Week 11: WFT vs The Bengals

[naptownskinsfan]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I guess what really bothers me most about this season is we have nothing at LB, no QB, the offensive line is a mess and we badly need a FS. If they continue this approach of only using the draft to improve whilst doing nothing to add to their pot of draft picks we’re just going to be stuck in this purgatory forever. 

In an ideal would, I'd like to see Allen moved for a similar player at another position.  We have too many riches on the DL and need to use one of those guys to upgrade elsewhere.  They need an infusion of talent at LB now, in the worst way.  That would be where I would primarily focus my FA money, as well as FS and a #2 WR.  

I think this off-season, all options need to be on the table to improve.  A couple FA signings like Fuller, a trade or two and then the draft.  I'd even consider some other reclamation projects like Darby again.  

[PARROTHEAD]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I guess what really bothers me most about this season is we have nothing at LB, no QB, the offensive line is a mess and we badly need a FS. If they continue this approach of only using the draft to improve whilst doing nothing to add to their pot of draft picks we’re just going to be stuck in this purgatory forever. 

Just a little bit more and youll be hit with that John Belushi moment.

[turtle28]

 

[turtle28]

9 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

In an ideal would, I'd like to see Allen moved for a similar player at another position.  We have too many riches on the DL and need to use one of those guys to upgrade elsewhere.  They need an infusion of talent at LB now, in the worst way.  That would be where I would primarily focus my FA money, as well as FS and a #2 WR.  

I think this off-season, all options need to be on the table to improve.  A couple FA signings like Fuller, a trade or two and then the draft.  I'd even consider some other reclamation projects like Darby again.  

I just wonder if we get what we think we’ll get in return by trading Allen. Generally, teams don’t trade their top LBs bc they’re so important to stopping the run and defending the pass - particularly against TEs. If we got back a good starter at LB, FS, TE or WR I’d do it or a 1st round pick but I doubt we get that in a trade.

I also think while this forum and I’m sure some other fans are fantasizing about trading Allen all the time that this is NOT on Rivera’s radar at all. I don’t think Washington is going to trade Jon Allen or Da’Ron Payne. People get too wrapped up in the sacks that Kerrigan & Settle are getting when they’re coming in fresh in the middle of the game and playing vs players who have been out there battling for dozens of plays. Kerrigan and Settle aren’t doing any of the dirty work, I would hope when they come in fresh off the bench that they’re quick and ready to go. Don’t get me wrong, I’m impressed by what both are doing but at the same time they’re not getting beat up in the run game and they’re not having to pass rush over and over and over during a game. I think it’s easier for them to come in fresh off the bench but I am impressed by their impact in such small snap counts.

Still, I don’t think Allen is traded, I think Rivera will re-sign him. I still think our long term DL are Allen, Sweat and Young and either Ioannidis or Payne but maybe not. They may look to upgrade Payne when he comes up for FA in the draft.

It’s really a puzzle and I have no clue how it will play out but with Allen being the first piece of that puzzle being up for a new deal, I doubt he’s gone, I think it will be one of the other DTs in 3 years.

[lavar703]

Snyder will never trade Allen so it’s kinda silly to discuss it. If anyone goes I’m betting it’s Ioannidis even though he’s the best of the bunch. 

[Thaiphoon]

17 hours ago, offbyone said:

We got the best player in the draft last year.  Did that change anything?  Not so much.  Draft picks aren't everything.  I heard Joe Burrow was going to change the franchise of cinncinnati, but now he might never be the same.  Don't waste your football season thinking about what could be in the draft.

So if top picks don't change anything, then let's trade them all away for 7th rounders. You're looking at the short term fix. Chase locks the position down for a decade-plus. Burrow's injury was unfortunate, but until then he was locking down the position there for a long time as well.

 

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The problem is you have been Snydered.  You are one of these people that now thinks winning the offseason is more important than winning during the actual season.  Don't worry you aren't alone in this.  You need to retrain your brain.  

Live in the now my friend! 

 

Nope. I'm a person who has transformed multiple organizations successfully. Each time I did I came on the heels of someone who tried to "live in the now" and do things short term. Each time they had convinced the client that they were almost there and only needed to do a few tweaks around the edges instead of peeling the onion all the way back and getting to the core of the problem. Sound familiar? Because THAT is what Snyder has done and allowed coaches to do for the last twenty years. And you're just fine with it. So if anyone has been "Snydered", it's you my friend. 

I've never said winning during the season wasn't important. What I've said was that with a team this talent-poor, winning a division title this year is not as important as drafting 10-12 spots higher consistently in 2021. That can transform the team. Winning a division title in a year with THIS roster and the rest of the division not looking like they could be a little league team is not what I consider to be a long term success. That is more of the Dan Snyder "I want to win so I can get butts in the seats and market the hell out of the team so I get more $$ and screw the long term health of the organization." And people fall for it because they want to "see a playoff game". Which is what has been consistently done for twenty years. Which you're apparently fine with. I'm not.

[Thaiphoon]

17 hours ago, offbyone said:

Point is players fail for all kinds of reasons so we shouldn't put so much into a handful of draft slots.

Secondly, if you are correct and we are a D+/C- team, then one player isn't going to make a difference, so why care so much about draft slotting?

Draft slots are important. Falcons had to give up a boatload of picks to move up to get their WR they coveted in Julio Jones. Just as one example. Same can be said in other draft trades. 

As for even one position on the draft board, would you rather be the Colts in 1998 or the Chargers?

 

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As a counterpoint, I would point out that Rivera clearly agreed with your assessment and came to that conclusion last offseason.  Hence, he sat on his hands all offseason and showed zero urgency to improve the team.  Guess what, he blew it.  Because if he was even a little aggressive in free agency and added 2 more solid pieces, we would likely be winning our division by a margin right now.  This is the important lesson.  You should always believe you can win and always try to win every season.  Fortunes change every season.  Top teams fall, crap teams rise.  This is undeniable.  Football also comes with a lot of luck.  This year, lady luck sent us the worst division in football and we failed to capitalize because we were too focused on the future.  

How many times have we won the division under the Snyder short term strategy of "win now, we don't have to fix too many things" ? Did we follow it up with a playoff run the following year? Yes or No?

[Thaiphoon]

17 hours ago, turtle28 said:

That’s a hypothetical. That’s like saying well why didn’t we trade down instead of drafting Chase Young bc we could’ve gotten 3 Firsts... I mean come on. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts! 😂 

Yes. The whole thing is hypothetical. One side is arguing that late season success by our mediocre team will result in success going forward. The last twenty years have shown that to not be the case.

Meanwhile, I can point to multiple times a team has coveted a top 10 pick and traded a boatload of picks to jump up to get the player. The Saints (Ditka) once traded their entire draft to us. We turned it into Champ Bailey and Arrington. The team was on its way to continued success until Snyder got here and started monkeying with "short term fixes".

More recently another trade happened in 2011 (there are others but I wanted to point out what can happen if a team desires a player and is willing to move up). Falcons traded up from #27 to #6 and gave up the following picks:

2011

• 1st
• 2nd
• 4th

2012

• 1st
• 4th

Since everyone wanting to "win now" is convinced that our scouting department can find good players regardless of pick in the draft, then they should be amenable to that trade and agree that it would transform our team for the better, no? This is my point.

 

[Thaiphoon]

14 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

In an ideal would, I'd like to see Allen moved for a similar player at another position.  We have too many riches on the DL and need to use one of those guys to upgrade elsewhere.  They need an infusion of talent at LB now, in the worst way.  That would be where I would primarily focus my FA money, as well as FS and a #2 WR.  

I think this off-season, all options need to be on the table to improve.  A couple FA signings like Fuller, a trade or two and then the draft.  I'd even consider some other reclamation projects like Darby again.  

Agreed. @lavar703Miami traded away a few players last year and have used those trades to restock the cupboard. There's no reason we can't do the same. This next FA, we do need to be players and get the guys we're shooting for (even if overpaying). This would track with my prediction of how the transformation should go in Year 1 and Year 2 (although benching Haskins threw a monkey wrench into the timeline but that still can be overcome if the general strategy is followed). We need to load up through the draft AND Free Agency AND develop our young players. 

[turtle28]

3 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Agreed. Miami traded away a few players last year and have used those trades to restock the cupboard. There's no reason we can't do the same. This next FA, we do need to be players and get the guys we're shooting for (even if overpaying). This would track with my prediction of how the transformation should go in Year 1 and Year 2 (although benching Haskins threw a monkey wrench into the timeline but that still can be overcome if the general strategy is followed).

Miami traded away a lot of players who didn’t want to be there. Let’s take Minka Fitzpatrick, he wanted out because they weren’t using him right and he didn’t want to be part of a tank season, same with Kenyan Drake.

I think the trading of Fitzpatrick actually looks bad for Miami. They traded him to the Steelers and were lucky to be able to do so for a 1st bc the Steelers had just lost their starting FS Sean Davis for the year.

Now, Fitzpatrick is an All-Pro worthy FS. His range and ability to intercept passes and make plays on the ball is arguably the best in the NFL right now.

I remember people questioning that trade when the Steelers made it bc at the time they made it they had a top 10 pick and they didn’t think Fitzpatrick was worth it.

Well, what are those people saying now as he’s the secondary anchor on one of the best defenses in the NFL?

I just don’t see the need at the moment to trade any of our DL. And I don’t think Allen is the one they’ll trade bc he’s the first up for a new contract and they have a lot of cap space to re-sign him. I don’t think Rivera will trade him and as Lavar said Snyder too but even more than that, I don’t think it’s on Rivera’s radar. 
 

If it happens I’ll be shocked. I could see Settle being traded to a good team that needs a starting DT. I could see Ioannidis or Payne being traded next year or the year after if they don’t think they can afford to keep them, but I don’t see it happening this offseason.

[turtle28]

Awful, awful ☹️ 

[PARROTHEAD]

Thai. As portrayed by Dan Aykroyd.

 

[offbyone]

29 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

So if top picks don't change anything, then let's trade them all away for 7th rounders. You're looking at the short term fix. Chase locks the position down for a decade-plus. Burrow's injury was unfortunate, but until then he was locking down the position there for a long time as well.

 

Nope. I'm a person who has transformed multiple organizations successfully. Each time I did I came on the heels of someone who tried to "live in the now" and do things short term. Each time they had convinced the client that they were almost there and only needed to do a few tweaks around the edges instead of peeling the onion all the way back and getting to the core of the problem. Sound familiar? Because THAT is what Snyder has done and allowed coaches to do for the last twenty years. And you're just fine with it. So if anyone has been "Snydered", it's you my friend. 

I've never said winning during the season wasn't important. What I've said was that with a team this talent-poor, winning a division title this year is not as important as drafting 10-12 spots higher consistently in 2021. That can transform the team. Winning a division title in a year with THIS roster and the rest of the division not looking like they could be a little league team is not what I consider to be a long term success. That is more of the Dan Snyder "I want to win so I can get butts in the seats and market the hell out of the team so I get more $$ and screw the long term health of the organization." And people fall for it because they want to "see a playoff game". Which is what has been consistently done for twenty years. Which you're apparently fine with. I'm not.

I love the draft, I love having top draft picks.  I covet our draft picks and am always hesitant to trade them away.  But there is a huge difference between playing the season for draft positioning as opposed to be stingy with your draft picks.

The 1998 draft is a simple lesson in evaluation.  Evaluation is the real problem, not positioning.  It isn't when you pick, it is who you pick.  The 2007 draft is no different.  

In my opinion, managing a Football team is a juxtaposition of living in the now and developing for the future.  You don't pick just one side to pursue.  

I also think, in football, you have the ability to turn a team around very quick.  If Rivera is truly the right guy, then it doesn't take 5 years.  

I also, don't believe in 5 year rebuilding plans.  In 5 years, the the vast majority of roster turns over.  At most you have a 3 year rebuilding plan.

14 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Agreed. @lavar703Miami traded away a few players last year and have used those trades to restock the cupboard. There's no reason we can't do the same. This next FA, we do need to be players and get the guys we're shooting for (even if overpaying). This would track with my prediction of how the transformation should go in Year 1 and Year 2 (although benching Haskins threw a monkey wrench into the timeline but that still can be overcome if the general strategy is followed). We need to load up through the draft AND Free Agency AND develop our young players. 

This highlights another issue.  You want to restock the cupboard by getting rid of our young talent.  It is contradictory.  You need to look at risk reward.  Maybe Allen hasn't turned into a game changer, but he is a top tier player.  If we trade him, at the very best we get a 2nd rounder.  The likelyhood that you get a better player with that pick is not high.  To me this is just an addiction to the draft and the future.  This is not building.  Building a team means drafting good players and then signing second contracts with those players.  

I don't disagree about Miami.  But that is not a realistic scenario.  The compensation they got was off the charts.  The Tunsil deal was absolutely unbalanced and I hope any GM would make that trade if offered it.  Hence Bill OBrien is no longer employed.  That kind of deal doesn't come around every day.

[Thaiphoon]

33 minutes ago, offbyone said:

I love the draft, I love having top draft picks.  I covet our draft picks and am always hesitant to trade them away.  But there is a huge difference between playing the season for draft positioning as opposed to be stingy with your draft picks.

No one is asking them to take a knee and punt every down. I'm looking for the team to improve as a team and as players but ultimately lose games so that they can be in a better position to stock the team next year. This way you've developed your young guys and they are buying in and you can add fresh talent to the mix. That is a recipe for long term success.

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The 1998 draft is a simple lesson in evaluation.  Evaluation is the real problem, not positioning.  It isn't when you pick, it is who you pick.  The 2007 draft is no different. 

Nope. Correct me if I'm wrong but your (and others') position is that our front office is going to select a great player no matter where we select in the 1st so why worry about where we select, right?

You can evaluate a player all you want. But if he's gone in the pick right before you, that evaluation and all the brainpower of the scouting department means bupkiss.

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In my opinion, managing a Football team is a juxtaposition of living in the now and developing for the future.  You don't pick just one side to pursue.  

Sure. And we've done the living in the now for 20 years. Time to actually try inserting some long-term planning into the mix.

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I also think, in football, you have the ability to turn a team around very quick.  If Rivera is truly the right guy, then it doesn't take 5 years.  

You can turn it around quickly. But it takes very few things needing to be changed to do it. OR...it takes you scuttling your team ahead of time and building up draft capital and going hard in FA to stock up on talent. Miami is a recent example of this.

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I also, don't believe in 5 year rebuilding plans.  In 5 years, the the vast majority of roster turns over.  At most you have a 3 year rebuilding plan.

You're correct about the roster. My earlier assessment had us almost completely turning it over in year 3. It also had us perennially in the playoffs in 3 years and in 5 years winning a SB (or at least NFCC). 

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This highlights another issue.  You want to restock the cupboard by getting rid of our young talent.  It is contradictory.  You need to look at risk reward.  Maybe Allen hasn't turned into a game changer, but he is a top tier player.  If we trade him, at the very best we get a 2nd rounder.  The likelyhood that you get a better player with that pick is not high.  To me this is just an addiction to the draft and the future.  This is not building.  Building a team means drafting good players and then signing second contracts with those players. 

 Yes. I'm amenable to keeping Allen. And amenable to your risk/reward analysis. The Patriots the last twenty years have been pretty good about trading away good/great players and getting good picks/players out of it. I wouldn't get rid of him for just a 2nd though if I were going to go that route. If that was all that was offered, I'd keep him. 

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I don't disagree about Miami.  But that is not a realistic scenario.  The compensation they got was off the charts.  The Tunsil deal was absolutely unbalanced and I hope any GM would make that trade if offered it.  Hence Bill OBrien is no longer employed.  That kind of deal doesn't come around every day.

First. Remember that they also traded Minkah to the Steelers.

But to your general point, you are correct. It doesn't. But it DOES come around. GMs still do big trades. They are not common, but they do happen.  My point is that they were in the position to let some other crazy GM want to make that trade. If someone comes to me and offers the deal that Miami got for Tunsil and Stills for someone like Allen and one of our #2 receivers? I'm pulling the trigger on that trade (provided that we have Ioannidas back and Settle keeps improving).

[offbyone]

57 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Nope. Correct me if I'm wrong but your (and others') position is that our front office is going to select a great player no matter where we select in the 1st so why worry about where we select, right?

You can evaluate a player all you want. But if he's gone in the pick right before you, that evaluation and all the brainpower of the scouting department means bupkiss.

That is the goal.  But yes every team gets it wrong quite a bit.  And I agree that you have more options and flexibility the higher your pick is.  But a team should have a draft board that gives them a wealth of options at any draft position.  

59 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

Sure. And we've done the living in the now for 20 years. Time to actually try inserting some long-term planning into the mix.

Long term planning is not just drafting.  It is resigning players on your team to long term deals, which we didn't bother doing last year.  It is also, signing free agents to long term deals.  We only really got one, Fuller.  Drafting also exists for 7 rounds and not just in the top 10 picks.  Lots of perennially good teams who generally draft >position 15 find very good franchise impacting players.

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

Yes. I'm amenable to keeping Allen. And amenable to your risk/reward analysis. The Patriots the last twenty years have been pretty good about trading away good/great players and getting good picks/players out of it. I wouldn't get rid of him for just a 2nd though if I were going to go that route. If that was all that was offered, I'd keep him. 

I would be open to taking a 1st for allen, but I would be just as happy resigning him.  It is unlikely that we are going to be able to resign Payne, Allen, Sweat, Young, etc.  But I guarantee we aren't if we don't start with Allen now.

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

First. Remember that they also traded Minkah to the Steelers.

I didn't mention Minkah because at best that trade was a push. Minkah is a top talent and has been impactful on the steelers roster from the second they got him.  Hard to judge now, but Austin Jackson is a lesser player in my opinion.  

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

But to your general point, you are correct. It doesn't. But it DOES come around. GMs still do big trades. They are not common, but they do happen.  My point is that they were in the position to let some other crazy GM want to make that trade. If someone comes to me and offers the deal that Miami got for Tunsil and Stills for someone like Allen and one of our #2 receivers? I'm pulling the trigger on that trade (provided that we have Ioannidas back and Settle keeps improving).

I am with you hear.  We should always be open to trading any player at any time if the compensation is correct.  I think you and I both were pissed they didn't trade Trent Williams when they could have.

I understand your general point of view and respect it, but we will have to agree to disagree on this.  I just think the offseason is for the offseason and while you still control your own destiny you should be playing to win.  I was all for tanking last year once we were out of the playoff race.  But we aren't there yet this year.

Come draft day, I might regret some of these wins.  But I also think after Lawrence the qb draft board is full of a bunch of maybes and projects, certainly not top 5 picks.  Yes Sewell would be an impactful addition, but there are other tackles I like too so I am not worried about it.