Patriots 2021 Free Agency

[m haynes]

4 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

I'd give up a 1st in a heartbeat.

15th pick, helllllllllll yyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeessssss

4 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

touch Michael Thomas' contract?

helllllllllll NNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Crimmage]

Given the history of QB trades he is worth a 1st.. would I give a top 15 pick for a 33 year old QB who had Megatron along with a bunch of other 1st round receivers but could only get his team to the playoffs I believe once in a decade? No... no I would not. He's probably a top 15 QB but do we have a guarantee he plans on playing another 5 years or so? It would need to be a deal for me to want him the more I have thought about it. 

 

I would rather BB have time left in his career to develop the next guy so we aren't without a coach and QB in the next 4-5 years. I wouldnt touch Thomas either, too much money and not worth the headache. 

[m haynes]

I would never judge a player  based on his team results. I don't care who he played with. You can go through history and see great players that never sniff success. EX Detroit's own Barry Sanders. Stafford age concerns me a little but in today (no touch) NFL, 40 is the new 30.

I judge a player by his ability and how he could fit within the Pats organization. 

Coaches Stafford played for. He didn't have a chance at winning. Crap coaches and a horrible ownership/ management.

Jim Schwartz

Jim Caldwell

Matt Patricia   edited later.  case closed the defense rest!!!!!! 😁

Darrell Bevell

Lastly   IMO WR are ornaments, they are useless if you don't have a tree !

WR group three players, what about the other 50 players.

PS  Megatron is the only 1st RD(drafted)  WR that played with Stafford.

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by m haynes

[LaFellSBXLIXMVP]

Stafford compared at what other QBs did at the age of 32 (before this season)

 

Passing yards – 41,205, second (Peyton Manning 41,626)

Worth noting that Stafford has played in 149 career games, 11 fewer than Manning did on his 32nd birthday.

Passing TDs – 256, third (Manning 306 and Dan Marino 290)

Completions – 3,559, first (Manning 3,468 is next)

Attempts – 5,696, first (Drew Bledsoe 5,599 is 2nd)

Interceptions – 138, 17th

He also leads the league at 4th quarters comebacks and game winning drives, Crimmage. And that shows two things: his team usually stinks that's why they are down a lot of times in the 4th therefore he got more opportunities to comeback from a deficit but it also shows he's clutch to execute the comebacks at a very good rate.

More importantly: Stafford works well with trashy receivers that aren't perfect on their routes. He'd probably get Harry dozens of millions of dollars in his next contract. Myers shows promise even tho he's getting passes from Cam. We'd need to sign a wr1 with our cap and hope one of our TEs drafted this year would develop into competent catches. This alone gets us in the post season. Not sure we'd win the division right away but we would contend until his late 30's, I'm sure.

Obviously, I'm counting on Bill to build a Great D.

[Crimmage]

I don't doubt that Stafford is a good QB, I don't believe he has had trash WR corps though. I don't have stats off the top of my head  but I remember year after year looking at their receiving talent and always believing they were better than what the Patriots were working with. They haven't ever really had a running game though, which can also inflate his throwing stats a bit given that they throw the ball A LOT.

I'm not debating if he is good, I'm more debating:

• How much longer will he be top tier for? (Is he taking care of himself to a Brady level to play into his late 30s?)
• How much longer does he want to play for? ( has he given any indication he wants to play till 38-40?)
• Is he the pick primarily because he matches up with BB's coaching timeline? If so, don't you want BB to pick and coach the next guy till he is ready to take over? 5 years from now I don't want to be without a QB and a Coach.. then you've really got nothing.. at least if BB retires and we've got a young franchise guy at QB you've got a more desirable coaching destination for someone good to continue winning. 
• Giving up pick 10-14 is too much for a 33 year old QB imo when you have so many other holes.. if it was a Tampa Bay situation and all you need is a QB of course you do it.. but even with Stafford they aren't going to be a super bowl contender for 2+ years and by that time Stafford will be in decline at age 35+

 

[ChazStandard]

On 12/23/2020 at 11:01 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Godwin strikes me as the type of FA that we'd be after but wouldn't out-bid another team for. He is really good. 

It will likely depend on the post-season. If the Bucs get rolled, then he'll be a high-tier FA. If the Bucs go on a run and win the SB, especially if Godwin has a couple of good games, he'll be a mega star and be massively overpaid by someone.

[m haynes]

2 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

. He'd probably get Harry dozens of millions of dollars in his next contract.

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Coffee just went through the nose!!!!

[LaFellSBXLIXMVP]

^^ hahaha! I guess that's too much of a hyperbole!

 

Anyways @Crimmage all valid points but what are the alternatives? I don't trust any of the QBs that'll be available to us in the draft. I feel Bill wont stay here for long if this team is competing but he's the GM so if tries the draft route for solve our QB problem then at least it means he'll be here long term because I don't see any QB in the draft leading us to contention in less than 3-4 years.

[Crimmage]

29 minutes ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

^^ hahaha! I guess that's too much of a hyperbole!

 

Anyways @Crimmage all valid points but what are the alternatives? I don't trust any of the QBs that'll be available to us in the draft. I feel Bill wont stay here for long if this team is competing but he's the GM so if tries the draft route for solve our QB problem then at least it means he'll be here long term because I don't see any QB in the draft leading us to contention in less than 3-4 years.

If BB doesn't retire this year, then I think he knows he is in for a rebuild and the absolute minimum for being a championship contender is 3-4 years. Being in a super bowl in 3 years would be a HUGE win for the franchise.. look at the 49ers, wasn't it well over a decade for them to get back? BB also wants be the all time winningest coach so I believe he needs something like 4-5 winning seasons to get there as well.. 5 years is a realistic window for the remainder of his career imo. 

IMO you need to build a team around the quarterback because no matter what you aren't going to have a top 5 quarterback again anytime soon. Look at the 49ers once again.. they have good WR who are explosive after the catch, solid RBs and a solid OL.. you can put a good QB in that mix ( Jimmy) and get to a super bowl. Greatness is the difference between getting there and actually winning it. Without a top 10 QB, you build a receiving group which is explosive after the catch who will allow your short passing game to become BIG plays. 

This team can be a playoff team again next season.. but they need to add a new qb, wr, te, DL, ILB, potentially corner to get there. 

I would do the following to get this team to be a playoff team again: 

• Trade a 4th rounder for Gardner Minshew ( young, accurate, not a strong arm or great runner but will manage the game most of the time and put up a big game ever now and then.. if BB coaches him up to be a pro bowler great.. if not I think he's a more durable Jimmy G)
• Sign a WR in free agency ( not a #1 BB wont spend that kind of money.. but someone with speed and hopefully a notch above Byrd.. id also be cool with bringing Byrd back because he could take another step forward with an actual QB) 
• Sign a Veteran TE to catch and help the young guys ( A Jimmy Graham type.. someone with experience, wont break the bank but can still at minimum be a redzone threat which was a huge issue this year) 
• Draft a QB in the first two rounds ( Trey Lance / Trask / whoever BB thinks he can develop into a pro bowl level player) and sit them for 1-2 seasons .. i'm also 100% ok with double dipping at QB if BB sees another developmental guy he likes. 
• Draft a top tier WR in the first two rounds, someone who is FAST and EXPLOSIVE because you've already got 2 slower possession guys in Meyers / Harry ( Rondale Moore / Chris Olave / Toney/ etc.)
• Double Dip WR in the 3rd / 4th with someone who is explosive after the catch ( this draft is once again deep at WR.. you need to get 2 imo)
• Take a flyer on a receiving TE to develop in case one of the two from last season don't pan out ( I don't trust Keene) 
• Rest of the draft go defense ( LB/ DL / CB) 
• Spent 75% of your Free Agent money on the defense (LB / DL / CB)

BB has stated there will be major changes this off season.. he has a lot of money to spend and can def make this a playoff team again.. he just needs to put effort into explosiveness on offense and coaching on defense.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Crimmage

[1ForTheThumb]

We need to add at least two WR's in free agency. We have the cap space ammo to do so in a off-season where, presumably, spending will be down. I also get the feeling Belichick's ego will get to him this off season and he's going to go all in. Especially with Brady set to make another playoff run elsewhere. 

One thing we'll all be closely monitoring is Joe Thuney. I would think they plan to tag and trade him? I would be surprised if they give him a lucrative deal; that'd be a lot of money tied up in two interior OL, with Mason's deal. Not the best use of capital from a team building standpoint.  But I also think they could get more than a comp pick for him. 

I probably wouldn't pay Andrews either, but I feel like they could work out something reasonable with him and that he'd want to stay.

I don't think there will be a huge market for James White, but if there is, they should have no problem letting him walk.

Bring back Guy. 

1st RD tender on JC Jackson.

Everything else I'm indifferent on. Going to be a busy off-season, can't say I've been this excited for one in a long time. Last year we had the Brady story line and the inevitable break up hanging over our heads. This off-season feels like it has a blank slate and I'm pumped for it.

[Hunter2_1]

BB mentioned something recently. He said 'this team will look very different to next years', or something along them lines.

Remember in 06 when we didn't have enough - 07 he loaded up 

[Crimmage]

Unfortunately, I don't believe he means loading up when he speaks about the team looking very different next season. I think he's speaking about veterans and 3rd-4th year players who are under performing. It sure seems like we are going to see a massive youth movement this offseason. I think BB will attempt to keep as many veterans on the defense as possible, but the offense is going to go full on college team. 

I would need to look at the numbers but I feel like off the top of my head offensive players get paid more on average to defensive players in free agency.. especially with how many WR are going to be free agents.. those guys are going to get huge money. Load up in the draft on offense.. load up on defense with free agents/cap cuts ( preferably under 30) and we could have 30-40% of the roster be all new guys next season. 

Guys who could be gone

• Cam Newton
• James White ( I think he goes to Florida to be near his mom)
• Joe Thuney ( gets $$$)
• Rex Burkhead (too injured and likely wont be available to start season anyway)
• Damiere Byrd ( didn't do enough.. and I think a team will overpay)
• Cannon ( retire) 
• Izzo ( bad) 
• Brian Hoyer ( no use for him anymore)
• Jarret Stidham ( I doubt he makes it through Camp)
• Julien Edelman ( retire or traded)
• Donte Moncrief ( he was just a body this season because Gunnar couldn't handle kickoffs)
• Matt Lacosse ( sucked, they will find another vet)
• Gunnar -> Always 50/50 if he stays.. he has some good punt returns but he is easily replaceable 

That's something like 25% of the roster off the top of my head .. not even including the defense.. this team is certainly going to look SUPER different next season... I just have a feeling we will see a lot of young guys taking those spots. Patriots have 10 picks in the upcoming draft and we can almost guarantee they trade back a few times to grab a few more. 

[m haynes]

17 hours ago, Crimmage said:

Unfortunately, I don't believe he means loading up when he speaks about the team looking very different next season. I think he's speaking about veterans and 3rd-4th year players who are under performing. It sure seems like we are going to see a massive youth movement this offseason. I think BB will attempt to keep as many veterans on the defense as possible, but the offense is going to go full on college team. 

I would need to look at the numbers but I feel like off the top of my head offensive players get paid more on average to defensive players in free agency.. especially with how many WR are going to be free agents.. those guys are going to get huge money. Load up in the draft on offense.. load up on defense with free agents/cap cuts ( preferably under 30) and we could have 30-40% of the roster be all new guys next season. 

Guys who could be gone

• Cam Newton
• James White ( I think he goes to Florida to be near his mom)
• Joe Thuney ( gets $$$)
• Rex Burkhead (too injured and likely wont be available to start season anyway)
• Damiere Byrd ( didn't do enough.. and I think a team will overpay)
• Cannon ( retire) 
• Izzo ( bad) 
• Brian Hoyer ( no use for him anymore)
• Jarret Stidham ( I doubt he makes it through Camp)
• Julien Edelman ( retire or traded)
• Donte Moncrief ( he was just a body this season because Gunnar couldn't handle kickoffs)
• Matt Lacosse ( sucked, they will find another vet)
• Gunnar -> Always 50/50 if he stays.. he has some good punt returns but he is easily replaceable 

That's something like 25% of the roster off the top of my head .. not even including the defense.. this team is certainly going to look SUPER different next season... I just have a feeling we will see a lot of young guys taking those spots. Patriots have 10 picks in the upcoming draft and we can almost guarantee they trade back a few times to grab a few more. 

Nick Caserio leaving you are hired!😄 

I believe that's the formula you need but its hard to tell with BB and the dreaded offensive system and being ready to play. I say go offense in the draft and let play and make mistakes. You have to do this with the cap. BB can't do it the same way he did with Brady. He doesn't have the luxury without a future QB on board.

Last IMO Moncrief and Gunner will be back. I'm not sure but I don't think there salaries count towards the cap. BB loves these type of players! Fill a role for free!

[Crimmage]

40%+ of this team will be different next season.. probably 30% in the offseason then another 10% cut in camp ( Gunnars / Moncriefs/etc.)

Especially when it comes to WR.. the more I research this draft I think you've got a bunch of guys who could come in and be effective within their 1st/2nd seasons in the league. One early guy and one mid round guy minimum.. the more talent you get the more pressure you put on the guys you currently have to either get better quick or be shipped out of here. Lots of guys with speed as their primary attributes which is exactly what this team needs. 

• Devonta Smith
• JaMarr Chase
• Jaylen Waddle
• Rondale Moore
• Chris Olave
• Rashod Bateman
• Terrace Marshal Jr
• Tylan Wallace
• Kadarius Toney

That's not a list of all the WR's believed to be "good" in this class.. that's all the WR's who are believed to have 1st round grades by a lot of people... that's insane! Even with a mid second round pick you could be looking at a guy who turns into a #1 receiver and would have been drafted mid 1st round in another draft. This isn't counting another grouping of guys who have the pure talent but haven't put it all together / were at small schools either.. This will be a make or break offseason for Harry as well.. sign a guy in Free Agency + draft a couple guys and he will be fighting for a roster spot in training camp. Either he turns into a big possession guy to go along with some speedsters or he gets traded / cut. 

I also predict that Asiasi is going to have a nice breakout second year.. something around 700 yards. A full offseason and assuming a QB that can throw.. especially a young guy is going to want to throw to their safety blanket TE and slot guy. Asiasi can be the primary receiving TE but I'd love another TE who can be a "good" receiver but also a hell of a blocker to go along with our running game.

Meyers is going to be the slot guy going forward, barring something surprising happening. He can easily be an 80+ catch guy next season ( especially with a couple other receiving threats around him). He isn't fast.. but he knows how to get open and that's really all you need.. he's a reliable 3rd down guy.. and with a big play threat you could see him perform even better. 

 

 

[m haynes]

This is not what I would do but IMO Pats won't pick a WR til the 3rd RD but most likely 4th.

These are the WR that will be there IMO.  I'm a happy camper if we take two.

Terrace Marshal Jr

Tylan Wallace

Elijah Moore

Marquez Stevenson

Pats are looking at OL, S, or Edge, DL  based on the talent in this draft. I love the safeties on the board, not so much DL or Edge. DL not what I'm looking for, they more rushers and forget Edge we have what 50 on the roaster.