Week 12 - Rams vs 49ers

[jrry32]

58 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here is the thing, non-elite or borderline elite QBs are going to have stretches like Goff has had. He's a fairly average to above average QB and that is perfectly fine, especially when he has as good of a OC as he does. You can win with QBs like that. Having competent QB play is something a lot of teams cannot say. So when debating Goff or Cousins or Stafford, it is a moot point. They are pretty much on the same level or one may be better than the other two, but not a huge difference. Those types of QBs will frustrate you at times but you just have to lower your expectations. Goff is good enough to still out play top QBs on any given day. His floor is going to be a lot lower than the elites and that's the difference. What Miami and SF did was take away the play action and play sticky coverage on the WRs. Honestly, a lot of non-mobile QBs are going to struggle with that. 

What the Rams and other teams in similar situations (SF included) are going to have to decide is if it is worth paying a non-elite QB that much money when you may be able to find replacements on a similar level for much cheaper? The problem is though, are you positive you can find a cheaper QB either in the draft or by trade that will give you what Goff gives you? Again, there is A LOT of bad QB play going on and it is proven Goff can take you far and you can win a SB with him. Granted, as the talent of the team dips, the QB play has to be stronger so Goff is going to have to play good ball in the playoffs to reach the SB again. 

Dating back to mid-2018, I think there is a large enough sample to know what kind of QB Goff is. Can he improve? Maybe, but while he is young, he does have a lot of playing experience and I question just how much better he can get. 

I recommend taking a look at other franchise pocket passers (of the past decade or two). They're not like mobile QBs. They hit their primes in their late 20's and often improve into their 30's. Why? Because their game is built around being smarter than the defense. The more you see, the smarter you get.

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, jrry32 said:

I recommend taking a look at other franchise pocket passers (of the past decade or two). They're not like mobile QBs. They hit their primes in their late 20's and often improve into their 30's. Why? Because their game is built around being smarter than the defense. The more you see, the smarter you get.

Definitely possible, but I will need to see it to believe it. And again, I think McVay hurts his development a bit. He's giving Goff these easy reads where little processing is needed and will he ever fully develop with a coach like this? I'm not saying having McVay is a bad thing or anything as that man is clearly really good and is able to draw up a lot of open receivers. Just think that kind of hurts Goff when teams are able to take away his first read. 

Will be interesting to see in five years if any non-mobile QB is in the upper echelon of QBs or not.

[jrry32]

Here's a post I made on another Rams forum. I think the point is worth considering:

I don't think anybody here disagrees that Goff stunk up the joint against SF and Miami. Those defenses had his number. With all three of those games in recent memory, I think people might be falling prone to recency bias. Here are Goff's numbers outside of those three games:
7-1
198/273
72.5%
2270 passing yards
8.3 YPA
13 passing TDs
5 Ints
105.4 Passer Rating

Here are his numbers against those two teams:
0-3
73/130
56.2%
751 passing yards
5.8 YPA
3 passing TDs
5 Ints
64.6 Passer Rating

I recognize that you can't just remove games from his performance, but my point is that until we get to the end of the season, we won't know if SF and Miami just had his number or if he actually is regressing. I get that we can't afford him turning into a turnover-prone mess when he has bad games, but it is what it is. We'll have to hope he outgrows that with experience. That all said, if he finishes strong, I say all of the handwringing right now ends up being much ado about nothing. The one team remaining that scares me is New England. McVay better be ready for Belichick.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Before somebody claims it's because we didn't play other good defenses, here are some of the other defenses we played:

Tampa Bay: 13th in PPG Allowed and 7th in YPG Allowed

Chicago: 8th in PPG Allowed and 13th in YPG Allowed

Washington: 7th in PPG Allowed and 4th in YPG Allowed

Giants: 9th in PPG Allowed and 10th in YPG Allowed

Philadelphia: 16th in PPG Allowed and 9th in YPG Allowed

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Definitely possible, but I will need to see it to believe it. And again, I think McVay hurts his development a bit. He's giving Goff these easy reads where little processing is needed and will he ever fully develop with a coach like this? I'm not saying having McVay is a bad thing or anything as that man is clearly really good and is able to draw up a lot of open receivers. Just think that kind of hurts Goff when teams are able to take away his first read. 

Will be interesting to see in five years if any non-mobile QB is in the upper echelon of QBs or not.

I don't think Goff's issue is processing or going away from the first read. He has a few issues. The biggest is that pressure rattles him. Beyond that, I think he presses too much for big plays. He needs to learn to let a drive go. The great QBs know how to pick their spots. They'll take a punt over a turnover. When Jared has off days, it is often because he is refusing to just give up on plays. He either holds onto the ball too long or he forces a pass into coverage when it's just not there. Finally, like any other young QB, he gets fooled sometimes (Miami and New England are particularly strong examples of that). I think the hero ball and getting fooled get better with experience. The pressure issue is going to be with him for his career. He'll have to learn how to better handle it.

But he goes away from his first read often in this offense. I don't think he really has that problem. Yes, he sometimes forces the ball to a guy like Kupp when he shouldn't. But that's a thing all QBs do, and that issue tends to improve with age and experience.

[J-ALL-DAY]

7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I don't think Goff's issue is processing or going away from the first read. He has a few issues. The biggest is that pressure rattles him. Beyond that, I think he presses too much for big plays. He needs to learn to let a drive go. The great QBs know how to pick their spots. They'll take a punt over a turnover. When Jared has off days, it is often because he is refusing to just give up on plays. He either holds onto the ball too long or he forces a pass into coverage when it's just not there. Finally, like any other young QB, he gets fooled sometimes (Miami and New England are particularly strong examples of that). I think the hero ball and getting fooled get better with experience. The pressure issue is going to be with him for his career. He'll have to learn how to better handle it.

But he goes away from his first read often in this offense. I don't think he really has that problem. Yes, he sometimes forces the ball to a guy like Kupp when he shouldn't. But that's a thing all QBs do, and that issue tends to improve with age and experience.

See, I think processing is part of that problem you just described. There was a play where he tried to force it to Woods when Warner was all over him when he got out of his first read for no reason and #81 (?) was wide open. Then on the INT to Sherman, there was no place to go with that ball and he still just threw it up to Higbee who was blanketed. On the INT he threw to Kinlaw. Let's say he doesn't get hit by Givens, there was still no reason to go to Kupp there. He had two on him and an inaccurate ball likely gets picked there or tipped in the air. Now, that play was due to pressure and he obviously struggles there. Maybe it is just him not accepting to play another down and just eat it. That problem isn't all that uncommon for young QBs. 

Either way, even if he doesn't improve much, he's going to be a solid QB. I don't see the Rams moving on from him anytime soon. McVay will still lead good offensive units as long as he is coaching. 

[rocky_rams]

27 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I don't think Goff's issue is processing or going away from the first read. He has a few issues. The biggest is that pressure rattles him. Beyond that, I think he presses too much for big plays. He needs to learn to let a drive go. The great QBs know how to pick their spots. They'll take a punt over a turnover. When Jared has off days, it is often because he is refusing to just give up on plays. He either holds onto the ball too long or he forces a pass into coverage when it's just not there. Finally, like any other young QB, he gets fooled sometimes (Miami and New England are particularly strong examples of that). I think the hero ball and getting fooled get better with experience. The pressure issue is going to be with him for his career. He'll have to learn how to better handle it.

But he goes away from his first read often in this offense. I don't think he really has that problem. Yes, he sometimes forces the ball to a guy like Kupp when he shouldn't. But that's a thing all QBs do, and that issue tends to improve with age and experience.

His biggest issue is his footwork and timing routes when pressured. Furthermore, his issue is remaining not calm and panicking in the face of pressure 

Edited December 1, 2020 by rocky_rams

[StLunatic88]

24 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

He's a number one overall  pick in the NFL draft. He was the highest paid quarterback at one point . He has shown the glimpses of being an MVP candidate. There's no reason we shouldn't expect him to play at an All-Pro level when he's shown he has the ability to and is being compensated as such.

This is so obviously what is sticking in your craw. Ive said it time and time again, its a horrible take, thats not how QB contracts work in todays NFL. He just so happened to be the next guy up so that's what he gets paid. If we wouldnt have given it to him someone else would have. And if we would have waited to pay him the price only goes up. And since we have been going for it, without 1st round picks (and extra 1st rounders at that) we dont have the ammunition to get a new QB. And you wouldnt have saved much if you said we could get a different Free Agent, Teddy is getting $21m per year, and cant even get his offense in range for anything less than a 50-60 yard FG at the end of the game. Are Brady and Rivers worth $25m for what they are putting on the field? Not even close. Heck even the most average backups are getting $4-8m per year. You arent saving on a QB unles its a draft pick, thats just facts. So yes, it absolutely DOES matter what the rest of the league is doing, especially when you want to keep harping on what Goff is making, That immediately brings everyone else into the discussion, but you choose to ignore it because it doesnt fit your argument.

 

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

See, I think processing is part of that problem you just described. There was a play where he tried to force it to Woods when Warner was all over him when he got out of his first read for no reason and #81 (?) was wide open. Then on the INT to Sherman, there was no place to go with that ball and he still just threw it up to Higbee who was blanketed. On the INT he threw to Kinlaw. Let's say he doesn't get hit by Givens, there was still no reason to go to Kupp there. He had two on him and an inaccurate ball likely gets picked there or tipped in the air. Now, that play was due to pressure and he obviously struggles there. Maybe it is just him not accepting to play another down and just eat it. That problem isn't all that uncommon for young QBs. 

Either way, even if he doesn't improve much, he's going to be a solid QB. I don't see the Rams moving on from him anytime soon. McVay will still lead good offensive units as long as he is coaching. 

I don't know what happened on the Sherman INT. He threw it between two Rams. I'm not sure if somebody ran the wrong route or if Goff simply overthrew Higbee. My best guess looking at the All-22 was a combination of Goff getting fooled and Higbee running the wrong route. Sherman carried the WR up the field and then split off to come over the top of Higbee. Goff clearly expected Sherman to stick with the WR. But I think Higbee was supposed to run a deeper corner. Instead, he cut pretty hard towards the sideline.

On the Warner/Woods play, I think what he did made sense. You had Woods on a LB. It's a mismatch. Woods needs to create separation there. Jennings called that out. Goff threw to the opposite side of Woods expecting him to create distance from Warner. I agree that Everett was wide open for a first. Goff came off the first read and went to Woods. He liked that option. Didn't even look to Everett. Frankly, he might have had the first but for Warner grabbing Woods as he tried to create separation and Woods not fighting hard enough to create separation (it was thrown where it should be). Here's a still of what Goff saw:

He threw it expecting Woods to explode off his inside foot towards the green grass. Instead, Woods settled and didn't fight hard to create separation. Goff even threw it low to keep Woods from getting blown up by Ward.

[BStanRamFan]

9 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

This is so obviously what is sticking in your craw. Ive said it time and time again, its a horrible take, thats not how QB contracts work in todays NFL. He just so happened to be the next guy up so that's what he gets paid. If we wouldnt have given it to him someone else would have. And if we would have waited to pay him the price only goes up. And since we have been going for it, without 1st round picks (and extra 1st rounders at that) we dont have the ammunition to get a new QB. And you wouldnt have saved much if you said we could get a different Free Agent, Teddy is getting $21m per year, and cant even get his offense in range for anything less than a 50-60 yard FG at the end of the game. Are Brady and Rivers worth $25m for what they are putting on the field? Not even close. Heck even the most average backups are getting $4-8m per year. You arent saving on a QB unles its a draft pick, thats just facts. So yes, it absolutely DOES matter what the rest of the league is doing, especially when you want to keep harping on what Goff is making, That immediately brings everyone else into the discussion, but you choose to ignore it because it doesnt fit your argument.

 

It was the first time I brought up his contract and draft position, so its not something I'm harping on.

Using someone else sucking to make us feel better about Goff sucking doesn't negate the fact that he's sucking. It's just distracting from the issue and trying to make us feel good about a troubling situation. I choose not to get distracted by the trivial and focus on the issue at hand.

I'm not calling for him to be benched or traded. I'm not asking for us to draft a mid round prospect (although I'm willing to bet McVay could turn them into a starter). I'm simply stating, when Goff plays poorly, we lose despite being in the game from our defense. And when he plays well, but still turns the ball over (TB), we can still potentially lose. He needs to limit turnovers. Let's hope MIA and SF are isolated incidents and not something other defenses can learn from. 

[stl4life07]

Let’s keep it plain and simple. The Rams are (0-2) against the Niners and (7-2) against everyone else and one of those losses were a bad DPI call away from the Rams winning because Goff yes Goff lead 4 straight td drives to give the Rams the lead then had to watch from the sidelines as  Bills marched down the field to score the game winning td. So unless we somehow play the Niners or Dolphins in the playoffs at some point again the Rams have just as a strong of a chance than any team not name KC who is clearly the best team and it’s not close. Like Pittsburgh is undefeated but they have shown they can be had they just played bad teams that couldn’t finish the job and beat them. 

[Flounch]

It's funny to read that Goff is a young QB making young QB mistake like a rookie, and it's like a normal situation. 

But when you're playing your 5th year as a QB in the NFL, are you still considered like a young QB ? 

[StLunatic88]

18 minutes ago, Flounch said:

But when you're playing your 5th year as a QB in the NFL, are you still considered like a young QB ? 

Well he did just turn 26, and Passers like him, usually dont hit their true prime till that 26-28 range. I think that is what is being referenced. Plus his rookie year was a complete waste

[JonStark]

3 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

And I should add, as good as Shanahan and McVay are, I believe they have hurt Jimmy's and Goff's development a bit. They are kind of control freaks and they pretty much tell those two to who to go with the ball and their processing when option one is taken away isn't as sharp. I don't even know if I made any sense here, but I hope you guys get what I mean LOL.

You did, and I agree completely. Just don't say it too much or you'll have pitchforks coming after you. 

[JonStark]

18 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Well he did just turn 26, and Passers like him, usually dont hit their true prime till that 26-28 range. I think that is what is being referenced. Plus his rookie year was a complete waste

I'm getting burned out with having this discussion weekly, so I'm just going to keep liking your and @jrry32's posts to show my support. 

[jrry32]

17 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Well he did just turn 26, and Passers like him, usually dont hit their true prime till that 26-28 range. I think that is what is being referenced. Plus his rookie year was a complete waste

Peyton Manning - 27

Drew Brees - 29 or 30

Philip Rivers - 27

Tom Brady - 30

Matt Ryan - 27

Matt Stafford - 27

Ben Roethlisberger - 27

Kurt Warner - 28

Alex Smith - 27

It's very common for pocket passers to hit their stride and become much more consistent between 27 and 30 years old. Jared Goff just turned 26 a couple months ago.