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Week 11 GDT - Dolphins at Broncos


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33 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Can I just make a few comments about Lock - I don't think that he will become the qbotf - but it is too early to give up on the guy. Yes he does some stupid things - yes he doesn't go through his progressions - yes his footwork sucks. But we do not know a couple of things - has he fully recovered from the shoulder injury? how bad were his ribs yesterday? Are the coaches putting him in the best position to succeed or are they implementing a scheme and seeing if he sinks or swims?

Lock was a 2nd round pick - and he was good value where he was picked.

Of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL

7 were picked at 1.1

17 in the top ten

24 in the first round

Of the current starters - Prescott, Menshew, Cousins, Garoppolo, Wilson and Brady were drafted lower than Lock. Of the last 30 QBs taken in the first round - 10 no longer play (and the Broncos had two of them). 

Unless you are picking in the top two picks it is very much a lottery whether you get a capable QB - and even with the top two picks there are no guarantees (it just improves your chances) - if evaluating a QBOTF was easy then no team would ever lack a starting calibre QB - but it isn't.

Unless Lock completely bombs over the next 6 games I think you have no choice but to see through what he is capable of. I think it is unlikely Fangio is given another QB to work with unless the Broncos can get one of the top two QBs in the draft. While I doubt he will deserve it - I think Elway is really forced to roll with Lock - an off-season of work - the offensive scheme the same for a second season - improvements on the OL - and some quality players back on the pitch.

And as others have said - until the ownership is sorted it is going to be very difficult to build a competitive team with Ellis holding the purse strings.

The thing is, you aren't looking for pick value when it comes to your starting QB. You are looking for a player who is good enough to take your team to where you want to go. Yes, you can't compare every starting player vs every other team because you can't just have 53 1st round picks on your team.

But the starting QB is different - if your QB isn't good enough, then you need a new one. That is it. People's expectations of Lock are that he is good enough. You can paper over the cracks for near enough every position, but your QB is (at least) 50% more important than the next position.

I just don't think where he was selected should be included in any discussions re: Lock. We are evaluating whether he is good enough to be the starting QB of this team, not whether the pick was good value or not.

Now, if we are criticising John Elway's approach to finding a viable starting QB - sure, it becomes entirely relevant then. 

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Drew Lock’s statistics by game.

2019

wk 13vs LAC- 18-28, 134yds, 2 TD, 1 INT 

wk 14vs HOU- 22-27 309yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

wk 15vs KC- 18-40 208yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

wk 16vs DET- 25-33 192yds, 1 TD, O INT

wk 17vs OAK- 17-28 177 yds, 1TD, O INT

2020

wk 1vs TEN- 22-33 216 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

wk 2vs PIT- 1-5 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

wk 6vs NE- 10-24 189 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

wk 7vs KC- 24-40 254 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

wk 8vs LAC- 26-41 248 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

wk 9vs ATL- 25-48 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

wk 10vs LV- 23-47 257 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

wk 11vs MIA- 18-30 270 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

 

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41 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

The thing is, you aren't looking for pick value when it comes to your starting QB. You are looking for a player who is good enough to take your team to where you want to go. Yes, you can't compare every starting player vs every other team because you can't just have 53 1st round picks on your team.

But the starting QB is different - if your QB isn't good enough, then you need a new one. That is it. People's expectations of Lock are that he is good enough. You can paper over the cracks for near enough every position, but your QB is (at least) 50% more important than the next position.

I just don't think where he was selected should be included in any discussions re: Lock. We are evaluating whether he is good enough to be the starting QB of this team, not whether the pick was good value or not.

Now, if we are criticising John Elway's approach to finding a viable starting QB - sure, it becomes entirely relevant then. 

Oh - I agree - the QB position is different - and that is why good college QBs tend to go at the very top of the draft. So - either you suck and get the pick - you sell the farm and get the pick (and there is no guarantee that the pick will be any good) - or you hit the lottery by getting the guy further down or through free agency or a trade.

The only reason why I made the comparison with draft position was to point out how tough it is to find a QB that is capable of leading a team to challenge for a SB.

Specifically in relation to Lock - unfortunately he hasn't been in the best position to succeed - ownership in flux - change in offensive scheme - no off-season - multiple injuries - poor OL play - injuries to key players - inexperience and lack of maturity. The flaws in Lock's game were well flagged before the draft - and I think the jury is still out on if he can improve to the point where he is a capable NFL QB. If you have a QB with talent and potential then you have to put him into the best situation to succeed - and I don't think that is the case at the moment.

Lock is not the only QB who ended up in far from ideal situation - in recent times I think both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen ended up in the worst situations possible undermining their potential to develop as QBs. 

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56 minutes ago, rcpbawler said:

 

Yes, I believe that Fields, Wilson and Lance are all better prospects than Drew lock ever was. The 2 former I'd trust to come in and immediately upgrade the offense while Lance could take a Josh Allen type trajectory .

 

The Drew Lock bashing is in progress........when Denver win this is the defense. When Broncos lose this Lock's fault.

is he responsible for the 4th attempt and 1 unconverted? Gordon's Fumble on the 1 yd line? At least 10 pts should have been scored in addition. Is he responsible for Fitzpatrick's comeback of 75 yds at the end of the game before INT? AJ Bouye's wanderings? Can be that Tua yesterday was not good rather than good defense? Because Lock has the right to be bad but Tua certainly not ......
Everyone wants Mahomes but for that you have to be able to pass within 2 seconds. That's what KC does. Nothing special . Mahomes doesn't need to look for his 2nd option. Look yesterday at LV in the 1st half. 2 passes that are not for the 1st choice of tactics; they just have the staff for.
Yesterday the line and created breaches on els 1st down. Big difference the games called were innovative. Bolles or Risner who crosses the line to get the other side never seen before.

Josh Allen stats:

Passing

     2018                           12 320 169 52.81 2074 6.5 75 10 12 89 27.81 30 28 213 67.9

 

Drew Lock stats:

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3 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

The last pass to Patrick has to be taken out -

And if you look at what he did after the interception with that last pass removed - he went 17-23, 209yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, and a win

Sure, but those INT's matter.    I don't think it's useful to throw out TO’s when it’s on the QB as those are game changing plays.  

At the same time, let's also realize the LAC & ATL stats were inflated in a big way by being in a 3-score hole, and both teams adopting a prevent D strategy in the 2H (Lynn far too soon in the LAC game, combined with Callahan's pick, which led to the improbable W).

The stats don't tell the whole story, they rarely do when it comes to QB's.    The 2019 stats look pedestrian, but it was behind an even worse OL, and far fewer weapons than we have now.    And yet Lock's play in 2019 was cause for optimism.    The same numbers, with far superior weapons, and far more mistakes made by Lock that lead to TO's (or are TO-worthy but don't happen), the lack of progress in his weak spots, they are very much cause for pessimism and concern.     We're back to the formula of "hope the D plays out of its mind, and the O does enough" formula.   That's not going to be sustainable for legit contention, especially with KC/Mahomes, LAC/Herbert (man it hurts me to say that), and LV / balanced O & elite OL play in the mix.   

It doesn't mean the book on Lock is closed - yesterday just kept his stock from falling further, and level out to where there's still some real hope with him - and we see glimpses of what brought hope (the arm, the feel for pressure and internal clock to throw or move, and his mobility / elusiveness when called upon).   But it also still comes with a lot of concerns as well.  The worrisome part is that the concerns are just the areas he's had problems with the longest with in college (footwork with pressure, D recognition, read progressions, looking off safeties, etc.).     The accuracy issues, I'd almost hope he physically isn't 100 percent (unless it's the labrum, obviously bad news, so hopefully it's OK).

One area I will highlight deserves credit for a real change - OC Shurmur was a LOT more unpredictable.    A lot more short / high-success short passes on 1st down (I think there were 5 alone to the TE in the flat, clearly they read something in the week of film prep), and that set up a very successful run game.   There are weeks we will need to pass more, there are others where the ideal is the balance we saw yesterday.  But it wasn't simply that we committed to run more - it's that Shurmur was 10x more unpredictable than in past weeks.     Hopefully we see more of that in the future.

Much like we can easily swing too far into despair after a bad L, we shouldn't get too high with a legit W, either - we earned the W, but it was more of the tried-and-true formula from our 2016 days - great D performance with O not blowing it.     If anything, on O we should take more hope from what we saw from the gamecalling - it gave more opps for the team to succeed.     KC's D has shown it can be beaten in the past few weeks, while I'm not realistically thinking we can win, I'd like to see the O take advantage much like CAR & LV were able to.   That would give a lot more sustainability to long-term hope.

Edited by Broncofan
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1 hour ago, French Fan said:

The Drew Lock bashing is in progress........when Denver win this is the defense. When Broncos lose this Lock's fault.

is he responsible for the 4th attempt and 1 unconverted? Gordon's Fumble on the 1 yd line? At least 10 pts should have been scored in addition. Is he responsible for Fitzpatrick's comeback of 75 yds at the end of the game before INT? AJ Bouye's wanderings? Can be that Tua yesterday was not good rather than good defense? Because Lock has the right to be bad but Tua certainly not ......
Everyone wants Mahomes but for that you have to be able to pass within 2 seconds. That's what KC does. Nothing special . Mahomes doesn't need to look for his 2nd option. Look yesterday at LV in the 1st half. 2 passes that are not for the 1st choice of tactics; they just have the staff for.
Yesterday the line and created breaches on els 1st down. Big difference the games called were innovative. Bolles or Risner who crosses the line to get the other side never seen before.

Josh Allen stats:

Passing

 
     2018                           12 320 169 52.81 2074 6.5 75 10 12 89 27.81 30 28 213 67.9

 

Drew Lock stats:

Again, I'm not bashing him for the sake of bashing. I realize there is context to every game and every play. I would love for Drew to turn it around and prove that he can be a franchise QB, he's young, cost controlled for the next 2 years and obviously talented. Still, you can't ignore that from a traditional statistical standpoint (6.6 yards per attempt, 7 td 11int, 67.5 rating), "advanced" metric/grading (40.2 qbr, 56 pff grade), and the eye test (refer to the numerous game reviews in Lomax's thread) that he has a looooong ways to go to prove he's worth another year as the starter. 

 

I'd love to use our first on another position of need be it CB, LB, OL but QB is such an important position that, unless you're 100% sure that luck is the guy you don't pass on a potential cornerstone at the position.

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4 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

It's such a strange position to be in. I have very little counter argument to @broncosfan_101 who wants us to either win with clear progression being shown by Drew, or lose. There is nothing but logic here.

I just can't not be happy when we win. I just can't not want us to win by any means possible. I think that is likely down to my British upbringing, where franchises don't exist and winning is everything. There is no drafting, and therefore no tanking.

That isn't me saying my opinion is right - far from it. Like I said, I totally understand the reasoning from not feeling the same as I do. But, ultimately, I just want to win. I can't help it.

I long for the day when losing is disincentivized in North American sports. Watching games where your head and your heart are cheering for different outcomes is brutal. 

Edited by broncosfan_101
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Just some reflections on the game. I think it's a bittersweet win as most are saying. Always feels good to win especially when it means snapping a nice win streak on another team. Make no mistake, there were some great takeaways to be happy about especially on defense (though the Fins O hasn't really found a rhythm with Tua...most of their other wins had 1 or 2 defensive TDs or timely interceptions). However, I love some of Shurmers schemes he showed especially the one that French mentioned about Bolles and Risner coming across to the other side to offset out crappy other lineman.

Even with Lock it felt bittersweet to me. Obviously not the start of the game but I did see him looking around for at least a 2nd read on various plays instead of only his first. The worrisome part is he looks completely compartmentalized or maybe anxious as seen on that play with, I think, Attaochu who was wide open. He actually read like 3 or 4 different coverages and looked at him wide open before looking away and coming back...then throwing well over his head despite it being an easy throw. Again, it's like Drew's thought process is "focus on looking for more plays, focus, focus, focus, OK I THINK THERES ONE!" and then he gets excited and overthrows or freezes and gets hit. I suppose kinda like in basketball when you get caught between a shot and a pass and you end up traveling. 

Again back to the game though, I do think this is another "win" where yes, we played pretty decent, but the other team just gave it away. I was reading in the Fins forum how they acknowledged they played abysmally but still took solace that it was a 1 score game. I think that's pretty true. If the Broncos played just like that, with a solid scheme, against more highly powered offenses, they would lose the game.

Edited by Dbrog24
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3 hours ago, rcpbawler said:

Once again, comparing him to the husk of Carson Wentz or a guy who lost his starting job weeks ago is hardly an endorsement for Lock dude. He has absolutely been one of the worst, if not the worst qb in the league if you take off your rose colored glasses.

Yes, I believe that Fields, Wilson and Lance are all better prospects than Drew lock ever was. The 2 former I'd trust to come in and immediately upgrade the offense while Lance could take a Josh Allen type trajectory but has enormous potential (also depends a lot more on the coaching staff to maximize imo).

This offense is ready made. All of the weapons we have at our disposable and another year for the offensive line to grow and gel, I don't see why we're not one of the top destinations for a rookie QB

 

I think Wentz needs a new setting.  I think he'd make a fabulous Bronco if the Broncos wanted to take a run at him.  Wentz has been sacked 40 times this year. I'd say go get Wentz, sign Bolles long-term, give Cush another year, get a high quality RT, find another RG in case Cush cannot make in the NFL as a starter to where you can move Glasgow to Center.  I think you keep Wentz upright with the weapons the Broncos have on offense and Wentz goes back to his MVP form from a few years ago.  

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55 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I long for the day when losing is disincentivized in North American sports. Watching games where your head and your heart are cheering for different outcomes is brutal. 

For me it is the opposite - the attraction of the NFL is the fact that there is a salary cap, a minimum wage and a draft.

Sport in Europe - particularly soccer - has been utterly ruined by TV money - the richest clubs win everything and the entire season of football is utterly predictable - it really is boring in the extreme. A dozen teams around Europe will buy up all the best talent spending hundreds of millions in transfer fees (Man Utd had apparently agreed to pay £160million for an 18 year-old kid last summer before the deal fell through). Three years ago PSG paid out €180million for a 19 year-old - Killian Mbappe - a terrific footballer, but monopoly money. Tens of thousands of kids now take part in academies run by the clubs - some as young as 9 years-old - many taken from their homes in developing countries - and then cast aside after years, often without any real education.

In the NFL you can go from worst to first in the space of a season by drafting well, signing good FAs, managing the salary cap and having good coaching - and you can just as easily go the opposite direction. It is a system that ensures the richest team does not always dominate and that every team and every player has a chance - long may it continue.

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sure, but those INT's matter.    I don't think it's useful to throw out TO’s when it’s on the QB as those game changing plays. 

Of course INTs matter - the point being is that Lock could have fallen to pieces after that awful start - but he didn't - he managed the game well thanks to an effective running game and had some decent throws. The Broncos should have won by at least another ten points - the bogus flag on the first INT - the failure on 4th and 1 - the Gordon fumble on the 1 yard-line. Given what happened at the very start of the game, it could have been a dumpster-fire - it wasn't and the team, on both sides of the ball played better and the coaches coached better than last week and Lock did a decent job after that INT.

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31 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Of course INTs matter - the point being is that Lock could have fallen to pieces after that awful start - but he didn't - he managed the game well thanks to an effective running game and had some decent throws. The Broncos should have won by at least another ten points - the bogus flag on the first INT - the failure on 4th and 1 - the Gordon fumble on the 1 yard-line. Given what happened at the very start of the game, it could have been a dumpster-fire - it wasn't and the team, on both sides of the ball played better and the coaches coached better than last week and Lock did a decent job after that INT.

It's exactly were I stand if he keeps playing like Sunday given how cheap he is I can't see us moving on. That said having Jeff Driskel as your primary backup never felt like a proper plan.

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I realize stats don't lie, and I'm sure one can make the argument that Lock was just as poor overall last year (He had one horrible game against KC, one great game against Houston, with a couple of average games sprinkled in). But the eyeball test tells me that he isn't comfortable running Shurmer's offense, specifically. While he was definitely green last season, he looked poised and confident in Sgang's system; it was more of a matter of getting the game to slow down for him. This year, he looks confused and completely lost. Also appears gun shy, and throws a lot more off his back foot. Horrible interior O-line play will do that to you, particularly when you aren't experienced enough yet to audible your protections. 

I think you give him the rest of the year and an actual offseason. If he still looks this way next season, then sell the farm and go get a top tier QB in the draft. That, or you rebuild a 2015 type defense that can dominate the games for you. 

Edited by 1234567
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25 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

I realize stats don't lie, and I'm sure one can make the argument that Lock was just as poor overall last year (He had one horrible game against KC, one great game against Houston, with a couple of average games sprinkled in). But the eyeball test tells me that he isn't comfortable running Shurmer's offense, specifically. While he was definitely green last season, he looked poised and confident in Sgang's system; it was more of a matter of getting the game to slow down for him. This year, he looks confused and completely lost. Also appears gun shy, and throws a lot more off his back foot. Horrible interior O-line play will do that to you, particularly when you aren't experienced enough yet to audible your protections. 

I think you give him the rest of the year and an actual offseason. If he still looks this way next season, then sell the farm and go get a top tier QB in the draft. That, or you rebuild a 2015 type defense that can dominate the games for you. 

Given where we likely are in the draft, I suspect Elway's going to bring in vet competition if it's not crystal clear Lock is our future guy.   Jameis Winston, Fitzmagic, etc.   Both will likely be affordable (Winston's chance to set a market high value price appears to be gone if NO is sticking with Taysom Hill).   Or trade a day 2 pick (hopefully a 3rd, but a 2nd might be required) for Darnold.    

I posted it last week, but Renck himself posted this sentiment - and even named Darnold as a trade target.   Again, he's not Klis, who we know is the org mouthpiece, but he's as connected to that FO as anyone else.   I don't think he or the coaching staff are going to wait for a rookie solution next year, if Lock isn't the guy.

Edited by Broncofan
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