Post-Thanksgiving Mock

[Joe]

It's that time of the year when we begin our early entry into looking ahead to the draft....despite Covid. Moretti posted a solid initial mock last week with some cool personal photos that I was happy to see where appreciated by the rest of you. Currently, I'm outside Pat's steaks in Philly chowing down on a cheesesteak with Gritty staring me down for some reason...

**I'm not an expert on the salary cap and we don't know where the salary cap is going to be so don't bust my balls over numbers here. Also, I'm not going to foray into the Aaron Jones situation at the moment simply because we don't know where the cap is anyway**

Anyway, here goes:

Re-signs:

Notable:
Kevin King: 3-year, $22 million

Look, we have to re-sign him simply because he matches up well with taller receivers, he's not afraid to lay the wood when need be, and despite his injury history he's been healthier lately than in previous years. You can tell me you can replace his profile, characteristics, and speed in Tyson Campbell(CB, UGA), but will Campbell be there at pick 55 or 60 where we are most likely to be picking? Can't say you can bet on that; especially given that Campbell will need time to adjust to the pro game as a rookie. He will need a solid vet in front of him, which is what King gives us.

Allen Lazard: 3 year, $30 million

Hot take: Lazard is a solid WR2 until further notice. He's done nothing to suggest he isn't sure-handed with the ball, he makes plays after the catch, he doesn't fumble, he plays like a grown-@$$ man, and I bet you can't remember the last time he dropped a ball. For $10 mil a year I don't know what more you could want out of him?

Robert Tonyan: 2 year, $18 million

He's the TE that we've wanted for quite sometime. He was a bit down parts of last year, but who wasn't? He's an excellent fit for MLF's offense and he just finds ways to get open. He's no world beater, but he's the reliable check-down you want plus some speed to beat LB's and S's on the occasional post patter; which is also usually a TD or a sizeable gain.

Chandon Sullivan: 3 years, $24 million

Sullivan's that role player that rarely finds himself on the wrong side of a call or a big play. He's the Allen Lazard of the defense: he's taken advantage of every single opportunity thrown in front of him and has made the best of it and more at times. Pay the man!

Jamaal Williams: 3 year, $16.5 million(with significant incentives)

He's not a world beater, but he's the role player that everyone loves on the team that can get you the extra yard or five when you need it. He's Najeh Davenport without the pooping in the sorority girl's closet. For roughly 6 mil a year, why not?


Krys Barnes: 3 year, $4 million

Apparently he's an ERFA according to Spotrac so we have to resign him. He's done enough his rookie year to prove that we should've kept our 4th round pick and perhaps drafted him there instead of  gambling on traits by trading up for a third string QB who won't see the field for another 3 years should give him a legit rookie contract.

Other notable resignings:
Will Redmond: strictly depth
Billy Winn
Raven Greene
Tyler Ervin
Tavon Austin: yes, I'm going with both because both are cheap IMHO


Notable good-byes:

Corey Linsley:

This is one of those "love the player, hate the reality" type of things like what we saw with Darius Shepherd recently. You like the player, you like his skills, but you know when it's time to say goodbye. Linsley has been solid as a starter, but when he's been hurt, the OL regularly picks up without missing a beat regardless of who is playing Center. With Jake Hanson drafted to be groomed for the position, Elgton Jenkins and Lucas Patrick having played the position at a solid level, Linsley has surprisingly become expendable given his constant injury woes.

Lane Taylor:

This is almost a "see Corey Linsley" type of thing and I feel horrible for this guy as well. He busted his @$$ just to make the team under McCarthy, then backed it up with his play, then spent the last 2-3 years getting hurt. SOMEONE has to see the value in this guy and keep him healthy, but it ain't us; we're ridiculously deep along the IOL.

Other notable releases/goodbyes:
Montravious Adams
Tyler Lancaster
Will Redmond
Oren Burks(TC cut)

FA signings:

Malik Hooker, S: 1 year, $5 million

Hooker will be coming off a torn Achilles and has been trending down a bit over the past couple of years. Could be worth kicking the tires on a former 1st round pick.

Ronald Darby, CB: 2 year $7 million

Josh Jackson has been wildly inconsistent and with the pending departure of Will Redmond, it would behoove us to take a chance on a middle-of-the-road FA to hold down the CB4 fort while a rookie learns the ropes. This could be a good short-term investment while we draft and develop capital at other positions.

 

The Draft:
IMHO, we get Tampa Bay in the first round and they come to Lambeau, punch us in the mouth, and we're left with the 23rd pick. I'm also assuming that we will have an additional pick in all four rounds on Day 3.

1.23: Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU:

Marshall is an excellent prospect to be inserted into the fold as a WR3. He is a complete player at the college level, but will need to improve is blocking skills at the next level - though with an equally physical WR room, he should refine those skills in no time being able to contribute almost right away.

2.55: Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota:

He may be a year off, but he could easily slide into RT very early in his career and shift over to LT in time. Despite his size(6-8, 400), he's nimble on his feet and was built for the sport. He may even sneak his way into the early 2nd or late 1st round depending on how he fares at the combine...

3.87: Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina:

He's the spitting image of Kevin King: 6-3, 205, long, wiry, aggressive AF, fast, high-hipped, leggy, can be beaten in coverage by shiftier receivers from time to time. BUT.....has the frame to add some mass so he could be a candidate for SS/dime-backer thus potentially replacing Raven Greene. In any event, Mukuamu provides a sense of diversity in his use and would be prime value if he's still there at 87.

**Trade: we send our second 4th round and first 5th round pick to move up to the top of the 4th round receiving an early 6th**

4a.: Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Washington:

He may be our 3rd round pick TBH. He's one of the best run defenders in the draft and has similar measurables to that of Kingsley Keke. However, he needs to be coached up a bit and needs to fare better against lateral blocks despite his agility. A little coaching up and seasoning could make him a solid, if not spectacular starter alongside Kenny Clark. 

4b.: Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa St:

It may not be pretty, but Kolar gets the job done. Alignment diverse, solid blocking skills, and like former ISU standout and Packer favorite Allen Lazard: he makes tough catches in traffic. He may not be starter quality immediately, but he certainly will find his way into the line-up. His routes are sloppy, as is much of what he does, but he knows how to get the job done and that's what matters.

5. Jordan Williams, IDL, Clemson:

He may not be a penetrating IDL, but he more than makes up for it in the run game while "resetting" the LOS; his best strength is identifying run blocking assignments and defeating them. The good news is that Williams' gap diversity and strength provides the notion that there may be some significant pass-rush potential that could be unlocked by a solid IDL coach. He may fall further than the 5th, but certainly a solid rotational IDL at worst. 

6a:. Mike Rose, ILB, Iowa St.:

He's a poor man's Brian Urlacher: he's fast, he's big, he can cover, he can rush, and he's been productive. Like fellow Cyclone AJ Klein, Mike Rose is the latest ISU ILB to be solid, yet not spectacular. As a 6th round choice, he can play that thumper role in the run game while playing sideline-to-sideline at an elevated level - value pick and a solid role player.

6b:. Bobby Brown III, IDL, Texas A&M:

Sorry, I had to go with the Maya Rudolph reference given the name of the player....Frank Zappa would've worked too but I doubt y'all would've gotten the reference....

In any case, BBIII is a "problem" in the middle of the IDL but only when his "motor is running consistently." In other words, he's a great back-up NT who needs a ton of conditioning to be solid as a pro. The tools are there, the conditioning is not. At this point in the draft, why not???

6c:. Tyreke Smith, EDGE, Ohio St.:

Smith is that EDGE rusher that can drop back into coverage and keep defenses guessing. Smith also holds more developmental potential that Garvin, one of our 7th round selections this past year.

7a:. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio St:

Solid college starter with production. Physical AF.

7b:. Alaric Jackson, OL, Iowa:

This is an Andrew Datko pick minus the chronic shoulder issues. Like Datko, Jackson was a shoe-in for being a 1st round pick and then all hell broke loose. In this case, there's apparently tightness in his play, but given our OL coaches, we could make him a starting RT nonetheless IMHO though I'm not holding my breath.

 

Notable UDFA: Max Borghi, RB, Wash. St; Cole Van Lanen, OL, Wisconsin; Charleston Rambo, WR, Oklahoma; LaBryan Ray, IDL, Alabama; Michael Penix JR, QB(moved to WR), Indiana; JaQuan Bailey, EDGE, Iowa St.; Tuf Borland, ILB, Ohio St.; Cordell Volson, OL, NDSU

 

Fire away! 

[Packerraymond]

Sullivan, Lazard, Tonyan are RFA/ERFAs, no reason to give them money in a Covid year, they'll all be back on 1 year deals.

You're going to need to cut Kirksey, Wagner and maybe Preston to make all that happen.

[Joe]

LIS. This isn't about the money, it's about the strategy...

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, Joe said:

LIS. This isn't about the money, it's about the strategy...

The strategy depends on the money. 

[Packerraymond]

Prospect wise, I'd bet just about everything I have on us not taking a round 1 WR. Just not something we do. If we get "punched in the mouth" by Tampa, what good is a WR going to do?

I like going OL in round 2, but again, has GB ever had a 350 pound OL? Let alone 400?

I just see too many "tendency breakers" early here. GB is pretty predictable on what it's going to do.

[moretti19]

Thanks for the mock as I thoroughly enjoy reading them and getting a feel of the prospects. Anyone that says it’s crazy would have completely crapped on you for taking Love and Dillon in a mock last year.

in Kevin Kings Instagram he constantly tags 100 million which he will never get obviously but I think he will chase the money.

[OneTwoSixFive]

I will agree with Packerraymond on that O lineman Faalele (I saw him listed as 6'9", but who knows what he actually is before the combine, if there is one). Monster O linemen (like the Lions Aaron Gibson for example, or Chester McGlockton) seldom seem to pan out. While there are exceptions, I wouldn't like to see anyone drafted on the O or D line, that is much over 6'7" in height.  Even more so if they are much over 320 lb, because of the wear and tear on those knee joints.

I COULD see a WR in round one, because while the Packers have a history of round 2 WRs, we really need to add a quality D lineman, and although too early to be sure, round two seems to be the 'sweet spot' to get one (in round 1 there appears to be Tufele and not much else). If King is retained (your scenario) the need for a CB is less, but I think he will be gone, making a round 1 CB highly likely.

I do like that WR/OT/CB/DL are addressed in the first four picks.

Edited December 3, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive

[Arthur Penske]

What happens to jones or did I miss that? Seems notable 

[Rodjahs12]

Tonyan at 9 per? 
 

Darby sucks. Less than Jackson but he isn’t any good. 
 

like the draft 

[Arthur Penske]

7 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

Tonyan at 9 per? 
 

Darby sucks. Less than Jackson but he isn’t any good. 
 

like the draft 

I don’t think we’re gonna have to pay Tonyan this off seas but if he keeps playing at this level for a couple years he’s gonna cost some coin to keep

[Rodjahs12]

2 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

I don’t think we’re gonna have to pay Tonyan this off seas but if he keeps playing at this level for a couple years he’s gonna cost some coin to keep

For sure, he’s thrived in this offense but I’m not entirely convinced we couldn’t get the most out of a number of guys at the TE position with MLF. Not trying to knock Bob T too much he’s done an excellent job but if I’m going to pay him the same as Chicago paid Jimmy Graham I’m going to need to see another season of it.

[Arthur Penske]

3 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

For sure, he’s thrived in this offense but I’m not entirely convinced we couldn’t get the most out of a number of guys at the TE position with MLF. Not trying to knock Bob T too much he’s done an excellent job but if I’m going to pay him the same as Chicago paid Jimmy Graham I’m going to need to see another season of it.

Perhaps but what did Jimmy G/ Sternbeger do with MLF? Early for stern but there’s no guarantee he’ll development like Tonyan who has really become a good player and Rodgers loves him. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Sullivan, Lazard, Tonyan are RFA/ERFAs, no reason to give them money in a Covid year, they'll all be back on 1 year deals.

That was my initial thought as well.  That's a TON of coin to be spending on guys who legitimately have virtually no chance of leaving as RFA/ERFAs.  You throw out a SRP tender on Tonyan and Lazard with the hope that someone might bite, and if they do they're likely overpaying and you let them walk and collect your draft pick.

[PossibleCabbage]

Isn't the cap set to explode in 2022 with the new TV deals?  No reason to pay the ERFA guys a year early.

[pacman5252]

3 hours ago, Rodjahs12 said:

Tonyan at 9 per? 
 

Darby sucks. Less than Jackson but he isn’t any good. 
 

like the draft 

Yeah, Tonyan is a RFA. He will be cheap next season. With that said, in 2022, non Covid year with a normal cap, 8-9m for a young starting TE on contract 2 might be the going rate.

Look at the pay scale right now:

https://overthecap.com/position/tight-end/

The going rate for a mid tier starter is 5-8m right now. If he keeps what he’s doing up, the cap goes up, 4 years 30m is probably the deal.

Edited December 3, 2020 by pacman5252