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2021 draft talk


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On 1/15/2021 at 6:06 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Since when is Surtain this prolific prospect?

Chase isn’t replace Tate. He’s replacing AJ Green, who played substantial snaps and received substantial targets. 

Also, if you think drafting Chase at 5 is a mistake, you’re wrong.

Green got more targets and snaps than his production justified. Partly based on his rep and partly because Higgins was a rookie. Tee should be getting most of those snaps and targets in 2021. 

On 1/15/2021 at 7:47 PM, BengalsBite said:

i don’t think you’re arguing that tate is better than chase. i don’t see how you don’t think adding chase would be a massive upgrade to the offense (we should ignore sewell because i think we all agree he’s the best pick). adding parsons would not be an upgrade (for year 1 at least) over bynes. phillips played well elite in a few games. i get how that would be a bigger need than WR if we don’t tag or re-sign wj3. drafting for need is not how you should view the draft. it’s a horrible strategy. chase/smith/pitts are clearly better prospects than surtain is imo. 

i could understand if you thought surtain was a better prospect but that’s not your argument. your argument is solely based on need. 

earlier you said that drafting bpa would mean that we would draft a qb if we had the top pick or something along those lines. i think you’re misunderstanding what we say when we say that we should draft bpa. drafting bpa is drafting the best player available who can come onto our team and have a role. not someone who is the best player but will come in and sit behind someone already established. at 5, you have to take someone who will have a role to start the year and a WR here would easily be taking up a large role from day 1. it is a need, maybe not our biggest need tho, obviously depending on what we do in free agency

My argument is that WR isn't close to a first round need. We can sign a midtier vet to replace what we got from Green last year.  Surtain is an elite CB prospect who has lived up to his hype entering college. He's played well against good opposition and has good physical traits. His father was a probowl CB and it looks like in his case the apple didn't fall far from the tree. In other words, he is indeed worthy of pick 5. He's likely to have a better rookie season than last year's top CB and may be the best CB on the Bengals from day one. 

2 hours ago, theJ said:

I agree there'd be a role for another WR on this team.  In today's NFL, it's easy to spread targets to 3 great WR's if you have them.  Especially when you don't have a TE that can catch well, or don't plan on throwing the RB's much.  Sounds a lot like the Bengals.

I could definitely see a Bengals offense with Higgins, Boyd and Chase having three 1000 yard receivers.  That's massive value if you ask me.

On the flip side, i can't see this offense having 3 1000 yard receivers by rolling out one of the guys already on the roster as the 3.  Or anyone in FA.

The object isn't to have 3 1000 yard receivers, it's to have a good offense. That means being able to both run and pass, threaten the whole field and have players who can step up when faced with adversity. Joe Burrow gets us a long way toward that with or without Chase. We need to upgrade the O-line and TE position more than the WR position. Sample is ok as a TE2 but not starting material. Neither was Uzomah before his injury. Hunter Henry would be a nice FA signing for the Bengals. Maybe Kyle Rudolph as a 1 or 2 year stopgap if he's cut for cap reasons. OJ Howard or David Njoku should be available too. It's not as if upgrades are hard to find. 

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1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

The object isn't to have 3 1000 yard receivers, it's to have a good offense. That means being able to both run and pass, threaten the whole field and have players who can step up when faced with adversity. Joe Burrow gets us a long way toward that with or without Chase. We need to upgrade the O-line and TE position more than the WR position. Sample is ok as a TE2 but not starting material. Neither was Uzomah before his injury. Hunter Henry would be a nice FA signing for the Bengals. Maybe Kyle Rudolph as a 1 or 2 year stopgap if he's cut for cap reasons. OJ Howard or David Njoku should be available too. It's not as if upgrades are hard to find. 

Sure, but you don't always have the luxury of taking the perfect player for the perfect offense.  

21 yo Gronk would be better for this offense, but if that guy isn't there at #5, you take the guy who most improves the team.  If that's a WR, so be it.

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I think we're generally on the same page though.  I don't really care who the player is.  I want the guy that most improves the team.  Idk anything about Chase, or any prospect really.  I'm good with whoever.

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1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

The object isn't to have 3 1000 yard receivers, it's to have a good offense. That means being able to both run and pass, threaten the whole field and have players who can step up when faced with adversity.

I'm not sure there's really a blueprint to having a good offense.  You can have an elite passing game, and virtually no running game and be a good offense.  I mean, look at the Saints before Alvin Kamara got there.

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9 hours ago, sparky151 said:

My argument is that WR isn't close to a first round need.

ah so need > bpa is your argument

9 hours ago, sparky151 said:

The object isn't to have 3 1000 yard receivers, it's to have a good offense. That means being able to both run and pass,

the rams offense in 2018, when zac taylor was there had 3 really good WRs. kupp got hurt but he was on pace for 1,000 receiving yards which would have made for 3 1,000 yard WRs. that was a good offense they had that year. 

@ buffalo beating the ravens with 1 real rushing attempt in the first half in a divisional playoff game (the second was a QB scramble, not a designed run) 

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20 hours ago, theJ said:

I think we're generally on the same page though.  I don't really care who the player is.  I want the guy that most improves the team.  Idk anything about Chase, or any prospect really.  I'm good with whoever.

Yes, agreed, we should be looking for most value added. Since we already have a couple of pretty good receivers it would take an alltime WR prospect to add the most value. There's nobody like that in this draft.

12 hours ago, BengalsBite said:

ah so need > bpa is your argument

the rams offense in 2018, when zac taylor was there had 3 really good WRs. kupp got hurt but he was on pace for 1,000 receiving yards which would have made for 3 1,000 yard WRs. that was a good offense they had that year. 

@ buffalo beating the ravens with 1 real rushing attempt in the first half in a divisional playoff game (the second was a QB scramble, not a designed run) 

Need should certainly be considered in free agency and drafting. Teams with obvious weaknesses will find them ruthlessly attacked week after week. The easiest way to upgrade the team is to replace the stiffs with average players. Replacing average players with studs is also good but harder to pull off. The Rams in 2018 did indeed have a good offense. They had consistency in their O-line with a very good LT they found somewhere and the ability to run or pass.

3 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

Offenses win championships these days.  Just look what the Packers did to the Rams.  The top three scoring offenses in the league are still alive, plus the 6th best (KC, who would have guessed that?)

I agree we should concentrate on offense but that's mainly to protect Burrow and get his career off to a good start. Fixing the Bengals defense is probably a multi-year process which won't include Anarumo. 

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18 hours ago, BengalsBite said:

lol at aj green. (this is on targets only he says)

I still love AJ, and he should be inducted into the Ring of Honor whenever the Bengals decide to do one. 

But man, he's either washed up or phoned in the 2020 season.  

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36 minutes ago, theJ said:

But man, he's either washed up or phoned in the 2020 season. 

Honestly, the 2nd would be worse than the first.  Either way, time to move on from the $18 million salary.  Replace his salary and Geno's with two FA offensive linemen to shore up the oline and open up the draft.  Even if we did crazy and awesome something like land Joe Thuney and Taylor Moton in FA, I'd still draft Sewell at 5 if he was there.

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i couldn’t figure out how to post pictures on here but i found something interesting about where good teams spend their money. these two pictures are really relevant for our lawson vs wj3 debate this offseason. historically (since 2013 which is as far back as over the cap goes) paying high dollar at CB generally isn’t the best option if you want to be a contender in the league. 

*the charts are spending rank by a team in a specific position group vs where they finished that season (SB winner is 32 and the worst team is 1). 

** i have these charts for every position if you would like to see them

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22 minutes ago, BengalsBite said:

i couldn’t figure out how to post pictures on here but i found something interesting about where good teams spend their money. these two pictures are really relevant for our lawson vs wj3 debate this offseason. historically (since 2013 which is as far back as over the cap goes) paying high dollar at CB generally isn’t the best option if you want to be a contender in the league. 

*the charts are spending rank by a team in a specific position group vs where they finished that season (SB winner is 32 and the worst team is 1). 

** i have these charts for every position if you would like to see them

That's interesting, but here's the thing.  The top three offenses in scoring are still alive (GB, TB, Buffalo) along with the sixth best scoring team (KC).  With the teams spending like that, they are simply following the Colts blueprint of spending on the offense, along with DEs and a high end safety.

But the Colts won only one Super Bowl, and reached only one other.  Granted, they had the misfortune of being relevant at the same time the Patriots dynasty was being established. 

 

Throw in the fact that the Bengals never had one of those high priced free agent CBs play a down this season.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, but I don't buy the causation correlation here.  A solid secondary is important to have in a passing age where many teams employ three or more receivers in every play, whether they are WRs or TEs or RBs.  It is also true that a great DL can mitigate average CB play by forcing the opposition to essentially play like Andy Dalton... 2 seconds and the ball is out, and a 1-2 read only play.  

 

I still don't see why we can't have BOTH.  As much as fans want to see the team bring in two OL, Mike Brown has yet to change his stance on paying guards.  maybe they find an OT, but te top ones usually stay where they are across the league.  I won't be shocked if Moton is tagged and Williams gets a deal before FA.

 

Because the lack of shear numbers of quality free agent OL, I have long argued that we should be keeping the secondary together, keep Lawson, and try to grab another DE in free agency.  That allows the team to spend multiple picks early and often on the OL.  Getting Sewell would be huge.  So would trading back, getting darrisaw, plus a somewhat high second rounder to get an OG, while still getting a high DE pick in the second.  Lots of ways to make it happen, but the end result is all the matters.

Draft scenarios

Sewell-Brown

Darrisaw-Brown-Basham or either Pitt DE

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1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

Throw in the fact that the Bengals never had one of those high priced free agent CBs play a down this season.

WJ3 had a 9.6m cap number this season and he played. we had the 13th and 15th highest cap numbers at CB this year with waynes and wj3 respectively. also mackenzie alexander had a 3.9m cap number. 

i get that this chart isn’t the end all be all. it’s just one stat and one stat doesn’t tell the whole story. 

some thoughts as to why the chart played out like that might be that another position on defense (most notably edge) might impact the game more than CB does. CBs generally only impact the passing game where’s an edge impacts both the running game and passing game. so maybe it’s better to use that money that you would spend on the 2nd proven CB on a proven edge guy instead. 

the main thing i’m getting from this chart is that trying to pay for a second top tier CB is unnecessary and that money should be spent elsewhere. 

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here’s the safety chart which essentially says you need to have good safety play or else you’re not gonna be a very good team. 

what i get from this chart and the CB one is that having good safety play and 1 really good corner is really all you need for the secondary or else it just becomes too much investment in that area 

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1 hour ago, BengalsBite said:

WJ3 had a 9.6m cap number this season and he played. we had the 13th and 15th highest cap numbers at CB this year with waynes and wj3 respectively. also mackenzie alexander had a 3.9m cap number. 

i get that this chart isn’t the end all be all. it’s just one stat and one stat doesn’t tell the whole story. 

some thoughts as to why the chart played out like that might be that another position on defense (most notably edge) might impact the game more than CB does. CBs generally only impact the passing game where’s an edge impacts both the running game and passing game. so maybe it’s better to use that money that you would spend on the 2nd proven CB on a proven edge guy instead. 

the main thing i’m getting from this chart is that trying to pay for a second top tier CB is unnecessary and that money should be spent elsewhere. 

They have the money to do both, provided they pay them as such.  We can keep Alexander, Jackson and Lawson and still have money left for another edge by cutting dead weight.

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