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The Carr dilemma in 2021


The Carr Dilemma 2021  

47 members have voted

  1. 1. What to do with Carr in 2021

    • Option 1: extend Carr
      24
    • Option 2: trade Carr
      8
    • Neither
      15


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Around this time of year each season I start to look forward and consider when the Raiders might do in free agency. Unlike in seasons past, the Raiders will be pressed up against the cap without much room to make splash signings. Even with obvious cuts like Tyrell Williams, Marcus Mariota, and Lemarcus Joyner, the Raiders will only have around $23 million in projected room before any re-signings.

The elephant in the room is Derek Carr's contract--which I have always maintained is a bargain given the landscape. Still, Carr's $20 million 2021 salary is the team's biggest number next season and somewhat prohibitive in the Raiders' ability to make splash signings in a farily stacked projected free agent class. I also think making the right signings this class could vault the Raiders into regular playoff contention for the next few seasons. With the foundation already laid, the Raiders can now add some blue chip talent on the defensive line and offensive perimeter that has been missing since Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper left.

So, in my mind the Raiders have two real options in 2021. Option 1 is extending Carr as the unquestioned QBotF. Carr's 2021 base salary could be severely cut if the Raiders commit to him for the next half decade. In this case, the Raiders commit to Carr, add a weapon like Allen Robinson or Juju Smith-Schuster on offense, and a maybe a couple defenders like Leonard Williams and Matt Judon, with sights aimed consistent playoff runs in 2021-2025.

Option 2 is trading Carr. Carr's value is at the highest its been since 2016, and he carries a relatively modest salary for the next two seasons. I am willing to bet a team like the Bears, or even Cowboys, 49ers, Panthers, Patriots, or Eagles, might be willing to invest in Carr's depressed cost to make playoff runs--not unlike what Tannehill was able to do with a ready-to-win Titans team. In this case, the Raiders clear nearly $20 million in cap room to go after blue-chip free agents and acquire a quarterback through the draft. The upside here is you might end up with a quarterback who is better than Carr and potentially better equipped to compete with Patrick Mahomes for the next decade. And, if the quarterback pans out, you get his depressed salary for at least 4 seasons.

I haven't taken a close look at this year's class of quarterbacks yet. I believe in Lawrence and have very little questions about him. I did not like what I saw from Justin Fields in 2020, but I have heard his has markedly improved in 2021. There are also Trey Lance, who I was mild on from what I saw in 2020, and Zach Wilson, who I have seen none of.

So, what do you all think?

 

Edited by Rich7sena
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You all know I support Carr as our QB going forward.  But that hinges on him playing at the level of 2016 and recently.  If he continues to play at this level (we're going to have bad games here and there) I think that you extend him and keep building around him.  We're in purgatory.  Not going to draft high enough without mortgaging future capital.  And we have a QB who can do exactly what the coach and scheme require.  So why waste a 16-32 pick?  

I think we can all agree that our issues are not on offense (minus a minor tweak here or there). If I'm Grudock, I'm making every effort to add as much playmaking, talent and ability to this defense including the coaching staff.  

So my answer is extend Carr, tweak offense, and put heavy attention on defense.  

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9 minutes ago, Totty said:

You all know I support Carr as our QB going forward.  But that hinges on him playing at the level of 2016 and recently.  If he continues to play at this level (we're going to have bad games here and there) I think that you extend him and keep building around him.  We're in purgatory.  Not going to draft high enough without mortgaging future capital.  And we have a QB who can do exactly what the coach and scheme require.  So why waste a 16-32 pick?  

I think we can all agree that our issues are not on offense (minus a minor tweak here or there). If I'm Grudock, I'm making every effort to add as much playmaking, talent and ability to this defense including the coaching staff.  

So my answer is extend Carr, tweak offense, and put heavy attention on defense.  

I have been a consistent Carr supporter as well. Carr, to me, has been one of the hardest working players in the NFL since he came in and the most dedicated Raider. I don't think most quarterbacks would have survived a severe injury in 2017, a teardown in 2018, and a rebuild in 2019. I have also maintained that Carr has been the same player since 2016, and played his best season in 2019 before this season. To me, the difference with Carr has been supporting cast and offensive playcalling, which have suppressed his numbers over the past four seasons. Overall, he has improved his pocket presence, pre-snap ability, ability to read the field, accuracy to all parts of the field, and his ability to attack via the run since 2016.

All that said, I still don't think Carr is a perfect fit for this offense. Ideally, Gruden's offense would be better run by a player who is a more natural runner than Carr is. And, since I don't anticipate Gruden ever calling plays directly to Carr's strengths, I think Carr will continue to be stunted by the offense, and the offense stunted by Carr.

And to your point about being in draft purgatory--that wouldn't be the case if Carr is traded. Though it's tough to tell what type of deal that would look like, I wouldn't doubt that Carr could garner a very high pick considering he's already proven and has a modest salary.

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Extend Carr.  He won't get more than 30M a season IMO.  I don't think he even wants to be the highest paid QB this time around.  I believe he will take a team friendly deal so that we can add the necessary talent needed in order to make the playoffs in the future.  I think the answer is extend him on a team friendly contract and cut the fat (Joyner, T. Williams, T. Brown, M. Collins, Nassib, Mariota), resign the good players (Good, Agholor, Booker), and continue to build through the draft and FA.  

As for him being stunted by the offense and the opposite, I disagree.  I think the only thing slowing him down is our atrocious defense and its inability to create pressure and turnovers.  The moment DC goes to a team with a top 10 defense is the moment they become a playoff contender year in and year out.  

Gruden has developed DC into a top 10 QB, I'm not about to bail on him now when we know he's capable of going toe to toe with Mahomes.  It happened in week 5.  The only QB to beat Mahomes in the last year.  You don't quit on that.  I rest my case.

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A few things need to be addressed here.  

My first question is for Rich and I want to know where you would list Carr as a building block QB and who you would definitively put in front of him?

Also risk would have to be assed here.  Risk for Mayock moving on from Carr most specifically.   If he does move on from Carr which I think would be the incorrect move, think of how risky of a proposition that is for Mayock.  Trading a QB who has preformed at an MVP level for an unproven commodity could be career suicide.  You do realize that if Carr is traded to a team like the Bears and he takes them deep into the playoffs, which I have said for years would happen, how much pressure that would put on Mayock by both the media and public perception. 

My point is that QB that was drafted to replace Carr has to be an upgrade or else Mayock will get fired, it's as simple as that.  If that QB turns out to be a complete bum like Winston. MM, Rosen (the list can go on and on) Myock will have sealed his own fate and will never work as a GM again.  No way he would take a risk like that when he has a MVP caliber QB already on the roster who has at least 5 top quality seasons left. 

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Carr has improved but realistically he is still probably the 6th best QB in the AFC, maybe 7th, depending on where you stand on Lamar Jackson. And there are young guys like Burrow and Herbert who project to be better than Carr soon as well.

I'm not paying a non superstar QB who needs a high paid Oline intact 35+ million. That's too much money invested on the O to not be elite. Which we aren't yet on O. If he is open to taking a shorter term Tannehill type, I would be maybe open to that but it really depends on how he finishes the year. Can't collapse again. The real QBs play their best ball late.

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27 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Depends on how he plays down the stretch if he does his usual December tanking I’m done with carr.

Yeah.. I'm with you.  I've supported him throughout.  But if the losses fall squarely on him, it's time.  

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We will keep Carr and develop a young QB behind him. Carr will demand over 40 and get it elsewhere. I was right about Mack and I'm right again. As Raider fans we are blinded and think 'Raiders' means something when MILLIONS are on the table. LOL Wake TFUp it doesn't except for those who were 'resurrected' by the franchise. We built Mack and Carr as they built us. We saw what happened to Mack expect the same with Carr. The NFL is a team sport and you build a strong team and win a SB with a 'cheap' QB. I'd Franchise Carr and milk it another year after his contract expires but we should be looking a late 1st round QB's also. I want to keep Carr but if we get two 1sts offered I could see us moving on. I don't want to but the NFL is changing and it's not about 'keeping up' it's about getting ahead of it. PM's contract will CRUSH KC so compete and beat them now with Carr to stop a dynasty and keep a minds eye on the future and not overspending any one position. If Carr actually did a 'Raider' friendly deal I'd sign him til he's 40!!! LOL I'd even hire 'David' as a consultant who asks his brother 'what weapons do you want?' LOL

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50 minutes ago, Totty said:

Yeah.. I'm with you.  I've supported him throughout.  But if the losses fall squarely on him, it's time.  

He conquered his @kc demons now he’s gotta Conquer his winter demons gotta win in dec no excuses

Edited by NCOUGHMAN
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Carr is your QB going into next year and should not offer an extension. He is on one of the better contracts in the NFL that is something that you take advantage going into next year. After the 2021 season and you have a better understanding what the cap will look like post COVID then do the right thing and extend him before 2022 season. All this depends on his level of play next year, but no reason to think we wont continue to see improvements in his game. 

Worst thing the Raiders can do is extend him after this season and pay more money when you dont need to and use up cap space that can be put into the DL. Cap will be about 20 million less next year. Cant use that on Carr at this time.

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We couldn’t wait 5 more weeks for this thread? They will be extremely crucial in this process. 
 

I will say I’ve been extremely impressed with Carr this season, very impressed. However, I’ve been weary to make any type of judgment on him until the end of the year, as I want to see an entire season of solid play and not the streaky play he is known for. The Atlanta game was a huge red flag, but we’ll see soon if it was just a normal bad game that all QBs have, or the beginning of another Carr streak of horror. 
 

I hope it was just one bad game, as he’s looked great just about all year long. He’s been playing with confidence, standing in the pocket and firing off solid throws, running when we need him to run, and converting 3rd downs in a big way. Most of my complaints he has taken care of this season. I still don’t think he’s throwing deep enough, and it’s mostly on Carr for not getting Ruggs involved just like Cooper pre-gruden. So I hope he works on that. 
 

Like I said though, strange timing with this thread, because all the red flags we’ve complained about Carr all came roaring back in the Atlanta game. However, hopefully that game was a one-off, and he plays a solid five games, making this decision extremely easy. 
 

 

Edited by BayRaider
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13 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Carr is your QB going into next year and should not offer an extension. He is on one of the better contracts in the NFL that is something that you take advantage going into next year. After the 2021 season and you have a better understanding what the cap will look like post COVID then do the right thing and extend him before 2022 season. All this depends on his level of play next year, but no reason to think we wont continue to see improvements in his game. 

Worst thing the Raiders can do is extend him after this season and pay more money when you dont need to and use up cap space that can be put into the DL. Cap will be about 20 million less next year. Cant use that on Carr at this time.

This is the correct answer. He is the QB for 2021, not sure how it can be otherwise at this point. However, we shouldn’t offer an extension based off one season of good play. If he balls out in 2021, you offer him a max QB contract. 

Edited by BayRaider
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Depends on how much he is asking for, but I would offer him an extension in the 25-30mil apy range right now. The cost savings at the position should be at QB2 as Mariota is wasted money and Gruden should be using the back up QB spots to draft and develop guys and get the in the system on the cheap. Something like Carr #1 a Peterman/Glennon type vet #2 on a cheap 1 to 2 year deal then rotate draft and develop guys as QB3 that may ascend to replace the Glennon/Peterman type. A guy like Jacob Eason would have been nice as the QB3 type I'm imagining over a pick like the LB/S from Clemson.

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I think it would be crazy to just let him walk.  Either extend or trade.  It would be insane to let him walk for nothing.  There are at least 10 teams that would trade some serious draft capital to get him.  Especially if he continues to play the way he has these first 11 games.  Even with one more bad game like he had at Atlanta, if we win 4 out of the next 5 and he puts up another 10 touchdowns, teams will be calling for him all offseason.

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