the more uncomfortable he gets. Even if there isn’t pressure right in his face. It’s during that time that he should be picking defense apart. But he doesn’t. He panics and makes a bad decision 

 

[rocky_rams]

9 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Brees didn't even make the Pro Bowl that year. You have your seasons confused. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers after the 2003 season (in the 2004 Draft). Brees's fifth year was 2005. If the Chargers thought he would be the QB he became, they wouldn't have let him walk.

Manning was not a First Team All Pro QB by his fifth year. That occurred in his sixth year. He was a Second Team All Pro in 1999 and 2000, but again, there was a dearth of talent at the QB position. 

And? (Almost all also isn't accurate.)

If we keep winning, I don't think they'll care. Watson and Herbert's teams are out of the playoff hunt. Murray's team is below ours in the division. Mahomes is a monster, but there's only one Mahomes. 

They're also putting up better numbers than Kyler Murray, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson (the 2019 NFL MVP), and your guy, Justin Herbert. 

You’re right. But Manning and Brees still were recognized as top QBs during their 5th years and Manning’s IQ was much, much higher than Goff’s. Manning arguably had the best football mind for a player ever

[Dr LBC]

15 hours ago, jrry32 said:

15 hours ago, rocky_rams said:

I would like to see us go for a QB in rounds 3-6. Goff needs a fire lit underneath him. Feel like he’s too comfortable. 

Zach Wilson if he drops to the third or Trey Lance seem intriguing. 
 

There's a near zero chance of that happening.

Yeah, Wilson isn't getting out of the Top 15 (comfortably) barring some kind of scandal (he goes to BYU, so I'd seriously doubt that... and this despite my disdain for BYU) or major injury.  Lance will be gone by the early 2nd; if Jordan Love can go in the 1st round, Trey Lance could sneak in there as well.  If we were waiting until rounds 3-6, our best prayer for anyone with actual tools to push Goff (who, again, isn't going anywhere till 2023 because of the way his contract is structured - and will get every opportunity to make good on the contract till then, barring injury) would be hoping that opting out pushes Jamie Newman to 6th or 7th QB off the board.

 

[Dr LBC]

11 hours ago, rocky_rams said:

I don’t remember 5 QBs playing better than Brees in his fifth year. The main reason Brees was let go was because of his injury (surgery) and SD had the number one pick (wanted E Manning)

You must not have been watching, then.  He was playing on the franchise tag in San Diego (with future HOF'ers, and two of the GOAT at their respective positions, at RB and TE) and finished the season 10th in QB rating.  Manning, Favre, Brady, Hasselbeck, and Palmer all clearly outplayed Brees at the QB position; strong arguments can be made for Mark Brunell and Drew Bledsoe that season, as well.

[jrry32]

8 hours ago, rocky_rams said:

Yeah RG3 I put as an injury regression.
 

While I do agree with pocket passers taking time to develop, Goff not only gets fooled by coverage, he makes worse decisions during pressure. 
 

watch Goff’s tape. The longer he’s in the pocket the more uncomfortable he gets. Even if there isn’t pressure right in his face. It’s during that time that he should be picking defense apart. But he doesn’t. He panics and makes a bad decision 

 

Pocket passers making worse decisions under pressure isn't abnormal. Neither is a QB getting fooled by coverage now and then. As for Goff in the pocket, he looks uncomfortable when our WRs are blanketed. He'll stand, wait, and deliver if somebody gets open. Look at that Malcolm Brown checkdown today as an example.

6 hours ago, The LBC said:

You must not have been watching, then.  He was playing on the franchise tag in San Diego (with future HOF'ers, and two of the GOAT at their respective positions, at RB and TE) and finished the season 10th in QB rating.  Manning, Favre, Brady, Hasselbeck, and Palmer all clearly outplayed Brees at the QB position; strong arguments can be made for Mark Brunell and Drew Bledsoe that season, as well.

Yeah, the Brees we know today didn't emerge until his third year in NO. His final two years in SD and first two years in NO were good (even great at times). But he didn't become a MVP caliber QB until he was around 30 years old. I don't think anybody could have told you with certainty that Brees was going to become one of the greatest QBs of all time when he was leaving SD (even ignoring the shoulder injury). Pocket passers keep developing as they age.

[jrry32]

6 hours ago, The LBC said:

Yeah, Wilson isn't getting out of the Top 15 (comfortably) barring some kind of scandal (he goes to BYU, so I'd seriously doubt that... and this despite my disdain for BYU) or major injury.  Lance will be gone by the early 2nd; if Jordan Love can go in the 1st round, Trey Lance could sneak in there as well.  If we were waiting until rounds 3-6, our best prayer for anyone with actual tools to push Goff (who, again, isn't going anywhere till 2023 because of the way his contract is structured - and will get every opportunity to make good on the contract till then, barring injury) would be hoping that opting out pushes Jamie Newman to 6th or 7th QB off the board.

 

It looks like our options would likely be somebody in the group of Jamie Newman, Kellen Mond, Brock Purdy, Sam Ehlinger, and Tanner Morgan. I haven't started evaluating yet, but Ehlinger has never struck me as a NFL QB when I've casually watched him. Newman and Mond are intriguing, but Mond is so inconsistent (has all the physical talent, though, and is coming from an offense that has some similarities to ours). Purdy probably goes back to school. And I haven't really evaluated Morgan.

[jrry32]

@rocky_rams, I'll just note that Herbert and Murray (two guys you named earlier) were absolutely dreadful today. Goff isn't the only guy who has bad games every now and then. I'm not saying you're wrong to prefer them (although, I don't agree with that opinion), but I am saying sometimes, a defense gets the better of you. Saleh and Flores got the better of Goff. Staley got the better of Murray (Murray was lucky not to have four turnovers today). And Belichick, as he tends to do, got the better of Herbert. We'll see how Herbert rebounds next week.

[Dr LBC]

4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

It looks like our options would likely be somebody in the group of Jamie Newman, Kellen Mond, Brock Purdy, Sam Ehlinger, and Tanner Morgan. I haven't started evaluating yet, but Ehlinger has never struck me as a NFL QB when I've casually watched him. Newman and Mond are intriguing, but Mond is so inconsistent (has all the physical talent, though, and is coming from an offense that has some similarities to ours). Purdy probably goes back to school. And I haven't really evaluated Morgan.

I could see Mac Jones being someone McVay might be fond of, but I also expect he and, probably, Kyle Trask to be among those couple of QB's that follow the Lawrence/Fields/Wilson/Lance pack.  And there are probably a number in this forum that would sour on Mac pretty quickly because he doesn't have any better arm strength than Goff has, if not marginally worse.  Desmond Ridder has all the physical tools, but he's got "project" stamped all over his forehead and Blake Bortles was 2-3x the prospect that Ridder is on everything except pure arm talent.  If I'm rolling the dice on anyone it's probably Kenny Pickett, because I think I see a number of the traits in him that you liked in Easton Stick a couple years ago.  He has shown an ability to progress and develop as a passer, at the very least in head game/decision-making, though there are definitely a number of technical aspects to his game he needs to further improve on.  All that said, I think if Pickett checks all his benchmarks, he probably maxes out as a Tony Romo type.

[jrry32]

11 minutes ago, The LBC said:

I could see Mac Jones being someone McVay might be fond of, but I also expect he and, probably, Kyle Trask to be among those couple of QB's that follow the Lawrence/Fields/Wilson/Lance pack.  And there are probably a number in this forum that would sour on Mac pretty quickly because he doesn't have any better arm strength than Goff has, if not marginally worse.  Desmond Ridder has all the physical tools, but he's got "project" stamped all over his forehead and Blake Bortles was 2-3x the prospect that Ridder is on everything except pure arm talent.  If I'm rolling the dice on anyone it's probably Kenny Pickett, because I think I see a number of the traits in him that you liked in Easton Stick a couple years ago.  He has shown an ability to progress and develop as a passer, at the very least in head game/decision-making, though there are definitely a number of technical aspects to his game he needs to further improve on.  All that said, I think if Pickett checks all his benchmarks, he probably maxes out as a Tony Romo type.

I forgot Pickett. My guess is that Mac Jones returns to school if he's not going in the first two rounds. Although, if it looks like Bryce Young will start next year, I could see him leaving. As for arm strength, I think Goff is better there by a good margin. Goff's arm is underrated.

[rocky_rams]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

@rocky_rams, I'll just note that Herbert and Murray (two guys you named earlier) were absolutely dreadful today. Goff isn't the only guy who has bad games every now and then. I'm not saying you're wrong to prefer them (although, I don't agree with that opinion), but I am saying sometimes, a defense gets the better of you. Saleh and Flores got the better of Goff. Staley got the better of Murray (Murray was lucky not to have four turnovers today). And Belichick, as he tends to do, got the better of Herbert. We'll see how Herbert rebounds next week.

I actually don’t prefer Murray. I’m not a fan of his. Herbert is def intriguing. 
 

but I’ve noticed every time I’m critical of Goff, he plays better and every time I compliment him he doesn’t do so well...so guess what imma be doing from here on out? 

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, rocky_rams said:

I actually don’t prefer Murray. I’m not a fan of his. Herbert is def intriguing. 
 

but I’ve noticed every time I’m critical of Goff, he plays better and every time I compliment him he doesn’t do so well...so guess what imma be doing from here on out? 

In that case, please call him a bum who has no chance against a mastermind like Bill Belichick. BTW, every time I add Goff to my fantasy team, he plays terrible. I cut him after the SF game. I like to think it helped. 😂

[btfd16]

19 hours ago, jrry32 said:

It looks like our options would likely be somebody in the group of Jamie Newman, Kellen Mond, Brock Purdy, Sam Ehlinger, and Tanner Morgan. I haven't started evaluating yet, but Ehlinger has never struck me as a NFL QB when I've casually watched him. Newman and Mond are intriguing, but Mond is so inconsistent (has all the physical talent, though, and is coming from an offense that has some similarities to ours). Purdy probably goes back to school. And I haven't really evaluated Morgan.

Looking at this, it doesn't make me a very big believer of this QB class after the first few. 

[jrry32]

11 minutes ago, btfd16 said:

Looking at this, it doesn't make me a very big believer of this QB class after the first few. 

Being blunt, how many long-term starting QBs have been found outside the first round over the past 20 years? I think you could be skeptical of almost every QB class outside of the first 40 or 50 picks (and that's being generous) and be right. To try and answer my own question, we have: Tom Brady, Drew Brees (top 40 pick), Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Tony Romo, Derek Carr (top 40 pick), and Andy Dalton (top 40 pick). There are some others who started for periods of time but not truly long term: David Garrard, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gardner Minshew (I'm speculating), Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Foles, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock (again, I'm speculating), Jacoby Brissett, etc.

Basically, the odds are low of finding a long-term starter. The odds of finding a long-term backup and spot starter are better, but they aren't phenomenal either. Honestly, if the Jaguars decide to dump Gardner Minshew, I'd trade a mid round pick for him. He did well working behind a shaky OL with unimpressive weapons. I think he's at minimum a very high quality backup QB. 

[BStanRamFan]

I've got a hunch we sign Von Miller if he gets released. He wants another ring, he would be joining elite talent in Donald/Ramsey, he is familiar with Staley, and Hollywood suits him. I don't know what kind of cap gymnastics we would need to pull off, but I'm guessing there would be interest from both sides.

 

 

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I've got a hunch we sign Von Miller if he gets released. He wants another ring, he would be joining elite talent in Donald/Ramsey, he is familiar with Staley, and Hollywood suits him. I don't know what kind of cap gymnastics we would need to pull off, but I'm guessing there would be interest from both sides.

 

 

Wouldn't mind if we could get Clowney or Von on a reasonable one year deal. Obviously, though, the health with both worries me.