2021 NBA Draft Thread

[NYRaider]

Just now, beekay414 said:

You literally have posts calling him SloMo and then posting highlights dragging him lol

That was more so to tease @Sllim Pickens for his comments on Sexton being better or comparable to Brad Beal.

I've been consistent with my Cade/Tatum comparison and have him #2 on my board behind Green. 

[NYRaider]

One last thing on the Cade/Green debate:

• To me Cade's demeanor on the floor and in interviews reminds me a lot of guys like Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons, and Karl Anthony-Towns. Guys who were obviously great prospects and have had pretty good careers but I just don't view him as a guy that has that undeniable ability to want to be the best player in the world. 

• Based on the comments we've heard about Green from guys who have been around some of the best players ever, he seems to have that "IT" factor and desire to be the best that very few players possess. Another thing that gives me confidence in Green is the fact that Anthony Edwards who was more developed physically, probably pretty comparable athletically, but not nearly as skilled offensively really started to come on strong as the game slowed down for him. Post ASB he averaged like 25 ppg on good efficiency numbers and I think Green is clearly a better player coming into the league.  

[Kirill]

Bradley Beal is lowkey trash. Uninspiring defender and always has health issues going on. Westbrook is tailor made to elevate his game he’s probably actually on the decline right now. 

[brownie man]

7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I think Green is clearly a better player coming into the league.  

Over Anthony Edwards?

nahhhh

Edwards is the truth that kid is going to be a superstar just watch. 
 

now Cade vs Green it depends what skill set your looking for they’re really different players. 
 

if you was a pure 2 guard go Green I wouldn’t be mad at you 

anything else go Cade 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, brownie man said:

Over Anthony Edwards?

nahhhh

Edwards is the truth that kid is going to be a superstar just watch.

Hindsight is 20-20. Coming out of Georgia Edwards shot 40% FG, 27% 3FG, and had a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio. He played better after the All-Star break but on the season overall he was still pretty inefficient. 41% FG, 33% 3FG, almost a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, 13.9 PER (111th), 52% TSP (169th), and had a -2.6 BPM (156th). There were only 22 players in the league that had a worse BPM than Edwards last season. His efficiency numbers mirror Dion Waiters when he was a rookie he just played more minutes and shot the ball more. That's why I feel good about Green, he's clearly better than Edwards and even he started to play better as the year went on.

I don't think you could find a player in the history of the league that was as inefficient as Edwards on a bad team and then went on to become a superstar. 

Obviously it's a small sample size with Green but everyone that played against him or saw him in the bubble said that he's the truth. He was playing against grown men on a make shift team of HS kids and washed NBA veterans against NBA talent and was feasting on guys with good efficiency numbers. 

 

[kyle21121]

Prospect fatigue is very real and luckily enough I’ve been put in a position to not really think about Cade too much and based on experience the guy you hear about being the guy for the past 8 months is usually the guy. Not saying he is definitely going to be the best player in the draft but he’s probably the best bet. 
 

I’ve really only thought about Green, Suggs and Mobley with a bit of dips into Kuminga and Barnes. 
 

I’m actually on Mobley now. I’ve also soured on Kuminga a bit and Barnes would be my outside the box pick at 4. Mobley, Green, Suggs and Barnes are how I have 2-5 ranked as of now. It’s been a lot of fun and subject to change. 
 

Also Beal may be overrated but he’s definitely the best version of this flawed star 2 and to compare anyone like Sexton to him is a bit disrespectful at this point. 

[Texansfan713]

edwards would have gone 4th or 5th in this draft if he was in it.

[Kirill]

6 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

Prospect fatigue is very real and luckily enough I’ve been put in a position to not really think about Cade too much and based on experience the guy you hear about being the guy for the past 8 months is usually the guy. Not saying he is definitely going to be the best player in the draft but he’s probably the best bet. 
 

I’ve really only thought about Green, Suggs and Mobley with a bit of dips into Kuminga and Barnes. 
 

I’m actually on Mobley now. I’ve also soured on Kuminga a bit and Barnes would be my outside the box pick at 4. Mobley, Green, Suggs and Barnes are how I have 2-5 ranked as of now. It’s been a lot of fun and subject to change. 
 

Also Beal may be overrated but he’s definitely the best version of this flawed star 2 and to compare anyone like Sexton to him is a bit disrespectful at this point. 

I don’t understand prospect fatigue with Cade. I watched his first game and he looked head and shoulders above the rest of them boys. It was like LeBron in high school. Then the next game I saw of his he hit a game winner.

people say he’s not athletic, I disagree. He’s athletic like harden is. He has elite acceleration/deceleration and burst combined with ball control and elite dribble moves. He’s going to have no problems doing the same things with NBA spacing.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Kirill

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

I’m actually on Mobley now. I’ve also soured on Kuminga a bit and Barnes would be my outside the box pick at 4. Mobley, Green, Suggs and Barnes are how I have 2-5 ranked as of now. It’s been a lot of fun and subject to change. 

Also Beal may be overrated but he’s definitely the best version of this flawed star 2 and to compare anyone like Sexton to him is a bit disrespectful at this point. 

I was listening to a draft podcast and one anonymous GM said Kuminga is the type of prospect that if you draft him you might get fired but if you pass on him you might get fired as well. Because if he pans out he has such a high ceiling but if he doesn't he also has such a low floor. Where he ends up is going to have a huge impact on how his career pans out, imo. I think Scottie Barnes is a good fit in Orlando and Kuminga is a good fit in Oklahoma City. 

I can see the appeal with Mobley, IIRC he has the lowest foul rate for a top big prospect since AD. His ability to protect the rim without fouling while also having the mobility to switch onto smaller players defensively is definitely appealing. He needs to get stronger and continue to add range to his jumper but he should be a good NBA player. 

[Kirill]

47 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I was listening to a draft podcast and one anonymous GM said Kuminga is the type of prospect that if you draft him you might get fired but if you pass on him you might get fired as well. Because if he pans out he has such a high ceiling but if he doesn't he also has such a low floor. Where he ends up is going to have a huge impact on how his career pans out, imo. I think Scottie Barnes is a good fit in Orlando and Kuminga is a good fit in Oklahoma City. 

I can see the appeal with Mobley, IIRC he has the lowest foul rate for a top big prospect since AD. His ability to protect the rim without fouling while also having the mobility to switch onto smaller players defensively is definitely appealing. He needs to get stronger and continue to add range to his jumper but he should be a good NBA player. 

Barnes is a hella good fit in OKC, Kuminga is not.

I say that because Barnes playmaking talent and size fits in perfectly with our positionless offense. We were thriving with Al Horford doing some playmaking then had to shut him down to tank.

I’m back on the Barnes train, anyone else who could be available at 6 is definitely worse. Certain Barnes will be gone by Magic at the latest shoot maybe earlier.

 

 

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, Kirill said:

I don’t understand prospect fatigue with Cade. I watched his first game and he looked head and shoulders above the rest of them boys. It was like LeBron in high school. Then the next game I saw of his he hit a game winner.

people say he’s not athletic, I disagree. He’s athletic like harden is. He has elite acceleration/deceleration and burst combined with ball control and elite dribble moves. He’s going to have no problems doing the same things with NBA spacing.

The media has pushed Cade is the best prospect in the draft down everyone's throats the entire year. Comparing him as a prospect to LeBron is disrespectful, LeBron is probably the greatest prospect in the history of the draft. Most people have Cade #1 but the gap between Cade, Green, and Mobley isn't that big and I could see some teams actually valuing Green/Mobley more because of their athletic traits and long-term potential. 

When looking at his synergy stats from last season there are a few things that cause some concern:

• He ranked in the 42nd percentile in transition, which is typically a very good indicator of overall athleticism. 

• In transition he was the ball handler 70% of the time and scored on 44% of those possessions while turning the ball over on 31%. 

• As a pick-n-roll ball handler he ranked in the 62nd percentile which is okay but shot only 38% on those attempts. 

• Overall he was very good in isolation but his isolation numbers are a little weird. In isolation situations where he drove left he ranked in the 94th percentile, shooting 57% in those situations, with a 14.3 TO%. In isolation situations where he drove right he ranked in the 17th percentile, shooting 20% in those situations, with a 20.5 TO%. 

• In the half court on jump shots he ranked in the 66th percentile shooting 36% on those attempts, on runners/floaters he ranked in the 24th percentile shooting 27.3% on those attempts, around the rim he ranked in the 82nd percentile shooting 62.1% on those attempts, and on post ups he ranked in the 76th percentile shooting 56% on those attempts. 

• His half court shooting distribution was 71% jumpers/runners, 19% shots at the rim, and 10% post ups. 

• In transition he had a 1:1 assist/to ratio and in the half court he had an 0.8:1 assist/to ratio. 

• He only had 11 FGA off screens, 9 FGA off hand offs, and 9 FGA off cuts. 

• In catch and shoot situations he was 16/34 when guarded and 9/23 when unguarded. 

• As a pick-n-roll ball handler when he passed the ball he ranked in the 44th percentile. 

• On jump shots inside 17 feet he shot 26% (16th percentile), on jump shots between 17/3P line he shot 38% (56th percentile), and on 3P jump shots he shot 40% (80th percentile)

• 2/3 of his offense came in transition, in isolation, or as the pick-n-roll ball handler so he really didn't show much in terms of being able to play off the ball. 

• In 101 isolation posssessions he only passed the ball 12 times.  

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, Kirill said:

Barnes is a hella good fit in OKC, Kuminga is not.

I say that because Barnes playmaking talent and size fits in perfectly with our positionless offense. We were thriving with Al Horford doing some playmaking then had to shut him down to tank.

I’m back on the Barnes train, anyone else who could be available at 6 is definitely worse. Certain Barnes will be gone by Magic at the latest shoot maybe earlier.

I think Barnes fits better with Orlando because they have such a clutter of young talent and are trying to build an identity. Within that clutter of players they don't really have a true PG and Barnes is a good playmaker that can play with the ball in his hands. He may not have the crazy upside of Kuminga but they need a high energy, high end role player like him. 

I like Kuminga's fit in OKC because his upside is crazy high and the Thunder have some of the best player development in the league. The Thunder are also in a position to be patient with him as he develops and why collect as many picks as you have if you're not going to swing for the fences? We just saw Presti do it last year with Poku who was extremely raw and got bodied by Kuminga in the G-League. 

[NYRaider]

With Cade I think that his game will definitely benefit from NBA spacing and having better players/shooters around him. But the 3 numbers that stick out to me were that he only scored 44% of the time and turned it over 31% of the time in transition as the ball handler, 71% of his FGA in the half court were jumpers/runners, and that he only passed the ball 12 times in 101 isolation opportunities. 

I know @Kirill just compared his athleticism to James Harden, but Harden's numbers at Arizona State were much different than Cade's. 

He ranked in the 77th percentile in transition (as the ball handler he scored on 51% of his attempts and turned it over 21% of the time), in the half court 40% of his shot attempts came at the rim (twice as many as Cade's), and in the pick-n-roll when he passed the ball he ranked in the 78th percentile. 

And in isolation Harden drove left/right at pretty much an identical rate with nearly identical scoring numbers although he turned the ball over slightly more frequently when going right. 

[NYRaider]

11 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

Prospect fatigue is very real and luckily enough I’ve been put in a position to not really think about Cade too much and based on experience the guy you hear about being the guy for the past 8 months is usually the guy. Not saying he is definitely going to be the best player in the draft but he’s probably the best bet. 

ESPN also typically has a guy that they choose as the #1 pick very early on in the college basketball season and jam it down everyone's throats non-stop the entire year to increase viewership. I like Cade but I also think that Luka's success this year as a 6'8" primary ball handler was one of the reasons that they wanted to push that narrative so hard. 

On the other end of the spectrum if they were pushing Jalen Green as the #1 guy in the class all year it wouldn't have helped them in anyway because the G-League only played 15 games and had minimal interest from casual viewers. 

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

edwards would have gone 4th or 5th in this draft if he was in it.

Yeah I don't think there's anyone that would've rated him over Cunningham, Mobley, Green, or Suggs. He would've been in the next tier with Kuminga and Barnes. Last years draft was viewed as one of the worst draft classes in NBA history and this years is one of the best/deepest we've seen in a while.