The Carr dilemma in 2021

[Jerry]

2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

In my scenario, if Carr is traded it would be to draft a top prospect. I did a cursory viewing of Wilson and Fields this week, and I would trade Carr if it meant the team could draft Wilson.

What exactly is your scenario?  Who do we trade Carr to and what do we receive?  How does the draft and FA play out in your scenario to get us into the playoffs?  I want the details.

[NightTrainLane]

5 hours ago, dante9876 said:

I honestly wouldn't pay any high price wr until the offense shows they will use him. I would love Robinson. But to pay his price tag and only give him 60 targets or so would be crazy. Imo. 

Waller is our 100 target guy and no one else will get more than 80 in this offense. You don't pay top dollar to a WR to be second fiddle. You use that money on defense.

[NightTrainLane]

17 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The Raiders will be operating at a cap deficit next season if the base cap plummets to around $175 million. According to overthecap.com, the Raiders will be operating from just over -$6 million. Plus, the Raiders will probably want/need to re-sign some players. I premised my opening post with the idea that the Raiders should capitalize on this free agent class. In my opinion, it's one of the best in recent memory and the Raiders are ripe for making playoff runs in consecutive seasons for the first time in decades.

Yeah, that is why you cut/release the players I stated.

Keep Carr on current (GREAT) deal. It's a steal considering the deals QBs are signing these days.

That puts you at around 28-30mil in space.

Then you look at restructuring a few guys out of the top 5 earners left on the roster (Carr, Brown, Littlton, Hudson and Jackson). That brings up the Brown situation which should be it's own tread but he takes a restructure or you cut him imo.

Say you get another 30mil in space out of the restructuring.

Sitting at 60mil to resign Morrow(5milyr), Good(6milyr), Carlson(3milyr), MAYBE Agholor(4milyr).

Still leaves 40mil+ to maybe bump up Waller pay with a better deal(go from 7.5milyr to 10-12milyr), sign our draft picks(10mil) and sign a few key FA (20mil).

[Justwinning]

1 hour ago, oakdb36 said:

Well, there's Leonard Williams if the Giants are dumb enough to let him test FA. I think he's getting the tag at least.

I think he's playing on the tag already. If they tag him again, it would be one pricey move to say the least.

[Justwinning]

Pass on WR in FA. As others have said, we are a run-oriented team and we don't use our WRs as much. That could be simply be on the personnel, but I wouldn't want to risk it with that much coin. Spend it on defense. We have to get one move on that side of the ball correct at some point, right?

[NightTrainLane]

5 minutes ago, Justwinning said:

Pass on WR in FA. As others have said, we are a run-oriented team and we don't use our WRs as much. That could be simply be on the personnel, but I wouldn't want to risk it with that much coin. Spend it on defense. We have to get one move on that side of the ball correct at some point, right?

I understand the joke and the frustration but we have in Crosby, Cle, Kwik, Mullen and I would add Abrams and Arnette but they need a season or so to mature develop, i.e. learn to tackle in the nfl. When your rebuilding a defense from scratch you are gonna win some and lose some.

[Justwinning]

2 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

I understand the joke and the frustration but we have in Crosby, Cle, Kwik, Mullen and I would add Abrams and Arnette but they need a season or so to mature develop, i.e. learn to tackle in the nfl. When your rebuilding a defense from scratch you are gonna win some and lose some.

I should have specified. I was referring to Free Agent acquisitions. I maintain hope for our draft picks. Collins, Joyner, Nassib, Littleton...not so much.

[NightTrainLane]

10 minutes ago, Justwinning said:

I should have specified. I was referring to Free Agent acquisitions. I maintain hope for our draft picks. Collins, Joyner, Nassib, Littleton...not so much.

Joyner was a stopgap to teach the youth which I'm cool with since its on a good deal we can dump. Collins is on IR, can't forsee that. Littlton is playing out of position. Hopefully we can find a good SAM so he can move back to WILL. Nassib is meh.

[Justwinning]

2 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

Joyner was a stopgap to teach the youth which I'm cool with since its on a good deal we can dump. Collins is on IR, can't forsee that. Littlton is playing out of position. Hopefully we can find a good SAM so he can move back to WILL. Nassib is meh.

Joyner was signed to be one of our main contributors on defense and has underwhelmed. For that contract, he's a bust. You don't pay him the money he makes in order for him to be a stopgap. A stopgap is someone like Nevin Lawson, but I'm glad we can get out of Joyner's deal this offseason with little dead money. Collins, prior to being placed on IR, has been really bad. As for Littleton, I don't see how him being out of position causes him to make him miss tackles. It's been frustrating to watch these guys underperform. The young guys give me hope, however.

[Rich7sena]

1 hour ago, Jerry said:

What exactly is your scenario?  Who do we trade Carr to and what do we receive?  How does the draft and FA play out in your scenario to get us into the playoffs?  I want the details.

I would give up Carr plus this year's first and next year's first to the Jaguars for second overall and 34th overall.

Draft: Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson

Cut: Tyrell Williams, Lemarcus Joyner, Gabe Jackson

Priority re-sign: Booker, Denzelle Good, maybe Hankins.

Key free agents:

• One of: Godwin, Golladay, Robinson, Smith-Schuster, Marvin Jones, Corey Davis
• Leonard Williams
• Two of: Justin Simmons, John Johnson, Marcus Williams, Anthony Harris, Malik Hooker, Marcus Maye, Keanu Neal
• One of: Bud Dupree, Melvin Ingram, Matt Judon, Shaquil Barrett, Olivier Vernon, Haason Reddick, Yannick Ngakuoe

I haven't been as plugged into the games as I was in recent seasons, but this is how I would do it in a Carr trade situation.

 

[Rich7sena]

46 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

Yeah, that is why you cut/release the players I stated.

Keep Carr on current (GREAT) deal. It's a steal considering the deals QBs are signing these days.

That puts you at around 28-30mil in space.

Then you look at restructuring a few guys out of the top 5 earners left on the roster (Carr, Brown, Littlton, Hudson and Jackson). That brings up the Brown situation which should be it's own tread but he takes a restructure or you cut him imo.

Say you get another 30mil in space out of the restructuring.

Sitting at 60mil to resign Morrow(5milyr), Good(6milyr), Carlson(3milyr), MAYBE Agholor(4milyr).

Still leaves 40mil+ to maybe bump up Waller pay with a better deal(go from 7.5milyr to 10-12milyr), sign our draft picks(10mil) and sign a few key FA (20mil).

Okay, so option 1. That was the whole point of the OP.

[Rich7sena]

39 minutes ago, Justwinning said:

Pass on WR in FA. As others have said, we are a run-oriented team and we don't use our WRs as much. That could be simply be on the personnel, but I wouldn't want to risk it with that much coin. Spend it on defense. We have to get one move on that side of the ball correct at some point, right?

The problem with defensive free agents how easily they can be neutralized by the bad defensive coordinator. That said, yes, I would also like to clear room to capitalize on this potentially great safety class.

[Rich7sena]

54 minutes ago, Justwinning said:

Pass on WR in FA. As others have said, we are a run-oriented team and we don't use our WRs as much. That could be simply be on the personnel, but I wouldn't want to risk it with that much coin. Spend it on defense. We have to get one move on that side of the ball correct at some point, right?

I think it absolutely has to do with personnel. All of the wide receivers are currently unreliable (Agholor), inexperienced (Edwards), limited (Renfrow), or all three (Ruggs). Waller is the receiving core's saving grace, but the Raiders are still among the worst teams in the league when it comes to receiving talent. To add insult to injury, the Raiders' pass blocking situation has also been bad.

At a certain point, the team has to take carries off of Jacobs' plate or he's not going to last the next two seasons.

[Frankie2Gunz]

51 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I think it absolutely has to do with personnel. All of the wide receivers are currently unreliable (Agholor), inexperienced (Edwards), limited (Renfrow), or all three (Ruggs). Waller is the receiving core's saving grace, but the Raiders are still among the worst teams in the league when it comes to receiving talent. To add insult to injury, the Raiders' pass blocking situation has also been bad.

At a certain point, the team has to take carries off of Jacobs' plate or he's not going to last the next two seasons.

I 100 percent agree with this.  Our WR talent is still amongst the worst in the league and signing a reception hog like Juju would add a whole other dimension to our O.  Would he command 90 plus receptions, most likely no but the skills he would bring, combined with the attention he would garner would allow every other WR to play in their ideal position.

Juju X, Ruggs (move all over) Y/Z, NA and Renfrow predominantly in the slot and Edwards as the fill in.  I think Edwards has a lot of talent but has yet to show it on the field.  If we could get Juju for around 15 per for the next 4 years I would do that deal.  Any more than that I would most likely pass and spend that money elsewhere.  

Juju would take the heat off of Jacobs and allow Waller to feast over the middle, even more than he currently is.  I feel a move like this would really round out the O and put us in the upper tier of offenses.  

[Mr Raider]

Golladay, Godwin, Robinson JuJu, and Davis would be the only wide receivers that interest me, and it would be in that order. They are the only guys that I believe could either be a true #1 WR from day one (Golladay, Godwin, Robinson) or have enough youth/upside/displayed some form of high level play at some point in their career to believe they could still become that and would be cheaper than the others (JuJu and Davis). I think ultimately Godwin doesn't reach free agency though and I doubt Golladay does either. But the remaining guys in JuJu, Robinson, and Davis all offer something this current offense lacks. Size, possession, redzone threat. All of those guys fit the mold of what Carr loves in a WR..

All that said signing those guys kind of fit the mold of too good to pass up (assuming you can get them at a reasonable price by free agent standards). I wouldn't make a WR a priority going into the off season. I would spend almost all available resources on the defensive side of the ball. But those guys I would make an exception for to make our offense a downright elite unit IMO. If it's not one of those guys (and I go back and forth on Davis as well) I just look to draft a WR somewhere in the 2nd-4th round. Those guys make sense because they can take the offense to the next level. Someone like Marvin Jones doesnt and I would rather continue to have Waller be our #1 and continue to develop Ruggs and Edwards. 

Overall as much as I may make an exception for one of those guys I still believe using the resources we have towards improving the DL and secondary with what we have on offense besides some low end free agents and depth type draft picks, is going to make our overall team better. A WR like one of those guys could turn our offense into an elite unit, but they'll have to be without improvement to the defense. 

And obviously the answer to the Carr question is neither. I wouldn't resign him yet, I'd continue to take advantage of his cost friendly contract in comparison to other franchise QBs, and I absolutely wouldn't trade him unless we are offered a haul of 2 firsts or something. I'd look at trimming the roster of the guys without guaranteed money that aren't contributing up to expectations to give us room for free agency. And I say that because ultimately this team isn't going to reach the next level trying to buy it in free agency (I don't believe that's how sustainable contenders are built). We will have to hit on future draft picks and see the development we expect from the guys in their first 1-3 years for that to happen. Signing some low risk high reward free agents, some bargain bin depth, and signing a single higher priced free agent to fill a hole and put us over the top can always be done with some slight effort moving money around or cutting some of the guys we signed the past couple years that haven't delivered. 

Bottom line I don't make a decision on resigning a franchise QB 2 years before his contract is up and raising his cap hit and locking him up past 2-4 years (with the tags) because thats a LONG time in NFL years, and I definitely am not considering trading him all so I can be active in free agency. That's not how successful teams do things IMO.