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Who gets left out in the AFC?


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On 12/1/2020 at 4:12 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Winner of Colts vs Raiders decides this...

 

What a game that will be

If the Colts win then that probably does it for the Raiders, but I'd hardly say that game decides everything. If we assume Cleveland has one wild card spot locked up that still leaves two more for Indy/Ten, Miami, LV, and Baltimore, none of whom look likely to run the table.

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Your a genius the Browns have won as many games as Kansas city and Pittsburgh sense chubb came back.

They have better records then Buffalo

Miami

Las Vegas 

Baltimore 

You need to try out for Colin the coward

Show and Steven the idiot smiths Show 

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On 11/30/2020 at 7:06 AM, Tk3 said:

Since the Bills and the Titans both own the division tiebreakers, I think they have pretty close to punched their tickets

I know the Ravens are MASSIVELY disappointing at 6-4, but don't forget their remaining schedule

@Steelers, vs Cowboys, @Browns, vs Jags, vs Giants, @Bengals

They have what I expect to be 4 no-doubt wins, a 1 no-doubt loss (especially with all of the covid)

The Browns will obviously be a huge game for them.

But even if they lose that game, I think they go 10-6 fairly easily (and would still hold the tiebreaker over the Browns if necessary)

 

Right now I'll give the 3 wildcard slots to the Ravens, Browns, and the winner of Colts/Raiders week 14

I think the Dolphins are going to miss, and the loser of Colts/Raiders as well. If the Browns lose to the Ravens week 14, then they enter this conversation as well

Week 14 will be HUGE for this conversation

Right now if we beat New York times 2 games that gets us 11 wins no way no how Baltimore wins 5 games in a row

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6 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

Right now if we beat New York times 2 games that gets us 11 wins no way no how Baltimore wins 5 games in a row

I assume you are talking from a Browns perspective?

That post you quoted was from a week ago. I had you as the underdog against Ten, so having won that game puts you into a near lock

As for Baltimore, I would say they are probably 2 TD favorites against the Bengals, Jags, and Cowboys, and at least a 7 point favorite against the Giants at home. The odds of them winning all 4 of those games is probably higher than the odds of them losing even 1.

And Baltimore @ Cleveland is probably a push. I know Cleveland fans will find that disrespectful, but its how I feel.

The chances of them finishing at 11-5 are probably better than any wildcard team besides the Browns. The Browns beating the Titans was a gamechanger and puts them in a near-lock position

 

I still think Miami and Oakland are the two who are left out

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1 hour ago, Tk3 said:

I assume you are talking from a Browns perspective?

That post you quoted was from a week ago. I had you as the underdog against Ten, so having won that game puts you into a near lock

As for Baltimore, I would say they are probably 2 TD favorites against the Bengals, Jags, and Cowboys, and at least a 7 point favorite against the Giants at home. The odds of them winning all 4 of those games is probably higher than the odds of them losing even 1.

And Baltimore @ Cleveland is probably a push. I know Cleveland fans will find that disrespectful, but its how I feel.

The chances of them finishing at 11-5 are probably better than any wildcard team besides the Browns. The Browns beating the Titans was a gamechanger and puts them in a near-lock position

 

I still think Miami and Oakland are the two who are left out

Nah, it's not disrespectful. Baltimore hit a really rough patch but we all know what they're capable of. I'm just happy that the Browns are improving and not looking like the pushover/fraud that everyone has been spewing for some time now.

I predicted Cleveland at 9-7 before the season started and I'm one of the optimistic Browns fans, so this season has been awesome for me. 11-5 is well within reach (but not a sure bet obviously) and the possibility of 12-4 blows my mind.

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I don't trust the Raiders. Far too bipolar. We can beat the Browns, Chiefs and Saints then get destroyed by the Falcons and almost (we did) lose to the Jets. Our D is too crappy, Gruden is too predictable and the physical players we covet (Jacobs, Trent Brown, Abram) are constantly hurt. 

Not looking good for Vegas to say the least.

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1 hour ago, Tk3 said:

And Baltimore @ Cleveland is probably a push. I know Cleveland fans will find that disrespectful, but its how I feel.

Not at all. That matchup for us is BAD. Our awful secondary and LB corps vs. their struggling passing attack is likely just what the doctor ordered. Baker also struggles/has shown that he struggles consistently with pressure, and Baltimore does a good job of disguising defensive pressures against him, and Chubb and Hunt likely won't run against them at will either. The game being played in Cleveland may help, albeit December weather conditions on the Lake can be a push at points.

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1 hour ago, mtmmike said:

Did I say that 

Not a big fan of Baltimore no way they run the table and get 11 wins

Baltimore at best is a 9 win tean

Where are these losses coming from?

I agree Baltimore isn't what we thought they were going into the season

But that ending schedule......

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Right now, the bar for entry is 10-6. A team COULD potentially make it at 9-7 but a lot would have to go wrong for the others for that to happen. 

Starting from the bottom, here are their remaining schedules

------------------------------------------------------

Patriots (6-6): @Rams, @Dolphins, Bills, Jets

Ravens (6-5): Cowboys, @Browns, Jaguars, Giants, @Bengals

Raiders (7-5): Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos

Dolphins (8-4): @Chiefs, Patriots, @Raiders, @Bills 

Colts (8-4): @Raiders, Texans, @Steelers, Jaguars

Titans (8-4): @Jaguars, Lions, @Packers, @Texans

Browns (9-3): Ravens, @Giants, @Jets, Steelers

Bills (8-3): @49ers, Steelers, @Broncos, @Patriots, Dolphins

 

bolded is against teams currently in the playoff hunt.

 

The Patriots MUST win out. Three of their remaining games are against 8-win teams so that won't be easy by any means. If they do run the table, the most important game for them to keep an eye on will be Ravens @ Browns next week. If the Browns win that one, that will give the Pats the inside track for the #7 seed, as they would have head-to-head tiebreakers over the Ravens, Raiders and Dolphins, all of whom would be also vying for it. 

The Ravens would need to run the table just as much as the Pats because they're now 2 games behind the Browns, and lost to the Pats a couple of weeks ago. They're good enough to beat all of their remaining opponents, but also have looked shaky on offense as of late, so I could easily see them having a letdown against the Giants defense as well as the Browns. If they drop the Browns game, their chances would hinge on the Pats dropping  at least one of their remaining 4, while the Colts finish with the same record or worse, since that's the only h2h tiebreaker they currently hold against another potential wild card team. They do have the easiest remaining schedule of the bunch, but also one of the smallest margins for error.

The Raiders are the Raiders. They're the other most chaotic team in the league besides the Pats. No idea which version will emerge on any given Sunday, but they do pretty much need to run the table, because if they lose against either the Colts or Dolphins, their playoff chances are essentially nil, since they lost to New England and Buffalo earlier in the season.

The Dolphins are, in my opinion, likely to fade, just because they still have to play @KC and @BUF and I don't think they have the firepower to stay with either of those teams. They still very much have a shot to win the division, which hinges on Buffalo going 2-3 the rest of the way (certainly a possibility, given their remaining schedule), while the Dolphins win at least their two remaining division games. This is the team with the widest range of possible outcomes.

The Colts are in the driver's seat for the #6 spot, but they need to beat the Raiders next week to remain there. If they lose that game, they're in trouble because all their losses have been in-conference and they've still got the undefeated Steelers to deal with in week 16. A divisional title is still possible as well, but it would require some luck because the Titans would likely hold the tiebreaker by virtue of divisional record. That week 1 loss @ Jacksonville could definitely come back to haunt them. 

The Browns did themselves a huge favor yesterday because now they can afford to drop both their remaining division games and still make it at 11-5. They just need to take care of business against the two New York teams. Barring a meltdown against a lesser team, they're in the driver's seat for the 5th seed.

The Titans, despite identical records, have a cushion in the division against the Colts, and their last remaining 'difficult' game is non-conference. They need to take care of business against the three relative pushovers left on their schedule to secure the division. But if they drop that Texans game, things become a lot dicier.

The Bills are intriguing because they're the team most likely to beat the Steelers, but if they lose that game, their last two divisional matchups could very well mean the difference between them being the #3 seed and the #6 or #7. If the Patriots stay hot, either of those final two games could be for the division. In a seemingly unlikely scenario where the Bills, Pats and Dolphins all finish 10-6, the Patriots would take the division crown, the Bills would be relegated to the 7th seed, and the Dolphins would be left holding the bag. 

 

Prediction:

1. Chiefs (15-1)

2. Steelers (15-1)

3. Bills (11-5)

4. Titans (11-5)

5. Browns (11-5)

6. Colts (10-6)

7. Ravens (10-6)

-------------------------

8. Patriots (9-7)

9. Dolphins (9-7)

10. Raiders (8-8)

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52 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I don't trust the Raiders. Far too bipolar. We can beat the Browns, Chiefs and Saints then get destroyed by the Falcons and almost (we did) lose to the Jets. Our D is too crappy, Gruden is too predictable and the physical players we covet (Jacobs, Trent Brown, Abram) are constantly hurt. 

Not looking good for Vegas to say the least.

Yes but yesterday's miracle win over the Jets is the kind of magic that can get a struggling team going. Their season was basically over yesterday, then POOF the Raiders are right back in the mix. 

Fins-Raiders basically begin their playoffs when they meet in the 2nd-to-last game on Dec 26th which is a S-A-T-U-R-DAY NIGHT. Whatever team loses will prolly not make the playoffs and sit home mid-January listening to the Bay City Rollers instead. 

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I'm sticking with the Raiders get in. We find a way to play to the competition of our opponent and our defense isn't good or even decent. But our offense is very good. We'll be left out if Josh Jacobs doesn't play this weekend. End of the day, if you're the Raiders and want to play in the playoffs, you HAVE to win against the Colts. I like us over the Dolphins as well as I feel we're a year ahead of them in the rebuild and have the better QB right now... Though I am in no way kidding myself and convinced the Dolphins couldn't also run us off our home field. 

If we had anymore 10 AM East cost games left on the schedule I would say that seals us missing the playoffs. 3 out of our last 4 being at home gives us an edge I don't think many are thinking about. Only having to go to Denver and getting Indy and Miami at home could be just enough of an edge for us to sneak in..

The way this Raider team has looked the past 2 weeks, 2-2 may look generous, but I'm not just going to forget the Raider team that has beat the Chiefs, Saints, and Browns... We're good enough to run the table. That definitely gets us in. 3-1 over the last 4 gets us in as well IMO. 2-2 leaves us as one of the last 2 out. 

Edited by Mr Raider
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