Week 11 GDT - Dolphins at Broncos

[jsthomp2007]

25 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

I realize stats don't lie, and I'm sure one can make the argument that Lock was just as poor overall last year (He had one horrible game against KC, one great game against Houston, with a couple of average games sprinkled in). But the eyeball test tells me that he isn't comfortable running Shurmer's offense, specifically. While he was definitely green last season, he looked poised and confident in Sgang's system; it was more of a matter of getting the game to slow down for him. This year, he looks confused and completely lost. Also appears gun shy, and throws a lot more off his back foot. Horrible interior O-line play will do that to you, particularly when you aren't experienced enough yet to audible your protections. 

I think you give him the rest of the year and an actual offseason. If he still looks this way next season, then sell the farm and go get a top tier QB in the draft. That, or you rebuild a 2015 type defense that can dominate the games for you. 

This makes sense.  And, perhaps, and I could be wrong, but Rypien seems more cerebral than Lock and seemed way more confident in the Shurmer system.  

[lomaxgrUK]

48 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

I realize stats don't lie, and I'm sure one can make the argument that Lock was just as poor overall last year (He had one horrible game against KC, one great game against Houston, with a couple of average games sprinkled in). But the eyeball test tells me that he isn't comfortable running Shurmer's offense, specifically. While he was definitely green last season, he looked poised and confident in Sgang's system; it was more of a matter of getting the game to slow down for him. This year, he looks confused and completely lost. Also appears gun shy, and throws a lot more off his back foot. Horrible interior O-line play will do that to you, particularly when you aren't experienced enough yet to audible your protections. 

I think you give him the rest of the year and an actual offseason. If he still looks this way next season, then sell the farm and go get a top tier QB in the draft. That, or you rebuild a 2015 type defense that can dominate the games for you. 

But the things that make him uncomfortable in Shurmur's system are traits that are required to be a good NFL QB, most notably presnap reads, pocket manipulation and being able to go through progressions.

I thought the kid played well in parts yesterday, especially an awful start. I will wait for the tape review to comment any more.

[AKRNA]

I think that was probably Locks best game this year, pretty average, but he didn't seem as lost and even made a couple of good calls at the line.

I'm not sure if Glasgow got hurt but Schlottman provided quite  a boost in the run game. He's really a lot quicker than Glasgow on pulls and did some damage in the 4th. Getting Dotson back made a big difference. With Anderson in the wings I don't see how Wilkinson sees the field as a Bronco again. Cush is really starting to get it now. I think a lot may have to do with Shurmer limiting our interior exposure. With Bolles and Dotson on the wings thats not too hard to do.

For posters that like to talk about our "terrible OL" you may want to rethink that. This ain't the same group that lined up week 1.

[AKRNA]

13 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

That's what you're doing lol I'm not moving on from a guy just cause he's not an elite runner at qb.

Josh Allen first 12 games: 52.8% passing 10 TDs 12 INTs 2074 yards 5 -6 as a starter. Drew Lock first 12 games: 58.6% passing 14 TDs 13 TDs 2517 yards 6-6 as a starter.

So, keep in mind, Lock has been terrible through the first 3 quarters of most games this year. If you eliminated his 4th quarter, junk time numbers in losses, just based on stats you'd be amazed he was even playing in the NFL.

The last play of the game yesterday raised his rating by 7 points. 

Yesterday was encouraging because he was much more consistent but he's still got a very long way to go. We've set the bar so low for QB play that even a "not terrible" day is cause for celebration. Now lets see if he can continue to improve.

 

[bMiller031]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

So, keep in mind, Lock has been terrible through the first 3 quarters of most games this year. If you eliminated his 4th quarter, junk time numbers in losses, just based on stats you'd be amazed he was even playing in the NFL.

The last play of the game yesterday raised his rating by 7 points. 

Yesterday was encouraging because he was much more consistent but he's still got a very long way to go. We've set the bar so low for QB play that even a "not terrible" day is cause for celebration. Now lets see if he can continue to improve.

 

Agreed. Toting around Lock's stat line to compare him to other QBs is weak.  His success in the league will be a function of his ability to get through his progressions, make good decisions, make accurate throws, and improve his footwork. We know what he can do with a clean pocket and an open first read .. that was never the problem. 

It isn't a coincidence that his play improves when the run game is effective, he isn't feeling as much pressure, and there is more spacing over the middle of the field as a function of heavier boxes and more run support.  I want to see him surpass expectations when things aren't going his way.. which, I think, it the measure of a promising QB: How effective are they when they can't do what they want to do. 

Edited November 23, 2020 by bMiller031

[broncosfan_101]

5 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

For me it is the opposite - the attraction of the NFL is the fact that there is a salary cap, a minimum wage and a draft.

Sport in Europe - particularly soccer - has been utterly ruined by TV money - the richest clubs win everything and the entire season of football is utterly predictable - it really is boring in the extreme. A dozen teams around Europe will buy up all the best talent spending hundreds of millions in transfer fees (Man Utd had apparently agreed to pay £160million for an 18 year-old kid last summer before the deal fell through). Three years ago PSG paid out €180million for a 19 year-old - Killian Mbappe - a terrific footballer, but monopoly money. Tens of thousands of kids now take part in academies run by the clubs - some as young as 9 years-old - many taken from their homes in developing countries - and then cast aside after years, often without any real education.

In the NFL you can go from worst to first in the space of a season by drafting well, signing good FAs, managing the salary cap and having good coaching - and you can just as easily go the opposite direction. It is a system that ensures the richest team does not always dominate and that every team and every player has a chance - long may it continue.

Oh yeah sure, I’m not in favour of going to the European football model (though, as a United supporter, it does have its advantages ;). But I think there’s a way to modify the draft that doesn’t reward tanking. For instance, maybe the Gold Plan that’s been talked about as a solution in the NHL/NBA would actually make more sense in the NFL. Essentially, whoever wins the most games after they’re mathematically eliminated from playoff contention gets the first pick. Since I’m guessing most teams will be split between 0-2 wins, you could have point differential as a tiebreaker, except the best differential would get the better pick. Sort of a, ‘thanks for trying to be competitive, here’s a bonus.’

Or, one of my favourites, you could have a ‘draft pick draft’ before the season starts. The 32nd place team in 2020 gets first choice of any other team’s first round draft pick in the 2022 draft. So, one, it pushes back any reward from sucking for a full year. Two, it’s weighted towards benefitting bad teams, but not directly or substantially enough that teams will actively tank. 
 

Sorry for the sidebar. I hate incentivizing losing, so I think about this stuff quite a bit.

[Dbrog24]

2 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Oh yeah sure, I’m not in favour of going to the European football model (though, as a United supporter, it does have its advantages ;). But I think there’s a way to modify the draft that doesn’t reward tanking. For instance, maybe the Gold Plan that’s been talked about as a solution in the NHL/NBA would actually make more sense in the NFL. Essentially, whoever wins the most games after they’re mathematically eliminated from playoff contention gets the first pick. Since I’m guessing most teams will be split between 0-2 wins, you could have point differential as a tiebreaker, except the best differential would get the better pick. Sort of a, ‘thanks for trying to be competitive, here’s a bonus.’

Or, one of my favourites, you could have a ‘draft pick draft’ before the season starts. The 32nd place team in 2020 gets first choice of any other team’s first round draft pick in the 2022 draft. So, one, it pushes back any reward from sucking for a full year. Two, it’s weighted towards benefitting bad teams, but not directly or substantially enough that teams will actively tank. 
 

Sorry for the sidebar. I hate incentivizing losing, so I think about this stuff quite a bit.

I'm pretty partial to the way the NBA does it, especially with the revised %s where the worst 3 teams each only have a 14% chance of getting the 1st pick but obviously have quite a high chance of getting a top 3 or 4 pick. This 100% eliminates the "lose for Luck" or "tank for Tua" teams. The other two ways you mentioned would be very interesting though. I'm really for anything other than the current way the NFL does it...they are delusional whenever I hear these figureheads say "no teams tank in the NFL"

[broncofan48]

I do think organizations are OK with tanking and I see their rationale for it.  However I was happy with the win yesterday couldn’t help myself.

I don’t think it’s as easy to tank in the NFL as other sports though.  The guys are going to give their all on the field, if they don’t they risk injury.  Factor in the short career span I think any team tanking in the NFL has to be overtly obvious about it (Jets not firing Gase for example)

[germ-x]

In terms of the losing, I get it from a fans perspective that losing and getting better draft picks can be more valuable than winning a few games and missing the playoffs.

I have believed the same for years, had multiple posts on it last year when Denver did enough to miss the top 10.

However, a few months back I saw a video of Dante Scarneccia (long time Patriot OL coach for those who may not know) and he talked about how a team is built.  He basically said you have 5 true leaders and 5 losers on a roster and talent really doesn’t matter in being in either category (an average role player could be a top leader and one of the most talented players could be a loser) and everyone else falls in between.  Mitch Unrein commented on this basically saying that when you’re losing those players in between start gravitating toward the losers who are bringing the program down.  

Never thought of it that way,  but he’s probably right in that regard.

[1234567]

6 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

But the things that make him uncomfortable in Shurmur's system are traits that are required to be a good NFL QB, most notably presnap reads, pocket manipulation and being able to go through progressions.

I thought the kid played well in parts yesterday, especially an awful start. I will wait for the tape review to comment any more.

Yep, and that's really the rub. Lock is an athletic, west coast gunslinger vs a cerebral type QB in the PFM mold. And you get can away with that, BUT there is still a minimum level of proficiency that you have to have in those areas. The part I can't figure out yet is if his deficiencies in all three of those categories are beyond the threshold of being coachable. I think right now his lack of pre-snap ability is disproportionately hurting him because of such poor offensive line play. Pocket presence is also very teachable. The skill set that actually worries me is his struggle to progress through his reads. Most young QB's struggle initially with the speed of the game. But the final ceiling in that category comes down to brain processing power, and that isn't something that you can teach. What concerns me is that Lock hasn't shown any real discernable improvement in that area despite having 13 games under his belt now. I'd still give him the rest of this season and an actual offseason before I made any snap judgements. But yeah.. he's starting to find himself on some fairly shaky ground. 

[BroncosFan2010]

Looking at Josh Allen's progression and using it to hope Lock improves is pretty pie-in-the-sky. Allen has shown an improvement arc that comes around once every twenty years or so. Its incredibly rare for a QB to improve as much as he has. The fact he is a generational thrower may be why he was able to make this type of improvement. Lock has a good arm, Josh Allen has a truly rare one. 

[Joe_is_the_best]

I’ve been very critical of Shurmur, but he called an excellent game, especially in the run game.

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

improvement arc that comes around once every twenty years or so. Its incredibly rare for a QB to improve as much as he has

Can't disagree with your other points but Jared Goff had the same arc the year before after his awful 2016.

[AKRNA]

7 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Can't disagree with your other points but Jared Goff had the same arc the year before after his awful 2016.

From all reports Allen is incredibly competitive, sort of Elwayesque. He also has an incredible work ethic. Combine those two and you can see the result.

From his dismal results so far this year it's hard to imagine Drew has either quality. If he doesn't he hasn't got a chance at success in one of the most difficult positions in sports.

[The Helicopter]

Looking back on the 2018 draft...Chubb, Nelson, or Allen?