BDL 2020 Week 11 - Cuba Smugglers @ Oklahoma City EF5s

[Ragnarok]

BDL 2020 Week 11

Match: Cuba Smugglers @ Oklahoma City EF5s

Away Owner: @MD4L

Home Owner: @Blue

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Ragnarok]

Cuba 

Offense

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Dalvin Cook 
FB: Kyle Juszcyk 
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Justin Jefferson
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Elgton Jenkins 
😄 Ryan Jensen 
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Mekhi Becton 

WR: DJ Chark
RB: Jamaal Williams
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Marvin Jones 
WR: Denzel Mims
TE: Ian Thomas
TE: Adam Shaheen 
OL: Daryl Williams

Edge: Jerry Hughes 
DT: Derrick Nnadi 
DT: DaQuan Jones
Edge: Cam Jordan
MLB: Eric Kendricks 
SLB: Vince Williams 
RCB: Kenny Moore
NCB: Isaiah Oliver
FS: Tyrann Mathieu 
SS: Eric Rowe 
LCB: Jenoris Jenkins 

Edge: Matt Judon
INT: Mario Edwards
INT: Raheem Nunez-Roches
OLB: Alex Highsmith
WLB: Troy Dye
FS: Jimmie Ward
CB: Ugo Amadi
SS: Khari Willis

 

OKLAHOMA CITY

QB Patrick Mahomes

RB Mark Ingram

WR1 Allen Robinson

WR2 Brandin Cooks

TE1 Austin Hooper

TE2 Dalton Schultz

LT David Bakhtiari

LG Brian O’Neill

C Rodney Hudson

RG Kevin Zeitler

RT Morgan Moses

 

RB2 Latavius Murray

RB3 James White

TE3 Trey Burton

WR3 Randall Cobb

WR4 Larry Fitzgerald

OW Greg Ward

OL6 Jesse Davis

OL7 Mason Cole

 

LE Will Gholston

DT Stephon Tuitt

DT Akiem Hicks

RE Derek Barnett

LB Anthony Hitchens

LB Jarrad Davis

CB Tre’Davious White

CB Byron Jones

CB Michael Davis

FS Adrian Amos

SS Jordan Poyer

 

DE3 Kerry Hyder

DE4 Rasheem Green

DT3 Sheldon Richardson

DT4 Shamar Stephen

DL David Onyemata

LB3 TJ Edwards

CB4 Josh Jackson

S3 Jordan Fuller

[Ragnarok]

CUBA

Intro: This week we play Oklahoma City. They have made some transactions but their foundation is excellent. Patrick Mahomes, Allen Robinson, Tre’Davious White, and some other players are cornerstone talents so we will need to accommodate for the dynamic players they posses.

Offense 

Oklahoma has some excellent players in the secondary but they are susceptible to being beaten with a strong running game. In unordinary Cuba fashion, we’re going to double down on our power run and make it a staple of our offensive gameplan. Adding Kyle Juszcyk to the starting lineup gives Dalvin a lead blocker and going behind DeCastro and Becton is a play we think can yield enough success that we can run it frequently. This is not a deceptive approach; we think there is success to be had if Dalvin reaches the 2nd level and his breakaway ability in the open field could yield home run results. His carries will mix some toss plays and counters with DeCastro moving behind our left side to change up our run selections. We definitely will open up the offense with a lot of 3 WR sets and those plays open the inside zone against a soft box and a couple counters mixed to the right side with Jensen pulling behind DeCastro and Becton. We are going to try some 6 man OL with Becton moving to LT and Daryl Williams coming in with Trent Brown in the redzone to give us a massive wall that should help our RBs get into the end zone in the redzone and a couple 4th and inches opportunities against OKCs defense.

We rarely avoid being pass first but there are few secondaries with the potency of Oklahoma City. We are eager to see who Byron Jones matches up with because we feel comfortable targeting him a lot of times in this matchup. Jones is one of the top CBs because his coverage ability but he has 2 career interceptions. Thus, we have the guys who can convert if given enough opportunities and want to test this out against an elite secondary. Our script beyond targeting Byron Jones is establishing an offense presence based on Hi/Lo reads ranging in the middle of the field with occasional deep shots to Justin Jefferson. The dynamic rookie has earned a promotion to the number two receiver position and we’ll use him all over the field to create a connection with Watson. One of our favorite installments of a 21 base personnel is running twin sets with Jefferson remaining the slot receiver. Placing him and Julio on the same side should force a matchup that Poyer or Amos having to pick a player to focus on in coverage. If OKC keeps a two man under we’ll run with Dalvin, but if they adjust to more one man deep or cover 2, we can have Jefferson run crossing routes and beat the cover 2 in the middle of the field. Julio can work the low concepts and eventually take deep shots against coverages that have responsibility for one player. Conversely, should we face a major negative script we will abandon the heavy run approach and begin using 10 personnel and having a heavy target approach on the 3rd and 4th CBs for OKC. The Hi/Lo concept remains the same, but we will run more vertical routes that aim at attacking OKC with intermediate targets against their depth CBs and back shoulder fades in press coverage.

 

Defense

Patrick Mahomes presently a reality for the defense. What a strong performance against him represents is different than almost every active QB. We think he’s going to make plays with his dynamic talent, but the name of the game remains the same; get stops on 3rd down, force FGs in the redzone, & account for Allen Robinson with two people in every situation barring goal line & 3rd/4th and inches. Jenoris Jenkins has been given a heavy challenge every week and this week we’ll give him the task to shadow Robinson. His deep help will frequently change with Eric Rowe, Tyrann Mathieu, and Jimmie Ward alternating responsibility based on what packages OKC trots out. Likewise, Kenny Moore will have shadow responsibility with Brandin Cooks which should be a fun matchup.   We know Cooks still has blazing speed so there will be a fair share of 2 deep coverages and our CBs are primarily tasked with accounting for both receivers. We are not going to try innovative blitz approaches in this game; their objective is strictly coverage based in this game.

Tyrann Mathieu will move to the primary NCB replacing Jimmy Ward’s usual assignment. We think Fitzgerald is a guy Mathieu can handle one one on vertical routes and won’t shy away from letting Mathieu cover Randall Cobb in isolation opportunities. Eric Rowe would have some situations where he covers Austin Hooper if he flexed out wide or is isolated in some creative formations. Ward would again become the safety spot responsible for help on Robinson. Mathieu would then be able to roam the middle of the field, come down for help against the run, or help Kenny Moore against a vertical route from Brandin Cooks.

We are putting a lot of defensive responsibility on covering the receivers for Patrick Mahomes that we’re going to have to give up a light box against the running game. Latavius Murray and Mark Ingram are solid two down runners who can give us some problems. With Arik Armstead pass rush presence being gone we’ll play more fronts with Nnadi and Jones being together. Jordan and Hughes have had a lot of success this year and this matchup presents a quality group of tackles. As we face more passing situations, we’ll move Cam Jordan inside so Matt Judon and Alex Highsmith can get some pass rush opportunities. Doing this also allows us to get Jordan and Hughes on the same side and we’ll run a lot of two man stunts with Jordan playing inside but rushing from the edge. This is a tough offensive line to beat but there is enough talent that we can get some pressures and force Mahomes to make tough throws throughout the game. 

 

OKLAHOMA CITY

Offense (25/75 run/pass)

To attack Cuba’s linebackers and defensive backs, we’re primarily using outside zone runs to set up RPOs and play-action. This should draw the linebackers up close to the line and open up things deep for Patrick Mahomes.

In addition to our 12 personnel base set, we’ll be mixing in some 2 WR/2 TE/2 RB sets with Randall Cobb or Greg Ward lining up in the backfield next to Ingram and Mahomes out of the shotgun. This should force Cuba to mix and match personnel on the back end, hopefully bringing on one of their poor defensive backs that we can run all over with Ingram. Trey Burton will also get a few snaps at both tight and fullback, the latter for some extra beef in the run game.

We also want to roll out some 4 WR/1 TE sets to really squeeze the Cuba secondary. Fitzgerald and Cobb/Ward take the slots in this formation with Robinson and Cooks on the outside. We will also mix up the formation with trips and quads with pre-snap motion to further confuse coverage responsibilities in the secondary.

 

Defense

Here's our man blitz look with White on an island, rotating the S to the high post to cap deep routes, while providing support to the field side seam, leaving the weak seam vacant intentionally

Lots of Match coverage opposite of White in single WR sets, mixing in Cover 2, Press Man/Match opposite White, and Cover 3-4 on 3rd and long situations. Match the out/flat routes, disguise pressure, make Watson beat us throwing going to his left while actively containing him with our DE on his left and bringing pressure from his right. We aren't going to let them beat us vertically on the outside or in the RPO game. On early downs, we plan on utilizing a basic stack concept to take away the outside run and read option:

We are disguising our coverage and run fit responsibilities, showing either Off-Man or Cover 4 pre snap, while actually rotating to Cover 3, having the opposite side DE build the wall, loading up the middle with our interior DT, and accounting for Watson with either an overload blitz from our SS and a MLB spy, or allocating 2 defenders for Dalvin Cook and matching Watson’s speed and athleticism with our safety/MLB. The MLB is rotating on the snap to the slot to take away the RPO from #2 and fitting on the QB. We are giving up the hitch and slant on early downs opposite the RB, as if they go play-action, that’s Watson’s 3rd progression.

Simply put from a running perspective, we like our interior DL and are funneling the runs back inside, using our DE to set the edge opposite of pressure with the WLB in EDGE support, thus allowing us to send a lot of varied looks and pressure from a variety of fronts and alignments, while still maintaining gap and EDGE integrity.

[bcb1213]

I'm pretty much lost on what Cuba is doing with its safeties if I'm being honest 

[MD4L]

5 hours ago, bcb1213 said:

I'm pretty much lost on what Cuba is doing with its safeties if I'm being honest 

Base package

FS: Mathieu: Help against Robinson

SS: Rowe: Play underneath 

3 receiver sets

FS: Same 

SS: Same

3 receiver sets and we decide to let Mathieu take Oliver spot.

FS (Ward): Help against Robinson

SS: Play underneath and occasionally play for Cooks as deep help

2-3 WR sets when a TE splits outside

FS: Mathieu: Help against Robinson

SS (Ward): Play underneath or help against Cooks.

The big difference maker is Tyrann is our 4th CB so responsibility changes when he moves away from safety.

[bcb1213]

Got it. Though I think putting him one on one with Larry is probably the worst matchup on the field for him 

[MD4L]

1 hour ago, bcb1213 said:

Got it. Though I think putting him one on one with Larry is probably the worst matchup on the field for him 

I think Mathieu matches best with non deep threats. Fitzgerald and Cobb are obviously accomplished receivers but Mathieu should be able to limit YAC and both guys are the quick reads and average aDOT (Depth of Target) is below average to the common passing structure on a QB.

Long story short: Gladly will give up being mismatched on Fitzgerald because we can limit his YAC and his target share tends to be within a short distance (i.e. <10 yards). It’s better then Allen Robinson in any vicinity doing damage.

[bcb1213]

5 hours ago, MD4L said:

I think Mathieu matches best with non deep threats. Fitzgerald and Cobb are obviously accomplished receivers but Mathieu should be able to limit YAC and both guys are the quick reads and average aDOT (Depth of Target) is below average to the common passing structure on a QB.

Long story short: Gladly will give up being mismatched on Fitzgerald because we can limit his YAC and his target share tends to be within a short distance (i.e. <10 yards). It’s better then Allen Robinson in any vicinity doing damage.

You're just gonna lose every jump ball in that situation near a goal line is all.  That's half a foot of height 

[Ragnarok]

I think both teams have equally good write ups, but Cuba has a better weapons right now around Watson who is playing much better than he gets credit for.

[Jlash]

I don't necessarily agree that OKC is susceptible in the run game because that DL aside from Barnett are solid run stoppers, but I do agree it's their best bet to win this game because Cook is as good as it gets, and thankfully OKC geared a little more towards stopping the air assault than anything.

I like OKC's idea to attack the edges and challenge defenders with RPO's, but I don't know if his RB's are dynamic enough to be a major factor in that part of the game. The blitz concepts are also cool, as we all know I'm a fan of visual aid, but Watson is a premiere escape artist in this league and if those blitzes get picked up, it's going to be major problems for OKC with the bevy of weapons Cuba has. 

With game plan and a slightly deeper roster to me, I'm going with Cuba.

[MWil23]

Mahomes has lost more games this year than his entire career. I think we should trade him. 

[RuskieTitan]

I think Cuba ends up outscoring OKC.

[Jlash]

25 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Mahomes has lost more games this year than his entire career. I think we should trade him. 

Good luck. Every owner he goes to, quits. Nice knowing you Samson.

[rackcs]

Cuba going with a run-focused gameplan while OKC planned for more of an air attack does it for me and I think Cuba takes this one as they take advantage.

[MWil23]

This is a run fit and early down base defense, not a blitz guys. It shows the zone potential if it’s a pass, whereas the red arrows are gap fits.