Mock v1 - One More Shot and One Year Makeover

[DrRay11]

It’s been a long time since I have done one of these, mostly going with the wind on the Quinn and Patricia regime for what it was - arrogant and outdated. As fans tried to justify spending a good portion of our higher draft picks on either players at non-valuable positions, low-athleticism guys who you could only cross your fingers could overcome limitations, or essentially zero pass rushers, my fears came to fruition with the regime this year.

With some news of what seems to be mutual interest between Robert Saleh and the Lions, in this mock I will have Saleh becoming head coach. Alongside him at GM, I am connecting Saleh to Adam Peters of the 49ers. Their philosophies obviously should mesh and it is difficult not to admire the success the 49ers have put together under unideal circumstances. An outside possibility would be to also keep an eye on is an additional Football Ops person as SFH looks at “org chart” type changes to hopefully separate Rod Wood from any football responsibility. Other candidates for GM we know could be Ed Dodds or either of the Seahawks’ player personnel folks, Kirchner or Fitterer. I would be okay with most any of these guys.

I'd hope to retain Fraley and Coombs, but would be OK with the rest of the coaching staff hitting the road. In this mock, Stafford stays under one last chance with the option to move on after 2021 if he regresses and the team fails, meaning they should be high enough to take a QB in 2022.

For this draft, I am using TheDraftNetwork’s mock draft simulator, which admittedly gets me a bit trade happy, but I’m just using the situations presented by the simulator to try to build the best team for the long term.

For the other offseason moves / free agency department, I am using a combination of overthecap / spotrac to estimate cap impacts:

Starting cap space - estimated $15M:

Cuts:
Nick Williams (+$4.7M)
Danny Shelton (+$4M)
Christian Jones (+$2.5M)
Chase Daniel (+$2.3M)
Jesse James (+$2.1M)
Will Harris ($+0.6M)
Nick Bawden (+$0.8M)G
Geronimo Allison (+$0.8M)
Jashon Cornell (+$0.8M) (I assume he’s ruined, try to bring to PS)

Restructure Taylor Decker (about +$8M) for updated cap space of about $40M)
Restructure Trey Flowers (about +$8M) for updated cap space of about $48M)

Re-Sign:
Mike Ford - 2 years, $1M per year
David Blough - 2 years, $1M per year
Miles Killebrew - 2 years, $1M per year
Kenny Golladay (Franchise tag) - 1 year, $16M 
Jarrad Davis - 1 year, $1M per year
Bobby Price (current PS) - 2 years, vet min
Jamal Agnew, 1 year $1M per year
Matt Nelson, 1 year vet’s min
Matt Prater, 1 year, $2M

New FA Additions:
David Moore, WR (Seattle Seahawks) - 4 years, $28 million, $12M bonus (-$4M cap hit)
B.J. Goodson, OLB (Cleveland Browns) - 3 years, $15 million, $9M bonus (-$4M cap hit)
Keanu Neal, SS (Atlanta Falcons) - 3 years, $9 million, $4M bonus (-$2M cap hit)
Xavier Woods, FS (Dallas Cowboys) - 2 years, $6 million, $2M bonus (-$3M cap hit)
James O’Shaughnessy (Jacksonville Jaguars) - 1 year, $1.5M

This leaves operating cap space of around $10M remaining for draft + other moves.

Next year’s cap potential outs include Stafford, Jamie Collins, and Big V for over $30M in additional space.

Draft:

This turned out pretty interesting as I doubled up a number of positions back to back with picks a bit lumped together. The offense begins to gear up for post-Golladay and Stafford life if things don’t bounce back in 2021, and the defense gets set up for the long term.

Trade down - Lions trade their first rounder (9 in this sim) to ATL for picks 1.10 and 111 (Falcons take Zach Wilson), then trade 10 to the Bucs for 21, 53, 84 and next year’s 3rd round pick (Bucs take Trey Lance)

1.21 - Lions select Zaven Collins, MLB, Tulsa

Trade down - pick 41 for 50 and 172

2.50 - Hamilcare Rashed Jr., EDGE, Oregon State
2.53 - Carlos Basham, Jr., EDGE, Wake Forest
3.73 - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
3.84 - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

Trade up - next year’s 4th and this year’s 5th for 3.86 from Colts

3.86 - Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
4.110 - Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State
4.111 - Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina
5.149 - Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell, WR, Louisville

Priority UDFA: 
RB CJ Marable, Coastal Carolina
IOL developmental pieces

Depth Chart - Rookie / New Free Agent

Offense (24):
QB: Matthew Stafford / David Blough / Desmond Ridder
RB: D’Andre Swift / Kerryon Johnson / CJ Marable
WR: Kenny Golladay / Quintez Cephus / Jamal Agnew

TE: TJ Hockenson / James O’Shaughnessy / Hunter Bryant 

LT: Taylor Decker / Matt Nelson
LG: Jonah Jackson 
C : Frank Ragnow / Russell Bodine
RG: Joe Dahl / Logan Stenberg
RT: Tyrell Crosby / Halipoulivaati Vaitai

WR: David Moore / Shi Smith / Tutu Atwell

Defense (26):

DE:Trey Flowers / Austin Bryant
DT: Da’shawn Hand / Levi Onwuzurike
DT: John Penisini / Christian Barmore
DE:  Carlos Basham, Jr. / Hamilcar Rashed, Jr. / Julian Okwara

OLB: B.J. Goodson / Baron Browning
MLB: Zaven Collins / Jahlani Tavai
OLB: Jamie Collins / Jarrad Davis

CB: Jeff Okudah / Desmond Trufant
SS: Keanu Neal / Bobby Price / Miles Killebrew
FS: Tracy Walker / Xavier Woods / C.J. Moore
CB: Amani Oruwariye / Mike Ford
Nickel: Justin Coleman

ST (3): 

LS: Don Mulbach
K: Matt Prater
P: Jack Fox

All in all I would be pretty happy with an offseason like this, though I hoped to get another starting guard at some point mid-draft it didn't work out with the rest of the goals. Maybe we can get Romeo Okwara back on a discount and ditch Austin Bryant as well, but I couldn't make it work here with retaining Golladay and Stafford.

Edited December 7, 2020 by DrRay11

[SimbaWho]

Lot moving around!

Carlos Basham Jr. is better than a 2nd round pick. He'll work out and do great, he's going to be a 1st round pick. Idk if they'll do the offseason scrimmages this year but he's (Basham Jr.) getting some hate for not a lot of reason imo right now in the scouting world. 

Outside of that I really don't like it one bit. It's a retool vs rebuild. You didn't' trade Stafford which, I'm kind of a proponent of vs not doing cause I want a real fresh start/rebuild. I don't think Stafford terrible, just that times up, for at least us to win with him. I mention that I don't like that he's here, but in real life I understand both sides and won't be up in arms if he stays. 

The biggest reason though I don't like the mock are the names in the draft. I'm just not into any of the picks/names/guys outside of Carlos Basham Jr. I'd have a hard time coming away with a 1st round LB'er and thinking that was actually the best player available.( Just my opinion. ) If you're drafting a LB/TE in the first round to me.... they need to be boreder line hall of fame talent and that's really putting a lot on a picks shoulders that early. 

Don't love how you didn't address the Oline, but that's a personal thing. QB, Oline, DLine/Pass rush is just how I like to build a team.

Not a fan of the restructures, especially Flowers cause imo, it's a make or break season for him next year. If he can't garner 20 QB pressures and around 10 sacks he's not worth the money and you can easily move on after the year is over.  

I do like how you targeted the defensive line, and linebackers though, it's a real issue for the team. So much fresh blood would look nice.

C.J. Marable is sweet man! I'd legit draft the kid in the 6th/7th rounds right now. Kids like Giovanni Bennard. 

Also like how you didn't break the bank on any FA's or try and fix every problem knowing you'd have money next season to really make a difference. 

Lots of effort!!!

Edited December 6, 2020 by SimbaWho

[flyguy1609]

not bad i guess i could get behind that

[Sllim Pickens]

I'm with @SimbaWho in that I like the approach, don't really love the players selected.  Part of that is I am not as informed on prospects as I have been in the past but also what I do know, just doesnt get me excited.  I wouldn't mind a LB in the first though, especially late first as I feel that is right up there with our biggest needs.  I feel like having that many picks in the first few rounds would be nice (unlikely) and could go a long ways in rebuilding this D. 

[LionArkie]

27 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I'm with @SimbaWho in that I like the approach, don't really love the players selected.  Part of that is I am not as informed on prospects as I have been in the past but also what I do know, just doesnt get me excited.  I wouldn't mind a LB in the first though, especially late first as I feel that is right up there with our biggest needs.  I feel like having that many picks in the first few rounds would be nice (unlikely) and could go a long ways in rebuilding this D. 

I'm kind of liking a lb in the first if DL is not there. Since this year is weaker in DL, I don't expect to have anything there. If we are top 15/top 10, what would you think about Micah Parsons out of PSU?  I think he might be my draft crush right now outside of Lawrence and Fields.

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, LionArkie said:

I'm kind of liking a lb in the first if DL is not there. Since this year is weaker in DL, I don't expect to have anything there. If we are top 15/top 10, what would you think about Micah Parsons out of PSU?  I think he might be my draft crush right now outside of Lawrence and Fields.

I dont think we will be high enough for him.  But I'd like the pick if he was there. 

[LionArkie]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I dont think we will be high enough for him.  But I'd like the pick if he was there. 

Agreed, but if he was there I would be pissed if we passed on him. I would love to see this team have an identity at LB.

Edited December 7, 2020 by LionArkie