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2021 NBA Draft Thread


NYRaider

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After seeing more of the top 5 guys my NBA comparisons:

• Cade Cunningham: Brandon Roy

• Evan Mobley: Chris Bosh

• Jonathan Kuminga: Pascal Siakam 

• Jalen Green: Zach LaVine

• Jalen Suggs: Deron Williams

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It's gonna be interesting to see how high Kuminga goes, because if we're talking top 3, that all but shows there is really 0 downside to going the G-league route because not only did he not get the exposure, but his play has not been all that good down there (shooting 39%, <25% from 3) as opposed to Green who has been pretty damn good on same team. NBA drafts on tools (see: Anthony Edwards) so it won't be surprising at all if Kuminga's stock is unchanged. 

The next step will be determining whether guys can actually raise their stock in the G league. Think a recruit like Okongwu. Fringe 5 start out of HS who was a late 1st in preseason mocks, but dominates in college and shoots up to being the #6. Is there a path like that in G-League? TBD.

 

 

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8 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

It's gonna be interesting to see how high Kuminga goes, because if we're talking top 3, that all but shows there is really 0 downside to going the G-league route because not only did he not get the exposure, but his play has not been all that good down there (shooting 39%, <25% from 3) as opposed to Green who has been pretty damn good on same team. NBA drafts on tools (see: Anthony Edwards) so it won't be surprising at all if Kuminga's stock is unchanged. 

The next step will be determining whether guys can actually raise their stock in the G league. Think a recruit like Okongwu. Fringe 5 start out of HS who was a late 1st in preseason mocks, but dominates in college and shoots up to being the #6. Is there a path like that in G-League? TBD.

Kuminga's numbers are skewed because he has had a few bad shooting nights and it's such a small sample size due to him only playing in 13 games. 

 

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4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Kuminga's numbers are skewed because he has had a few bad shooting nights and it's such a small sample size due to him only playing in 13 games. 

 

I'm looking at his game log, I don't see any major outliers. 9 of 13 games he shot under 45%, and the 3 point shooting has been consistently bad, 7 nights under 30%. Take just his last 4 games and the numbers would be dreadful, so we can't just call it a slow start either. 

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Jonathan-Kuminga/GameLogs/127826

 

Yes 13 is not much, and all the more reason I'd assume scouts will largely ignore his GL play and still peg him around #3 prospect (whether he goes 3rd will depend on who is picking).

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22 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Yes 13 is not much, and all the more reason I'd assume scouts will largely ignore his GL play and still peg him around #3 prospect (whether he goes 3rd will depend on who is picking).

GL is also way tougher competition than college and he also reclassified and will be the youngest player in the draft, IIRC. 

Agreed, there's not a huge gap between Cade, Mobley, Kuminga, Green, and Suggs so it will come down to team need/preference. Although I'd personally probably lean towards one of Cade, Kuminga, or Green. 

I love Suggs and watching him play brings me back to the Deron Williams era in Utah. But I'm not sure that he has the potential to be the #1 guy on a real contender. In modern NBA history the only smaller guard to lead a team to a title is Steph and he's an outlier. I also really like Mobley and he reminds me of Bosh but teams that have invested high picks on big men haven't really received great return on investment. Embiid is a baller but it's unlikely that Philly wins a title anytime soon and as great as Davis is he wasn't able to propel New Orleans into a contender. 

Over the last 5 years there have been 8 bigs taken in the top 5 and none of them have really helped elevate the team that drafted them. Hell even this year it looks like the Warriors made a huge mistake taking Wiseman over Ball. 

2015: KAT (#1), Okafor (#3), Porzingis (#4) 

2016: Bender (#4) 

2018: Ayton (#1), Bagley (#2), Jackson (#4)

2020: Wiseman (#2) 

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2 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

Like last year having the #3 pick is a great place to be.  

eh i wouldnt say that. you have to choose between 3 talents most likely in Kuminga, Suggs and Jalen Green. Thats a tough decision. If one of them goes 2 then yeah I would agree. 1,2 and pick 5 are the spots to be. 

Edited by Texansfan713
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3 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

eh i wouldnt say that. you have to choose between 3 talents most likely in Kuminga, Suggs and Jalen Green. Thats a tough decision. If one of them goes 2 then yeah I would agree. 1,2 and pick 5 are the spots to be. 

It's better to have more options then less options though. 

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My top 5 rank so far, Im starting to love Jalen Green over Mobley so they are 2a and 2b for me.  

 

1. PG Cade Cunningham:  Best player in the draft.  Reminds me of Luka Donic. 

2a. PF/C Evan Mobley:  His defensive potential is very good, and he can be a mismatch nightmare on offense with his ball handling skills and passing.

2b. SG Jalen Green:  He playing much tougher competition than Cunningham and Mobley.  Could be an elite scorer in the league especially if his jump shot improves. 

4.  PG Jalen Suggs:  I like the Deron Williams comparison another poster made.  He reminds me of him, the Jazz version.  I think he will be a natural leader for a franchise. 

5. SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga: Another youngster who has played tougher competition than Cunningham and Mobley. He could be a star if his jump shot develop.  He is the biggest boom or bust out of the top 5 prospects IMO. 

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3 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

My top 5 rank so far, Im starting to love Jalen Green over Mobley so they are 2a and 2b for me.  

1. PG Cade Cunningham:  Best player in the draft.  Reminds me of Luka Donic. 

2a. PF/C Evan Mobley:  His defensive potential is very good, and he can be a mismatch nightmare on offense with his ball handling skills and passing.

2b. SG Jalen Green:  He playing much tougher competition than Cunningham and Mobley.  Could be an elite scorer in the league especially if his jump shot improves. 

4.  PG Jalen Suggs:  I like the Deron Williams comparison another poster made.  He reminds me of him, the Jazz version.  I think he will be a natural leader for a franchise. 

5. SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga: Another youngster who has played tougher competition than Cunningham and Mobley. He could be a star if his jump shot develop.  He is the biggest boom or bust out of the top 5 prospects IMO. 

Nice post and I agree with your assessments. Even though Suggs and Mobley may be better prospects than Kuminga and Green, as a franchise I'd probably take a swing on the potential of Green/Kuminga over Suggs/Mobley. A big, long, athletic wing that has the potential to be a #1 scorer is more valuable than a really good PG or C.

Edited by NYRaider
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4 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

2b. SG Jalen Green:  He playing much tougher competition than Cunningham and Mobley.  Could be an elite scorer in the league especially if his jump shot improves. 

When I watch Green play I see a Zach LaVine clone. LaVine was an okay shooter coming into the league but has really improved over his career. It sucks that he's on a bad team in Chicago because he has been incredible this year averaging 29/5/5 on 52% FG | 43% 3FG | 86% FT. 

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The 2022 draft class should have some interesting prospects at the top as well. 

Some of the top prospects and early comparisons for me: 

Chet Holmgren, FC: Kristapas Porzingis 

Jaden Hardy, CG: Jamal Murray 

Adrian Griffin, GF: Jaylen Brown

Patrick Baldwin: Michael Porter Jr

Paolo Banchero: Chris Webber 

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On 3/7/2021 at 2:05 PM, NYRaider said:

After seeing more of the top 5 guys my NBA comparisons:

• Cade Cunningham: Brandon Roy

• Evan Mobley: Chris Bosh

• Jonathan Kuminga: Pascal Siakam 

• Jalen Green: Zach LaVine

• Jalen Suggs: Deron Williams

I keep telling myself I'm going to watch more C-hoops and a little G-League to see these guys and it keeps not happening.

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