From Dearborn to Detroit - He's here to 'Saleh' the franchise v2

[Karnage84]

This isn't going to be quite as in depth as @SimbaWho but there should be enough to chew on. 

**V2.0 - Added free agency**

FRONT OFFICE

Louis Riddick - Former Eagles Director of Pro Personnel, current ESPN analyst as General Manager

Riddick has publicly supported Matthew Stafford and is of the belief that he needs to be surrounded with better talent. The Fords love Matthew and it is very difficult to find a franchise quarterback. Because the Lions are going to wind up closer to the middle/bottom of the top 10 as opposed to in the top 3 or 4, the decision is made to build around him for this season. 

 

• Robert Saleh - Current San Francisco 49ers DC as Head Coach

Saleh has strong ties to the area. He has a proven track record on defense and he brings a lot of energy. There are some Mike Vrabel/Jim Schwartz vibes while watching this guy on the sidelines. He seems to do well in press conferences, which does help in shaping the general energy/vibe around the team. 

• Mike McDaniel - Current San Francisco 49ers run game coordinator as Offensive Co-Ordinator

McDaniel is a disciple of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and is a possible HC candidate himself. The team has just invested a high pick in D'Andre Swift and still has former 2nd round pick Kerryon Johnson on the roster. Building an offense with a strong rushing attack should help Stafford in the play-action passing game. 

• Kris Kocurek - Current San Francisco 49ers Defensive Line Coach as Defensive Co-Ordinator

Kocurek has been credited with the improved play on the 49ers defensive line. Some of the Lions best football in recent history has been when the defense was run through the defensive line. 

 

KEY FREE AGENCY

Kenny Golladay - Franchise Tag at $16M APY

Corey Davis, WR - 4 x $8.5M APY

Curtis Samuel, WR (Slot) - 3 x $6.5M APY

Dalvin Tomlinson, DT - 4 x $9.5M APY

Jaquiski Tartt, FS - 2 x $6M APY

 

Golladay does get paid but maybe not exactly how he'd prefer. With a new coaching staff coming in and a possibility of a QB change, the extension talk is put on pause for now. The tool box gets filled to help Stafford in the short term and reduce the drop off if KG does get traded/not re-signed. Davis comes back to Michigan to play the 1B role. Samuel has versatility but will principally play in the slot. Tomlinson is an anchor on the defensive line and helps to solidify the middle of the defense. Tartt comes in as a veteran to help the defense and fills the role to be vacated by Harmon. 

 

In my projection, the Lions finish with the 6th overall pick. 

1) New York Jets - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2) Jacksonville Jaguars - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

3) Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

4) Dallas Cowboys - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

5) LA Chargers - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

 

Rd 1 - With the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

Rd 2 - Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama

Rd 2 - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Rd 3 - Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU

Rd 4 - Levi Onwuzurike, DE/DT, Washington

Rd 5 - Keith Taylor, CB, Washington

Rd 5 - Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson

Rd 6 - Peyton Hendershot, TE, Indiana

Rd 7 - Talanoa Hufanga, S, USC

 

*Note: picks in multiple rounds/rounds Lions do not currently have any picks stem from trades of Patricia particular players (ex. Danny Shelton). 

This draft emphasizes two things - building around Matthew Stafford and rebuilding the defense with an emphasis on the defensive line/front seven. 

Rousseau - The Lions have long struggled to find an edge rusher or when they do, find someone to pair opposite of him. Trey Flowers is not going to be a double digit sack guy. Rousseau should be able to take advantage of the pressures that Flowers creates and be an immediate impact player

Moses - The Lions need to add athleticism to the LB corp. The Lions no longer will be emphasizing slow , 250 lb+  LB's. Moses could wind up in the first round when April rolls around but he's here. 

Leatherwood - Bob Quinn did a pretty decent job at building up the offensive line. However, he whiffed on signing Vaitai to play RT who is better suited to play G. Leatherwood is purposely drafted to play at RT shoring up the OL for Matthew Stafford. He should have plenty of protection moving forward

Shelvin - Another piece on the DL, the Lions have needed to add talent right in the middle. Big bodied dude

Onwuzurike - A versatile piece built like Flowers/Hand, should be able to find a role as a pass rusher

Taylor - Versatile piece that can play inside, outside and even play LB in sub packages

Ross - Probably a 2nd round WR before his injury. Has the potential to develop into a strong contributor. Could be given the time to ensure recovery

Hendershot - Big, athletic TE. Compares to Jace Sternberger as a prospect. Will take some time to develop but could book end Hock as another playmaking TE

Hufanga - Decent SS candidate. Play on special teams. Need to add some help at safety as Will Harris hasn't shown a lot while Harmon is likely not going to be back with Patricia gone. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Karnage84

[LionArkie]

Overall, I like it. I really think our first will be either a DL or LB. So this works for me.  I like the positions drafted in your draft.  It looks really good.

Now if I'm going to nit-pick, one thing I would be concerned with is how "inbred" we are in the coaching staff. All SF guys? I think I would like a little more diversity to offer better innovation, at least in my mind. However, I'm really nit-picking.

 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, LionArkie said:

Overall, I like it. I really think our first will be either a DL or LB. So this works for me.  I like the positions drafted in your draft.  It looks really good.

Now if I'm going to nit-pick, one thing I would be concerned with is how "inbred" we are in the coaching staff. All SF guys? I think I would like a little more diversity to offer better innovation, at least in my mind. However, I'm really nit-picking.

 

You're not wrong. Saleh has been around with a few different teams - Houston, Seattle, Jacksonville, and could select someone from there. I chose Kocurek based on the fact that a) recent history; b) emphasis on DL; c) he's worked under Saleh as a DC as opposed to working with Saleh (both as assistants). 

Offensively, McDaniel has worked under Kyle Shanahan for quite some time. He's well versed in the scheme. For years we have complained about our lack of run game while the Shanahan's are known for making anybody turn into a 1,000 yard rusher. If anyone other than Kyle Shanahan could make the most out of Swift and Kerryon, it would be McDaniel. 

This would fufill the tenet of what Patricia was preaching - strong defense and an emphasis on the run. However, it would be done correctly this time. 

The 49ers took a big leap when they added Nick Bosa to that defensive line. Rousseau isn't Nick Bosa but he's a nice addition and a guy that we could help to build around. If we could re-sign Romeo Okwara to a fair contract then we'd have some really nice pieces in a rotation. However, the Lions aren't flush with cap space and we don't know if the cap is going to drop next year either. Getting a stud on a rookie contract will help. 

I might re-work this in a v2 with free agency factored in. A younger, developmental QB isn't addressed. Assuming that Saleh and co. fit the bill, the Lions presumably could turn this around and be competitive with 2-3 years with Stafford under center. If it's a deeper overhaul, they'll be given the room to make longer term moves including moving on from Stafford early and drafting a young guy high in the draft.  

[SimbaWho]

Picked some solid players in this mock. ( Rousseau, Leatherwood, Shelvin, Williams ) Love those guys. Solid draft imo just circled around those four. Real sure guys like Leatherwood/Williams will be selected higher. Leatherwood is a lot like Lane Johnson without maybe the 4.9 forty or whatever it was, and Williams is a lot like Deeboo Samuel. Don't mind not moving on from Stafford this year if you're not comfortable with a QB around 7-10 in this draft.

Might also, not get a solid return this year for Stafford cause well, he's played like trash, not Trask so far... Ha ha....

Edited November 30, 2020 by SimbaWho

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, SimbaWho said:

Picked some solid players in this mock. ( Rousseau, Leatherwood, Shelvin, Williams ) Love those guys. Solid draft imo just circled around those four. Don't mind not moving on from Stafford this year if you're not comfortable with a QB around 7-10 in this draft. Might also, not get a solid return this year for Stafford cause well, he's played like trash, not Trask so far... Ha ha....

I had looked up an article on Louis Riddick to get a little bit more information on him. The title of article was essentially (paraphrased) "Why Louis Riddick could be the next GM of the Lions" and it was all about how he was pro-Stafford. The Ford family love the guy (Stafford) so if you have a GM come in that they believe in to turn things around AND they don't have to move on from Matthew, I think they'd sign off on it. So that's the theme that I ran with - build a better team around Stafford and rebuilding the defense. Offensively, there isn't a lot that is needed to be competent:

- QB: Matthew Stafford

- RB: Swift and KJ

- TE: Hock

- WR: KG

- LT: Decker

- LG: Jackson

- OC: Ragnow

- RG: Vaitai/Stenberg

- RT: Crosby?

If we can firm up RT, re-sign guys like Marvin Hall to friendly contracts and add some vets in FA then we have the pieces to run a consistent offense that should be able to score. 

If we're able to move on from some of those guys on defense that you've mentioned and add enough pieces with better coaching, then we might be able to turn things around on that side of the ball and win some games. Instead of a full 3- 4 year rebuild we might be looking at a 2 year. Alternatively, the team could select a young QB and then surround him with talent that will grow and develop alongside of him. 

This mock isn't exactly a "this is what I would do" but more of taking an idea that is floating around and see how it might flesh out. 

[Karnage84]

Stafford vs

- Zach Wilson > One year wonder with injury history. Doesn't have a big arm. Athletic

- Trey Lance > NDSU isn't the NFL. Is he Carson Wentz/Josh Allen? 

- Mac Wilson > Plenty of former Bama QB's have not panned out. Not overly big or athletic. 

- Kyle Trask > Inexperienced, not overly athletic. Average arm talent. 

We have Stafford under contract for 2021 and 2022. There are other guys who could be in the mix:

- Sam Howell, UNC

- Kedon Slovis, USC

- Tyler Shough, Oregon

The draft process could show that one of these guys is that special. It really depends on how optimistic you want to be in how fast this turn around should be. 

[Sllim Pickens]

I like this a lot but share the same concerns for players being available where you have them.  I have seen Leatherwood in the top 15 and Moses a mid to late 1st, which is probably why I like this so much.  I also am not sure where we find another 2nd but I'd take it if we can.  I do like Rosseau but he makes me nervous having not played this year and being a one year wonder.  He is going to have to dominate workouts to stay in the top 10 IMO.  Overall I would take it and I think a team like this could compete for the playoffs if the coaching staff pans out like I think they could. 

[Lions017]

16 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Stafford vs

- Zach Wilson > One year wonder with injury history. Doesn't have a big arm. Athletic

- Trey Lance > NDSU isn't the NFL. Is he Carson Wentz/Josh Allen? 

- Mac Wilson > Plenty of former Bama QB's have not panned out. Not overly big or athletic. 

- Kyle Trask > Inexperienced, not overly athletic. Average arm talent. 

We have Stafford under contract for 2021 and 2022. There are other guys who could be in the mix:

- Sam Howell, UNC

- Kedon Slovis, USC

- Tyler Shough, Oregon

The draft process could show that one of these guys is that special. It really depends on how optimistic you want to be in how fast this turn around should be. 

I think that the risk that you run if you don't take a guy that you like this year is that you can't guarantee that we will be in position to draft someone better next year. 

Stafford is still a very good player, and if he's healthy and the team is better coached next year I could easily see them finishing more in the 12-18 draft pick purgatory. He still has enough to win the team a few games, which will probably put you out of contention for the top pick. 

I guess it depends on how the GM decides to rebuild. If they decide to completely gut everything, Stafford probably gets traded and so do some of the other guys. In that case, maybe it's a Miami scenario where we gut the roster and start from scratch. If that's the case, do you want a rookie QB thrown into such a dumpster fire? Or do you wait until you have some better pieces in place, then draft a guy that will be on a cheap deal for five years? Sign someone like Andy Dalton to be a stopgap for a year? 

That's where the value is in the QB market IF you hit on a draft pick. That rookie contract. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Lions017

[Karnage84]

12 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I like this a lot but share the same concerns for players being available where you have them.  I have seen Leatherwood in the top 15 and Moses a mid to late 1st, which is probably why I like this so much.  I also am not sure where we find another 2nd but I'd take it if we can.  I do like Rosseau but he makes me nervous having not played this year and being a one year wonder.  He is going to have to dominate workouts to stay in the top 10 IMO.  Overall I would take it and I think a team like this could compete for the playoffs if the coaching staff pans out like I think they could. 

The rankings are from The Draft Network's mock draft machine. There's always guys floated pre-draft in the first round that wind up as 2nd or less picks while there are guys who shoot up draft boards into the first round. You guys could be completely right but we'll see how it all pans out. Even if the names are different, it's more about the approach and addressing the different position groups. Emphasizing a dominant DL and utilizing some of the pieces that are already here while adding fresh talent to bolster a weakened position group. 

A part of things is looking at the division on a macro level - Green Bay doesn't appear to be going anywhere and will remain a strong contender for the top spot. Chicago is really struggling with its identity and I wonder if they're going to look at firing Nagy or the GM (maybe both). Minnesota has been up and down at times. If we're at least in the top 16 in offense and defense, we have a real shot at potentially winning the division with how things can shake out. It's a near impossible task (that we were still somehow on track for) if your defense is in the 30's. 

[Karnage84]

15 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I think that the risk that you run if you don't take a guy that you like this year is that you can't guarantee that we will be in position to draft someone better next year. 

Stafford is still a very good player, and if he's healthy and the team is better coached next year I could easily see them finishing more in the 12-18 draft pick purgatory. He still has enough to win the team a few games, which will probably put you out of contention for the top pick. 

I guess it depends on how the GM decides to rebuild. If they decide to completely gut everything, Stafford probably gets traded and so do some of the other guys. In that case, maybe it's a Miami scenario where we gut the roster and start from scratch. If that's the case, do you want a rookie QB thrown into such a dumpster fire? Or do you wait until you have some better pieces in place, then draft a guy that will be on a cheap deal for five years? Sign someone like Andy Dalton to be a stopgap for a year? 

That's where the value is in the QB market IF you hit on a draft pick. 

I don't disagree with you on that. If you build a better team around Stafford and he remains the same talent, we're probably looking at 10+ wins for the next 2-3 years. 

There's a few different ways that you can approach it. Some have worked better than others:

- Draft a QB in top 10, sit on bench and let starter run course. Don't add top end talent to roster

- Draft top end talent at other positions in current year, let starter run course. Draft a QB in 1st round in following years

- Draft top end talent at other positions, let starter run course. Trade up into top 10 to get QB

- Trade mid-round picks for a former 1st round (ex. Darnold) or a developmental QB with upside (Garrappolo)

 

The more that I do think about it, IF we brought in someone like Saleh I don't think we'd need to gut the roster. I think we'd nearly gut the LB corp but guys like Flowers and Hand have their role in that defensive scheme. It feels like by year 2 (2022) we should be more consistent assuming the coaches work out as expected. 

I know that @Sllim Pickens and I disagree on this point but I don't think this hurts us (and if anything, helps us). Saleh isn't going to be on a lengthy playoff run. If he's the guy, he can start the day the season ends. There's just that much more time to focus on the roster and develop the plan. Bieniemy is going to be spending several weeks going through the playoffs and trying to repeat as SB champs. 

[LionArkie]

2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't disagree with you on that. If you build a better team around Stafford and he remains the same talent, we're probably looking at 10+ wins for the next 2-3 years. 

There's a few different ways that you can approach it. Some have worked better than others:

- Draft a QB in top 10, sit on bench and let starter run course. Don't add top end talent to roster

- Draft top end talent at other positions in current year, let starter run course. Draft a QB in 1st round in following years

- Draft top end talent at other positions, let starter run course. Trade up into top 10 to get QB

- Trade mid-round picks for a former 1st round (ex. Darnold) or a developmental QB with upside (Garrappolo)

 

The more that I do think about it, IF we brought in someone like Saleh I don't think we'd need to gut the roster. I think we'd nearly gut the LB corp but guys like Flowers and Hand have their role in that defensive scheme. It feels like by year 2 (2022) we should be more consistent assuming the coaches work out as expected. 

I know that @Sllim Pickens and I disagree on this point but I don't think this hurts us (and if anything, helps us). Saleh isn't going to be on a lengthy playoff run. If he's the guy, he can start the day the season ends. There's just that much more time to focus on the roster and develop the plan. Bieniemy is going to be spending several weeks going through the playoffs and trying to repeat as SB champs. 

This comes down to the GM hire, which if it is your guy it will work. But we could be going into February without anything in the FO or coaching staff. I think we will have a better idea of who we are targeting during the playoffs.

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

This comes down to the GM hire, which if it is your guy it will work. But we could be going into February without anything in the FO or coaching staff. I think we will have a better idea of who we are targeting during the playoffs.

We have 5 weeks under Bevell. I doubt he's going to be made the HC even if he wins out but you just never know. We're probably going to be looking at early to mid-January by the time the search is over for the GM position. (6 weeks) and another 2-3 weeks by the time the coaching hire is announced (8-9 weeks). That's assuming they want to take a long look at some of the guys who are in the playoff mix. If it is someone like Riddick he could move a lot faster than someone who is with another organization but it would be better to wait and make sure that we got the right guy to start. 

[Typical_Lions]

One small thing, Justyn Ross is scheduled to have an important meeting with the doctor that performed his surgery in a few days. We might know soon after if he will be playing football again or not. Don't see a team taking a chance on a guy that could get paralyzed easily.

[Karnage84]

Just now, Typical_Lions said:

One small thing, Justyn Ross is scheduled to have an important meeting with the doctor that performed his surgery in a few days. We might know soon after if he will be playing football again or not. Don't see a team taking a chance on a guy that could get paralyzed easily.

That's a fair point. 

Any thoughts on the rest of the draft/FA?

[diehardlionfan]

Just general comments. You’ve gone with popular individuals for GM and HC which at this stage is all you can do.

I don’t have a problem with keeping Stafford. If that’s the path then I think it would be wise to go all in on weapons. I’m comfortable with TJ, KJ and Swift.

Golladay is a really good receiver but I would also like to see them add a high end receiver to the mix. I also really like the drafting of linemen. The only DT I wouldn’t replace is Penisini. 

Edge, LB, OT, DT,CB I think works really well.

I wouldn’t be unhappy with any of this. As much as I would like to see experienced people as GM/HC it likely isn’t going to happen.