WOWY: Alex Smith

[e16bball]

WOWY is a concept used in analytics of team sports, particularly basketball but also soccer and presumably hockey as well. It stands for “With or Without You,” which is intended to describe the idea of measuring how a team performs when a certain player is on the court and comparing that to how they perform when he’s not on the court. It’s also the name of a decent U2 tune, but that’s neither here nor there. 

What I’m about to lay out is actually a little ironic, as this basic concept was a big criticism leveled by Alex Smith’s detractors back in 2018, who compared his performance in KC in 2017 to what his successor was doing when he was gone in 2018. Of course, now we know that his successor turned out to be the football version of a little 8 pound, 6 ounce newborn baby in a manger in Bethlehem, and comparing anyone to him is probably a fool’s errand. 

Anyway, here’s where we’ve stood since acquiring him, in terms of record and point differential, depending on whether he starts or doesn’t start for us...

2018 (With): 6-4 record, -1 PD

2018 (Without): 1-5 record, -77 PD

2019 (Without): 3-13 record, -169 PD

2020 (With): 2-1 record, +33 PD

2020 (Without): 2-6 record, -35 PD

 

Total (With): 8-5 record, +32 PD (+2.5 PPG)

Total (Without): 6-24 record, -281 PD (-9.3 PPG)

[e16bball]

And yeah, it’s a small sample. And yeah, it’s probably gonna take a turn for the worse over the next few weeks. And yeah, there have been some really bad QBs filling his shoes. 

But the bottom line is that the only periods of competitive, winning football we’ve experienced over the last 3 years have coincided directly with Alex Smith as our starting QB. They’ve tried the former playoff QB in Keenum, a couple coach’s pets in McCoy and Allen, the hotshot prospect in Haskins, etc...and none of them have come close to achieving what Alex has achieved. We’re almost 12 points better per game (net) with him than without him. At a certain point, it’s no longer just circumstance and happenstance, it’s a statement of the value he provides as a QB.

What does it all mean? Well, not that much in the grand scheme. He’s still 36 with a bum wheel, so unless he can also discover the fountain of youth in his spare time, we’re still hunting for our own Smith successor. But for right now, I think it means that while the guy may be boring, his brand of football almost always gives you a chance to win. I’m excited to see if there’s any chance we’ll be more competitive over the next 3 weeks than any (well, almost any) of us is expecting. 

[lavar703]

I don’t think there was ever a worry that we’d be a better team with Alex, I think the issue is his style of play puts a cap on how far you can go. So while I’m fine with him being a mentor for Haskins or whoever we pick in the first round this draft we just don’t have the ability to compete at a super bowl level with him at the helm. That didn’t need to be proven here as it was proven in two other places. 

[offbyone]

I am kind of on the fence with this.  No one can argue that the offense is operating measurably better these last several weeks, but lets be honest here, Alex Smith isn't doing all that much.  Did he even throw the ball 100 air yards last week?  I doubt it. 

He is hesitant to throw the ball downfield and loves dumping it off behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Maybe his protection calls are brilliant and he is managing the huddle like a pro and is a master of the 3 yard pass, but he isn't doing all that much as a qb and neither are we really asking him too.  He is pretty much being asked to execute the Ravens game plan.  The difference is our running game is significantly more effective.

I don't want him here next year at that price.  I would rather put that money into a free agent qb or another piece.  I have zero faith that Alex Smith can handle a 16 game season and if you don't believe that you don't pay him the money.

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

I am kind of on the fence with this.  No one can argue that the offense is operating measurably better these last several weeks, but lets be honest here, Alex Smith isn't doing all that much.  Did he even throw the ball 100 air yards last week?  I doubt it. 

He is hesitant to throw the ball downfield and loves dumping it off behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Maybe his protection calls are brilliant and he is managing the huddle like a pro and is a master of the 3 yard pass, but he isn't doing all that much as a qb and neither are we really asking him too.  He is pretty much being asked to execute the Ravens game plan.  The difference is our running game is significantly more effective.

I don't want him here next year at that price.  I would rather put that money into a free agent qb or another piece.  I have zero faith that Alex Smith can handle a 16 game season and if you don't believe that you don't pay him the money.

My problem is the price. The idea that we’re just going to pay this dude $24M is insane to me. Also, while I badly want the team to make a run at Smith-Schuster it’s almost pointless with Alex at the helm. 

[offbyone]

5 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

My problem is the price. The idea that we’re just going to pay this dude $24M is insane to me. Also, while I badly want the team to make a run at Smith-Schuster it’s almost pointless with Alex at the helm. 

Very good point.  If you have a qb who rarely throws the ball down field, what is the point in investing in WR.  In reality, I would rather see Kyle Allen (or similar) plus a receiver like Smith-Schuster or Will Fuller (could use the alex smith 14 million in savings for ) than Alex Smith stop gapping what we got.  It would be better to use that cap space to make a long term investment in a player whether that be a WR or QB or TE or Oline or even extending Allen.

Of course my opinion is that Alex Smith is a dead end.  This season is actually the perfect situation for him, because he only has to play a partial season and was like 3rd in practice reps for half the season.  

[e16bball]

23 hours ago, lavar703 said:

My problem is the price. The idea that we’re just going to pay this dude $24M is insane to me. Also, while I badly want the team to make a run at Smith-Schuster it’s almost pointless with Alex at the helm. 

22 hours ago, offbyone said:

Very good point.  If you have a qb who rarely throws the ball down field, what is the point in investing in WR.  In reality, I would rather see Kyle Allen (or similar) plus a receiver like Smith-Schuster or Will Fuller (could use the alex smith 14 million in savings for ) than Alex Smith stop gapping what we got.  It would be better to use that cap space to make a long term investment in a player whether that be a WR or QB or TE or Oline or even extending Allen.

Of course my opinion is that Alex Smith is a dead end.  This season is actually the perfect situation for him, because he only has to play a partial season and was like 3rd in practice reps for half the season.  

Interesting point here, vis a vis not investing in WRs with Smith at the helm.

We know he can support a WR1, as 2nd-year Tyreek Hill had 1200 yards in 15 games with him back in 2017. And Terry McLaurin is on a 1450 yard season pace since he took over this year, so that’s not just an Andy Reid thing.

And we also know he can support a complementary receiving target, as Travis Kelce had over 1000 yards that same season in 15 games. 

But Kelce is a TE, which is admittedly a different animal than another WR. He’s often had heavily targeted WR1s (Hill, Maclin, Bowe, Crabtree). But I cannot find a season in which he had two WRs with heavy target shares. That’s probably a little misleading, because at both stops prior to here, he had elite TEs that gobbled up targets because they were that good, but the data is what it is. There does not seem to be much point in trying to outfit Alex Smith with a high level WR2, based on all that (plus watching him). 

However. What I would say is that we are not building this team for Alex Smith. Or for next year. We are trying to build a core of players that our next QB can step in and win with quickly. So I don’t think you pass on someone like JuJu just because Alex Smith probably won’t maximize him in 2021. I don’t think you ignore WR and force a big TE signing/pick because that’s the personnel that Alex Smith prefers. He’s a bridge QB. We don’t need to be focusing our resources on building the nicest bridge, we need to be similarly focused on building up what’s going to be on the other side of that bridge. 

This post was just to make the point that he’s a much better bridge than he gets credit for. And perhaps a bit to undermine the refrain that “QBs don’t win games, teams do.” This QB has won a hell of a lot more here than the team has won without him. 

[Thaiphoon]

3 hours ago, e16bball said:

Interesting point here, vis a vis not investing in WRs with Smith at the helm.

We know he can support a WR1, as 2nd-year Tyreek Hill had 1200 yards in 15 games with him back in 2017. And Terry McLaurin is on a 1450 yard season pace since he took over this year, so that’s not just an Andy Reid thing.

And we also know he can support a complementary receiving target, as Travis Kelce had over 1000 yards that same season in 15 games. 

But Kelce is a TE, which is admittedly a different animal than another WR. He’s often had heavily targeted WR1s (Hill, Maclin, Bowe, Crabtree). But I cannot find a season in which he had two WRs with heavy target shares. That’s probably a little misleading, because at both stops prior to here, he had elite TEs that gobbled up targets because they were that good, but the data is what it is. There does not seem to be much point in trying to outfit Alex Smith with a high level WR2, based on all that (plus watching him). 

However. What I would say is that we are not building this team for Alex Smith. Or for next year. We are trying to build a core of players that our next QB can step in and win with quickly. So I don’t think you pass on someone like JuJu just because Alex Smith probably won’t maximize him in 2021. I don’t think you ignore WR and force a big TE signing/pick because that’s the personnel that Alex Smith prefers. He’s a bridge QB. We don’t need to be focusing our resources on building the nicest bridge, we need to be similarly focused on building up what’s going to be on the other side of that bridge. 

This post was just to make the point that he’s a much better bridge than he gets credit for. And perhaps a bit to undermine the refrain that “QBs don’t win games, teams do.” This QB has won a hell of a lot more here than the team has won without him. 

With you on all of this with one quibble. QBs aren't wholly responsible for wins. No player is wholly responsible. Teams are. Coaches are. Which is why W/L is not an individual player stat IMHO. What QBs (and other positions) can do is greatly affect the outcome of the game. But they cannot do it all themselves. Heck...sometimes the other team helps without the QB even being on the field. Case in point the Pats/Seahawks SB. That was a loss for the Pats. Brady already had the towel over his head sulking when Seattle was on the 2 yard line and ready to run Marshawn. Then they throw and the defense gets the INT to seal the win. Brady wasn't on the field. But gets credit for it. Same with the Falcons SB loss. Brady was great. But had Shanahan remembered to run the dang ball and take time off the clock between snaps, the Pats run out of time and their comeback falls short. None of that was within Brady's control. Yes, what he did when he had the ball was great. But that still doesn't amount to a win. The defense has to do their job too. And QBs don't play defense.

But I digress and will stop the hijack.

Back to your excellent post ---> We completely agree here that Alex would be the bridge we need. I trust him more than I trust Allen. And I don't really trust another veteran QB to come in here and be smart enough to run the offense the next year. So yeah. If we're picking where we are picking now, we don't go QB and it just makes sense to have Alex back as the starter. 

[offbyone]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

Interesting point here, vis a vis not investing in WRs with Smith at the helm.

We know he can support a WR1, as 2nd-year Tyreek Hill had 1200 yards in 15 games with him back in 2017. And Terry McLaurin is on a 1450 yard season pace since he took over this year, so that’s not just an Andy Reid thing.

And we also know he can support a complementary receiving target, as Travis Kelce had over 1000 yards that same season in 15 games. 

But Kelce is a TE, which is admittedly a different animal than another WR. He’s often had heavily targeted WR1s (Hill, Maclin, Bowe, Crabtree). But I cannot find a season in which he had two WRs with heavy target shares. That’s probably a little misleading, because at both stops prior to here, he had elite TEs that gobbled up targets because they were that good, but the data is what it is. There does not seem to be much point in trying to outfit Alex Smith with a high level WR2, based on all that (plus watching him). 

However. What I would say is that we are not building this team for Alex Smith. Or for next year. We are trying to build a core of players that our next QB can step in and win with quickly. So I don’t think you pass on someone like JuJu just because Alex Smith probably won’t maximize him in 2021. I don’t think you ignore WR and force a big TE signing/pick because that’s the personnel that Alex Smith prefers. He’s a bridge QB. We don’t need to be focusing our resources on building the nicest bridge, we need to be similarly focused on building up what’s going to be on the other side of that bridge. 

This post was just to make the point that he’s a much better bridge than he gets credit for. And perhaps a bit to undermine the refrain that “QBs don’t win games, teams do.” This QB has won a hell of a lot more here than the team has won without him. 

We need to determine if he is a bridge to somewhere or nowhere.  If we don't draft a qb, I am not sure the point in keeping him on the roster.  If we do draft a qb then we need to decide if Alex Smith the bridge is worth having over another long term investment in a FA piece.

Bridges are nice, but sometimes they are a luxury you can't afford.  We need to decide if a 14M dollar bridge is worth it.  

I still stand by my opinion that his play is average at best and he is leaving a lot on the table.  I don't really understand why Haskins or some other average player couldn't execute the current game plan.  This could change over the final games if the offense evolves and Alex Smith shows he can do more than dump off the ball.

[Woz]

10 hours ago, e16bball said:

But Kelce is a TE, which is admittedly a different animal than another WR. He’s often had heavily targeted WR1s (Hill, Maclin, Bowe, Crabtree). But I cannot find a season in which he had two WRs with heavy target shares. That’s probably a little misleading, because at both stops prior to here, he had elite TEs that gobbled up targets because they were that good, but the data is what it is. There does not seem to be much point in trying to outfit Alex Smith with a high level WR2, based on all that (plus watching him). 

1. You arguably didn't go back far enough. In his early career, his target leaders (bolded are WR, underlined are T
   1. 2005 = Brandon Lloyd (109), Arnaz Battle (54), Johnnie Morton (44), Kevan Barlow (42), Frank Gore (22)
      [Mike Nolan is head coach]
   2. 2006 = Antonio Bryant (91), Frank Gore (86), Arnaz Battle (85), Eric Johnson (49) Vernon Davis (42)
   3. 2007 = Arnaz Battle (104), Darrell Jackson (104), Vernon Davis (85), Frank Gore (69), Delanie Walker (42)
   4. 2008 = Isaac Bruce (108), Bryant Johnson (75), Frank Gore (66), Vernon Davis (49), Josh Morgan (43)
      [Mike Singletary takes over midway through 2007, full time HC in 2008]
   5. 2009 = Vernon Davis (128), Michael Crabtree (86), Josh Morgan (80), Frank Gore (75), Isaac Bruce (49)
   6. 2010 = Michael Crabtree (101), Vernon Davis (93), Josh Morgan (80), Frank Gore (72), Delanie Walker (45)
      
      [Singletary is fired before end of 2010, Jim Harbaugh replaces him in 2011]
       
   7. 2011 = Michael Crabtree (115), Vernon Davis (95), Delanie Walker (35), Braylon Edwards (34), Ted Ginn Jr. (33)
   8. 2012 (half season) = Michael Crabtree (58), Mario Manningham (38), Vernon Davis (37), Randy Moss (22), Frank Gore (22)
      
      After this point, he then becomes the two target guy you mention. So, combination of Harbaugh and Reid?
       
2. Realistically, though, he needs two top targets. Whether that is a WR2 (for the record, in 2006 Arnaz Battle was targeted 85 times and was the 3rd most targeted player behind Antonio Bryant (91) and Frank Gore (86)) or a true TE1, there needs to be someone to take the pressure off McLaurin.

 

 

[Woz]

5 hours ago, offbyone said:

We need to determine if he is a bridge to somewhere or nowhere.  If we don't draft a qb, I am not sure the point in keeping him on the roster.  If we do draft a qb then we need to decide if Alex Smith the bridge is worth having over another long term investment in a FA piece.

Well, if they don't draft a QB, then Alex Smith is almost assuredly the starting QB going into 2021. Kyle Allen couldn't get the job done.

Arguably, a guy like Alex Smith would allow Washington to take Trask or a Lance or one of those other guys that have been discussed but need time.

5 hours ago, offbyone said:

I don't really understand why Haskins or some other average player couldn't execute the current game plan.

He probably could but Rivera's ego wouldn't give him a chance.

What Haskins would have done with that chance is a totally different question, especially against the weakass teams they have faced over the last 6-8 weeks.

Making Haskins the QB now right before this stretch of games against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Seattle, though, would just be cruel.

Having been a fan of this franchise for so long, I kind of expect it. Oh and to have Haskins show flashes of brilliance and confusion, just to stir the pot even more.

[turtle28]

On 12/1/2020 at 5:52 AM, e16bball said:

WOWY is a concept used in analytics of team sports, particularly basketball but also soccer and presumably hockey as well. It stands for “With or Without You,” which is intended to describe the idea of measuring how a team performs when a certain player is on the court and comparing that to how they perform when he’s not on the court. It’s also the name of a decent U2 tune, but that’s neither here nor there. 

What I’m about to lay out is actually a little ironic, as this basic concept was a big criticism leveled by Alex Smith’s detractors back in 2018, who compared his performance in KC in 2017 to what his successor was doing when he was gone in 2018. Of course, now we know that his successor turned out to be the football version of a little 8 pound, 6 ounce newborn baby in a manger in Bethlehem, and comparing anyone to him is probably a fool’s errand. 

Anyway, here’s where we’ve stood since acquiring him, in terms of record and point differential, depending on whether he starts or doesn’t start for us...

2018 (With): 6-4 record, -1 PD

2018 (Without): 1-5 record, -77 PD

2019 (Without): 3-13 record, -169 PD

2020 (With): 2-1 record, +33 PD

2020 (Without): 2-6 record, -35 PD

 

Total (With): 8-5 record, +32 PD (+2.5 PPG)

Total (Without): 6-24 record, -281 PD (-9.3 PPG)

You need to start a blog and make $, of course you may already do that or be a writer and we have no idea. Incredible stuff. The guy is just a winner. He doesn’t usually make the big mistakes that Wilk lose his team games. He is efficient and controls the clock even if it’s just through his short accurate passing game which keeps the defense off the field as much and fresh which helps the defense out as well and makes our D better, having Alex at QB & Peterson at RB in 2018 really helped our defense out, as they were more fresh and we won more games.

[turtle28]

On 12/1/2020 at 9:04 AM, lavar703 said:

I don’t think there was ever a worry that we’d be a better team with Alex, I think the issue is his style of play puts a cap on how far you can go. So while I’m fine with him being a mentor for Haskins or whoever we pick in the first round this draft we just don’t have the ability to compete at a super bowl level with him at the helm. That didn’t need to be proven here as it was proven in two other places. 

Yeah, his cap was/maybe still is, getting to the playoffs and maybe winning a game not sure why people don’t want that considering where this franchise has been the last 27 years. Alex is no savior, never should’ve been or should be viewed as a long term option or fix but, if you want to win more than you lose, be in contention for the playoffs every year and maybe just maybe get a few breaks for once and win a playoff game for once, he can do that for you, he’s proven that much.

 

[turtle28]

On 12/1/2020 at 3:02 PM, lavar703 said:

My problem is the price. The idea that we’re just going to pay this dude $24M is insane to me. Also, while I badly want the team to make a run at Smith-Schuster it’s almost pointless with Alex at the helm. 

Why? Smith-Schuster’s ypc this year with Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball is just 8.7 ypc, he’s the Steelers underneath WR and doesn’t get as much yac as Claypool, D. Johnson or James Washington who are used Dow field far far more downfield.

Big Ben & Alex Smith in a lot of ways are very similar QBs right now at the end of their careers. Ben’s air yards are way down and they run a quick passing offense with a lot of underneath throws and I realize Ben throws to the WRs more than Alex, but still a lot of those throws are still around the line of scrimmage and for sure under 15 yards.

I question making Juju one of the highest paid WRs in the NFL next year bc his ypc is less than most TEs. Juju’s ypc is a yard less than Logan Thomas’s. That’s an issue.  Juju’s 8.7 ypc is also only 1.4 ypc more than JD McKissic the target you like to hate the most of Alex Smith’s. Well, given that Juju averages only 8.7 ypc maybe he does actually fit in here as our #2 WR next year but I’d hate to see us give him $40 million guaranteed for two years of what will be a near $100 million contract just bc he’s a name who has been a slot WR this year and more or less will mostly be that for us too should we sign him.

I don’t actually mind paying Alex Smith $24 million next year bc we’re getting a competent starter like we’ve seen since Kyle Allen was hurt. So while paying $24 million is too much for Alex at his ability right now it’s still not that much for a starting QB consider what the going rate is for the best QBs now is 5 to $15 million more than what Alex will make next year and Alex with Gibson as our RB workhorse, a true #1 TE added in the offseason an upgrade at #2 and an upgraded LB corps makes us a playoff contender next year and not just bc our division will suck either. We’d be back to where we were in 2018 before Alex broke his leg with a younger team with more young talent and a brighter future bc of the young players that will be around Alex.

[turtle28]

On 12/3/2020 at 1:57 AM, Woz said:

1. You arguably didn't go back far enough. In his early career, his target leaders (bolded are WR, underlined are T
   1. 2005 = Brandon Lloyd (109), Arnaz Battle (54), Johnnie Morton (44), Kevan Barlow (42), Frank Gore (22)
      [Mike Nolan is head coach]
   2. 2006 = Antonio Bryant (91), Frank Gore (86), Arnaz Battle (85), Eric Johnson (49) Vernon Davis (42)
   3. 2007 = Arnaz Battle (104), Darrell Jackson (104), Vernon Davis (85), Frank Gore (69), Delanie Walker (42)
   4. 2008 = Isaac Bruce (108), Bryant Johnson (75), Frank Gore (66), Vernon Davis (49), Josh Morgan (43)
      [Mike Singletary takes over midway through 2007, full time HC in 2008]
   5. 2009 = Vernon Davis (128), Michael Crabtree (86), Josh Morgan (80), Frank Gore (75), Isaac Bruce (49)
   6. 2010 = Michael Crabtree (101), Vernon Davis (93), Josh Morgan (80), Frank Gore (72), Delanie Walker (45)
      
      [Singletary is fired before end of 2010, Jim Harbaugh replaces him in 2011]
       
   7. 2011 = Michael Crabtree (115), Vernon Davis (95), Delanie Walker (35), Braylon Edwards (34), Ted Ginn Jr. (33)
   8. 2012 (half season) = Michael Crabtree (58), Mario Manningham (38), Vernon Davis (37), Randy Moss (22), Frank Gore (22)
      
      After this point, he then becomes the two target guy you mention. So, combination of Harbaugh and Reid?
       
2. Realistically, though, he needs two top targets. Whether that is a WR2 (for the record, in 2006 Arnaz Battle was targeted 85 times and was the 3rd most targeted player behind Antonio Bryant (91) and Frank Gore (86)) or a true TE1, there needs to be someone to take the pressure off McLaurin.

 

 

Yes, but we shouldn’t be giving that guy a #1 type contract. We definitely need an upgrade at #2 WR - unless Cam Sims really shows out the final 5 games - and even if he does, he would still need either vet competition or draft pick competition bc there’s no way we can just had Cam Sims or Harmon the #2 job.