New GM and HC candidates?

[Karnage84]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The way the NFL seems to work is that if someone is going to turn things around, its relatively quick.  The Rams, Cardinals, Titans, etc seemed to turn around quickly.  I think if the Bengals get Burrow back healthy and add some O lineman, they will be good again quickly.  So I would say it depends on your trust in the roster.  If you think we are 5ish pieces off plus a competent coach, we should be decent next year and continue to improve.  If you think our roster is trash, then it might take 3 years but you want to see growth each year.  I would likely give any coach three years before assessing them unless there are major flags or issues and no results/improvement (see Patricia).  

What's your position on the roster? Do you think we're 5 players away from being competitive (in contention for division title/playoff spot)? Or do you think the roster is trash?

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

What's your position on the roster? Do you think we're 5 players away from being competitive (in contention for division title/playoff spot)? Or do you think the roster is trash?

I think with a good draft, a couple solid FA signings, competent coaching, with Matt Stafford we can compete for the playoffs next year.  I think with a couple good drafts, competent coaching and Matt Stafford we can compete compete.  I think we really need a couple DL starters, a couple LBs and maybe a RT from being competitive.  I know the roster is fluid and there are players we will need to replace/resign but I dont think they are difference makers outside of KG.  

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think with a good draft, a couple solid FA signings, competent coaching, with Matt Stafford we can compete for the playoffs next year.  I think with a couple good drafts, competent coaching and Matt Stafford we can compete compete.  I think we really need a couple DL starters, a couple LBs and maybe a RT from being competitive.  I know the roster is fluid and there are players we will need to replace/resign but I dont think they are difference makers outside of KG.  

I can't say that I disagree with you on that. When I work through different mock draft scenarios on TDN that's pretty much the approach that I take. 

I have advocated for Stafford to be traded and it's entirely possible that he might be. That has purely been on the basis that I want to see Stafford succeed one way or another. If the front office comes in and has to overhaul the entire defense then Stafford should be moved as well. If they feel that they can add a couple pieces in the front 7 and the secondary will bounce back, then they should keep him as our best shot at winning. 

I don't conflate talent with on-field success. You obviously hope the two match up but someone could be very talented and their production doesn't meet their ability, whether it's scheme, lack of coaching/development, effort levels, injuries, etc. 

Tracy Walker, Jeff Okudah, Amani Oruwariye are all talented players that could thrive under a new coach and scheme. Flowers and Hand should be able operate under a new scheme. Collins should be well enough as a stop-gap at LB. 

[Karnage84]

@Sllim Pickens I think you could have a good perspective on this question:

If we were to hire Robert Saleh he would bring in his version of the Seattle cover 3 scheme. If we were to bring in Matt Eberflus, he'd be bringing in his version of the Cover 2. Out of the LB's currently on the roster, who do you think could fit in either of those schemes? Is there a player that could thrive in either scheme that has been more disappointing this year/career wise? Ex. Jarrad Davis, JRM, Killebrew, etc.

[diehardlionfan]

Year one will be a right off. Most NFL teams will have cap issues for next year unless they come up with some bright ideas. From what I’ve read next years cap may be 170 - 176 million.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

If that’s the case the Lions are already over the cap.

https://overthecap.com/calculator/detroit-lions/

Unless something changes I don’t see how they keep Golladay or any of their free agents. It’s not like they will be able to move contracts because it will be a challenge felt by every team. Teams with lots of draft capital will be in better positions.

Renegotiating contracts via extensions etc. will be difficult in this environment as well. 

To your question......I usually give one year.........let’s figure out what GM and coach are doing. The second year I want to see weaknesses from the roster being addressed. Example: next year (2021) will be watching their draft, free agency and see how talent acquisition goes. Is the team improved next year. Are problems reduced  or enhanced. Now next year is shaping up for a mulligan because of issues beyond everyone’s control but I will still watch and take notes.

If this plays out as I feel it will then 2022 is our first real opportunity to take a look at team performance objectively. I would want to see significant improvement in some, not all areas. Of course they may hit a home run in a position group or there may be marginal improvement across the board. It really depends on their strategic vision and tactical decisions. I wouldn’t expect a huge improvement in the win department.

Year 3 I would expect to be playoff bound. However at this point I’m still giving a mulligan for year one so improvement is expected.

Year 4 becomes the year that if they don’t make the playoffs then it’s time for change. They’ve been given a mulligan year so they will have gotten one more year than I would normally give.

Variables,

1. if incompetence rears its ugly head then a coaching change should be made at the teams earliest opportunity. Coaching stability is a goal but stability doesn’t take precedent over performance. For example if the team goes 0-16 next year it would likely be obvious a mistake was made. Recognize it, take action, move on. 

2. The mulligan year is only if next year materializes as I think it might. If salary cap solutions are implemented that reduce the financial impact then forget the mulligan.

From my perspective personally and for the organization, this GM search is the most important in Lions history. I hope that Mr. Wood is up to the tasks he faces in the future as well. 

 

 

 

 

[y*so*blu]

...I know a guy who Peyton Manning just raved about. 

[Karnage84]

10 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

Year one will be a right off. Most NFL teams will have cap issues for next year unless they come up with some bright ideas. From what I’ve read next years cap may be 170 - 176 million.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

If that’s the case the Lions are already over the cap.

https://overthecap.com/calculator/detroit-lions/

Unless something changes I don’t see how they keep Golladay or any of their free agents. It’s not like they will be able to move contracts because it will be a challenge felt by every team. Teams with lots of draft capital will be in better positions.

Renegotiating contracts via extensions etc. will be difficult in this environment as well. 

To your question......I usually give one year.........let’s figure out what GM and coach are doing. The second year I want to see weaknesses from the roster being addressed. Example: next year (2021) will be watching their draft, free agency and see how talent acquisition goes. Is the team improved next year. Are problems reduced  or enhanced. Now next year is shaping up for a mulligan because of issues beyond everyone’s control but I will still watch and take notes.

If this plays out as I feel it will then 2022 is our first real opportunity to take a look at team performance objectively. I would want to see significant improvement in some, not all areas. Of course they may hit a home run in a position group or there may be marginal improvement across the board. It really depends on their strategic vision and tactical decisions. I wouldn’t expect a huge improvement in the win department.

Year 3 I would expect to be playoff bound. However at this point I’m still giving a mulligan for year one so improvement is expected.

Year 4 becomes the year that if they don’t make the playoffs then it’s time for change. They’ve been given a mulligan year so they will have gotten one more year than I would normally give.

Variables,

1. if incompetence rears its ugly head then a coaching change should be made at the teams earliest opportunity. Coaching stability is a goal but stability doesn’t take precedent over performance. For example if the team goes 0-16 next year it would likely be obvious a mistake was made. Recognize it, take action, move on. 

2. The mulligan year is only if next year materializes as I think it might. If salary cap solutions are implemented that reduce the financial impact then forget the mulligan.

From my perspective personally and for the organization, this GM search is the most important in Lions history. I hope that Mr. Wood is up to the tasks he faces in the future as well. 

 

 

 

 

I don't know if 2021 is going to be as terrible contract wise for the Lions as it will be for some other teams. Playing around on OverTheCap:

- Restructure Matthew Stafford (Opens up $12M in 2021; increases cap hit/dead cap in 2023 from $3M to $9M)

- Restructure Trey Flowers (Opens up $8M in 2021; cut/trade candidate in 2023)

- Cut Desmond Trufant (New cap of $6M, dead cap of $6M)

- Cut Nick Williams (New cap of $4M, dead cap of $1M)

- Cut Danny Shelton (New cap of $4m, dead cap of $1.25M)

- Cut Christian Jones (New cap of $2M +/-, dead cap of $2M +/-)

- Cut Joe Dahl (New cap of $2.8M, dead cap of $250k)

Opens up $41M in cap space + $13M rolled over from 2020 = $54M in cap space in 2021

 

It's not to say that this is the exact plan a new GM should follow but there is a pathway towards opening up cap space in the short term without major long term consequences. You would obviously only take this approach if you wanted to keep Stafford for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't know if 2021 is going to be as terrible contract wise for the Lions as it will be for some other teams. Playing around on OverTheCap:

- Restructure Matthew Stafford (Opens up $12M in 2021; increases cap hit/dead cap in 2023 from $3M to $9M)

- Restructure Trey Flowers (Opens up $8M in 2021; cut/trade candidate in 2023)

- Cut Desmond Trufant (New cap of $6M, dead cap of $6M)

- Cut Nick Williams (New cap of $4M, dead cap of $1M)

- Cut Danny Shelton (New cap of $4m, dead cap of $1.25M)

- Cut Christian Jones (New cap of $2M +/-, dead cap of $2M +/-)

- Cut Joe Dahl (New cap of $2.8M, dead cap of $250k)

Opens up $41M in cap space + $13M rolled over from 2020 = $54M in cap space in 2021

 

It's not to say that this is the exact plan a new GM should follow but there is a pathway towards opening up cap space in the short term without major long term consequences. You would obviously only take this approach if you wanted to keep Stafford for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

 

 

I saw a lot more you could cut to gain space. 

Jesse James would save 2.2M

Kerryon would save 1.5M

Chase Daniel would save 2.3M

[diehardlionfan]

26 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't know if 2021 is going to be as terrible contract wise for the Lions as it will be for some other teams. Playing around on OverTheCap:

- Restructure Matthew Stafford (Opens up $12M in 2021; increases cap hit/dead cap in 2023 from $3M to $9M)

- Restructure Trey Flowers (Opens up $8M in 2021; cut/trade candidate in 2023)

- Cut Desmond Trufant (New cap of $6M, dead cap of $6M)

- Cut Nick Williams (New cap of $4M, dead cap of $1M)

- Cut Danny Shelton (New cap of $4m, dead cap of $1.25M)

- Cut Christian Jones (New cap of $2M +/-, dead cap of $2M +/-)

- Cut Joe Dahl (New cap of $2.8M, dead cap of $250k)

Opens up $41M in cap space + $13M rolled over from 2020 = $54M in cap space in 2021

 

It's not to say that this is the exact plan a new GM should follow but there is a pathway towards opening up cap space in the short term without major long term consequences. You would obviously only take this approach if you wanted to keep Stafford for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

 

 

The Saints and others 👀 I’m sure you’re right about cuts but that’s only 1/2 the problem. They still have to fill the roster, deal with their own free agents etc.

How much dead cap would the Lions have in 2022?  
 

Edited December 4, 2020 by diehardlionfan

[Karnage84]

7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I saw a lot more you could cut to gain space. 

Jesse James would save 2.2M

Kerryon would save 1.5M

Chase Daniel would save 2.3M

I probably wouldn't cut KJ unless he was getting beat out in camp. I think James is $4.2M of dead cap while Daniel is $3M of dead cap. There are other guys like Tavai, Geronimo Allison, etc. that will also open up a couple bucks. 

[Karnage84]

3 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m sure you’re right about cuts but that’s only 1/2 the problem. They still have to fill the roster, deal with their own free agents etc.

How much dead cap would the Lions have in 2022? 

According to OTC, we're sitting at $82M in cap space in 2022 before all of those moves and $88M with all of those moves. 

I don't know how sophisticated of a tool OTC is but it seems to be the best one out there for schleps like us. I can't really see how the dead cap numbers impacts the future cap numbers when making some of these moves. So it's possible the calculator has its faults. 

[Karnage84]

14 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

The Saints and others 👀 I’m sure you’re right about cuts but that’s only 1/2 the problem. They still have to fill the roster, deal with their own free agents etc.

How much dead cap would the Lions have in 2022?  
 

If I go on a tangent and include all of those guys plus a few other guys like Justin Coleman, Jahlani Tavai, Geronimo Allison we're looking at about $75M in overall cap space with 28 players under contract. 

We'd need to add about 35 guys between FA, draft and UDFA (53 man roster + 10 man PS). 

 

[Karnage84]

Interesting video on Saleh's change in the 49ers scheme in 2019 from straight Seattle cover 3 and implementing the wide 9.

 

[Sllim Pickens]

45 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I probably wouldn't cut KJ unless he was getting beat out in camp. I think James is $4.2M of dead cap while Daniel is $3M of dead cap. There are other guys like Tavai, Geronimo Allison, etc. that will also open up a couple bucks. 

James has 4M in dead cap but still opens 2.3M which will likely provide more value than him at 6.5M

KJ I am not overly sold on cutting but his value seems to be declining and he hasn't produced much.  You can get similar production from a late round or FA RB.  

[Karnage84]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

James has 4M in dead cap but still opens 2.3M which will likely provide more value than him at 6.5M

KJ I am not overly sold on cutting but his value seems to be declining and he hasn't produced much.  You can get similar production from a late round or FA RB.  

Outside of Hock there isn't really anyone at TE on the roster. Neither James or Nauta have worked out. Bryant hasn't proven anything sitting on IR. Unfortuantely it's a position that we're going to have to address yet again, likely in FA and the draft. 

I'd rather hold onto KJ and see if someone like McDaniel's or Lafleur (assuming Saleh is HC and either of these guys follows as OC) can get a bit more out of him. The Shanahan's seem to be able to get production out of anybody at RB. KJ has shown he can be effective when he's healthy.