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Week 14: Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) @ Miami Dolphins (8-4)


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I'm really giddy to still be playing meaningful football at this point in the season but this week we face easily our biggest challenge in a stretch of four tough games that will determine our fate. Sitting at 8-4, the way the AFC is, we'll need to realistically win two of them to have a decent shot to make the playoffs. The Chiefs, 11-1, come in as likely the best team in the NFL, and are still playing hard in the hopes of unseating the Steelers for the number one seed.

There's some reason for hope in this game, though - the Chiefs have been dealing with offensive line issues, which have limited their offensive production in the last couple weeks. We should be able to get good pressure on Mahomes, and if we have one strength on the defensive side of the ball, it's our terrific secondary who should be able to match up well versus their WRs. The Chiefs will definitely have their scoring drives... we may be able to limit Mahomes, but there's no stopping him. Moreover, Travis Kelce will be a huge matchup issue versus our horrible Linebacker corp; it would probably be best if we put one of our DBs on him at all times. Finally, we suck versus the run. While Le'Veon Bell doesn't scare me as much, Edwards-Helaire will likely be back and ready to resume his lead back role, and he is definitely the type of dynamic back that have been burning the Dolphins this season in the running game.

Offensively, Tua will be tasked with going point to point with the Mahomes & the Chiefs. If he plays like he did in the 2nd half versus the Bengals or as he did versus the Cardinals, this may actually be possible. Most notably, the Chiefs have struggled to rush opposing passers this season - they have just one sack in the last three games, so Tua should have more time than he's used to in this matchup. The Chiefs have also had issues defending against the run this season so this may be a good opportunity to get Gaskin going again. Mike Gesicki should hopefully provide matchup issues as well, as he continues to emerge as Tua's favorite target.  I'm cautiously optimistic that our offense should be able to surprise people in this matchup.

 

The line is Kansas City -7.5 but in my mind this game is a fair bit closer than that, especially in Miami. I don't have high expectations to win this game (although I think we might have a chance), but I don't think we'll be dismantled, either. Kansas City really isn't similar to any of the teams we've struggled with this season.

 

My prediction...

Kansas City 27

Miami 23

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We don't have anyone with the speed to keep up with Hill but our guys are big and do a good job of jamming receivers at the line. The Chiefs are going to get theirs against any defense, its just a matter of getting to Mahomes as quickly as possible and not letting him scramble or letting plays develop. Its going to be a big test on Tua and the offense as they'll have to keep up with Mahomes and co. 

 

KC - 34

Miami - 26

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8 minutes ago, Tetsujin said:

Put Rowe on Kelce. Put X on the #2 WR with no help. Put BJ on Hill with McCain help over the top of Hill.

I think X has earned the right to face off against opposing #1s. He's a top tier jamming CB which is what we need to stop Hill, anyway.

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22 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I think X has earned the right to face off against opposing #1s. He's a top tier jamming CB which is what we need to stop Hill, anyway.

Jones has more speed and I don’t like X’s gambling style vs Hill. 

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Mahomes is maddening because it's the worst of both worlds...strong accurate arm but fast legs too so he can easily bust out first-down runs anytime the receivers are covered. Like the Cardinals game when the Fins covered everyone and still gave up a 20-yd QB run, grrrr. 

It's mid-December though and every team is tired, battered and bruised. Still think KC wins tho. 

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1 hour ago, FinSting said:

Mahomes is maddening because it's the worst of both worlds...strong accurate arm but fast legs too so he can easily bust out first-down runs anytime the receivers are covered. Like the Cardinals game when the Fins covered everyone and still gave up a 20-yd QB run, grrrr. 

We need to put a spy on him, like Baker.

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