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2021 NBA Draft Thread


NYRaider

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7 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

edwards would have gone 4th or 5th in this draft if he was in it.

Looking at the rookie stats from last season I think it was a fair assessment to say that it was one of the worst classes in a while. 

4/14 of the guys selected in the lottery averaged 10+ ppg: Edwards (on terrible efficiency), Ball, Haliburton, and Wiseman (only played half the season). 

Only 4 other rookies averaged 10+ ppg but all did it inefficiently: Bey, Quickley, Anthony, and Maledon. 

And outside of the top 5 picks, Haliburton was the only lottery pick that didn't struggle last year. Williams/Okoro didn't score a ton but they flashed some defensive versatility and they were raw prospects coming into the draft. 

Okongu averaged 4.6 ppg (64% FG) in 12 mpg, Hayes averaged 6.8 ppg (35% FG) in 26 mpg, Toppin averaged 4.1 ppg (50% FG) in 11 mpg, Deni Avdija averaged averaged 6.3 ppg (41% FG) in 23 mpg, Smith averaged 2.0 ppg (44% FG) in 5.8 mpg, Vassell averaged 5.5 ppg (40% FG) in 17 mpg, Lewis averaged 6.4 ppg (38% FG) in 16 mpg, and Nesmith averaged 4.7 ppg (43% FG) in 14 mpg. 

The only two rookies that were in positive BPM players that got consistent minutes were LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton. 

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11 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

Also Beal may be overrated but he’s definitely the best version of this flawed star 2 and to compare anyone like Sexton to him is a bit disrespectful at this point. 

Agreed. If you look at anyone's player rankings, he's considered a top 15 player in the league by everyone. Is he a #1 scoring option on a championship team? It depends. But the fact that he is one of only 6 players in modern NBA history to average 30+ in consecutive seasons while maintaining his efficiency numbers is impressive. 

I also think that guys like @Sllim Pickens don't look at it very objectively. Basketball is a team sport and no teams make deep runs in the playoffs without other great players around their primary scorer. Anthony Davis played at an MVP level on both ends of the floor and it didn't translate to winning in New Orleans, they only made the playoffs twice in seven seasons. 

For his career Devin Booker has been a negative DBPM player every season and is actually a negative BPM overall through 6 seasons. Brad Beal was a +4.6 OBPM/-1.7 DBPM (+2.9 BPM) this year averaging 31.5 ppg on 48% FG. Devin Booker was a +1.4 OBPM/-1.5 DBPM (-0.1 BPM) averaging 25.6 ppg on 48% FG. 

The Suns hadn't even come close to sniffing the playoffs despite having other young talented players around Booker like Ayton and Bridges. Both of those guys have come into their own this season and adding CP3 completely changed their entire team. The Suns are 2 wins away from an NBA championship with Booker as their #1 option who's a worse scorer than Beal and defends at the same level (worse overall for their careers). But Beal could never do the same thing and Sexton is a more valuable piece to add? 

Edited by NYRaider
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13 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Obviously it's a small sample size with Green but everyone that played against him or saw him in the bubble said that he's the truth. He was playing against grown men on a make shift team of HS kids and washed NBA veterans against NBA talent and was feasting on guys with good efficiency numbers. 

 

I’ll take Edward’s over Green 

it’ll be interesting to see how their careers Pan out 

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39 minutes ago, brownie man said:

I’ll take Edward’s over Green 

it’ll be interesting to see how their careers Pan out 

Edwards is extremely streaky, he had his moments, especially post ASB. But the majority of his best performances came in blow out losses. 

On the season he scored 20+ in 36 games and was held under 20 in their other 36 games, an even 50/50 split. 

So for half of their games he averaged 26 ppg on 47% FG/38% 3FG and the other half of their games he averaged 12 ppg on 33% FG and 26% 3FG, that's the definition of streaky. 

In the games he scored 20+ they were 10-26 and when he was held under 20 points they were 13-23, so his scoring didn't really make much of an impact. 

ETA: Edwards was also extremely streaky in college. In 32 games at Georgia he had 13 20+ point performances and 19 games where he was held under 20. In those 13 games he averaged 27 points on 50% FG/43% 3FG and in the other 19 games he averaged 13.5 points on 30% FG/17% 3FG. 

So his numbers were virtually identical in college and the NBA. He has been able to score when he can hit the 3 ball at a crazy clip and super inefficient when he can't. In his 20+ point performances at Georgia he hit the 3.8 3's per game at a 43% clip and in his non 20 point performances he hit 1.1 3's per game at a 17% clip. Last year as a rookie in his 20+ point performances he hit 3.1 3's per game at a 38% clip and in his non 20+ point performances he hit 1.5 3's per game at a 26% clip.

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56 minutes ago, brownie man said:

I’ll take Edward’s over Green 

it’ll be interesting to see how their careers Pan out 

as prospects i wouldnt.

in a down year in college basketball (19-20) his numbers at georgia as a freshman werent even that great especially shooting wise. georgia wasnt even going to go to the tourny that year too so scouts only could judge his regular season.  i think green has better potential as a scorer in the nba.  green definitely has better potential as a defender than edwards. 

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3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I think Barnes fits better with Orlando because they have such a clutter of young talent and are trying to build an identity. Within that clutter of players they don't really have a true PG and Barnes is a good playmaker that can play with the ball in his hands. He may not have the crazy upside of Kuminga but they need a high energy, high end role player like him. 

I like Kuminga's fit in OKC because his upside is crazy high and the Thunder have some of the best player development in the league. The Thunder are also in a position to be patient with him as he develops and why collect as many picks as you have if you're not going to swing for the fences? We just saw Presti do it last year with Poku who was extremely raw and got bodied by Kuminga in the G-League. 

I just don’t like these tweener bigs but if Presti drafts him okay I’ll get behind him. I ain’t seen nothing about us and kuminga tho so I doubt it’s an option. Personally if someone else wants to take that risk on Kuminga’s potential and give us like pick 20 and two future top 4 protected firsts… like ATL for example… then I’d be down. Would risk pissing off Shai but he’s RFA anyways

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1 hour ago, Texansfan713 said:

green definitely has better potential as a defender than edwards. 

Yeah definitely disagree here. 
 

both are very young. But I’ll take Edward’s from what I’ve seen so far. 
 

Idk what makes you think Green has more defensive potential 

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7 hours ago, seminoles1 said:

You think so? I feel like Edwards has absolutely massive defensive potential. I haven't watched much of Green though.

Ehh. Anthony Edwards has impressive physical tools but he's a chucker that's more interested in individual stats then winning games. Even when you listen to him talk in interviews he really seems like he doesn't give a f**k. Watching him reminds me of Oladipo, he has his moments where you're like damn this dude is good and then will just completely vanish in other games, great physical tools, just doesn't really have that "it" factor. Even dating back to his college days scouts questioned his feel for the game on both ends of the floor. 

I think Jalen Green is on the opposite end of the spectrum of Edwards in terms of the "it" factor. Everyone that saw him play or that was around him during the G-League bubble has spoken so highly of him. 

What Brian Shaw had to say about Jalen Green:

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I’ve been around some very, very good players that came in the league around his age. Obviously played with and coached Kobe Bryant. 

Those players that are special players, they have this “it” factor that you hear people talk about. He has “it.” He has a knack for being able to figure things out on the fly. He has the mentality that he’s competitive and wants to win at everything. 

One of the G-League executives

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He got better and better. On and off the court, he matured. Diligent about his work, wants to make every shot. Smooth. Runs like a deer. He wants to get better. You tell him something, he does it. He wants to be great. He has open ears. … (Ignite) put him in ball screens, he was getting downhill, he was making plays. Whatever you asked him to do, he made the correction. Did a good job of mixing it up, jumper and driving, (which) will make him more dangerous. I think he’s only going to get better and better. (Defensively), he wanted to get better. In the bubble, he cared. He hooped. He never said anything bad. When things didn’t go well, he was accountable.

One of the G-League coaches that coached against him:

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That stint in the bubble, I think it helped him play under control. He had to learn to play defense. BShaw (Brian Shaw, Ignite’s coach) and them, playing against all those experienced players (including former NBA vets Jarrett Jack and Bobby Brown), it helped him. … I remember how Kobe was as a young dude. He tried to just be explosive, jump over people at any time. Just being reckless, deviates from the play. Green’s going to be an incredible player.

NBA Vet Bobby Brown who was apart of the G-League Ignite team

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“He wasn’t trying to back down from nobody,” Brown said. “He wanted all the smoke from everybody.” There was lots of trash talk that came the Ignite’s way this year.  “I’m trying to shut all that noise up,” Brown recalled Green saying. “Just roll the ball out and hoop, forget all the talking.”

One thing you’ll hear a lot of scouts, analysts and those around the league talk about is Green’s feel for the game.

“He’s always had the IQ,” Roznovosky said. “There was no doubt. And I think there’s something about him that people don’t realize he’s such an unselfish player.”

 

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7 hours ago, brownie man said:

both are very young. But I’ll take Edward’s from what I’ve seen so far. 
 

Idk what makes you think Green has more defensive potential 

What about Edwards makes you think he has more potential on defense? Edwards is physically more developed then Green but being a good defender takes more than just being a great athlete. Defense is about effort and awareness, which is why guys like Thybulle and Dort are such great defenders despite not being the biggest or best athletes at their position. 

On the season Edwards was 3rd worst in defensive rating and 2nd worst in defensive win shares. 

From the article that @Texansfan713 shared: 

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Anthony Edwards was a disaster on defense for most of the season. He ball-watched, didn’t try, and seemed to lack any grasp of what the defensive philosophies were.

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Edwards is tied for the second-worst defensive RAPTOR rating, a FiveThirtyEight metric, among all rookies so far at minus-3.6 and the third-worst among qualified Wolves players. His minus-4.5 defensive box plus/minus is dead last in the entire NBA.

His defensive rebounding rate is in the fourth percentile among players at his position, while his block and steal rates are in the 12th and 18th percentile, respectively.

 

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15 hours ago, Kirill said:

I don’t understand prospect fatigue with Cade. I watched his first game and he looked head and shoulders above the rest of them boys. It was like LeBron in high school. Then the next game I saw of his he hit a game winner.

people say he’s not athletic, I disagree. He’s athletic like harden is. He has elite acceleration/deceleration and burst combined with ball control and elite dribble moves. He’s going to have no problems doing the same things with NBA spacing.

Honestly I think it’s just simply we’ve known about Cade for 2+ years as a likely top pick and has more or less been the consensus #1 overall pick for 9 months and as you get closer to the draft you like to poke holes and then hype up other guys despite flaws. I more or less agree with you completely on Cade I think he’s a nice mix of safe and upside for the #1 pick a good to very good player as a floor and a Tatum like upside. It’s easy to drift over to Green and be like he could be the best scorer in the NBA at some point in his career even if there is more risk with him as a prospect overall. I think it’s just natural. 

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12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I was listening to a draft podcast and one anonymous GM said Kuminga is the type of prospect that if you draft him you might get fired but if you pass on him you might get fired as well. Because if he pans out he has such a high ceiling but if he doesn't he also has such a low floor. Where he ends up is going to have a huge impact on how his career pans out, imo. I think Scottie Barnes is a good fit in Orlando and Kuminga is a good fit in Oklahoma City. 

I can see the appeal with Mobley, IIRC he has the lowest foul rate for a top big prospect since AD. His ability to protect the rim without fouling while also having the mobility to switch onto smaller players defensively is definitely appealing. He needs to get stronger and continue to add range to his jumper but he should be a good NBA player. 

That’s sorta what has taken me off of Kuminga at 4. He’s definitely going to be picked in the 5-8 range he’s definitely worth the swing but it’s just too hard at this point to justify at 4. Yes he out of any non Cade or perhaps Green prospect has the highest chance of being the best player in the draft but the downside is tremendous and for every Kawhi or Giannis there might be a happy middle like OG or Bridges but there’s an awful lot of Stanley Johnson’s and MK-G’s. To take a player like that in the 15-25 range is a lot more palatable to take than in the 3-6 range because it could absolutely get you fired. Like you can squint and see it with Kuminga and that’s why it’s so tantalizing but there is a lot of risk you need to be in the right position and really trust and believe in the team culture. 

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8 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

as prospects i wouldnt.

in a down year in college basketball (19-20) his numbers at georgia as a freshman werent even that great especially shooting wise. georgia wasnt even going to go to the tourny that year too so scouts only could judge his regular season.  i think green has better potential as a scorer in the nba.  green definitely has better potential as a defender than edwards. 

Green is underrated because there weren't a ton of eyes on him this season. The G-League had to pivot at the last minute to a 15 game bubble as opposed to their regular schedule and how many people tuned in to G-League games? 

One of the main reasons that I'd take Jalen Green over Anthony Edwards is because his camp has been very strategic in putting him in a position to develop his game and handle everything that comes with NBA stardom. It's not on the same scale as LaMelo Ball because Lavar was so outspoken and there were obviously a lot more eyes on every move that LaMelo made, but Green had a pretty similar path to the league. 

During his senior year of high school he transferred to Prolific Prep, a boarding school away from home, to play for one of the better HS coaches in the country on a team that played a national schedule. During his time there the team had a reality show on Overtime that documented the ups and downs of their season. He could've played at any college program in the country but went the G-League route and balled out against grown men fighting for their NBA careers. I think his time playing for Brian Shaw and working with NBA level trainers, coaches, and executives for a year is going to pay huge dividends for him. The lights aren't going to be to bright for him and from all accounts he already handles himself like a pro. 

Edwards is on the opposite end of that spectrum. He went to UGA despite knowing the team would suck because he knew he'd always have the ball in his hands. He never seemed interested in playing defense or winning, only putting up flashy plays and big numbers on the box score. That translated onto the court last year as he was literally one of the streakiest players in the league offensively and one of the worst players in the league defensively. And when you listen to him talk to the media he just doesn't sound like a franchise player or a guy that wants to be great. 

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