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Good ole ESPN Playoff Machine is online


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Did a little experiment to figure out what it needs to have the Chiefs taking the #1 AFC seed.

Assumption: The Chiefs win out, go 15-1

Pittsburgh would have to lose at minimum one to fall behind - and here's what the machine says:

If Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland, Indianapolis, Buffalo, or Baltimore - the Chiefs are #1
If Pittsburgh loses (only) to Washington, Cincinnati, or Jacksonville - they stay on top.

If Pittsburgh win out as well they obviously will keep the #1 ... 

In any case: See you in the AFC Championship game.

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It's going to be such an important year for that 1 seed, too. Between the bye, and the fact that the 7 seed in the AFC is likely going to be a very strong team, still. The AFC honestly has like 8 reasonably good teams, so I'd rather not have to play any more games than necessary this year. That 7 seed could be Baltimore, Tennessee, Las Vegas, etc.

Ultimately, though, I think we wind up at 14-2 and miss out to Pittsburgh going 15-1.

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If we win tomorrow, I will start paying more attention. Our last five games are Denver, Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Chargers. We should be at least 4-1 in that run. Pittsburgh is not much tougher. Assuming they get past Baltimore, they finish with Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Cleveland.

We beat Baltimore. IF the Ravens win tomorrow, we will own a tie breaker against the Steelers.

J

 

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2 hours ago, mayanfootball said:

And if Pittsburgh, Baltimore must play wk.18? No real advantage to Steelers even if they win.

And if a forfeit ?? Is a possibility.

Don't think a forfeit is an option. As of now, with Jackson on COVID probably out, it's RG III to face PIT. Not the best scenario for the Chiefs right now.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Step one  ... Alex Smith helps the Chiefs getting closer to the #1 seed .. unfortunately that's not good enough if both teams win out ... 

 

But that win should settle the "comeback player of the year 2020" once and for all ... 

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Now that the Steelers have a loss, it gets interesting. However, they still own the tie break, since our loss was in conference. The Steelers play the Bills this week, which looms big. A Bills win gives us the tie breaker, because Buffalo since is AFC and our strongest remaining opponent is New Orleans, and NFC team. It gets messy because records of common opponents is involved.

Here's an article on the fallout.
https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/lists/afc-playoff-picture-kansas-city-chiefs-week-13/

Gotta give it up for Alex Smith. There were always things he did well. It's nice to see him get another chance.

J

Edited by onejayhawk
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  • 2 weeks later...
14 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

If the Steelers lose any game or if the Chiefs win either game, the Chiefs own home field. It could be over tonight, but I don't see the Bengals rising to the challenge.

J

Nope  .. according to the machine ... if Steelers win out and Chiefs lose to Chargers .. the Steelers have it, even if Chiefs win against Falcons.

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I see. The Steelers win a tie breaker if we lose in conference. If both teams have one in and one out of conference, the we own the tie breaker.

Stranger things have happened. Historically, teams do not play hard to get a bye. Pittsburgh needs to beat the Browns, in Cleveland, the same week. 

J

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My expression, before I saw that, was, "a collection of obscure wins and losses." It is interesting how pivotal the Jets are in these scenarios. If they lose as expected, only five scenarios allow a team to get by the Chiefs.

Still, it's best to simply beat Atlanta and end the speculation. 

J

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