How does the Mack trade look now

[patriotsheatyan]

What say you?

[Trojan]

If the Raiders could have selected Josh Jacobs two picks after he went with the Amari Cooper pick that became Abram, I think the Bears clearly won. The other first turned into Damon Arnette who was roughly in range of a prospect as Jaylon Johnson who the Bears took with what was our (Raider) 2nd before the trade. The money saved from Mack not extended could arguably be the money that ended up going to Trent Brown who has missed a lot of time.

Josh Jacobs is a phenomenal player for the Raiders though, and they are very lucky to have selected him with the Mack pick to make the trade look better. Had Abram gone with that pick instead and then missed his rookie year and was hot/cold year 2, the trade would look like a blow out win for Chicago I feel like. Had Chicago's picks looked like potential answers at QB that might have been a strike against them for going all in on Mack, but they realistically only missed out on either Drew Lock or Jordan Love.

[El Ramster]

Raiders smashed out the Bears. Bears have way more problems than what Mack can ever fix. Dudes been hampered by injuries. I don’t understand how Floyd couldn’t produce in Chi with Mack and those big boys in the middle. All we heard was that he sucked. Dudes been A1.. Raiders killed that trade. 
 

Mack turns 30 at the start of next season.. Takes up a lot of the cap. And is often knicked and the bears aren’t going anywhere for the next 3 years without a QB and HC. Them boys trash. How do you get 10 yards of offense vs the god awful Vikings and Cousins in the second half? That should be a crime. Gosh dayum. 
 

I bashed(many) the raiders for the trade atm. But man! Josh Jacob alone is worth the trade. You sprinkle in the rest and it’s great. Great young cheap talent. Mack was never going to make the Raiders defense great l.. 

 

Like them boys like saying. 
 

 

BEAR DOWN.. Great job Raiders nation. Not sold on Carr or Gruden. But Mayock is that dude. Future looks bright! Raiders nation stand the hell up. 
 

serious question. Is Mack a HOF player if he retired today? IM FINNA SAY NAH. 
 

[BayRaider]

Too early to tell, but trending in the Raiders direction. Funny cause everyone was smashing on the Raiders for the trade. Fans in general always react too early. 

[Darbsk]

Looking at the trade in isolation of other moves made (like at QB for the Bears) then the Bears clearly gave themselves an opportunity at a deep playoff run. The problem for them appears to be QB and OL, if they'd got a Tannehill instead of a Foles type situation then they would be contenders almost surely. The trade worked out well for them in that aspect. They got an elite defensive playmaker who puts their D over the top and left them needing to put together a decent or at least competent offense. That they haven't yet is not really part of the trade. The trade gave them a chance and they've so far not taken it.

The Raiders obviously created a lot of cap room and had numerous high draft picks, Jacobs is great and Edwards and Arnette look like they will likely work out but the excess cap created could have been used more effectively. We can say it went to Trent Brown who has been great on the field albeit not frequently enough or you could say it went to Mariota, Witten and Collins in which case its a total waste. The Raiders haven't really lost out due to the draft picks but they didn't hit a home run either due to the FAs acquired with the freed space. Of course it's more acute because the pass rush has been the biggest let down.

Both sides have won small victories but neither has fully taken advantage is my take.

 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Darbsk

[Kip Smithers]

Difficult to say tbh. Mack has definitely made the bears better. They just don’t have a QB to compliment their defense which is a shame. I’d it’s a wash. I admittedly was one of the people that hated the trade for the Raiders because too often teams overvalue draft picks in comparison to proven commodities. 

[diamondbull424]

I mean if we’re giving the Bears points for what they attempted to do but failed at in part because of the trade, then I think its fair to give the Raiders points for what they too also attempted to do with their cap space, but ultimately failed at... like signing a difference making WR like Antonio Brown. Probably similar money to the cap freed up (no idea). How much more impactful might the team had been with that cap space had Brown not went nuclear?

Personally, I just look at the value they received and I think the Raiders won from that standpoint alone, but I’m biased, I thought they won at the time as well. They freed up cap space to give them the ability to attempt big moves and/or plug weaknesses. And they got picks to add young, cheap talent. They were able to fill multiple holes on the team with those selections and with that cap, which over time means we can’t even fully quantify the impact those moves allowed them to do in making their team more competitive overall. Same thing for the Bears when we factor in that component to that Mack deal.

That said, the Bears move allowed them to make the playoffs, so even though I think the Raiders move sets them up better for the future and is ultimately why I give them the win, I do think that demands sufficient follow through, such as actually making the playoffs.

Quote

 

Raiders Got:
Josh Jacobs
Damon Arnette
Bryan Edwards
Hunter Renfrow (the 6th was used with Osemele to move up and ultimately get Renfrow

Bears Got:
Khalil Mack
Cole Kmet
Arlington Hambright

 

But just from a potential standpoint, Jacobs is showing to be a top 15 back that has really helped balance that offensive attack and make Carr more effective. Bryan Edwards when healthy looks like he’ll be a threat for their offense. And Renfrow has shown to be a serious weapon in the slot for the past couple seasons. Arnette is also probably about as good as Kmet is respectively. Though a quality corner is worth more than a quality TE in positional value. Mack would probably need another AP season and Kmet would need to breakout for the Bears to have any chance of “winning” this trade.

[Forge]

Quote

 

Raiders Got:
Josh Jacobs
Damon Arnette
Bryan Edwards
Hunter Renfrow (the 6th was used with Osemele to move up and ultimately get Renfrow

Bears Got:
Khalil Mack
Cole Kmet
Arlington Hambright

 

If that is the trade, I'm still kind of happily taking the Bears end of this (for the time being) 

 

[diamondbull424]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

If that is the trade, I'm still kind of happily taking the Bears end of this (for the time being) 

 

Yeah I figured it probably should be added as reference. Since I myself couldn’t recall the exact components of the deal.

[BayRaider]

14 hours ago, Forge said:

If that is the trade, I'm still kind of happily taking the Bears end of this (for the time being) 

 

Gotta think about free cap as well. Mack and Carrs contract would of really locked us down. 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Gotta think about free cap as well. Mack and Carrs contract would of really locked us down. 

Yeah, still taking Mack. You have to pay for players. 

[BayRaider]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yeah, still taking Mack. You have to pay for players. 

Meh, I’ll take 2 1st’s for any player in the league that’s not a Top 10 QB. The trade has worked out so far. I think we’ll be able to call this at the end of 2021 which would be 4 years. 

[Forge]

Just now, BayRaider said:

Meh, I’ll take 2 1st’s for any player in the league that’s not a Top 10 QB. The trade has worked out so far. I think we’ll be able to call this at the end of 2021 which would be 4 years. 

I think you keep yourself in a perpetual rebuild that way given that only elite players (or guys who are close enough to that level) are getting that kind of return and your odds of getting that on even two picks is pretty substantially low, especially when teams that are making such moves are usually at least pretty good resulting in higher draft picks. The Bears bottomed out because of mitch last year, which was great for the Raiders, but the trade easily could have been two picks in the mid 20's...that's not actually all that great. You want elite players...especially at positions of importance. 

I agree that this would be more of a slow burn for the Raiders. The trade was always going to be better for the Bears initially because Mack was in his prime and rookies often take time. As Mack heads toward the downslope of his career now, and the Raiders young guys start to pick up steam, we will get a better idea. Ultimately, the Bears probably already got the best part of their trade and people can decide on whether or not that was worth what they gave up. I don't have a problem with it, and though it didn't work out Lombardi wise, I still think that they are winners in the trade, even if the Raiders eventually get the better end of the deal or the Bears don't get much better team wise. Sometimes, unfortunately, you just miss your window. Winning super bowls is hard. 

All things considered, seeing what people are giving up now for the likes of Jamal Adams, Tunsil, etc...The bears got a really good deal for Mack given they got that second rounder back (not a small deal). Secondarily, I'll almost always favor the side that got the best player, especially when the best piece for the other team thus far is a running back (personal opinion on running backs and their value going on there, obviously). But Arnette and Edwards will require more seasoning and time to cook (Renfrow is a nice piece, but I don't think he's becoming Wes Welker with regards to being a focal point of an offense)

[patriotsheatyan]

IMO: If the Bears signed Mack as a free agent to a 6 year, 141 million dollar contract people would view it like they hit a single at this point. Mack easily lived up to it his first season, but the last year and a half it’s debatable whether he has lived up to his contract. Throwing in the loss of two first round picks, and I think this has been an easy loss on their part. 

[JAF-N72EX]

I'll just quote my own post that I made not too long ago about the Mack trade along with a few small changes (all noted by "***").

The Raiders also packaged our 5th round pick with Osemele to move into the 4th round (140) from the Jets, and then packaged the 140 pick with their 35th pick (early 2nd rd) to move down and get 38(2nd) and 109(early 3rd) from the Jags. And then they traded those two picks to move down again to get 40(2nd) and 159 (5th). Plus a ton of other moves that were somehow connected to the trade.

Really what the trade turned into was: 
Bears: Khalil Mack, Cole Kmet, Arlington Hambright
Raiders: Josh Jacobs, Damon Arnette, Trayvon Mullen, Bryan Edwards, A.J. McCarron, Isaiah Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Quinton Bell.

I'll be honest, I didn't care for the move at the time simply because I didn't believe in Trubisky, nor did I believed that we were only a pass rusher away from being a contender -- which IMO is the ONLY time a team should make trade like this one -- and I felt like we needed those draft picks in the future to fill several other holes on the roster as well. Besides, the Cutler trade (along with several other FO mistakes over the years) will always and forever have me second guessing big moves like these.

However, I underestimated just how much of an effect a player like Mack would have on the team. He took over what was already a good defense in 2017(just injured) and he helped make them great and that's exactly what great players do....they help take their team to the next level. I always say, good players help a team remain level, but great players help elevate them. 

Without Mack, this defense would've still been good but nowhere near how historically great they were in 2018 and there is no way in hell we get a 1st round bye and are just a missed FG away from going to the NFC championship game. 

Looking back on the 2018 season we likely go 9-7 (possibly even 8-8) that year instead of 12-4. And if everything else around the league stayed the same we barely eke into the 6th round spot in the playoffs by taking Philly's spot (also 9-7) by winning the tie-breaker and, coincidentally, keeping them out of the playoffs entirely and we end up playing the Cowboys on their turf in the WC round instead of Philly in the divisional round at home. ***(Correction: For some reason at the time I thought that we had a bye that year with a 12-4 record but the main point still stands)

The 2018 playoffs would have looked like this:
1: Chiefs (12-4), Rams (14-2) 
2: Patriots (11-5), Saints (13-3)
3: Texans (11-5), Cowboys (10-6)
4: Ravens (10-6), Vikings (9-6-1)
5: Chargers (12-4), Seahawks (11-5)
6: Colts (10-6), Bears (9-7)

Plus, we would also have to factor in that none of those 4 losses in 2018 would have made any difference either since they were not lost because of the defense so you would have to look at the amount of games that were won solely because of the defense and look at what our record would likely have been in 2018 without Mack.

This is my count.

WK1 vs GB = L No change 
WK2 vs SEA = L Defense won this game.
WK3 vs ARI = L Defense won this game.
Wk4 vs TB = W No change. We still win this game.

**Wk5 Bye week. At this point, without Mack the Bears would likely be 1-3 instead of 3-1**

WK6 vs MIA = L No change (***Mack was injured in the 3rd quarter and missed the rest of the game***)
WK7 vs NE = L No change
WK8 vs NYJ = W No change. We still win this game.
WK9 vs BUF = W No change. This is debatable. We probably still win this game because BUF -- even though the defense won this game and the offense was trash. ***Mack missed this game due to injury***
WK10 vs DET = W No change. We still win this game.
WK11 vs MIN = L Defense won this game.
WK12 vs DET = W No change
WK13 vs NYG = L No change
WK14 vs LAR = L Defense won this game.
WK15 vs GB = W No change. We still win.
WK16 vs SF = W No Change. We still win
WK17 vs MIN = W No change. We still win.

 

This brings up another point. For the sake of argument, using this schedule, lets pretend that we do go 9-7 in 2018 instead of 12-4.

If we don't trade for Mack in '18 then Pace no doubt goes into the '19 draft looking at pass rushers, but how many EDGE players were available by the time we picked that would have had as much of an impact as Mack? Spoiler...there were none. 

But in order to look at this as objectively as we can, we would also have to change the draft order too, so lets do it. 

With the Mack trade, we had the 24th pick of the 2019 NFL draft with a 12-4 record. Without Mack we would have had the 17th pick with a 9-7 record.

Now let's look at who would have been available at pick 17 or later and see if they any these EDGE rushers would have had the same impact on the team that Mack has had because I'm drawing a blank. 

Here is a list of all players drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in 2019 starting with pick 17. 

TM  Player          POS AGE

NYG	Dexter Lawrence	DT	21
MIN	Garrett Bradbury C	24
TEN	Jeffery Simmons	DT	22
DEN	Noah Fant	    TE	21
GNB	Darnell Savage	S	22
PHI	Andre Dillard	T	23
HOU	Tytus Howard	T	23
OAK	Josh Jacobs	RB	21
BAL	Marquise Brown	WR	22
WAS	Montez Sweat	DE	23
OAK	Johnathan Abram	S	22
LAC	Jerry Tillery	DT	22
SEA	L.J. Collier	DE	23
NYG	Deandre Baker	CB	22
ATL	Kaleb McGary	T	24
NWE	N'Keal Harry	WR	21
ARI	Byron Murphy	CB	21
IND	Rock Ya-Sin	CB	23
JAX	Jawaan Taylor	T	21
SFO	Deebo Samuel	WR	23
CAR	Greg Little	T	21
BUF	Cody Ford	T	22
TAM	Sean Murphy-Bunting CB	22
OAK	Trayvon Mullen	CB	21 
DEN	Dalton Risner	T	24
DEN	Drew Lock	QB	22
DET	Jahlani Tavai	LB	22
GNB	Elgton Jenkins	C	23
NWE	Joejuan Williams CB	21
CLE	Greedy Williams	CB	21
SEA	Marquise Blair	S	22
NOR	Erik McCoy	C	22
IND	Ben Banogu	LB	23
MIN	Irv Smith	TE	21
TEN	A.J. Brown	WR	22
CIN	Drew Sample	TE	23
PHI	Miles Sanders	RB	22
HOU	Lonnie Johnson	CB	22
HOU	Max Scharping	T	23
KAN	Mecole Hardman	WR	21
PHI	JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR	22
DAL	Trysten Hill	DT	21
IND	Parris Campbell	WR	22
LAC	Nasir Adderley	S	22
LAR	Taylor Rapp	S	21
ARI	Andy Isabella	WR	22
KAN	Juan Thornhill	S	23
SEA	D.K. Metcalf	WR	21

 

We don't know what Pace's draft board looked like but Montez Sweat and Ben Banogu were the only two pass rushers left available, within range, who fit Fangio's scheme so it's more than likely that he picks one and neither of them would have even come close to having the same impact as Mack has had. Not to mention, taking Banogu at 17 would have been insanely high reach, IMO. 

So MAYBE Pace and his scouts knew more about what the projected draft was going to look like and they knew that pass rushers would be hard to find when they wanted to get one-- even with a 1st or 2nd round pick. 

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by JAF-N72EX